OT: Corona virus

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

I use data diffused everyday at 1800 by Protezione Civile, the state's entity managing the emergency. I do not know where worldometers takes its data, but I strongly believe that the ones given by Protezione Civile are the correct ones.

I think also Kull had the same problem of worldometer giving other data for yesterday.


Given the situation, I suppose Protezione Civile's data are for sure more accurate than the ones given by anyone else.

Worldometers has the same source you do. The problem is the way Protezione Civil has been defining "new cases", which is different from the WHO standard followed by every other country in the world:

5210 new cases and 683 new deaths in Italy. 4th day in a row with daily new cases below the 6557 peak reached on March 21. Protezione Civile chief Borrelli, the person usually holding the daily press conference, is at home with a fever, while the former chief Bertolaso is now hospitalized in Milan after having tested positive to the virus

During the press conference, Protezione Civile officials were asked to clarify what the "change in active cases" ("incremento delle persone attualmente positive") really represents, after our website had raised the issue of Italian media reporting the change in active cases (a lower number) rather than the change in total cases (a higher number), incorrectly representing it as "newly infected" when, in fact, it represents the "change in active cases"

Newly infected, meaning the number of people who have tested positive to the virus in the last day, corresponds to the number Worldometer has always reported, which is the change in total cases in accordance with the international standards set by the WHO and followed by all countries. An important figure which can be compared to newly recovered, as we do in our charts.

The change in active cases (what most Italian media incorrectly label as "newly infected") is the result of the following formula: (newly infected) - (new deaths) - (new recoveries).

Sharing the goal of providing the correct interpretation of data, we are pleased to notice that a few days ago, one of the leading Italian newspapers, Corriere della Sera, began reporting the figures correctly

To repeat, "New Cases" is most definitely NOT determined by this formula: New Cases = (newly infected) - (new deaths) - (new recoveries)

Just checked, you're right. Thanks for the information: I really thought it was the same everywhere, instead, Protezione Civile is counting them differently (why?!).

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's encouraging to see the "flattening of the curve" for new cases in Italy. Today's number, which isn't shown on this chart, is essentially the same as yesterday's. A good trend now.**

**assuming the reporting is accurate

The reporting is not accurate at all. It's not that they are screwing up, it's that basically they cannot test millions and millions of people.

Those who are managing the emergency in Italy are convinced the total amount of cases can, and probably is, 10 (ten!) times more.


On the other side, we can assume that by far the vast majority of the tested people are symptomatic cases (from midly to severe symptoms) and, therefore, they are a sort of proxy for the total amount of infected. A lowering in midly/severe cases, probably means a lowering of new cases in general. Still, nobody it Italy thinks that number is even remotely accurate.





Regarding the flattening of the curve. There is a major risk. So far, there have been relatively few cases in southern Italy, but we don't know whether the epidemy will start over there as well. In that case, we would have a disaster, since southern Italy is barely capable of managing the standard medical needs of the population.
We will see during the week. If nothing happens this week as well, probably we can start being optimistic regarding the south.

[JohnDillworth]

Dispatches From the Front: "I'm with the Government, and I'm here to help"

I haven't had much time to check in lately. As I've alluded to I work for NYC. My particular job title is "Deputy Director of Critical Systems". I keep NYC's critical data centers and 911 call centers alive. I have been swapping days in Downtown Brooklyn with another DD so we don't come in contact because they can't really afford to lose both of us. One of my Brooklyn buildings also hosts one of the 2 911 call centers in the City, the other one is in the Bronx. I was the lead project manager for the design and building of that one. We are holding the line. I avoid the call taking floor as much as possible. Masks, gloves, and such are in short supply and are usually allocated to the field personnel. My agency is 95% off site working remotely. I have been deemed "critical staff" My data centers also host much of NYC's communication infrastructure. As almost the entire city is working remotely we are adding equipment at a rapid rate. So far we are keeping a pretty good handle on power and cooling. We have enough generator power to run a small city but power is not really the issue. Keeping clean, keeping healthy and keeping your distance has been he challenge. So far so good but we already have at least 2 confirmed cases. Luckily I did not have direct contact recently. The NYC Office of Emergency Management is in a park a few blocks away. Brooklyn Hospital Center is 2 blocks in the other direction. Yesterday I saw them back in 2 large refrigerated trailers. Shit is getting real. The other side is running up the score right now. NYC will survive this and this will make us better. Today, I am home on Long Island. Born and raised in Brooklyn, worked in NYC my whole life. Survived a terrorist bombing (1st World Trade Center), blackouts and Sandy. This is the worst by far. I am thankful I have a job to do and I can help. Now I am home today. The sun will be up soon and I am going to put on some music and go go for a nice long run. Back to the front in tomorrow morning. This is coming your way folks. Keep your distance, turn off the news, wash your hands and know we will be victorious. It is time to be at our best. Be human to each other.

