Wild Sheep Chase - obvert (J) vs JocMeister (A)

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]7 October, 1944: BURMA and Elsewhere[/font]
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[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]SUBS: [/font] Took out another US sub in the South China Sea.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]S/SW PAC:[/font] I see a tanker TF moving up along the New Guinea coastline from my search planes in Rabaul I'll move a 20 plane Jake group to Hollandia, which amazingly is continuing to be operational with 4.5k supply, flak and some air support. If these are not CAPed the Jakes can do some business here as all are low nav trained to 70 and will fly at 1k.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]S DEI:[/font] The AMs should arrive at Lomblen tomorrow. My ships have not dared move since the night dropped mines here. Hopefully these ships can do the job. Mines appeared at Dili as well, but I have no plans to go there with subs or ships, so these can add to the already stiff mine defenses for the base.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]PI:[/font] Still no rowboat kami activation. Fingers crossed. Davao fields are closed. now we wait to see whether LR CAP will be solved by michaelm.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]BURMA: [/font] Tavoy becomes a growing disaster for our side. Today massed LR CAP takes out every decent strike over the invasion fleets, and on the day the air score is 74:244! Not great. Again LBA can't do the job.

After this the base falls in a landslide.

Bangkok will go into complete defensive mode and simply aim to defend troops in the area. All forces for about 2k AV are moving to Bangkok and should arrive within the week. Small bases in Malaya are getting garrisons for the first time as Chindits and other paras could be a problem here.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR October 7, 44
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Morning Air attack on TF, near Tavoy at 54,60

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 33 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M3 Jack x 20
N1K2-J George x 9
P1Y2 Frances x 13

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 23
Thunderbolt I x 22
F4U-1D Corsair x 12
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 14
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 24
P-51B Mustang x 40
F4U-1 Corsair x 12
F4U-1D Corsair x 14 [X(]!!!!!!!!

Japanese aircraft losses
J2M3 Jack: 8 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 6 destroyed
P1Y2 Frances: 9 destroyed[:(]

No Allied losses

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Morning Air attack on TF, near Tavoy at 54,60

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5c Zero x 36
B7A2 Grace x 21
J2M3 Jack x 27

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 23
Thunderbolt I x 22
F4U-1D Corsair x 12
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 12
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 24
P-51B Mustang x 38
F4U-1 Corsair x 12
F4U-1D Corsair x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5c Zero: 5 destroyed
B7A2 Grace: 14 destroyed
J2M3 Jack: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-51B Mustang: 1 destroyed

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Morning Air attack on Davao , at 79,91

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 40 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 46

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak

Airbase hits 5
Runway hits 5

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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Tavoy at 54,60

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 75 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5c Zero x 24
B6N2a Jill x 23
J2M3 Jack x 60
N1K2-J George x 4
P1Y2 Frances x 13

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 22
Thunderbolt I x 21
F4U-1D Corsair x 12
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 13
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 24
P-51B Mustang x 38
F4U-1 Corsair x 11
F4U-1D Corsair x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5c Zero: 9 destroyed
B6N2a Jill: 13 destroyed, 4 damaged
J2M3 Jack: 14 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 2 destroyed
P1Y2 Frances: 4 destroyed, 5 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Spitfire VIII: 1 destroyed
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed
P-51B Mustang: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
xAK Hatterlock
DD Quickmatch
xAK Pardo
DD Relentless

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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Tavoy at 54,60

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 69 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 14
B6N2 Jill x 18
N1K2-J George x 7
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 49

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 15
Thunderbolt I x 13
F4U-1D Corsair x 9
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 11
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 21
P-51B Mustang x 27
F4U-1 Corsair x 8
F4U-1D Corsair x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 5 destroyed
B6N2 Jill: 11 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 8 destroyed

No Allied losses

Allied Ships
xAK Industria

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x B6N2 Jill bombing from 5000 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb

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ASW attack near Camiguin at 85,74

Japanese Ships
E No.33
E No.46
E No.43

Allied Ships
SS Lionfish, hits 28, on fire, heavy damage

SS Lionfish is sighted by escort
E No.46 attacking submerged sub ....
E No.46 attacking submerged sub ....
Large oil slick appears over area of attack!
Escort abandons search for sub

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Ground combat at Tavoy (54,60)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 13595 troops, 96 guns, 660 vehicles, Assault Value = 1040

Defending force 4038 troops, 29 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 137

