Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

9/1/42

Zulu:  I'll post a New Guinea map tomorrow.

DEI:  I stood down my fighters at Padang after licking Japanese fighters three or four days in a row.  I was sure that Steve wouldn't send bombers in after a string of bad days, but I was wrong.  IJ bombers from Singapore plastered the base, destroying 44 fighters on the ground.  BB North Carolina made five more hexes with no change in damage.  Apparently, she has a capable captain.  She will therefore make directly for Capetown.  She should exit the map in three or four days.  Hornet, Vincennes and company depart Colombo tonight to rejoin the carrier force west of Cocos Island.  Saratoga still has twenty days remaining in the yards.

Burma:  The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues.

NoPac:  I was pretty sure that Steve would stand down his fighters here, too.  He did.  The American fighters up here seem to be in good shape at the moment.

CenPac:  No sign of enemy carriers.

SoPac:  Japanese Dunkirk operation at PP continues.

SWPac:  Non-detection of Allied activity at PM and Milne continues.

[Canoerebel]

"For want of a shoe, the horse was lost"* 
 
*For those unfamiliar with this saying it is based upon the old proverb:  "For want of a nail the shoe was lost, for want of the shoe the horse was lost, for want of the horse the rider was lost, for want of the rider the battle was lost, for want of the battle the war was lost."
 
I just completed a small, but painful excerise in poor planning and bad luck.  I used one of my APs in the recent operations in CenPac even though I knew her withdrawal date was nearing.  I got her back to Pearl about three days late...only to discover (once again...I keep forgetting!) that you can't withdraw ships at Pearl.  So I sent her towards San Francisco...and she was torpedoed a day or two north of Pearl.  Good, I think! She'll sink, alleviating my problem (all my transports sink immediately after a single torp hit, so I'm pretty confident that the problem is solved).  Oops, she only suffered moderate damage...so moderate that she isn't even eligible for scuttling!  But....her speed is reduced to about five knots...and she's still a LONG way from San Francisco....but damage control doesn't fail her. In fact, damage decreases on the journey home.  So, several weeks later, she limps into San Francisco and is promptly (or, not so promptly) withdraw. The cost of this little fiasco?  Roughly 400 political points at the rate of 20 per day.

[Canoerebel]

9/2/42
 
DEI:  Everything still looks good for BB North Carolina.  Marine tank unit easily "evicts" Japanese paratroops that had taken the dot hex north of Padang.  Reinforcements just unloaded at Oosthaven, so the APDs will resume shuttling troops, beginning with a load to Toabali tonight.
 
Burma:  The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues.
 
NoPac:  An IJN CL/DD force sniffs around Para, tangles with PT boats with neither side taking damage, but then bumps into Para's minefield.  A DD and a CL each hit a mine.  No air attacks today.
 
CenPac:  Possible IJ move on Ocean Island pending.  The Allies have 195 AV behind four forts.  There's nothing else I can do but wait for developments.  Down near Ndeni, CAs Chikuma and Tone stumble across an empty xAK retiring from that base, sinking her.
 
SWPac:  An RO-boat tangles with a small Allied xAP/xAK TF nearing Port Moresby.  This ought to get Steve's attention, drat it.  I'll watch for signs of recon over PM and Milne.  If nothing ominous develops, the big reinforcement convoys will be ready to make their runs to these bases in about a week.

[ny59giants]

Port Service units - where are these 6 units at?? You can air transport via PBY or transport planes to a place like Port Moresby that will speed up your unloading rate there. I find they are very valuable for counter invasions and unloading at under developed ports.

Port Moresby - You can use a Port Service unit here or rail up the SW HQ to Cairns and transport it over by air. She has a high number of Naval Support and can act as a Corp HQ in defense.

[Canoerebel]

Good ideas, NYGiants.  I especially need to look at my HQ units in Oz to see which can go to PM by air transport. SW Pac HQ is currently at Townsville prepping for Milne Bay.

