Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[USSAmerica]

Fingers (and toes) are crossed for you, John!  [:)]

[Prydwen]

Best of luck to you.

~IAM

[John 3rd]

Thanks guys.

Here is the current screenshot of India.

No real developments with me just a bunch of talking with family and attorney. Should know what we are doing by middle of next week.

ANYWAY...

The Fleet has, more-or-less, reached Christmas Island with out any more serious SS interference. Why Dan hasn't moved out to destroy my unescorted, spread out CVs I will never know and won't complain about. Figure by Dec 1st I will have the Fleet refueled at Soerabaja and then we shall move to Palau and then on to Marcus.

There is an invasion force east of the Philippines. Found it by having one of my supply convoys get nailed on the 23rd. Luckily I'd been reconned the previous days and I separated 8 TK out full of oil and sent them ahead. It worked and they weren't hurt at all. The strikes hurt the remainder of the Convoy where I lost 14 AK and 6 MSW.

[John 3rd]

We got two rounds in today and not too much happened. 

There are about 98 TF in one hex north of Aparri.  They are just sitting there.  Dan is probably rolling the dice and trying to decide if 350,000 men is ENOUGH to take a hex holding 20,000 starving troops!  [:D][:@][:D]  Shouldn't say that but he has sooooooo much firepower right now I don't understand why he doesn't simply bull his way forward.

Have another convoy working to run the path to Nagasaki.  Think the one that got nailed simply had the misfortune to come within range of this Invasion Force.  Noticed that my HI Stockpile is now over 500,000!  Wow.  Thanks to Michael and Damian I have 2 months of stuff stockpiled for when everything simply stops.

In India I capture Poona just outside of Bombay.  The town had 10,000 supply so that helps keep the momentum going.  There are 4 units there as I saw previously.  I will have 4 Inf Div, an Eng Regiment, and TK Div investing the city in about 2 days.  We shall see what happens there.  REALLY want the town.

Even with the seas 85% Dan's, I am really keepong up the SS casualties.  Have sunk 3 SS in as many days with the total at 7 for the month.  If I can bag one more then I tie my record of eight from last month.  At this point I will break 100 SS sinkings by January 1, 1945!  That isn't half bad.

[John 3rd]

For no known reason to me it appears that Dan is landing at Takao and intends to take Formosa. OK.

[tocaff]

That's exactly what we all try to do in PBEM, do things that our opponents don't expect or understand why.  I'm sure that Dan can & will give you more than a few reasons as to why he did what he did in the game once it ends.  As a matter of fact I'm sure that you've surprised and or confused him on more than one occasion.  That's why PBEM is the only way to play the game.

[John 3rd]

Tocaff you are correct with that comment.  As they say is Star Trek:  IDIC!

Takao
I don't think the Allies liked this round with their landing at Takao.  As expected it is massive!  I've identified:  6 Inf Div (2 Marine), 3 RCT, 8 Artillery, 1 Engineer, and 1 TK.  There is probably half again that floating as a reserve.  His initial Invasion Force totals 2605 AS to my 975.  Hope he thinks to attack quickly because tomorrow I will gain 1,000 AS with another 500 arriving the day after that.  This could be itneresting to watch.  Size 9 Forts with about 2,500 AS versus a massed Invasion Force.

As to the landings themselves the Allies definitely had some issues with their Minesweeping.  Unlike my Opponent I am limiting my mining to Port Size +1,000 mines.  A port Sz-4 could have 5,000 mines.  As is Takao had about 3,500 and they caused some serious issues!  There were 21 ships hit by mines and several of note.  CA Baltimore took two Mines, CL St. Louis blundered into a line of them and hit FOUR ([:D]), CA Wichita took one, and 2 DDs each hit one.  DD Harrison sank trying to help the stricken St. Louis.  Other sinkings for the day include 2 MSW, 1 LCI, and 3 LSM.

There are not one but two CD units present in the hex and they did quite well hitting cruisers and transports.  The Fortress sports 9 10" Guns and they did some serious damage.  Allied bombardment completely MISSED and my CD did nicely.

Counter Moves  
I've already stated the troop movement.  Should note that I am leaving support units and one Infantry Unit at Taichu and the other Formosa city.

