Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

2/9/45 to 2/11/45

Battle of Luzon: Having shot his wad (a powerful, long-lasting wad, at that), things quiet down. The Allied armies are coming ashore without let or hindrance.

To the south of Manila, the first objective will be to destroy the small enemy army at Atimonan and to then take all the bases on that peninsula. (Three IJA brigades did the Allies a favor by advancing to Lucena, just as an Allied army unloaded and booted them from the hex, doing heavy damage to the enemy.) Eventually, this army will move on Manila.

To the north of Manila, a large Allied army will remain at Iba to hold the enemy armies at Clark and Manila in check. Allied engineers and bases forces, escorted by security units, will fan out to the north. Their chief objective is to build the airfield at Aparri for strategic bombing purposes.

[Canoerebel]

2/12/45

Battle of Luzon: Some returns on the investment today, as Japanese air gets chewed up while attacking DS. Also, Allied LBA dive bombers knocked out some troop transports near Aparri.

All Allied troops are ashore, but there's still a ton of supply to unload (the seized bases are still relatively small and thus have limits on supply, though I've exceeded those greatly). In a day or three, DS & The Herd of Empties will move SW a bit. The mission will be to pick up and escort reinforcements from (and gathering at) Brunei/Miri, while also allowing empties and cripples to detach and head for Soerabaja.

Things look really good, at the moment.

[Canoerebel]

2/13/45 to 2/16/45

Order has been restored in theater, after the boisterous fisticuffs of the past two weeks. The Allied lead is increasing again, and the Allies are in good position to prosecute the war vs. Singers and on Luzon. In China, the objective is to maintain the status quo, for now.

Battle of Luzon: Allies boot enemy army from Atimonan. Liquidating that army is a surety but will take time, as it retreats down the peninsula. Allied bases are growing large, quickly. Manila will be a real tough nut but it's nearly cordoned off now.

Singapore: Next Allied general attack will take place the day after tomorrow. Most recent enemy adjusted AV was 14k. I'm hoping forts will drop a level (to 7) and that adjusted AV will be 13k or less. If that's what happens, then the end result becomes a mathematical exercise that would take perhaps four to six weeks.

[HansBolter]

Have you meticulously examined all ships in the herd TFs?

I have found that sometimes one ship with heavy engine damage is the culprit in slowing movement of the gaggle.

[Canoerebel]

Everything's been carefully checked repeatedly.. It's just one of those things that happens when there's 1500 ships involved. It gets cumbersome.

[BBfanboy]

I think sometimes daisy-chained "follow" orders can also result in slow progress. Better to have one lead TF and all others follow it.
Low threat tolerance can also make some TFs skittish.

[Canoerebel]

I don't really have a daisy chain here, but I do think the number of TFs is the real issue. All TFs (all 27,000 of them) are set to Direct/Absolute.

[Canoerebel]

2/17/45

Battle of Luzon: The Japanese air forces suffer two black eyes - one defensively at Manila, the second offensively at Lucena.

Singapore: Key attack tomorrow. I'm really interested in this, because it's going to reveal whether the Allied plan is viable and on course, or whether I need to resign the game and take up checkers.

The Invasion of Luzon: My handling of the carriers left a lot to be desired on two accounts, but they did the job. They got the transports to the beachheads and ports without loss, and that's going to prove pivotal in the race to victory. And if things go properly at Singers tomorrow, I do think it will be a race, of sorts.

[BBfanboy]

Could your fast TFs have done underway replenishment during the turn? Not sure what message notification you would get of this.

[Canoerebel]

No replenishment of any kind. All TFs are 100% ammo and full on fuel.

(It's not a puzzle I'm trying to solve, because I've already checked out all the variables. As noted above, I'm pretty sure it's simply the number of TFs in a complicated Lead/Follow arrangement.)

[crsutton]

Holy cow! You still playing this thing? [;)]

[Canoerebel]

Hey, Ross, I think of you all the time! IE, you're missed around these parts. I just pondered your disappearance yesterday, figuring you'd had your fill and moved on to new endeavors and pursuits.

