Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

Hans, my B-29s have handled perhaps 15 mine-sowing missions thus far in the game. I don't think any have suffered damage of any kind - to flak, balloons or enemy CAP. I think the mine-laying missions are borked, both from the Allied perspective and the Japanese perspective. Pretty much nothing happens except the stockpile of mines is reduced.

[Canoerebel]

12/22/44

L-Day+1: Erik orders many big fighter sweeps of the hex SE of Wakkanai. I don't have any LRCAP specifically designated to cover that target, but carrier fighers set to range 3 LRCAP respond.

This is the opening clash and is deceptively favorable to the Allies. Many, many sweeps are to follow, basically all of them at a ratio decisively unfavorable to the Allies.

I don't know how many fighters I lost - the actual results typically seem to exceed the reported results by a tremendous amount - but I'd guess 100 or more. Erik doesn't get away scott-free. He'll lose a decent number of good fighters. Overall, though, I need to carefully consider what's going on. I can't afford to suffer huge attrition to my naval fighter corps.

And yet, the carrier fighters are needed to protect the combat ships that are patrolling Wakkanai.

I have some ideas.

One of the scary things about these altercations is that Erik's sweeps will wear out my pool of available LRCAP fighters so that his strike aircraft will have a pretty good shot at my ships...if he set them that way. Stay tuned.

I'll post the total air loss screen later.

[Canoerebel]

12/22/44

L-Day+1: This is the raid that spoiled the nifty para-seaborne assault of the vacant hex two hexes south of Wakkanai.

[Canoerebel]

12/22/44

L-Day+1: Uh oh. Erik does have his strike aircraft set to naval strike with sufficient range. This is the first inbound mission to Wakkanai, which encounters minimal Allied LRCAP.

Most of my big ships have already withdrawn from Wakkanai, but at least two CAs (Cumberland and Pensacola) are present in the hex, along with a vast amount of smaller (but useful) amphibious ships.

[Canoerebel]

12/22/44

L-Day+1: Naked and afraid. I'm resigned to losing stuff and can afford to do so within reason, but I don't want to lose CAs (or Fletchers, for that matter).

[Canoerebel]

12/22/44

L-Day+1: The third unopposed enemy attack against forces including Allied CAs. So far, the Japanese are 0-3. I don't know how. Usually in an environment like thie one, the carnage is utter.

[Canoerebel]

12/22/44

L-Day+1: This raid goes after LSMs. The preceding raid, similarly configured, went after a PF TF at Wakkanai. The Allied cruisers still haven't been hit.

[Canoerebel]

12/22/44

L-Day+1: The first Allied air raid of the day - well-escorted strike aircraft from Shikuka score modestly. Not that bad, really, considering previous results.

Similar raids will follow with meager results. And the 4EB from Shikuka won't do anything worth writing about.

I'll have to rethink these missions too. I'll continue bombing in some form or fashion but will need to transfer many fighters to CAP/LRCAP duties.

Erik may also think I've drawn down Shikuka enough to warrant an all-out assault. Shikuka remains very strong, but I may bring in additional fighters from Ketoi and even the Aleutians.

Some new AA came in with the ingressing fleet. Those units are heading to Toyohara.

[Canoerebel]

12/22/44

L-Day+1: The only USN offensive mission naval-strike mission flown today. The important thing is that Erik will note the strike at range 5 and may work out CAP-trap possibilities. So I'll have to think and adjust.

[Canoerebel]

12/22/44

L-Day+1: Allied LRCAP recovers sufficiently during the afternoon phase to tear up this enemy strike package. Allied DDs are tough targets, which is probably the recipe I'll employ at Wakkanai tomorrow.

[Canoerebel]

12/22/44

L-Day+1: Zero escorts sacrifice themselves so that strike aircraft get through and sink a handful of useful ships. But CA Pensacola again manages to avoid taking damage. And the number of Zeros downed is encouraging.

[RangerJoe]

Maybe the weather affected his airstrikes. Moderate rain at Bihoro while there were Thunderstorms at Wakkanai.

