OT: Corona virus

[obvert]

An article responding to the Oxford study from a few days ago I posted that in one scenario stated there could be up to tens of millions already infected with the virus.

This moderates those claims a bit, while also stating some good figures and ranges for what we might expect actual numbers to be. The author is an epidemiologist, Adam Kucharski.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -modelling

There is growing evidence that, on average, people who show Covid-19 symptoms have a 1–1.5% risk of death. This has been estimated in studies of data from Wuhan, early international cases, and the Diamond Princess (with data adjusted to account for the older age of the cruise ship passengers). But this 1–1.5% risk just tells us what happens to people who have clear symptoms. If, as the above studies suggest, only 20–80% of infections come with symptoms, it would mean that for every 100,000 people who get infected with Covid-19, we would expect somewhere in the region of 200–1,200 deaths (ie between 100,000 x 20% x 1% and 100,000 x 80% x 1.5%).

[alanschu]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We've been monitoring this chart of mortality in Italy for quite awhile. It seemed to plateau a few days back, and the Italian members of this group have expressed some degree of confidence that this is the case.

If so, it also bears on related numbers and trends - the exponential increase period in Italy's deaths lasted about two weeks (roughly beginning 3/8). There should also be a correlation between onset of drastic countermeasures and the flattening of the curve. I can't remember exactly when Italy imposed those, but I think around 3/12 or 3/14?) And Italy's outbreak is fairly clumped geographically. There are concerns whether new bell curves will ensue in the other regions.

I know North Italy was getting shut downs that weekend prior (March 8th). I'm not sure when the rest of Italy followed suit.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

but it looks like that's starting to fail even their cultural norms.

Well part of our American charm is out diversity. We got 50 different states doing 50 different things and in those 50 states lots of people are doing their own thing. A more uniform culture might be an an advantage here, as would a more controlled society, but I don't think Americans work that way. In the end we will be victorious, but at a price we can't imagine. Won't be the last one of these I suspect. Once we fix the problem we need to fix the response mechanism

Fix the response mechanism-aye. And a whole bunch of other stuff too in terms of preparation, long-term vision for future vaccines, multivalent vaccine technology, ready vaccine availability for possible / likely future diseases, domestic re-shoring of critical PPE and medications, and so on and so on...

If we're willing to shovel $USD 2.5T onto this thing as a short-term economic Band-Aide, why not a "Manhattan Project" level of commitment to upgrading our creaky public health infrastructure? It's gotta be done.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

South Korea and the Untied States found their first case on the same day. We are lagging and yet Japan and South Korea are winning their containment fight. If only we had done something with the last 3 weeks in February yet we did little. If only we had not cut the CDC office in China by 75% ......if only......but we didn't. We lost our containment fight. Other are winning their so I suspect there are things others did better than us. You can point all the finders you want at any country you want and science just laughs in your face. This is all over the world

With all due respect, noone is winning the 'containment' fight. Some are winning the 'reporting' fight or the 'response' fight better than others though.

I rate that "mostly true". Antarctica and the International Space Station are winning the containment fight

[Canoerebel]

Oops. Thanks for catching that, Uncivil Engineer.

ORIGINAL: Uncivil Engineer

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

When Korea's numbers were first listed here a few weeks ago, the totals included 51 deaths and 118 recoveries. Since then 80 deaths and 4,000 recoveries. Using those two figures yields a 0.2% mortality rate.**

** 80/4000 = .02 or 2%, NOT 0.2%

or is this not the calculation you did?

I think it actually should be calculated 80/4080, deaths/total = .0196 or 1.96%

[Canoerebel]

The first story that Hollywood will produce from this surely will be that US jet that flew to Wuhan to remove American citizens. I don't have any idea what transpired, but if any of the passengers had the virus, and if any of the crew didn't receive adequate training and gear and ending catching it, and if the virus then spread to points in the USA, it'll make a compelling story (even if Hollywood gets all kinds of creative with "based on a true story" liberties).

