Allied Naval Command.
(1) RN Captain "Johnnie" Walker is head of Allied Convoy Routing and Protection (department) within the Allied Naval Command.
(2) His analysis team is headed by USN Lt. Commander Smiley.
(3) Cpt Walker instructs Lt. Commander Smiley to verify and coordinate with other relevant commands the allied plans for the CW to take a combine and send (replacement) supply CPs into the East Med & Arabian Sea.
(4) Lt. Commander Smiley through due diligence uncovers a potentially fatal flaw in this plan. One that could not only set the Western Allies back but cost them the war!
(5) At issue with the proposed plan is guaranteeing supply to all allied forces in Italy & the Balkans if the turn should continue (40% chance).
(6) Smiley's team estimates that if the turn continues and Jerry takes a combine, that there's a 7.5% chance that German U-boats & Subs could break supply to allied forces in Italy & the Balkans.
(7) With a 60% chance of the turn ending (assuming Japan passes), those forces would be isolated and could not be reorg (much less oiled).
(8) Smiley's analysis shows that to break supply that Jerry would need to cut supply through the (a) East Med AND (b) either Cape St. Vincent or the West Med.
(9) Assuming (only) replacement of a CP in the East Med and Arabian Sea (and the turn continuing of course), Jerry as an estimated (a) 28% chance of breaking supply through the East Med, (b) 25% through CSV, 2% through the West Med.
(10) Given that (a) & (b) must occur this gives the overall 7.5% of breaking supply to Italy & the Balkans GIVEN the turn continues & Germany takes a combine.
(11) Given the absolute that the CW will NOT be allowed to take a naval (capture of Rome is just too critical); but at most a combine, Lt. Smiley recommends delaying replacing supply CPs in the East Med & Arabian Sea.
(12) And instead, proposes a plan to 99.9% guarantees (a) supply through EOT to allied forces in Italy & the Balkans, which will allow them to be reorg & be oiled, (b) potentially brings much needed reinforcements to allied forces in northern Italy (specifically La Spezia) during RTB and (c) replaces "some" of the 7 loss/aborted CPs in the CSV and loss production.
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(13) MTO Command is shook to the core over Lt Commander Smiley's findings over MTO supply vulnerabilities.
(14) However; they are relieve and fully endorse Smiley's recommendations that not only eliminate the supply vulnerabilities, but possibly brings in reinforcements to northern Italy (specifically La Spezia) currently held by a disorganized USA tank corps.
Combine Chiefs of Staff.
(15) Lt Commander Smiley is given a high priority flight to London to brief Admiral Cunningham, RN on the supply vulnerability.
(16) As a result the following two war directives are closed and two new war directives are written.
(17) Lt Commander Smiley's recommendations are accepted in full and allied actions (specifically Free French) are modified accordingly.
(18) Free France will now take a combine (vs land). CW & USA are both still taking a combine. USSR & China are both still taking a land.
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