Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

[Lowpe]

As I ponder the map and the strategic situation I think a few things have been accomplished or proven.

1. A temporary stalemate in Burma. The Allied forces moved out of Prome (25% less units), the building up in Bassein (and base building there) and the lack of bombing of Prome point to either a renewed thrust at Rangoon, or across the river north of Rangoon but south of Prome. Or, and most likely given the low number of vehicles at Bassein, simply base building.

That the Allies are resorting to night bombing again, points to Allied concern at the growing fighter strength (both in number and quality) of the Japanese fighter forces.

Will the Allies pursue a new strategy in Burma or simply be content to tie up Japanese forces for:

2. Given a stalemate in Burma....we can look for the Allies to push elsewhere, and they are really well placed to push in the Marshalls. And in the Marshalls, the Allies have been bold using their carriers twice to run sweep missions. There exists here the potential to engage the American carriers one last time very favorably. It just takes fuel...it might even happen this next day.

3. The Allies will continue with an aggressive anti-merchant ship submarine program. I need to counter this more strongly.

4. The concept of a Guerilla Air Force, hiding most of the time, only to swoop in and hit him hard works well but easy targets are disappearing as the Allies adjust. But what are the long term consequences of this strategy? It certainly conserves supplies for Japan...which is a major goal.

5. Against all odds, the Japanese Empire is doing pretty well since August of 42! It will only go downhill...

[Lowpe]

May 8th, 1943

Night bombing of Moulmein. AA is pretty stiff there, several 10cm guns, no lasting damage done and at least one bomber shot down.

Allied troops in Bassein move towards Rangoon. Hm.,

An xak gets torpedoed but makes port ok near Manila.

The KB gets spotted, DL 1/1, near Nauru, by a bomber. Nothing else spotted...shucks. I was hoping for a light spotting on the xakls.

[PaxMondo]

You are mid-43 now. He will have Hellcats on all his CV's by now. Keep that in mind ... your A6M's have now really become shotguns; you need to expect to pretty much replace your air groups each time you use the KB from now on. The point being, it is more expensive for you to use the KB, but that doesn't preclude its use at all.

I would be picking my spots to defend and getting those set up. Get a few ENG's and get the AF's and forts built up that you will need along with a few garrison troops.

In 6 months or so the B29 will start to show. That means the DEI oil fields become vulnerable. The withdrawal from the DEI is a REALLY hard part of the game for the IJ. Very difficult to achieve coherently. After Burma, I hate the DEI the most. Most of the recent AAR's are a litany of units trapped without supply and no hope of rescue. Just so easy to get overrun and bypassed.

For me this game is all about looking 6 - 12 months ahead. I love it.

[Lowpe]

The latest sitrep in Burma....you can see some reinforcements heading towards Rangoon. I am guessing a Division? I am not sure what his goal is here, my troops in Rangoon are fully prepared, dug in (some up to level 5) and looking to fight in that nasty terrain.

I guess he is intent on really trying to capture my troops in Burma, an admirable goal, but why he doesn't push on Magwe and its 286 oil per day production is beyond me. Really, he could have destroyed that oil in July of 1942 or so and I am very pleased to have it still pumping here in May 43. He has destroyed the refineries though, curious.

I have managed to raise supply levels in Burma substantially by playing with supply demand arrows, but I really need to monitor them daily....I have a fresh infantry division very close to Pegu...

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

You are mid-43 now. He will have Hellcats on all his CV's by now. Keep that in mind ... your A6M's have now really become shotguns; you need to expect to pretty much replace your air groups each time you use the KB from now on. The point being, it is more expensive for you to use the KB, but that doesn't preclude its use at all.

I would be picking my spots to defend and getting those set up. Get a few ENG's and get the AF's and forts built up that you will need along with a few garrison troops.

