Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

12/23/44

L-Day+2: Returns on investment. I'm anxious to find out where the IJN DD hit a mine (the replay doesn't show enemy mine hits), as this may give me info about likely vectors of approach and/or attack.

When I get the turn file open, I can check the location via the coordinates given in the combat report.

[Canoerebel]

12/23/44

L-Day+2: On the day, two enemy I-boats are sunk and the one that hit the mine is probably badly damaged. Given the large number of enemy subs previously sunk during the NoPac campaigns, this may be significant.

To this point, Erik seems to be relying on his air force and small naval assets (SSX, S, MTBs) to attack. He's also moving reinforcements overland, which is slow. At some point (perhaps already), I think he will conclude that the only way to save Wakkanai is to bring in reinforcements by sea. That would, in all probability, be bloody. He may be trying to soften up the Allied defenses before trying this. There's a chance he'll conclude the risk isn't worth it. But I think he'll do it, so I'm mulling over counters.

[Canoerebel]

12/23/44

L-Day+2: I don't think SSX-61 will survive the day. I'd say "the Alabama avenged," but it seems disproportional to gloat over the slapping of the mosquito that started a malaria epidemic.

[USSAmerica]

Hey Dan, I won't comment on the game as I'm reading both sides, except to say that it's been extremely entertaining. I really appreciate the way you present so much information as you weave the story in your AAR's.

[Canoerebel]

12/23/44

L-Day+2: I-37 finds Death Star but is destroyed. DS has remained in the same hex for a couple of days, so it'll have to move tomorrow.

Three days into the Wakkanai invasion, Erik has lost a decent number of subs and torpedo boats. The supply always seems endless to us undergoing the attacks, but I suppose they aren't.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

Hey Dan, I won't comment on the game as I'm reading both sides, except to say that it's been extremely entertaining. I really appreciate the way you present so much information as you weave the story in your AAR's.

Thanks, Mike. Thanks for reading.

[Canoerebel]

12/23/44

L-Day+2: Probably 15 reports of RO-43 being hit by search aircraft, plus other reports of hits on an unnamed sub (might also be RO-43). Get 'em, boys!

[Canoerebel]

12/23/44

L-Day+2: As the search phase draws to a conclusion and the air-attack phase begins, an enemy TF is sighted SE of the Kuriles. I don't think there's anything it can accomplish out that way, but I hope to figure out its composition and mission.

[Canoerebel]

12/23/44

L-Day+2: This hurts my feelings on two accounts. First, this TF only moved a couple of hexes and should have retired far towards Toyohara, meaning I either forget to set it correctly (unlikely this time) or the TF slowed down for reasons unknown. The second hurt is that Allied LRCAP didn't manhandle unescorted Jills.

[Canoerebel]

12/23/44

L-Day+2: Erik has posted a lot of LRCAP over Wakkanai (the airfield is in bad shape there) that will tangle with later Allied sweeps and bombing missions.

Here the LRCAP bolsters an escorted strike drawn to Allied DDs. That's part of my plan, on the notion that these raids will usually (not always) be counterproductive to the Japanese air force.

One balancing act is that I'd like to maintain my own LRCAP over the base to hinder Erik's ability to bring in reinforcments by air, but all the dogfighting over the island affects that.

But it's more important that I maintain combat ships to prevent reinforcement by sea than to hamper reinforcement by air. The latter can't handle heavy weapons, so that the infantrymen brought in are almost defenseless against Allied heavy weapons and armor. IE, I think I can win using this recipe. I think.

[Canoerebel]

12/23/44

L-Day+2: As expected, opposition over Asihagara is light. It's nice for Allied fighters to get in a good whack, because most of this turn their the ones getting hit.

This sweep is clearing the way for the bombers assigned to hit the airfield and the ground troops that might be heading north towards Wakkanai.

[Canoerebel]

12/23/44

L-Day+2: The wrong end of the equation for the Allies.

At this point, I'm beginning to develop a notion for how I wish to deploy the Allied air force tomorrow. It's reassuring to have notions, because the turns when I'm thinking, "Uh, what now?" are the hardest.

[Canoerebel]

12/23/44

L-Day+2: The sweepers did their job, now a number of bomb raids will target Ashigara airfield and ground troops. I'll show just one other - the biggest one, which targeted the airfield.

[Canoerebel]

12/23/44

L-Day+2: But first, here's the largest raid on Wakkanai. IJ fighters were a bit tuckered from the previous clashes, so the losses here aren't too one-sided for the Allies. Damage inflicted is slight.

[Canoerebel]

12/23/44

L-Day+2: The strongest Allied air strike of the day destroys some enemy fighters on the ground and whacks some supplies.

[Canoerebel]

Two random thoughts to splice in, as I continue to run the turn:

1. It seems the 68th Mixed Brigade is the only IJA unit at Asahikawa. If so it's going to be awhile before Erik can bring enough infantry forward to threaten the blocking hex. He's going to have to reinforce by sea.

2. Several days back, Erik pulled most of his fighter squadrons out of Thailand/Burma and sent them to NoPac.

[Canoerebel]

12/23/44

L-Day+2: Intel by fire.

[Lokasenna]

The SSX torpedoes don't do a lot of damage. I think "critical damage" is more of a multiplier on the damage done (which starts lower for the 45cm midget torps) than damage relative to the ship itself.

The SSX torpedo device has an effect of 772. The regular IJN submarine torpedoes, 53cm, have an effect of either 893 (type 95) or 661 (type 89, some of the early-war smaller submarines). That you didn't see "heavy damage" on Alabama despite 2 critical damage torpedo hits speaks to this difference in effect, I think.

[Canoerebel]

12/23/44

L-Day+2: Not a good mission for Avengers, and the few P-38Ls left on LRCAP are further tuckered out. I won't have much if anything left to intercept enemy air transports.

[Canoerebel]

12/23/44

L-Day+2: First afternoon air attack - once again, enemy strike aircraft can't score vs. Allied DDs.