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 4

Allied adjusted assault: 440

Japanese adjusted defense: 7

Allied assault odds: 62 to 1 (fort level 4)

Allied forces CAPTURE Tavoy !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), disruption(-)
preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
1895 casualties reported
Squads: 105 destroyed, 82 disabled
Non Combat: 77 destroyed, 15 disabled
Engineers: 15 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 30 (21 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Units retreated 2
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
135 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 25 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
255th Indian Tank Bde /2
50th Indian Para Bde /1
111th Chindit Bde /1
Provisionl Tank Brigade
Gardner's Horse Regiment
I Aus Corps Engineer Battalion
209th Combat Engineer Battalion
IV Corps Engineer Battalion
18th Cavalry Regiment
50th Tank Brigade
9th Indian Div /8
XV Corps Engineer Battalion
XXXIII Corps Engineer Battalion
77th Chindit Bde /1

Defending units:
62nd Infantry Brigade
2nd Raiding Rgt /1
23rd JNAF AF Unit

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/font]

Reinforcements:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]MGB G-1002 arrives at Hakodate
2nd Mortar Battalion arrives at Tokyo
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion arrives at Tokyo[/font]

Losses:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]Loss of SS I-58 on Oct 07, 1944 is admitted
Loss of SS I-171 on Oct 07, 1944 is admitted
Loss of MTB G-540 on Oct 07, 1944 is admitted
Loss of MTB G-552 on Oct 07, 1944 is admitted
Loss of MTB G-872 on Oct 07, 1944 is admitted
Loss of MTB G-886 on Oct 07, 1944 is admitted
Loss of ML G-206 on Oct 07, 1944 is admitted
Loss of MTB G-354 on Oct 07, 1944 is admitted[/font]

Ships Sunk:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]CVE Anzio is reported to have been sunk near Saipan on Oct 07, 1944
SS Lionfish is reported to have been sunk near Camiguin on Oct 07, 1944
LST-40 is reported to have been sunk near Talaud-eilanden on Aug 13, 1944[/font]
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[font="Trebuchet MS"]Just to showcase the evidence of supposed LR CAP transport interception, here is the list for today. Lots of intercepts, and although I didn't even look at ops losses I think there were no outright A to A kills of transports on the day. We do have a problem.

I had no idea these giants were amphibs until seeing this shot!

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16 x L2D2 Tabby transporting 2nd Raiding Regiment to Tavoy
Escorted L2D2 Tabby flying to Tavoy intercepted
4 x H8K2 Emily transporting 6th JAAF AF Bn to Sadogashima
6 x H8K2-L Emily transporting 15th Garrison Unit to Victoria Point
25 x Ki-56 Thalia transporting 6th Division to Naga
11 x H8K2 Emily transporting 2nd Amphibious Brigade from Manokwari
6 x H8K2-L Emily transporting 48th Ind.Mixed Brigade from Davao
H8K2-L Emily flying to Davao intercepted
8 x H8K2 Emily transporting 57th Ind.Mixed Brigade from Davao
H8K2 Emily flying to Davao intercepted
12 x H8K2 Emily transporting 57th Ind.Mixed Brigade from Davao
H8K2 Emily flying to Davao intercepted
33 x L2D2 Tabby transporting 216th Naval Construction Battalion from Davao
L2D2 Tabby flying to Davao intercepted
11 x H8K2-L Emily transporting 1st Mobile Brigade from Manokwari
27 x L2D2 Tabby transporting 57th Ind.Mixed Brigade from Davao
L2D2 Tabby flying to Davao intercepted
15 x L2D2 Tabby transporting 7th Base Force from Kendari
17 x L2D2 Tabby transporting 57th Ind.Mixed Brigade from Davao
L2D2 Tabby flying to Davao intercepted
9 x L2D2 Tabby transporting 217th Naval Construction Battalion from Davao
L2D2 Tabby flying to Davao intercepted
22 x Ki-49-II KAI Helen transporting 56th Ind.Mixed Brigade from Davao
Ki-49-II KAI Helen flying to Davao intercepted
15 x Ki-49-II KAI Helen transporting 174th JAAF AF Bn from Cebu
22 x Ki-49-II KAI Helen transporting 206th Naval Construction Battalion from Davao
Ki-49-II KAI Helen flying to Davao intercepted
7 x Ki-49-II KAI Helen transporting 25th Ind. Engineer Regiment from Davao
Ki-49-II KAI Helen flying to Davao intercepted
9 x Ki-57-II Topsy transporting 217th Naval Construction Battalion from Davao
Ki-57-II Topsy flying to Davao intercepted
9 x Ki-49-II KAI Helen transporting 56th Ind.Mixed Brigade from Davao
Ki-49-II KAI Helen flying to Davao intercepted
8 x Ki-49-II KAI Helen transporting 58th Construction Battalion from Ambon
5 x Ki-57-I Topsy transporting 15th Garrison Unit from Port Blair
6 x Ki-57-I Topsy transporting 25th Ind. Engineer Regiment from Davao
Ki-57-I Topsy flying to Davao intercepted
6 x Ki-49-II KAI Helen transporting 248th JAAF AF Bn from Davao
Ki-49-II KAI Helen flying to Davao intercepted
9 x Ki-49-II KAI Helen transporting 15th Base Force from Rabaul
7 x Ki-49-II KAI Helen transporting 188th JAAF AF Bn from Davao
Ki-49-II KAI Helen flying to Davao intercepted
9 x Ki-49-II KAI Helen transporting Ichiki Det. from Kusaie Island
8 x Ki-49-II KAI Helen transporting 90th JAAF AF Bn from Ambon
4 x Ki-49-II KAI Helen transporting 248th JAAF AF Bn from Davao
Ki-49-II KAI Helen flying to Davao intercepted
9 x Ki-49-II KAI Helen transporting 248th JAAF AF Bn from Davao
Ki-49-II KAI Helen flying to Davao intercepted
8 x Ki-56 Thalia transporting 217th Naval Construction Battalion from Davao
Ki-56 Thalia flying to Davao intercepted[/font]
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[obvert]

