Pat vs Ronnie GW AAR

[rkr1958]

Turn 17. May/June 1942. Allied #4. CW. HQ Reorg.

Three RAF fighters units are reorganized by the CW. Two in England and one in North Africa.

[rkr1958]

Turn 17. May/June 1942. Axis #5. Weather.

I was hoping for storms in the Arctic and North Temperate but that was not to be.

[brian brian]

That is certainly combat "in the Soviet style." The state of the war is rather frequently changed dramatically on the Ukrainian steppes.

[ashkpa]

MJ42 i5:
Germany takes a land while Japan and Italy take combined actions.
Italy drops the NAV in the E. Med to the 1-box and flies another fighter out to the 1-box. They also use the transport in Sardinia to move 2-divisions to Tunisia.
Japan flys a fighter to the Coral Sea 0-box. Moves a CA to the Arabian Sea and an Amph (loaded with a MAR) and CV to the 3-box of the Bismarck Sea.

Naval combats all resulted in no contact except for the Arabian Sea where I had you avoid combat (image below).
Here are all of the search rolls:
E. Med 8/9
Arabian sea 8/3
Coral Sea 4/8
Hawaiian Islands 9/3
Christmas Islands 7/10

Edit: I did have your fighter fly to the 0-box in the E. Med.

The allies had no option of initiating combat.

[ashkpa]

Here are the Ground Strikes.
This impulse I am not rolling low in searches or GS. Hopefully that keeps up for any ground attacks.

[ashkpa]

During land moves, the Italians overran and captured the FR BB Bretagne (disorganized and out of supply in Corsica).

[ashkpa]

MJ42 i5 Land Attacks
Wish the first and third attacks rolls had been in opposite order. actually the first could have changed with either of the other two.

[rkr1958]

Turn 17. May/June 1942. Allied #6. Actions.

[rkr1958]

Turn 17. May/June 1942. Allied #6. USN, Pacific. Contested Sea Areas.

The USN elects not to attempt to initiate combat in any of these areas. The IJN, as the non-phasing player, can't.

[rkr1958]

Turn 17. May/June 1942. Allied #6. USN. North Sea.

The USN elects not to attempt to initiate combat in the North Sea. The Germans, as the non-phasing player, can't.

[rkr1958]

Turn 17. May/June 1942. Allied #6. USSR. Ground Strike. Question.

The Soviets are flying their I-153 as a night bomber in an attempted in ground strike. The Luftwaffe has one fighter unit in place that could intercept. Do you wish to intercept? If so, I assume it must fly as a night fighter?

[ashkpa]

Turn 17. May/June 1942. Allied #6. USSR. Ground Strike. Question.

The Soviets are flying their I-153 as a night bomber in an attempted in ground strike. The Luftwaffe has one fighter unit in place that could intercept. Do you wish to intercept? If so, I assume it must fly as a night fighter?

I will not fly here.

[cfinch]

Just to check my understanding please, from this post:
1/21/2017 1:02:13 AM

Odds of 12:13 are 5/6 of the way from 12:18 (2:3 = +1) and 12:12 (1:1 = +2), so the modifier is 1 + 5/6 = +1.8333
Then +5 for disorganized defenders
and +0.5 for ARM div in a blitz
Total is +7.333
=============================
you checked how far 12 was from 12:12 but not how far odds were from 1:1 which is 13:13!

Also, I think you need to check to what % you have progressed from the lower to higher odds ratios (using half ratios = +1 e.g. 3:1 = +6 and 3.5:1 = +7)

For Odds < 1:1 (over 1:1 you can double attack factors and divide by defense factors to get base +DRM) I believe it is correct to calculate as follows:
multiply both attack and defense factors to make calc easier - 12:13 = 36:39

What odds are we "above" 2:3 = 26:39
need 13 to get from 2:3 to 1:1.
We have 10 more than 26, so 10 / 13 = 0.769
So DRM = +1 for 3:2 and 0.769 for fractional (shown normally as 1.769) - correct?

If this is correct then some other calcs until we get <3:2 are
12:13 36:39 (36-26 = 10 of 13 steps to 39 , 10/13 = 0.769
11:13 33:39 (33-26 = 7 of 13 steps to 39 , 7/13 = 0.538
10:13 30:39 (30-26 = 4 of 13 steps to 39 , 4/13 = 0.307
9:13 27:39 (27-26 = 1 of 13 steps to 39 , 1/13 = 0.077
all are +1 with fractional as above

until we reach
8:13 48:78 < 2:3 (52:78) - recalc what are we higher than, 1:2 = 39:78

distance from 1:2 (39) to 2:3 (52) is 13
we have 48 so we are 9 over 39
9/13 = 0.692
So DRM = +0 for 1:2 and 0.692 for fractional

8:13 48:78 (48-39 = 9 of 13 steps to 39 , 9/13 = 0.692
7:13 42:78 (42-39 = 3 of 13 steps to 39 , 3/13 = 0.231

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: cfinch

Just to check my understanding please, from this post:
1/21/2017 1:02:13 AM

Odds of 12:13 are 5/6 of the way from 12:18 (2:3 = +1) and 12:12 (1:1 = +2), so the modifier is 1 + 5/6 = +1.8333
Then +5 for disorganized defenders
and +0.5 for ARM div in a blitz
Total is +7.333
=============================
you checked how far 12 was from 12:12 but not how far odds were from 1:1 which is 13:13!