[Yaab]

Now, when the virus has come full circle and awaits its return from the coast of California to Wuhan, is the time to revive the batbomb and release it over China. Leave no mouth left behind! Just cover it up as a famine relief or something. [8|]


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bat_bomb

[MakeeLearn]

How does the new Coronavirus compare with the flu?
3.25.20


https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html


"The new coronavirus causing COVID-19 has led to more than 454,000 illnesses and more than 20,550 deaths worldwide. For comparison, in the U.S. alone, the flu (also called influenza) has caused an estimated 38 million illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). "


"It's important to note that, because respiratory viruses cause similar symptoms, it can be difficult to distinguish different respiratory viruses based on symptoms alone, according to WHO."


"Though the death rate for COVID-19 is unclear, most research suggests it is higher than that of the seasonal flu.

In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. Another study of about 1,100 hospitalized patients in China, published Feb. 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that the overall death rate was slightly lower, around 1.4%."

[MakeeLearn]

Fauci says US needs to be prepared for Coronavirus to be cyclical
3.25.20

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-BB11I0s1

"Americans need to be prepared for the possibility that COVID-19 could become a seasonal disease, Dr. Anthony Fauci warned Wednesday.

Fauci told reporters during a White House briefing that more cases of the disease caused by the novel Coronavirus have begun to appear in the southern hemisphere, which is transitioning into colder seasons."

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's encouraging to see the "flattening of the curve" for new cases in Italy. Today's number, which isn't shown on this chart, is essentially the same as yesterday's. A good trend now.**

**assuming the reporting is accurate

The reporting is not accurate at all. It's not that they are screwing up, it's that basically they cannot test millions and millions of people.

Those who are managing the emergency in Italy are convinced the total amount of cases can, and probably is, 10 (ten!) times more.


On the other side, we can assume that by far the vast majority of the tested people are symptomatic cases (from midly to severe symptoms) and, therefore, they are a sort of proxy for the total amount of infected. A lowering in midly/severe cases, probably means a lowering of new cases in general. Still, nobody it Italy thinks that number is even remotely accurate.


Regarding the flattening of the curve. There is a major risk. So far, there have been relatively few cases in southern Italy, but we don't know whether the epidemy will start over there as well. In that case, we would have a disaster, since southern Italy is barely capable of managing the standard medical needs of the population.
We will see during the week. If nothing happens this week as well, probably we can start being optimistic regarding the south.

The studies I've seen from Wuhan and the Diamond Princess showed around 15-20% asymptomatic case estimates.

If we look at mortality today (7,503), rate it at 0.5% (low estimate based on high testing and low mortality rate of South Korea), and then calculate total cases, we might see that as an indication of where Italy was about 10-14 days ago for "real" cases. That gives me 1,500,600. [X(] I think that's about 2.46% of the Italian population, but if you take Northern Italy's three most affected provinces, it's about 7.89% of their population.

Knowing case numbers continued to grow over the past 14 days it's conceivable, using this kind of model, that 10-15% of the Northern Italian population has been infected.

[obvert]

After looking at the anomaly that has been Japan and it's low number of cases yesterday, ti looks like a new surge is threatening their keep everything open approach.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/ ... nyP6S2cYXo

[MakeeLearn]

So, if there were no Coronavirus and the Flu deaths rates had doubled this year what would the response have been?!!!

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
...Survived a terrorist bombing (1st World Trade Center), blackouts and Sandy. This is the worst by far.

In what ways?

[Yaab]

Sleeping with the Enemy

Doc: "Uhm, your curves are so nice..."
Covid: "Thank you, doc. So flattening of you".

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Yaab

Sleeping with the Enemy

Doc: "Uhm, your curves are so nice..."
Covid: "Thank you, doc. So flattening of you".

Covid:"Just wait till you see my binding sites."

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The first human-derived isolate is from Dec 3, 2019

This does NOT mean the first human infection was from that date. It took some time for the infection to amplify and come to the attention of doctors in Wuhan. It takes 1 or 2 or 3 doctors talking to each other over lunch. "Man that guy could not take a joke! His O2 sat is 95% and then 8 hrs later he is dead!"

I know it sounds cynical but that's how it is....then the second guys says...."Shit, that sounds like SARS!" because he is a bit older and remembers SARS...and then they all leave their food on the table.