Jocke and I have had several email conversations back and forth. He graciously wrote after his last long message that he wasn't insinuating that I had intentionally tried to exploit something here, and that he was mostly upset with the lost time in game and the fact he didn't take action on his hunch earlier.

So far there have bee no movements on the thread started in the TECH forum about LR CAP and transport interception, which has also evolved to include transport to 100% damaged bases and ports.

If anyone has more to offer there please do to get the ball moving further down the lane. The game will likely be on hold until this is sorted out.

[witpqs]

Day Time Surface Combat, near Tinian at 108,94, Range 18,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
E Hasu
E Susuki
E Hiyodori, Shell hits 3

Allied Ships
CVE Windham Bay, Shell hits 3
CVE Bougainville, Shell hits 5, on fire
CVE Matanikau, Shell hits 1
CVE Munda, Shell hits 1
CVE Roi, Shell hits 2, on fire
CVE Attu
CVE Takanis Bay, Shell hits 9, on fire
DE Paul G. Baker, Shell hits 1, on fire
DE Jaccard
DE O'Flaherty
DE Raymond
DE Cauvery
DE Kistna

Some seriously red-faced escort captains there!

[witpqs]

I think Michael is pretty busy at work. He did respond to some bug stuff last weekend. I think he has basically no time at all for AE during the week right now.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Day Time Surface Combat, near Tinian at 108,94, Range 18,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
E Hasu
E Susuki
E Hiyodori, Shell hits 3

Allied Ships
CVE Windham Bay, Shell hits 3
CVE Bougainville, Shell hits 5, on fire
CVE Matanikau, Shell hits 1
CVE Munda, Shell hits 1
CVE Roi, Shell hits 2, on fire
CVE Attu
CVE Takanis Bay, Shell hits 9, on fire
DE Paul G. Baker, Shell hits 1, on fire
DE Jaccard
DE O'Flaherty
DE Raymond
DE Cauvery
DE Kistna

Some seriously red-faced escort captains there!

Yeah, I'd say! The speed of the IJN torpedo boats probably helped agains the slower DEs, but crazy this happened in daylight as well!

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I think Michael is pretty busy at work. He did respond to some bug stuff last weekend. I think he has basically no time at all for AE during the week right now.

Thanks! I hope he has a chance to look at it, but man, he puts in so much time of this game that he doesn't have to do. [&o]

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I think Michael is pretty busy at work. He did respond to some bug stuff last weekend. I think he has basically no time at all for AE during the week right now.

I've swapped a couple of emails with him this week and that is exactly what he said ... RL was encroaching upon all of his other activities.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I think Michael is pretty busy at work. He did respond to some bug stuff last weekend. I think he has basically no time at all for AE during the week right now.