Here's the current disposition of the Port Service units:

A - Penryn Island (it doesn't need to be there, for goodness sake, so I'll move her down to the Oz theater).
B - Paramushiro Jima
C - Attu Island (100% prepped for Onnekotan, but won't be committed until I think there's a chance to get some supplys ships into that island).
D - Pearl Harbor
E - Ndeni
F - Cocos Island

[ny59giants]

Here's the current disposition of the Port Service units:

A - Penryn Island (it doesn't need to be there, for goodness sake, so I'll move her down to the Oz theater).
B - Paramushiro Jima
C - Attu Island (100% prepped for Onnekotan, but won't be committed until I think there's a chance to get some supplys ships into that island).
D - Pearl Harbor
E - Ndeni
F - Cocos Island

D - Move her from Pearl to......
F - Use Fast Transport to move her to Billiton or some other base away from Sumatra to help speed up the unloading of other FT missions. I would imagine you have large LCUs at Cocos that have significant Naval Support so she is not needed there.

[princep01]

Indeed a troubling story re the AP and the withdrawal cost penalty. Would it have done any good from a PP point of view to simply scuttle the transport after it was hit? If not, would it have been helpful to return it to PH. do some engine repair and speed its transit to SF?

[princep01]

Hummmm, I could probably find it in the Manual if I had time, but where do the Allied ships have to be to withdraw?

[ny59giants]

Allied ship withdrawl at size 9 ports. One of the reasons to max out Aukland, Sydney, and Melbourne. That leaves just India and USA as the farthest ports to get to.

[witpqs]

I thought that Sydney and Auckland already worked as the game-national capitals (as does Karachi)?

[PaxMondo]

I did too! Yikes ... have I had that wrong all this time? [&:]

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

I did too! Yikes ... have I had that wrong all this time? [&:]

I think you've had it right.

[princep01]

Hummmmm....All I see in the Manual is at p. 139. It simply says "To withdraw a ship, the ship must be off-map or at any national home base except the NEI or PI". So, it does not require a 9 port, but the ship must be in a national home base.

NY Giants has there been an addendum you are aware of that requires it to also be in a 9 port? I know I have withdrawn ships from Colombo, and it is a 9 port. I guess it is also a national home base for the British.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: princep01

Hummmmm....All I see in the Manual is at p. 139. It simply says "To withdraw a ship, the ship must be off-map or at any national home base except the NEI or PI". So, it does not require a 9 port, but the ship must be in a national home base.

NY Giants has there been an addendum you are aware of that requires it to also be in a 9 port? I know I have withdrawn ships from Colombo, and it is a 9 port. I guess it is also a national home base for the British.

It doesn't require a size 9 port, but in a patch it was changed to be the above ports, plus any size 9 port (I suppose PI and DEI are still excluded).

So get Melbourne to size 9, use both Sydney and Melbourne at your pleasure, etc.

[ny59giants]

Thanks witpqs, I thought it was changed in a beta to include any port that is size 9 in addition to the national home base port. [:)]

[princep01]

Okay, so if one is a stick in the mud and is playing with the last official patch is it still as the Manual says? From what you guys have said, it appears the change was in the betas following the last official patch. Thanks for taking the time to answer and CR, sorry for the hijack, but I think you might be interested in this too.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: princep01

Okay, so if one is a stick in the mud and is playing with the last official patch is it still as the Manual says? From what you guys have said, it appears the change was in the betas following the last official patch. Thanks for taking the time to answer and CR, sorry for the hijack, but I think you might be interested in this too.

No, no, that change was made in one of the official patches. If you are on the latest official patch you should be good to go.

[Alfred]

Two threads on the main forum in the last 4 days deal exhaustively with ship withdrawals.

Alfred

[princep01]

Thanks for the info, guys. Very helpful.

[Canoerebel]

9/3/42
 
DEI:  Another unit goes to Toboali via fast transport.  Billiton airfield reaches level one, an important step in projecting Allied power north of Sumatra.  A base force will go there shortly.

Burma:  The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues.

China:  Japan hasn't exposed more units to attack peacemeal, so the Chinese are evaluating options for the next offensive.

NoPac:  An IJ CL/DD group tangles with PT boats at Para, sinking two of the latter while one IJ DD takes a torpedo and goes under (I think it's the same DD that hit a mine yesterday).  A small supply TF departed Dutch Island and will make the run to Para, escorted by the Quincy TF.  No enemy air activity here in several days.

CenPac:  IJ bombardment TF including CAs Kinugasa and Ashigara hit Tabituea.  Over the past weeks, most of the Japanese navy has been present in this region, including carriers.  IJ bombardment TFs have also hit Tarawa and Baker Island in a display of force that, to my way of thinking, accomplishes nothing.  I keep looking for a counterinvasion, but nothing to this point.