In 6 months or so the B29 will start to show. That means the DEI oil fields become vulnerable. The withdrawal from the DEI is a REALLY hard part of the game for the IJ. Very difficult to achieve coherently. After Burma, I hate the DEI the most. Most of the recent AAR's are a litany of units trapped without supply and no hope of rescue. Just so easy to get overrun and bypassed.

For me this game is all about looking 6 - 12 months ahead. I love it.

Thanks...trying to be very careful here with the KB -- it is withdrawing, but the supply ships will run into Nauru while a strong surface group will steam in and then out offering some protection during the night I hope.

I feel that the KB presents a credible deterrent in the Centpac, and she can do that as easily in port hidden as she can out in the blue...

[Lowpe]

Operation Brisbane:

The Emilies are gathered; I need to get some recon on Brisbane as to pick targets, and get a couple of subs into position.

My thought was to hit the industry here, but if there are other tempting targets I may go for them instead.

I wonder if the manpower there is sufficient to trash some industry with fires?

[MrBlizzard]

Magwe refineries enigma.
I try to guess, as you say it's very strange your opponent bombed refineries, Japan has refining capacity in excess, it's not a critical target... maybe he made a mistake selecting refineries instead than oilfields, and afterwards he didn't check again and now he is convinced they're destroyed. Basically he is unaware they're still working

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: MrBlizzard

Magwe refineries enigma.
I try to guess, as you say it's very strange your opponent bombed refineries, Japan has refining capacity in excess, it's not a critical target... maybe he made a mistake selecting refineries instead than oilfields, and afterwards he didn't check again and now he is convinced they're destroyed. Basically he is unaware they're still working

That is a big oversight, but you may be right. I just dunno.

Here is a snapshot of Oz, been like this for a while. I lost a splinter of a tank unit running around down south...it was eventually bombed out of existence. I am merely waiting for the Aussies to show up before evacuating out...

[Lowpe]

I have a few factories for planes that I can bounce bad into r&d or production. Not sure what to do...

I have no r&d on the Ki 94; Shinden; the Ki83 good end war fighters. I could go after them.

I could enhance my research into the Sam J...

I could go after some interesting planes to me like Patsy or a kamikaze the Tsurugi or the Randy 102c NF. the Randy 102a might be decent high altitude fighter...comes fairly early but is slow compared to what it would be tangling with high up (plus two engines).

I could do nothing and save the supplies...which is what I actually am leaning towards. Just letting the factories go idle.

[Lowpe]

May 9th, 1943

In the dark of night, 17%, two American destroyers are a little surprised to encounter such a strong force at Nauru, but they are well led and manage to execute a fighting withdraw suffering almost no damage.

But the IJN does protect the convoy bringing much needed supplies into Nauru.

I had been hoping the catch three CAs -- oh well.

[Lowpe]

During the rest of the day the Allied air force rests...but two Chinese Corp are beaten up in China: 1 surrenders and the other retreats with heavy losses.

Too bad the KB was spotted yesterday, as anticipated Allied carriers sortied out exactly where I thought they would this time protected by a host of 2 ship screens.

Nauru gets 4000 supplies...

[Spidery]

I have no r&d on the Ki 94; Shinden; the Ki83 good end war fighters. I could go after them.

I could enhance my research into the Sam J...

I could go after some interesting planes to me like Patsy or a kamikaze the Tsurugi or the Randy 102c NF. the Randy 102a might be decent high altitude fighter...comes fairly early but is slow compared to what it would be tangling with high up (plus two engines).

Are you building any of the engines for the Ki-94-II? Since the rocket loses so much at altitude you might want to go for that if you have the engines. Otherwise, suggest the Ki-102c to get a good late war night fighter.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Spidery
Are you building any of the engines for the Ki-94-II? Since the rocket loses so much at altitude you might want to go for that if you have the engines. Otherwise, suggest the Ki-102c to get a good late war night fighter.

I think I am done with r&d night fighters...in that I have spent enough supply on them, and playing downfall has opened my eyes up to how tough it is to defend against the b29. Max nf squadrons, tracom pilots, and Frances, Peggy and Dinah, good to go here I think.