They traced case zero to Nov 17. The first case who presented in a hospital which they diagnosed retroactively. I remember distinctly as that is the day my wife returned from a trip to China. However a geneological study on the virus went back to mid-late-October for its origin.

This was some of what fed the hype of it being a military developed virus, as there was a military games in Wuhan in mid-October. Since also disproven.

Yes, makes sense. Whoever they got the first isolate from had to be sick before somebody thought it was a good idea to stick a swab up his nose and the hybridization had to take place before that.

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's encouraging to see the "flattening of the curve" for new cases in Italy. Today's number, which isn't shown on this chart, is essentially the same as yesterday's. A good trend now.**

**assuming the reporting is accurate

The reporting is not accurate at all. It's not that they are screwing up, it's that basically they cannot test millions and millions of people.

Those who are managing the emergency in Italy are convinced the total amount of cases can, and probably is, 10 (ten!) times more.


On the other side, we can assume that by far the vast majority of the tested people are symptomatic cases (from midly to severe symptoms) and, therefore, they are a sort of proxy for the total amount of infected. A lowering in midly/severe cases, probably means a lowering of new cases in general. Still, nobody it Italy thinks that number is even remotely accurate.


Regarding the flattening of the curve. There is a major risk. So far, there have been relatively few cases in southern Italy, but we don't know whether the epidemy will start over there as well. In that case, we would have a disaster, since southern Italy is barely capable of managing the standard medical needs of the population.
We will see during the week. If nothing happens this week as well, probably we can start being optimistic regarding the south.

The studies I've seen from Wuhan and the Diamond Princess showed around 15-20% asymptomatic case estimates.

If we look at mortality today (7,503), rate it at 0.5% (low estimate based on high testing and low mortality rate of South Korea), and then calculate total cases, we might see that as an indication of where Italy was about 10-14 days ago for "real" cases. That gives me 1,500,600. [X(] I think that's about 2.46% of the Italian population, but if you take Northern Italy's three most affected provinces, it's about 7.89% of their population.

Knowing case numbers continued to grow over the past 14 days it's conceivable, using this kind of model, that 10-15% of the Northern Italian population has been infected.

Even if you take a very low estimate of 500.000 it still means that in northern Italy we have half a million infected people. On the other side, it also explains the relatively high mortality rate experienced by Italy (and probably same goes with Spain).

I do believe that we are in the range of 500k-1M for northern Italy only.

[Cap Mandrake]

We moved all 12 pediatricians in the group to one building and moved all the adult docs out to prevent the kids from giving it to the vulnerable seniors. We screen everyone by telehealth. If we can establish a probable dx over the phone or video-link we send their Rx electronically. If they have respiratory or GI sx we send them to the "sick building" where one poor bastard works 3 days in row and burns his/her clothes at night. Whoever has to see the newborns in the hospital does that for a whole week and takes night call and nothing else. We still have to bring in the 2 month to 2 year olds for vaccines or we will have another epidemic.

Telehealth is not quite ready technologically. You need good bandwith on both ends and the caller has to have a good phone or laptop. We use ZOOM, which is good software but patients have a hard time following the instructions and it takes a lot of staff time. Patient phone call volume is massive (at least 10x baseline). We haven't solved that yet. The web-based patient messaging secure health information system is working well but it technologically intimidating for most parents.

Small problems compared to Spain and Italy and New York

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus






The reporting is not accurate at all. It's not that they are screwing up, it's that basically they cannot test millions and millions of people.

Those who are managing the emergency in Italy are convinced the total amount of cases can, and probably is, 10 (ten!) times more.


On the other side, we can assume that by far the vast majority of the tested people are symptomatic cases (from midly to severe symptoms) and, therefore, they are a sort of proxy for the total amount of infected. A lowering in midly/severe cases, probably means a lowering of new cases in general. Still, nobody it Italy thinks that number is even remotely accurate.


Regarding the flattening of the curve. There is a major risk. So far, there have been relatively few cases in southern Italy, but we don't know whether the epidemy will start over there as well. In that case, we would have a disaster, since southern Italy is barely capable of managing the standard medical needs of the population.
We will see during the week. If nothing happens this week as well, probably we can start being optimistic regarding the south.

The studies I've seen from Wuhan and the Diamond Princess showed around 15-20% asymptomatic case estimates.