I've swapped a couple of emails with him this week and that is exactly what he said ... RL was encroaching upon all of his other activities.

Thanks Pax. It's good to have some confirmation that it might be a while.

I sent a note to Jocke last night detailing my process through all of this, and the apologies for not realizing that there was a problem with LR CAP and transport. If I was paying closer attention I should have figured it out a few days earlier at least.

He seems really on the edge of quitting this entirely. After a lot of good communication over that last few days he's not sent anything back to my last note. For most players that might be par for the course, but we've always been really good at getting to each other and working through whatever was happening. I've had to convince him twice previously to continue the game when he thought it was hopeless and now look at his position. I've made some mistakes, and he's made a few, but generally I think this has been a good contest showing the different abilities of the sides during various stages of the war. I feel like this is his time to enjoy it, and so it comes as a huge surprise and shock that this is causing so much difficulty.

I'm happy to HR the troop transport, especially if no fix is coming for the LR CAP. I heard no response on that offer so far. It makes me wonder of he's actually just burned out.

We all probably spend too much time at this, and that can sometimes lead to problems when we feel we've pushed toward a goal and something didn't go as planned. Jocke's goal for about a year of game was Mindanao. He was so ecstatic when he forced the landing at Cotabato and made it there. Now I feel this has taken the wind out completely. For him this was symbolic, not just a stepping stone. The place to finally catch and destroy a large contingent of the IJA.

It sucks that the LR CAP issue has gotten in the way, but what can we do now? I'm game to play on with whatever stipulations he needs to feel justified in this situation. I'm just starting to wonder if he's ready to throw in the towel. [:(]

[Captain Cruft]

I've been surprised at how easy it is to shift large troop bodies via air in my own game as Japan. My opponent has never mentioned it though, and I am now getting to the line where I intend to "die and inflict casualties" rather than run away so it will become a moot point.

If Jocke is feeling peeved perhaps he could be persuaded to continue by an HR which states that you will only use it to move HQs and av support or some such? I suspect it's the movement of AV which annoys.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Captain Cruft

I've been surprised at how easy it is to shift large troop bodies via air in my own game as Japan. My opponent has never mentioned it though, and I am now getting to the line where I intend to "die and inflict casualties" rather than run away so it will become a moot point.

If Jocke is feeling peeved perhaps he could be persuaded to continue by an HR which states that you will only use it to move HQs and av support or some such? I suspect it's the movement of AV which annoys.

That would be completely fine if he wanted something like that. I have used it because it was possible and I felt approximated things that the Japanese did that don't work so well in game, like barges and fast transport. If it's sticking point I'm happy to compromise, and I've hopefully made that clear.

[obvert]

We've had some good discussions about the situation with air transport and the inability to LR CAP. I'm glad we looked into it, and that we both did some testing. It's much better to know this has been happening than to be frustrated by the amount of stuff moving without interdiction.

I've agreed to wait to see if michaelm can do anything for the LR CAP issue, but I also guess this stoppage has to do with the epic scope of the current game and this particular point in it, where the Allies have increasingly more to do getting all of their stuff into place to crush my stuff. [;)] Jocke has mentioned enjoying his evenings with his wife and not missing doing turns. This seems like more than a problem with the air transport system. If your heart isn't in it it's hard to justify the time expenditure.

Anyway, I like some of the suggestions. I'd be happy moving forward with just the ability to transport HQs and AV support. I can still buy back units and anyway it would save me a ton of fiddling that definitely takes the fun out of some turns. I'd spend less on transport planes and pilots, and save a bit of supply on that end that I could use to rebuild units. So I can see ways to move forward with compromise. We'll see if Jocke decides he does want to go throughout the last year.

In the meantime I'll go through tracker a bit and show where the Empire is at this point. One of my aims with this AAR is to give other Japanese players some indication of possibilities throughout the war, and how certain decisions have created the current circumstances. It might also be good to point out what I think is working that I should have done more of earlier. Especially in the defense of oil.

Feel free to add in about the current state of the game and continue to offer ideas going forward as if it will continue.

[PaxMondo]

Hope you guys are able to get the game back going after a break. You have both played well and this game is deep into '44. Been very enjoyable read so far ...