His shipping is spread out and with the damage taken this turn there will be stragglers trying to get to Hong Kong.  We'll see if we can do something about that.  I move about 400 planes (50% Kamikazes) into Aparri and Lingayen to augment the 150 already there.  They have enough Fighters that they might be able to get through.  Would prefer to nail stragglers but knowing how this game works I am CERTAIN they will attack the hex with the most Allied Fighters in it!  Also move a pair of Kamikaze into the Formosa AF to see if I can get a heavy Allied bomber response against them instead of the northern Philippines.

Downfall
This landing takes care of any concerns I had about whether or not it was stupid launching my desperation move into India.  By NOT landing in Java or the Philippines, Dan showed that the 7 major Divsions would have been left behind and would have been of no use.  None of the units I pulled came from Okinawa or Formosa.  This makes Downfall a bit easier to watch.  Anything gained in Allied casualties/victory points there is more then they would have gained by sitting out the rest of the war doing nothing.  YES--I know that I will lose them but at least they are fighting!

Kaigun
Most of the Fleet is finally getting fuel and will concentrate in Bali before moving to Palau to re-equip.  I have 28,000 supply there placed there for the possibility of the Fleet arriving and needing aircraft.  Will do a Fleet re-organization at that point and move on out to Marcus for a raid into the Central/Northern Pacific.

[flaggelant]

looks like a bloody landing site to me
 
how big a chance would you give for dan moving the rest of his fleet to another neighbour hex, pinning your units with fragments at takao
and so only fighting "1 unit" and gaining a better beachhead?
depends a little on his prepping for the location, but Dan did it without much prepping for a specific location at other times.
 
and on kamikaze, what planes do you use?
only older/outdated models, or anything that comes around (selecting on XP)?
just wondering about your approach since i havent been in a kamikaze-using situation in my games
 
 
 
 
 

[John 3rd]

It is the possibility of him moving his landing that has me keeping about 200 AS in each of other hexes.  The roads are such that movement is pretty fast so I can shuffle the troops pretty decently.  We shall see what happens.  All three locations are Fort-9 AND have at least 1 CD unit in it so a quick landing will be very costly.

As to Kamikaze, I use anything.  The Howe was crushed under Nicks and Randy's.  I've converted Fighter units, Betty units, and some IJA bomber units.  The Betty and Helen get actual penetration when they crash so that seems to be pretty decent.  This attack may feature 2 Daitai of Betty 2E carrying those piloted missiles.  One or two hits from those can put the big hurt on any warship.

I didn't shift to Kamikazes in force until recently and always combine them with real strikes by highly experienced attack units.  To split Allied CAP I send at least 1 Kami unit in at 1000 Ft and another at 30,000+ Ft.  The real attack planes fly somewhere in the middle.  At least 2-4 Daitai or Sentai of Fighters fly with them to try to give them a chance of surviving until their attack.
  

[John 3rd]

November 28, 1944
Combat Report

Takao
As hoped the Allies launch a Shock Attack against the Japanese position.  As planned the AS rose from just over 900 to 1,800 as three Inf Div arrive to bolster the defense.  The American Shock Attack just barely scores a 1-1 result (2650--2484) but it does lower Forts to 8.  The casualties are:

Japan  937 Cas 64 Guns
Allies   3,487 Cas 53 Guns 46 Vehicles

The veteran 1st Inf Div will arrive tomorrow with an Engineering Reg to raise the AS to about 2,300.  We shall see how long it takes for the Allies to blast through that.

Aparri
Does anyone know if AE is going to put into effect any form of initiative system for air attacks versus base launches? 

I truly hate how ANY LBA attack always attacks an AF and catches the planes on the ground.  I had 27 Fighters on CAP that met 12 Fighters, 36 4EB and 49 B-25.  My CAP did well shooting down over a dozen planes but I lost 30 planes on the ground and NOTHING flew.  HATE THAT...

Bombay
The City is attacked by 4 Inf Div and an Engineering Regiment.  The Defenders (due to fantastically good planning on Dan's part) are 2 District Brigades, a Chinese Corps (WHY is it here??), 2 Brit BF, and the Bombay BF.  In a pleasant surpirse my assault lowers the Forts to 8 but the odds don't look good as my AS score was only 219 to his 1,077.  SINKING FEELING...  I will add 2 TK DIv and another Engineering Reg to the next assault and we'll see if this is possible.

SS Action
Forgot to mention that I tied my personal best with an 8th SS sinking this month.  SS Spearfish was sunk by PC/PG escorting the AP/AK returning home from India.

Kaigun
The Fleet has survived and is either at Bali or Soerabaja.  They will get a couple of days R&R and then move to Palau.