SoPac:  IJ AV at Pago Pago down to 500 as the Dunkirk Operation continues.

SWPac:  No signs of detection or alarm at PM or Milne.  One of the big transport TFs was detected while putting into Sydney to refuel.  It will depart tonight for Townsville.  I'll watch closely to see if there are any signs of detection on the way north.

KB:  No sign of IJ carriers in a week or two now.  They were last committed en masse around Tarawa.  Refueling or upgrading are possibilities.  My "default concern" will always be to assume they could show up in the DEI if not seen elsewhere, but that fact that so many IJN cruisers are still employed in CenPac offers some comfort.

Analysis of Japanese Threats/Intentions by Theater:
 
NoPac:  The Allies have expected a massive IJN counterinvasion of Para and Onne since taking these islands in late March.  No signs of imminent activity here.  With just two months remaining until winter shuts down operations, the Allies are in the best shape at Para since the invasion, with 29k supply, good fighter cover, 650 AV, and four forts.  An invasion of Para would probably require three to four IJ divisions (less if the campaign were protracted and took advantage of control of the sea and air).

CenPac:  The Allies expect a counterinvasion of Ocean, Tarawa, Tabituea, and Ndeni at any point.  All four of these have decent garrisons - especially Tarawa with 580 AV, four forts, and 36k supply.  The Allies won't oppose any major moves here give naval power disparity, but want to buy time.  No move on Baker, Canton, etc. are expected unless and until Japan first deals with Tarawa et al.  Ndeni is drawing very little attention from Japan, which is a surprise and a mistake.  At some point Japan is likely to deal with this threat even if Steve doesn't decide to move on Tarawa and the islands in its immediate vicinity.

SoPac:  Japan is evacuating Pago Pago and fortifying Savaii Island in order to suppress activity at PP.  The Allies do not expect any further IJ efforts to take PP.  As activity ramps up around the Coral Sea, Japanese activity in the far-flung region around Fiji and Samoa should eventually begin to taper off.  This theater is essentially irrelevant.

SWPac:  In two weeks, the Allies should have major reinforcements at PM and Milne Bay.  At that point, Japan can counter only through major operations of its own.  Allied garrisons at PM and Milne Bay on one side of the Coral Sea, and Ndeni on the other side, poses real problems to the IJ positions in New Caledonia, Fiji and Samoa.  More importantly, they pose a threat to New Georgia and New Guinea. So, the Allies believe Japan will soon (or eventually, at best) react violently to the situation developing in this region.  As New Guinea waxes, Fiji and more remote outposts should wane.

DEI:  Is Japan ever going to attack Sumatra?  We can't know for sure, but we do know that Japan can't attack - at least in a way that would be meaningful - without the KB and other capital ships present.  The Aliles are currently pouring reinforcements into Sumatra, with those forces slowly trickling north to Billiton, Toabali and other bases.  Even if Japan doesn't go on the offensive, very soon it will have to take aggressive defensive action to stop the Allied encroachment.  Of necessity, Japan will have to concentrate on the DEI soon.  The question is whether Steve will try to first deal with NoPac, CenPac, and New Guinea.

Burma:  Currently there is a "Happy Stalemate" in Burma.  Japan can more easily reinforce and supply, so at some point this may change.  But at present, the Allies probably have sufficient reserves to maintain the stalemate even against an additional IJA division.

China:  The Chinese have done a good job of roughing up multiple IJA divisions over the past five months, though the pace has slackened considerably as the IJ army now remains clustered in strongly fortified base hexes.  The Chinese do not believe Japan has the ability at this point to prosecute a major offensive that would threaten the Chinese MLR.  The Chinese do expect an attack along the southern end of the MLR (the Nanning to Kweilin sector), but are confident that it will be repulsed.

Summary:   Japan will do one of two things:  pull most naval power back to the DEI to deal with Sumatra, or keep the navy in the Pacific to deal with NoPac, CenPac and New Guinea.  Japan remains a potent military power, but attrition to its capital ships limits its ability to fight on more than one front at a time effectively.  Thus, the Allied plan will continue to be to give Japan problems on so many fronts that they can't be handled.