[obvert]

Thanks Pax. I'm optimistic.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]GLOBAL MAP[/font]
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This should say a lot about where the game is now. The giant arrow of the Allied drive into the PI is pretty obvious, as are the potential areas for strikes along the very long and narrow LOC where we still have many operational bases. Just waiting for activation. [:)]

[veji1]

I find his axis of advance somewhat surprising. Having Mindanao is good an all, but his focus now should be getting the bases in Borneo/Celebes that would then allow him to plaster your oil production. Because contrary to RL, interdicting traffic in the China seas is good an all, but it makes only a relative difference, as lots can still flow by land from Singers up.

[fcharton]

I wouldn't care much for that supply path, either... To resupply Mindanao, he needs either to break through the Celebes (where you most certainly have quite a few planes), or move along the northern coast of New Guinea.

Do you have a possibility to send raiders along the coast of New Guinea, strike at his lifeline, and break his advance for lack of supplies?

Francois

[PaxMondo]

I will take the opposing view here; I think you are in grave danger. He has isolated the Gilberts, Marshall's, and Solomons. You are the one in trouble for supplying your front. Minidinao has 2 or 3 bases which can support B-29's, and it is far better positioned than the Gilberts to cause havoc. Once he gets 4E's in Mindinao, your entire DEI oil production can be exterminated in a couple of weeks, Singers is vulnerable. HK is vulnerable.

If you cannot dislodge him from Mindinao, or re-take one of those two islands in the center (which I suspect you can't, not in '44), I would be pulling most of those troops out of Solomon's/Marshall's for sure. You need to really reinforce the Bonin's, Okinawa, Formosa. I think you are badly overextended right now. I would be re-trenching fast before I had too many units cut off.

IJ has almost as many ID's as the allies total. Granted, not as much firepower, but manpower yes. That means if you don't get too many cut-off, you can present a really formidable defense close in. Also, you can't afford to lose too many support units. IJ has so few and they are so small to begin with.

Just the opposing view ... you're playing great here so I may be completely off base.

[zuluhour]

+1 Pax

As CnCPac, I'd be licking my chops placing Gato's as well.

[veji1]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

I will take the opposing view here; I think you are in grave danger. He has isolated the Gilberts, Marshall's, and Solomons. You are the one in trouble for supplying your front. Minidinao has 2 or 3 bases which can support B-29's, and it is far better positioned than the Gilberts to cause havoc. Once he gets 4E's in Mindinao, your entire DEI oil production can be exterminated in a couple of weeks, Singers is vulnerable. HK is vulnerable.

If you cannot dislodge him from Mindinao, or re-take one of those two islands in the center (which I suspect you can't, not in '44), I would be pulling most of those troops out of Solomon's/Marshall's for sure. You need to really reinforce the Bonin's, Okinawa, Formosa. I think you are badly overextended right now. I would be re-trenching fast before I had too many units cut off.

IJ has almost as many ID's as the allies total. Granted, not as much firepower, but manpower yes. That means if you don't get too many cut-off, you can present a really formidable defense close in. Also, you can't afford to lose too many support units. IJ has so few and they are so small to begin with.

Just the opposing view ... you're playing great here so I may be completely off base.

O I agree with you, of course just controling Mindanao and all those PI bases gives him so many supporting air bases that the South china Seas are effectively closed for business, he is indeed in a very good position ( i find it absurd that the Kamis aren't available yet, as the danger is mortal).

I just disagree on the oil front, but I might be wrong. Getting a few more bases in Borneo Celebes would give him enough Air bases to plaster the oil not only with B29, but with other 4Es, and also ensure that he can effectively shut traffic between Palembang and Singers down. Than it is over in terms of oil.

But you are right in a sense, the oil in 44 is not that critical anymore as clever japanese players have stockpiled HIs for plane production.

And again you are right that everything further than the marianas is irrelevant now, but i fear that he cannot evacuate now. and keeping a bit of Aviation support here and there to allow harassment and coup de mains is still useful.

Jocke is doing really well anyway.

[obvert]

Interesting comments.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]INTERDICTING THE ALLIED LOC: [/font]I have been able to work on the transport of goods and men in several ways here using Rabaul, Hollandia, other Solomon Islands that have supply still (about 5-6 left over 5k in supply in spite of no shipment in 8-10 months there) and by moving the KB in to the Celebes Sea. He has decent CAP all along the route but it can't cover everything always. There are too many Allied bases with good 80-100 planes CAP in the Moluccas to hit this portion easily, so the lower DEI and Celebes bases are also evacuating.