Ki-94-II comes in 2/46...hm. I am building the engine...how many factories to get her in a reasonable time assuming engine bonus?

OTOH, I had been thinking about flying low CAP, Oscar IVs, Frank, and 202s all low stacked between 8K and 15K maybe up to 20K. Throw Sam J in there too. One squadron would eat the dive bonus, but then the 202 should be able to pop up and counter dive.

[Lowpe]

Well, we will see what the allied carriers do this turn...he has plenty of screens, and I think an invasion force at Tarawa or maybe it is just a bombardment force there. Hard to tell, my naval search pilots are pretty poor during the day.

KB, SAG, are loitering within range of Nauru, and land base air is massing. Nauru is within normal range of the Lilly DB, and I have 5 squadrons of those beauties...I also moved in a squadron of trained Jakes for night bombing - I doubt they will do anything else than get shot down, but you never know. Lots of Betties in the area and Emilies.

Having seen my strong surface fleet will he attempt a rapid fast strike to nail them, or will he pull back?

[Lowpe]

Burma

Looks like a push on Rangoon...which I just reinforced a little more, and will send some more troops there.

Perhaps a big Fighter presence out of Moulmein?

Very close to the Monsoon.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I have a few factories for planes that I can bounce bad into r&d or production. Not sure what to do...

I have no r&d on the Ki 94; Shinden; the Ki83 good end war fighters. I could go after them.

I could enhance my research into the Sam J...

I could go after some interesting planes to me like Patsy or a kamikaze the Tsurugi or the Randy 102c NF. the Randy 102a might be decent high altitude fighter...comes fairly early but is slow compared to what it would be tangling with high up (plus two engines).

I could do nothing and save the supplies...which is what I actually am leaning towards. Just letting the factories go idle.

I always need NF's, and just because of numbers, most of the groups tend to be IJA fighter groups. That means I really have to have a good IJA NF. IF you haven't already, I would get those factories on your choice of the IJA NF that you are going to commit to.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


I think I am done with r&d night fighters...in that I have spent enough supply on them, and playing downfall has opened my eyes up to how tough it is to defend against the b29. Max nf squadrons, tracom pilots, and Frances, Peggy and Dinah, good to go here I think.

I agree, Downfall and Armegeddon both teach a lot of bitter lessons, and countering night bombing by b-29's is one of them.

I beleive, but I don't have the game open now, that only the Dinah of that list can actually catch a B-29. That means only those very few planes that are actually in the air at altitude will ever be able to engage ... all the rest will launch to no effect. Just a thought.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
I agree, Downfall and Armegeddon both teach a lot of bitter lessons, and countering night bombing by b-29's is one of them.

I beleive, but I don't have the game open now, that only the Dinah of that list can actually catch a B-29. That means only those very few planes that are actually in the air at altitude will ever be able to engage ... all the rest will launch to no effect. Just a thought.

I don't think that is always true but I do know it plays a part. Frances was a great killer for Obvert and in my testing in Downfall has done very, very well. Peggy is unknown and not that much slower than the B29...Myrt has done well in Downfall which surprised me.

Myrt is IJNAF though...but in future games I will go after it more aggressively.

[topeverest]

If the allied player is dynamic and can perform leapfrog amphibious operations, I would worry quite a bit. On the other hand,
if he is more linear, you could be better off IMHO.

It's still concerning in Burma, despite the real estate you can afford to lose. PB is pretty close.

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Agree with your assessment (too many US troops), which is a good thing for the IJ ... [;)]

[Lowpe]

May 10, 1943

5 days to Monsoon.

Night bombing: small raids at Tavoy and Toungoo.

Daytime:

Moulmein feels the full fury of a rested Allied bomber force and is shut down.

Bassein goes to size 4 AF; troops still moving into Rangoon.

China: force the surrender of another Chinese Corp.

Nauru: American carriers move south, screens move east, no engagements of any kind.