Also, I think you need to check to what % you have progressed from the lower to higher odds ratios (using half ratios = +1 e.g. 3:1 = +6 and 3.5:1 = +7)

For Odds < 1:1 (over 1:1 you can double attack factors and divide by defense factors to get base +DRM) I believe it is correct to calculate as follows:
multiply both attack and defense factors to make calc easier - 12:13 = 36:39

What odds are we "above" 2:3 = 26:39
need 13 to get from 2:3 to 1:1.
We have 10 more than 26, so 10 / 13 = 0.769
So DRM = +1 for 3:2 and 0.769 for fractional (shown normally as 1.769) - correct?

If this is correct then some other calcs until we get <3:2 are
12:13 36:39 (36-26 = 10 of 13 steps to 39 , 10/13 = 0.769
11:13 33:39 (33-26 = 7 of 13 steps to 39 , 7/13 = 0.538
10:13 30:39 (30-26 = 4 of 13 steps to 39 , 4/13 = 0.307
9:13 27:39 (27-26 = 1 of 13 steps to 39 , 1/13 = 0.077
all are +1 with fractional as above

until we reach
8:13 48:78 < 2:3 (52:78) - recalc what are we higher than, 1:2 = 39:78

distance from 1:2 (39) to 2:3 (52) is 13
we have 48 so we are 9 over 39
9/13 = 0.692
So DRM = +0 for 1:2 and 0.692 for fractional

8:13 48:78 (48-39 = 9 of 13 steps to 39 , 9/13 = 0.692
7:13 42:78 (42-39 = 3 of 13 steps to 39 , 3/13 = 0.231

[&:]

[brian brian]

That particular Me-110 model does not receive the Night-Fighter bonus. The orange color of the Air-to-Air combat value indicates it is a Twin-Engine FTR, but the Air-to-Air value would have to be on a black background to be a Night Fighter.

Also the defending player does not make any decision about fighting a night air combat. If the phasing player announces a Night Mission, any interception attempt is automatically a night combat.

[ashkpa]

What odds are we "above" 2:3 = 26:39
need 13 to get from 2:3 to 1:1.
We have 10 more than 26, so 10 / 13 = 0.769
So DRM = +1 for 3:2 and 0.769 for fractional (shown normally as 1.769) - correct?

Cfinch, you are correct. My error. In the end it made no difference in the result. Once the 0.5 for the ARM-div was added I needed to roll <0.269 and I rolled above that and my previously incorrect calculation as well. This just means I missed by a bit more.

For Ronnie:
You had 13 defense factors. I had 12 attack factors. The two odds ratios that are critical are 1:1 +2 and 2:3 +1.
With 13 defensive factors, it takes 8.667 (8 & 2/3) attack factors to make 2:3 odds. I was 12-8.667 = 3.333 of the way there and needed to be 4.333 of the way there to get to 1:1. So the ratio for the fractional should have been 3.333/4.333 = 0.769
I had kept the wrong thing constant (the attack factors of 12 and not the defense factors of 13).

[cfinch]

original post had calcs for getting to 2:3 at 12:18 but you need to calc what is needed based defenders value of 13, 2:3 on this would be 8.667:13

so basically i found common denominators (e.g. 3x13 so could do the calcs for 2:3 without fractions)
26:39 = 2:3 exact, so then calculated how much of that number the attacker has
in this case 12x3 = 36, so he has 10 "increments" to the next odds level (2:3 or 26:39 until get to 39:39 or 1:1)

The "interval" from 26 to 39 has 13 steps we get a % for each 'step' we can cover, 10 in this case (we had 36 or 39 remember and 10 over 26 - we used 26 to get to base 2:3 odds)
so fractional = steps / interval = 10/13


another example 11:12 also below 1:1 causing manual calculation
2:3 = 8:12 in this case, and our calcs are much simpler
base is 8 we have 11 so 3 over to put towards fractional
interval is 12 - 8 = 4
remainder 3 / interval 4 = 0.750 fractional to get to 1:1 from 2:3 because we are 3/4 they distance from 2:3 (8:12) to 1:1 (12:12)

i was wondering if the rules intended to use the actual % distance from x to y odds or if some other simplification was used...

[cfinch]

cross posted and thanks for confirming (before my second post!) and yes i knew it made no difference i just wasn't sure it was as per rules (see second post)
love the AAR
thanks for that as well

charles

[rkr1958]

Turn 17. May/June 1942. Allied #6. USSR. Ground Strike Execution.

[rkr1958]

Turn 17. May/June 1942. Allied #6. USSR. Rail Blue Factory.