There's an old saying in the legal profession that "bad cases make bad law." IE, if somebody committed an atrocious crime, the legal system will often contort itself to make the conviction stick through appeals, even if the precedents set are malodorous and later prove problematic. The same principal probably applies throughout society and disciplines, so that sudden emergencies make us do things that are later questioned in hindsight. Kinda like Abraham Lincoln suspending the writ of habeas corpus to get the nation through the real civil war period of the Civil War.

[Chickenboy]

I'm intrigued by the pattern of disease domestically. NYC and surrounds are still circa 60% of our national caseload. For an area of what-give or take-14 million people? So roughly 4.2% of our population has 60% of our national cases.

Case counts in the other big cities: Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston haven't moved nearly that much.

Locally, San Antonio area has less than 100 cases. I can't keep up with individual cases as much these days, but the vast majority of them until recently have been travel-related. Limited community spread. Houston, TX (soon to become the country's third most populous metropolitan area for all you home demographers out there) has a similarly small number. If the trend holds, I'd ask what is different about these urban centers than New York City per se. I have some ideas, but I'd like for the locals to put in their two bits about why they think New York City's metropolitan area is such a hotbed of disease compared to some other really big metro areas in this country.

I think there's more evidence to suggest that there's "New York City and then there's everywhere else in the US." Which may be an encouraging prospect-for everyone not in New York City that is.

All of the major metropolitan areas in this state have been proactive in shutting things down. Most Texas schools were on Spring break the first week in March (typically a week before most of the rest of the country). Many school districts (including my kids') slapped on an extension onto that time during the break. At first, it was until March 20. Then that was extended to April 6. Now it's April 24. So as far as our schools are concerned-we've been in de facto 'lockdown' for 20 days as of today. That will continue another 29 days at a minimum.

Statewide and county/city lockdown mandates have come through in the interim. These 'essential worker only' mandates are in effect at least through April 9 here in San Antonio.

Did New York City serve as an immediate warning for us here in Texas? Or were we watching Italy's agony and extrapolating that back here?

Does this buttress the argument that the United States-with its disparate people and regions-really doesn't operate on a 'one size fits all' national mandate?

[Cap Mandrake]

Clearly we need larger inventories of N-95 masks (inexpensive) and more emergency ventilator reserves (very expensive).

The number of strategic reserve ventilators owned by Homeland Security is said to be 5000 to 30,000 (it's a secret). I have a feeling it's more than 5000 because we are sending 4000 to New York.

What we DON'T need is foreign "partners" keeping secrets about emergent diseases.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

South Korea and the Untied States found their first case on the same day. We are lagging and yet Japan and South Korea are winning their containment fight. If only we had done something with the last 3 weeks in February yet we did little. If only we had not cut the CDC office in China by 75% ......if only......but we didn't. We lost our containment fight. Other are winning their so I suspect there are things others did better than us. You can point all the finders you want at any country you want and science just laughs in your face. This is all over the world

With all due respect, noone is winning the 'containment' fight. Some are winning the 'reporting' fight or the 'response' fight better than others though.

I rate that "mostly true". Antarctica and the International Space Station are winning the containment fight

Hey. Papua-New Guinea only has one case too. Is Kuru protective?

[Canoerebel]

Chickenboy,

The federalism aspects of America's response will indeed make fascinating studies later on. Early on in this thread, a number of folks thought federalism would play a negative role, but thus far that doesn't appear to be the case.

As with Texas, my state of Georgia reacted at a state, county and local level much more quickly than many other jurisdictions, including some in Europe. Not because we're "better," but because we had the benefit of going later in the process, gauging from and adapting to what was going on elsewhere. Plus we had the inherit flexibility to use judgment at the local level.

I don't know if that would work in other places or nations or political systems, but I like the way it works here.

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I'm intrigued by the pattern of disease domestically. NYC and surrounds are still circa 60% of our national caseload. For an area of what-give or take-14 million people? So roughly 4.2% of our population has 60% of our national cases.

Case counts in the other big cities: Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston haven't moved nearly that much.