Emmylou Harris!

[Canoerebel]

2/18/45

Singapore: A most promising attack today. Reduction and taking the base should now be a mathematical progression. It's going to take awhile but I don't think it's going to be costly nor endless. Probably 4-6 weeks.

[Capt. Harlock]

Singapore: A most promising attack today. Reduction and taking the base should now be a mathematical progression.

Especially encouraging is the performance of the Allied engineers, after the decimation of the first attack. How soon do you expect the naval bombardments to start?

[Canoerebel]

The bombardment was to begin on the 20th. I just played that turn - no bombardment (the TF did one of those weird one-hex adjustments that can be so aggravating: "Hey, computer, can't you get something this simple right?"). The first will take place tonight (presumably). A second BB TF is moving into position to join the effort. The two will rotate. Also, on the 21st, some of the armor will attack. We'll get another look at IJA adjusted AV, this time with forts at 7.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45 to 2/21/45

The Northern Front: Escorted daytime B-29s made a mess of Takao, Formosa's airfield, destroying 100+ aircraft on the ground. Dave keeps basing aircraft forward. With the P-51Ds available for escort duty, daytime raids are efficient and effective. Over on Luzon, the Allied army moving down the peninsula will arrive at Naga in about three or four days. A smaller, mobile army is about to move on Aparri. I don't think John has seriously reinforced the little unit that landed without any guns. If that's true, the base should fall quickly. Lots of engineers are inbound. Getting the airfield built is probably the greatest single priority now.

Singapore: Allied BB TF bombards, doing minimal damage but not encountering any guns or mines. So the bombardment routine will help keep the enemy garrison "rattled" and disrupted.

Probing Allied deliberate attack by elements of armor gives an adjusted enemy AV of just 5400 (see results below). This is a huge decline. The base is going to fall inside the month, unless there are real issues with dice rolls.

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 13412 troops, 573 guns, 1319 vehicles, Assault Value = 3606

Defending force 97115 troops, 1263 guns, 2650 vehicles, Assault Value = 2657

Allied adjusted assault: 314

Japanese adjusted defense: 5497

Allied assault odds: 1 to 17 (fort level 7)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), disruption(-)
experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
235 casualties reported
Squads: 14 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 11 (4 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Vehicles lost 20 (5 destroyed, 15 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 30 (7 destroyed, 23 disabled)
Vehicles lost 250 (26 destroyed, 224 disabled)

[Canoerebel]

2/22/45 to 2/24/45

Luzon: Allies reclaim Aparri and it's level 8 airfield. Presto, instant Strategic Bombing campaign (well, that would be true if the B-29s were ready; they need another four or five days of rest after heavy and important campaigning). The reinforcing army from Borneo is unloading near Manila.

Singapore: Next Allied attack in about a week. Is Singers worth the effort? In this particular game, maybe not. I could've devoted that 6k-AV army and the air force to China, pushing deep and probably expediting the Strategic Bombing campaign. Here the Allies may score 3k or 4k points for Singers (base and army losses). Perhaps I could've done that much or more in China or Formosa or whatever. In many games, however, Singers is needed for its Shipyard or to facilitate the movement of ships. And in some games, the Allies aren't position to do deeper things anyway. But in this particular game, I might've been better off inserting this army at Kwangchowan or Swatow.

[BillBrown]

I hope John is not reinforcing in this game. [;)]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

I hope John is not reinforcing in this game. [;)]

I am sure he is not - Dan's opponent is Fabertong (Dave).

[BillBrown]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

2/19/45 to 2/21/45

The Northern Front: Escorted daytime B-29s made a mess of Takao, Formosa's airfield, destroying 100+ aircraft on the ground. Dave keeps basing aircraft forward. With the P-51Ds available for escort duty, daytime raids are efficient and effective. Over on Luzon, the Allied army moving down the peninsula will arrive at Naga in about three or four days. A smaller, mobile army is about to move on Aparri. I don't think John has seriously reinforced the little unit that landed without any guns. If that's
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