Several instances during the past 5 weeks:

Fast Es hit and sank 12-15 LSTs near Mindanao.
Graces hit and sink 3-4 tankers from Rabaul.
The KB moved in and sank 60-70 ships in the Celebes Sea plus as many as 15-20k troops in one day of missions. [8D]
Graces sank 10-12 xAK and escorts at Milne Bay with 5k troops on board.
After Saipan invasion Es and DDs move in and engage two TFs of tankers and CVEs, likely sinking a few and damaging as many as 10 ships.
Jakes from Hollandia hit and likely sink 3-4 loaded tankers

I have a lot of float plane groups that would be fairly good against soft targets in a kami role. I'm interested in trying this anyway. A Jake with 4 x 60kg should do a lot against a transport or even a DD.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]ORGANIZED RETREAT: [/font]About the Central Pacific, this has been far behind the front for some time and all Gilberts/Marshalls/Carolines are still being vacated and troops coming back as much as possible. Very little is left out there. Only 200 AV at Truk even but a good amount of support troops. Once the CVs clear off I'll try to get some of this moving out but it will likely have to use the dreaded air transport system. He doesn't care at this point to take any of these places as it's 10/44 and he's in the PI. His interest is speed moving forward.

It may look like we're all over the place, but the majority of forces are back. Each big Marianas base has 800-900 AV and the Bonins are around 500-600 AV and building. I need the other half of several divisions bought out to get there from China. Formosa has several divisions and about 1200 AV total. Luzon has about 3000 AV now.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]PROTECTING AND MOVING THE OIL: [/font]Although all of your points are valid he's already been getting to the oil by hitting it at night with B-29s. Contrary to veji1's comment above, oil is more critical than ever. I wasn't quite as prudent as I could have been in the beginning, but I've tried hard to conserve over the past year and a half at least, and still the oil is low. There is no surplus late as oil centers begin getting knocked off. I have about 4 months worth in the HI and could run ships off of the surplus in the tanks of the xAKs in the HI for quite a while.

He hit Medan earliest, getting the oil to 36 (174). Then he hit the Chinese centers knocking out Lanchow and Sian completely. After moving around to base at Cotabato he's knocked off Miri and has started in on Palembang. He destroyed 85 oil there in two attacks, but most of that was the first one. In the second I put all but one of my NF groups here, and the flak upgrades did wonders as well. His whole flotilla could only start 10k fires during that one we downed about 20 B-29s (for equal losses of Irving-S).

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]RESERVES AND THE FUTURE: [/font]I'll post some economic news soon, but there is some not too far back showing about 2 million fuel left and about 200k oil. My hope is to continue producing and sending at least 75% of what is traveling up now through into 45, so for the next few months. Then maybe only 50% of that for a month. Then 25% for another month. Then getting down to about 10-15% by the end of March, most of that from areas close to and on the HI. So if new HI can be produced at full tilt into April 45 I'l be ecstatic. He can bomb the HI with B-29s from the Southern Luzon area once he captures that and from quite a few other islands in the PI plus he'll likely have the traditional Marianas bases for that soon.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]FORTIFICATION: [/font]My current focus is transitioning back from Burma and protecting agains the Tavoy incursion plus getting another few divisions to Formosa. Then the Okinawa area is the priority. Making sure I can defend there at a high level so he can't get fighters in range early and good standard 4E bases. I've got unit building forts on al lot those little islands and Okinawa bases are ready to go but could use another 500 AV in each. First things first though I hope to bog things down on Luzon and especially start inflicting some losses once kamis are activated, which could be at any moment.

[fcharton]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
I will take the opposing view here; I think you are in grave danger. He has isolated the Gilberts, Marshall's, and Solomons.

Is this really so? Those areas are only isolated if you consider holding Yap (0 SPS airfield), Wake (same) and Eniwetok (a bit larger, but atoll), block all communications between the Marshalls and the Mariannas or Japan. I think the bottleneck drawn on the map above is a bit of an exageration.

Of course, Jocke should try and close the pocket, but this means several invasions on well built bases, and usually on atolls. This should take time, be costly, and delay his advance in the Philippines (and it is late 1944 already...). And if he doesn't, his logisitical tail is very long and vulnerable.

My impression is the Erik is in a perfect position to delay the Allied advance, and force Jocke to move in the Celebes or in the Carolines, which may take a while. I would try to be naughty in the south pacific...

Francois