Locally, San Antonio area has less than 100 cases. I can't keep up with individual cases as much these days, but the vast majority of them until recently have been travel-related. Limited community spread. Houston, TX (soon to become the country's third most populous metropolitan area for all you home demographers out there) has a similarly small number. If the trend holds, I'd ask what is different about these urban centers than New York City per se. I have some ideas, but I'd like for the locals to put in their two bits about why they think New York City's metropolitan area is such a hotbed of disease compared to some other really big metro areas in this country.

I think there's more evidence to suggest that there's "New York City and then there's everywhere else in the US." Which may be an encouraging prospect-for everyone not in New York City that is.

All of the major metropolitan areas in this state have been proactive in shutting things down. Most Texas schools were on Spring break the first week in March (typically a week before most of the rest of the country). Many school districts (including my kids') slapped on an extension onto that time during the break. At first, it was until March 20. Then that was extended to April 6. Now it's April 24. So as far as our schools are concerned-we've been in de facto 'lockdown' for 20 days as of today. That will continue another 29 days at a minimum.

Statewide and county/city lockdown mandates have come through in the interim. These 'essential worker only' mandates are in effect at least through April 9 here in San Antonio.

Did New York City serve as an immediate warning for us here in Texas? Or were we watching Italy's agony and extrapolating that back here?

Does this buttress the argument that the United States-with its disparate people and regions-really doesn't operate on a 'one size fits all' national mandate?

[Canoerebel]

Chickenboy, to answer another question you posed, my strong perception is that Georgia reacted to Italy and Europe rather than the US, though developing situations in Seattle, California, New York et al helped confirm the impressions drawn.

[Cap Mandrake]

The US Congress acted very early in the process.

They sold their stock portfolios.

[Canoerebel]

We're all aware that Germany has been doing better than many other European countries, and we've discussed possible reasons here.

These graphs from Worldometers are of interest. You can see that the number of deaths in Germany is beginning to rise noticeably. On the other hand it seems that the number of new cases has plateaued. As many have noted in here, mortality lags behind the new cases, which is what we're seeing.

If these numbers are accurate it could be that Germany's death rate will soon level off (unless the number of cases hasn't actually plateaued, but we'll know more about that soon).

[Chickenboy]

I find the 'relative size' national problem to be interesting as well. By sorting on the number of cases per million population, a different picture emerges. One can brush aside Vatican City here, but size-wise Switzerland, Iceland and Luxembourg are having a greater national challenge than Italy, Spain or Germany. The Swiss leading the charge in terms percentage of their population affected with this thing? Really? Counter-intuitive perhaps. But it might explain the northern / cooler climate argument=worst hit if one filters out the larger 'noise' of the raw case numbers of other larger countries.

[Canoerebel]

Excerpt below from this breaking story getting some big headlines here and there: https://news.yahoo.com/us-virus-deaths- ... 24116.html

A variety of outlets are touting this as a "shocking" total of 80,000 dead in the US in four months. That's serious, but if true its 2x or 3x seasonal flu over about the same amount of time. Earlier projections were wildly higher, so shouldn't this be comparatively good news?

Remember early projections, like the Oz think tank (or university) study that came up with seven scenarios, the best of which had 17 million deaths worldwide? We're still on course to deal with numbers utterly unlike that.

Some of this is in good faith. As JohnD noted above, varying numbers a bit has huge consequences when dealing with exponential equations. But the dadgum media.

[JohnDillworth]

[/quote]

I'm intrigued by the pattern of disease domestically. NYC and surrounds are still circa 60% of our national caseload. For an area of what-give or take-14 million people? So roughly 4.2% of our population has 60% of our national cases.