[John 3rd]

Combat Report
November 29, 1944

Takao
The Allies have 3 TF landing troops and supplies currently.  The 1st Inf Div arrived so I am now at peak strength.  I predict holding the hex until Dec 15th.  When it is obvious that the hex is lost, I will fallback to the middle base and then to the north one.

Batan
I have a large strike go in to hit an AK TF at Batan.  The force of 42 F, 56 TB, and 11 B run up against 44 Fighters.  It sucks.  The Japanese lose 38 F, 32 TB, and 7 B for only 4 F and hitting 4 AK with bombs or Torps.

Nanchang
The Allies attack again and get another 0-1.  Their assault odds get even worse with the AS score being 1776 (A) to 7111 (J) so this is encouraging; however my Forts DROP to 7.  Does anyone understand with the odds being like this WHY my Forts are falling?  It is rather frustrating to know I have the ground advantage but my Forts are coming down.  Any ideas how to stop or slow this?

ASW TF
The Japanese hit SS Skate and put it on fire.  I want a NINTH SS for the month for a new record but only have one more day to do so.  Spotted 3 SS between Davao and Palau this turn and vector 4 ASW TF into the hexes. 

[anarchyintheuk]

I assume it's combat engineers. Same reason the IJA has success early on w/ 0-1 attacks against fortified positions.

[USSAmerica]

Indeed, there must be combat engineers at work in Nanchang. 

[Nemo121]

Attacks on bases don't necessarily catch the planes on the ground. I have, many times, hit a base causing zero losses on the ground while the airplanes from that base are off flying another strike. I think the certainty exists only in your eyes.
 
As to forts: He has lots of engineers along and, over time, they will help the forts come down. WHat you need to do is Shock Attack him the day AFTER he gets a 0:1... On the day after he gets a 0:1 his effectiveness will only be 40% of what it was and that might allow you to really put the frighteners on him. One well-timed Shock Attack in such a situation can turn a landing into an abysmal defeat. I have done it several times and usually it has ended with the entire attacking army surrendering a short while later.

If you judge it wrong though then he continues to attack until your forts are gone and YOUR entire army gets wiped out. It is a fine line to judge.

[John 3rd]

Nemo I will give that a try with his next attack.  There are two more Inf Div moving in so I will keep the 0-1 and will PUNCH him the turn after that!

[Nemo121]

If you are going to attack then take your planes ( except for kamis ) off naval attack missions and set everything to ground attack his forces on the landing beaches. Even if it only adds another 20% disruption to his two biggest units thats going to help. You need to maximise your chances.
 
THIS sort of operation is where I think you should have committed the forces which are dying in a minor distraction in India. Here you could have the opportunity to crush a 2000+ AV invasion and THAT would set the Allies back months - far more than your Indian venture is going to - at much less cost than the Indian venture.

Still the die is cast and this is your best option at this time.
 
What is the terrain in the hex? It sounds like it is clear... If it is then your chances with a counter-attack are much higher than if it is mountainous or wooded.

[John 3rd]

Nemo---Your assertion is bogus.  The troops in India could do NOTHING here.  They would be trapped on either the Philippines or Java as I said earlier.
  

[Nemo121]

Sorry JOhn but with the ships you burned in India you could have moved them from Java or the Phillipines ( hell even air transport could have moved lots of them if you were concerted enough ).

It is your game and your choice and that's fine but I amn't going to pretend that options which were available weren't.

Even if they were in the Phillipines now they could still be being flown into Formosa to bolster the bases which aren't invaded and help them hold/bolster the forces holding at the beachead. I have flown entire divisions in 2 days late-war with Japan's transport arm. Surely an additional 900 AV ( 2- 3 divisions ) within a week would be pretty welcome?

So, I don't accept they'd be trapped and I don't accept they'd be unable to help.

[John 3rd]

Dan has 30-40 Fighters flying LR CAP over all three of the Formosa Bases for the last 7-10 days.  It was only a few days ago I found out where the landing would be.  My Transports would have been slaughtered to only land a thousand or so troops.

His CVs have a CAP of over 400 Fighters with Lord Knows how many strike aircraft.  They would have had a field day with slow AP-AK.  I would have lost all the troops at sea. They would have never survided the trip to Formosa let alone help in the fight.

We must agree to disagree Good Sir.

[John 3rd]

Here is a screenshot of what my Transports could fly through...