Can you risk subs laying minefields? They go in and out and you can do so between the bases.

If you sweep Wakkanai, will your sweepers met his in one big melee? Also if he has general CAP over an area and not specific to a hex, try sweeping a hex outside of his base, maybe with your units there, so you will have the advantage of surprise, i.e. no defensive radar.

[JohnDillworth]

https://youtu.be/9VI-M9Yw-28
This reminds me of the Hagler-Hearns fight. Absolute brawl that was unsustainable for 15 rounds so both fighters tried to end it early.

[Canoerebel]

12/22/44

L-Day+1: The fighting at Wakkanai returns very good news for the Allies, overall. Erik will have to work frantically to try to save the base.

He'll do so and I'll take heavy losses in the process. Can I achieve my goal of making his losses unacceptably heavy?

On this day, the losses were fairly even on the sea and in the air, I'd say. Overall, though, this was a very fine day, given the developments on the ground and the fact that the Allies have ended the L-Day landings phase with light losses at sea.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Maybe the weather affected his airstrikes. Moderate rain at Bihoro while there were Thunderstorms at Wakkanai.

Can you risk subs laying minefields? They go in and out and you can do so between the bases.

If you sweep Wakkanai, will your sweepers met his in one big melee? Also if he has general CAP over an area and not specific to a hex, try sweeping a hex outside of his base, maybe with your units there, so you will have the advantage of surprise, i.e. no defensive radar.

USN subs are involved in minelaying missions - the first, today, targeted one of the narrow passage hexes west of Ominato.

[Canoerebel]

12/22/44

Uruppu: Japanese opposition is collapsing quicker than expected. This will allow me to continue switching prep on units, including potential reinforcements for Wakkanai. There is a chance Wakkanai could fall in a week or two, before enemy reinforcements can arrive in strength, but there's also a chance this could drag out forever.

As part of the overall evaluation process, this op triggered a change in plans for elsewhere. I am unlikely to open up a second front at Iwo and points west, as I had previously planned and prepped. I think it much preferable to concentrate logistics and attacks from the northern vector. If I do take Wakkanai, that opens up avenues of attack on either side of Japan, including Korea and Manchuria.

So some units at Pearl are going to move to SoPac and SWPac and Oz to bolser the meager reserves in place. Some of the big divisions prepping for Iwo will divert to the Hokkaido/Sikhalin area to help with that cause. I'm still considering Marcus Island.

[Canoerebel]

12/22/44

L-Day+1: Air losses heavy for both sides. Carrier fighters losses on this scale are very troublesome, so I'll see if I can come up with a clever solution that still allows me to protect shipping.

I'm anticipating that Erik will throw everything into the fray, inflicting meaningful casualties at a high cost to his air corps. This will be the boxing match aspect that John Dillworth is alluding to, I think.

Who gives out first? That's a serious question that gives me pause.

[Canoerebel]

12/22/44

L-Day+1: A clean map to provide some perspective. The white circles indicate Allied mines, place by subs or B-29s. More missions are underway.

[Canoerebel]

12/22/44

L-Day+1: Today the Allies lost a DD, APA and DE along with a score of LST, LCI, YMS and other useful but small ships.

The Japanese haven't lost any large ships, but over two days have lost (confirmed) 14 MTB and 13 SSX, small ships capable of inflicting harm. These, coming after the losses during the Seige of Shikuka, are meaningful.

Overall, I'd characterize Allied ship losses as very light to this point.

[Canoerebel]

12/22/44

L-Day+1: The move by this tank destroyer unit could potentially change the outcome of this campaign. Barring attack by enemy bombers tomorrow, this unit should cross the hex side to enter Wakkanai. This will allow Allied units to move back and forth. I expect to move an Allied division or more into the hex S of Wakkanai if it appears large enemy reinforcements will arrive before Wakkanai is taken.

I doubt Erik is aware of this little stratagem, else he'd have certainly bombed this hex today.