NYC is kind of a cross roads of the world. Many cities could say that but none of them have the diversity NYC has. I've been working a photography project in Jackson Heights, Queens for the last few years. This is the most diverse part of the most diverse borough, of the most diverse city on earth. I could rattle off 50 different nationalities and then in a few minutes think of the 20 I missed. Every flavor of South America, Asia, India and the Caribbean are the most populous. We even have a Little Tibet. Sherpaville, a neighborhood in Little Tibet is the best place to go for dumplings. I mention this because all these folks travel. Most of these folks eat at least 1 meal a day from a street cart. I eat at least 2 meals a week from these carts. Queens has all of NYC's airports and one right in Jackson Heights. These folks travel, they live their social lives on the streets, they are also dying in increasing numbers. Elmhurst Hospital is right here. And today, it is ground zero for Covid death in NYC. I believe it's diversity and size made it the epicenter of the outbreak in the USA. It is just first. Other areas will be hit just as hard. It will just take time. Not much time, but a couple of weeks. Louisiana suffers because of Mardi Gras. Florida will have hell to pay because of it's older population and failure to throttle spring break. It will get to the rest of the country soon enough. Follow the transportation hubs. The Southern Hemisphere will be equally effected. It will just take a bit of time

[Canoerebel]

Italy's numbers just updated.

Mortality down a bit from yesterday, new cases up a bit, both numbers still below the peak numbers and seemingly consistent with the plateauing of the virus there.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

NYC is kind of a cross roads of the world. Many cities could say that but none of them have the diversity NYC has. I've been working a photography project in Jackson Heights, Queens for the last few years. This is the most diverse part of the most diverse borough, of the most diverse city on earth. I could rattle off 50 different nationalities and then in a few minutes think of the 20 I missed. Every flavor of South America, Asia, India and the Caribbean are the most populous. We even have a Little Tibet. Sherpaville, a neighborhood in Little Tibet is the best place to go for dumplings. I mention this because all these folks travel. Most of these folks eat at least 1 meal a day from a street cart. I eat at least 2 meals a week from these carts. Queens has all of NYC's airports and one right in Jackson Heights. These folks travel, they live their social lives on the streets, they are also dying in increasing numbers. Elmhurst Hospital is right here. And today, it is ground zero for Covid death in NYC. I believe it's diversity and size made it the epicenter of the outbreak in the USA. It is just first. Other areas will be hit just as hard. It will just take time. Not much time, but a couple of weeks. Louisiana suffers because of Mardi Gras. Florida will have hell to pay because of it's older population and failure to throttle spring break. It will get to the rest of the country soon enough. Follow the transportation hubs. The Southern Hemisphere will be equally effected. It will just take a bit of time

Interesting take about the diversity of that area, John. But I'd leave room for optimistic outcomes for non-NYC areas here too. It may very well be that the unique diversity and intermingling you see in the daily life there isn't reflected elsewhere.

Having lived in / visited most other big metro areas in this country, I think that NYC is indeed unique. There's not so much intermingling anywhere else I can think of. Lost Angels is suburban sprawl. Same with Houston. Chicago is a hybrid between that and NYC. And the warmer climate in Atlanta, Miami, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and SoCal may be at least partially protective.

So I'm not convinced that everybody else in CONUS will 'get theirs' eventually. I think there's room for geographical regionalization (ala Italy) in how this virus gets spread around / dealt with and who gets it. I think there may be some lessons drawn from that at the end of the day too. We'll see.

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Italy's numbers just updated.

Mortality down a bit from yesterday, new cases up a bit, both numbers still below the peak numbers and seemingly consistent with the plateauing of the virus there.

Yes, it seems it's plateauing. I hoped until the end the plateau would have been a little bit lower in terms of deaths, but it looks like we're getting there.

650-700 deaths per-day is painful.



Hopefully, we're on the right track, though.

[Canoerebel]

I wonder how the outbreaks in other areas outside NYC will play out. You'd think it would be similar, but other countries have had regional hot spots. How important will population density, early onset of countermeasures, climate and other factors affect other areas? Or will it turn out that pretty much all will be affected, sort of like Angela Merkel's "70% of Germans" will get it (IIRC).

For instance, Florida has dense population clusters and an aging population but it's already hot and humid there. (Speaking of which, anybody seen HansBolter lately?)