If we look at mortality today (7,503), rate it at 0.5% (low estimate based on high testing and low mortality rate of South Korea), and then calculate total cases, we might see that as an indication of where Italy was about 10-14 days ago for "real" cases. That gives me 1,500,600. [X(] I think that's about 2.46% of the Italian population, but if you take Northern Italy's three most affected provinces, it's about 7.89% of their population.

Knowing case numbers continued to grow over the past 14 days it's conceivable, using this kind of model, that 10-15% of the Northern Italian population has been infected.

Even if you take a very low estimate of 500.000 it still means that in northern Italy we have half a million infected people. On the other side, it also explains the relatively high mortality rate experienced by Italy (and probably same goes with Spain).

I do believe that we are in the range of 500k-1M for northern Italy only.

Yes, all that makes sense. Same was true in Wuhan, a city of 11-15 million. Once they imposed a strict lockdown they weren't testing anyone in their apartments

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

We moved all 12 pediatricians in the group to one building and moved all the adult docs out to prevent the kids from giving it to the vulnerable seniors. We screen everyone by telehealth. If we can establish a probable dx over the phone or video-link we send their Rx electronically. If they have respiratory or GI sx we send them to the "sick building" where one poor bastard works 3 days in row and burns his/her clothes at night. Whoever has to see the newborns in the hospital does that for a whole week and takes night call and nothing else. We still have to bring in the 2 month to 2 year olds for vaccines or we will have another epidemic.

Telehealth is not quite ready technologically. You need good bandwith on both ends and the caller has to have a good phone or laptop. We use ZOOM, which is good software but patients have a hard time following the instructions and it takes a lot of staff time. Patient phone call volume is massive (at least 10x baseline). We haven't solved that yet. The web-based patient messaging secure health information system is working well but it technologically intimidating for most parents.

Small problems compared to Spain and Italy and New York

The Doc really burns his/her clothes at night? Doesn't that set off the sprinklers?

[Wuffer]

Further confirmation for the high quantity of asymtomatic cases came from Iceland, with some 360 000 citizen they started random screening (will includes the source lster)
And that's explain Germany's quite low fatalities too, they capture a lot of these mild cases too.

" Currently, Germany is doing more than half a million Corona Tests per week. The Head of the Charite, Heyo Kroemer adds that Germany started testing earlier than most of the countries hit by the pandemic."

Later on, they are explaining a new research network with the Government to get a better overview of the patient's health and conditions."
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/men ... 85c6b00282 (in German)

Found s translation: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/com mensch/fp9v7y/germany_is_doing_more_than_500000_covid_19_tests/

AND there was also a Chinese paper which confirms this, too.

Although they warned that these cases are ticking timebombs, as 3 up to 10 % later developed symptomatics and will become potentiel spreaders. (Link to follow)

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
...Survived a terrorist bombing (1st World Trade Center), blackouts and Sandy. This is the worst by far.

In what ways?

9/11 and Sandy were "events". They happened and their immediate physical effects were localized and understood. Sandy was bigger. We are still cleaning up. This is a different animal. After 9/11 we had the refrigerated trailers. We collected our dead and filled those trailers. Now, we are staging the trailers ahead of time. For what is coming. Brooklyn Hospital (and all the others) do not need those trailers today. However, ICU is beyond full and a large number of the people in ICU will go to those trailers. Once you go into ICU the numbers are not so good. Also, I know the Cities limits. I know how many 911 calls we get, I know how many fireman we have, I know how many police we have, I know how many EMT's we have, I know how many call takers and dispatchers we have, I know how many beds we have. I know we will soon run out of all of these things. The highways are mostly empty. There are no police to patrol those highways. I drove to work at 5AM yesterday and the highways are now a lawless place. Mostly the suburban assholes. No speed limits, no lanes, no rules. When we run short of police does this happen on the streets? We have reserves. State Troopers, National Guard. Time to mobilize those. I haven't heard anything but I suspect a curfew is coming. It is the sensible thing to do. Transit, garbage collection, homeless services......all of these things are starting to run on the springs. I suspect we will be OK, but it is going to get much worse before it gets better. The good news, at least for NYC, is that we have much better infrastructure than the rest of the country and due to past misdeeds we have a balanced budget amendment. So as bad as this will be for the economy, and it will be bad, we started the year with no debt. Most of the rest of the country is not in such good shape. Also, we will be the first ones through this. And we have solid leadership from our Governor. But it will get much worse in the next 3 weeks

[Cap Mandrake]

Wow. That sounds near apocalyptic. What about sending hospitalized patients not yet in respiratory failure to outlying hospitals (50-70 miles away..Philadelphia, Baltimore, CT) via ambulance BEFORE they need a vent?.