GW Counterfactual Take 3.

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #7. The Eastern Front.

Siberian Fronts. End of Impulse.

07-AL-Eastern-Siberian-Fronts-EOI.png (1.35 MiB) Viewed 604 times

Southern Front. End of Impulse.

07-AL-Eastern-Southern-Fronts-EOI.png (1.89 MiB) Viewed 604 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Axis #8.

(1) Turn continues from Allied #7.
(2) German & Japan both take land actions.

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Axis #8. MTO & Balkans.

End of Impulse.
(1) Not much movement and no combat.
(2) Minor adjustments to Germany's FLOT in contact with the allies FLOT.

08-AX-Italy-Balkans-EOI.png (1.88 MiB) Viewed 598 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Axis #8. The Eastern Front.

Siberian Army Groups.
(1) The Siberian Army Groups continued their orderly "redeployment" west.

08-AX-Eastern-Siberian-Army-Groups-EOI.png (1.35 MiB) Viewed 597 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Axis #8. The Eastern Front.

Southern Army Groups.

Ukraine 58,58.

08-AX-Eastern-Ukraine-58-58-GSPT.png (317.88 KiB) Viewed 596 times

08-AX-Eastern-Ukraine-58-58-LC.png (262.34 KiB) Viewed 596 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Axis #8. The Eastern Front.

Southern Army Groups.

Caucasus Mtn 61,72.
(1) All Caucasus Mtn passes (hexes) finally cleared of Soviet units.
(2) Also, all of Georgia finally pacified.

08-AX-Eastern-Southern-CL.png (92.58 KiB) Viewed 593 times

08-AX-Eastern-Caucasian-Mtn-61-27.png (351.38 KiB) Viewed 595 times

08-AX-Eastern-Caucasus-Mtn-61-72.png (345.07 KiB) Viewed 595 times

08-AX-Caucasus-Mtn-61-72-LC.png (285.2 KiB) Viewed 595 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Axis #8. The Eastern Front.

Southern Army Groups.

End of Impulse.
(1) Possible opportunity to flank Soviets (west) and move into Iraq & Syria?
(2) Bit more study by OKH of this possibly needed.

08-AX-Eastern-Southern-Army-Groups-EOI.png (1.77 MiB) Viewed 589 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Axis #8. Asian Theater. China.

(1) I can say that I honestly surprised myself this impulse.
(2) As the CCP I didn't see the following coming from Japan.
(3) After all these years of playing (M)WIF, I'm starting to see what a powerful weapon emergency HQ supply can be!

Combat Logs.

08-AX-Asian-China-CL.png (42.95 KiB) Viewed 586 times

Land Movement + Emergency Supply.

08-AX-Asian-China-Umezu-Emergency-Supply.png (376.72 KiB) Viewed 584 times

Land Combat. Sian.

08-AX-Asian-Sian-China-LC.png (239.67 KiB) Viewed 586 times

End of Impulse.
(4) China & Japan are exhausted from 6 years of brutal war.
(5) China is down to 1 factory.
(6) After last (allied) impulse I though Japan was through in China.
(7) I'm not counting them out at this point.
(8) But things do look bleak for them; especially if they can't get units reorg and oiled.
(9) Won't happen this turn, but there's always next turn.
(10) Who knows maybe they'll (Japan) get lucky.

08-AX-Asian-China-EOI.png (1.72 MiB) Viewed 586 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #9. Weather.

(1) Turn continues from Axis #8 on D10(2) = 10.
(2) Fall storms hit worldwide.

08-AL-Weather-Some-Actions.png (31.73 KiB) Viewed 572 times

09-AL-Weather-Map.png (187.12 KiB) Viewed 572 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #9. Actions.

(1) Obviously USSR & China, land actions.
(2) USA land action too (no naval units in port to move and no naval searches needed).
(3) Free France ? Given the weather not really need to move any Free French unit except possibly 2 in Italy.
(4) Would like to move Free French Amph in Casablanca and pick up UK mot corps in Dakar.
(5) Also, some other Free French naval units in port but don't really need to move them.
(6) So, Free France will take a combine.
(7) CW? Need to get 3 more (replacement) CPs to the North Atlantic, need 1 replace CP in the East Med and a supply to South China Sea.
(8) These 3 naval moves would require a naval.
(9) However; CW needs 3 land moves to shore the allied FLOT in northeastern Italy by occupying and the empty hex between Venice & Trieste.
(10) So, a combine then which means only 2 of the 3 needed/desired RN naval moves can happen.
(11) In order of priority for these naval moves its: (a) 1 supply CP to South China Sea, (b) 3 more replacement CPs to North Atlantic, (c) 1 replacement CP to East Med.
(12) So, RN 2 naval moves will be 11(a) & 11(b).

Allied Actions.
Land - USA, USSR, China.
Combine - CW, Free France.
30% chance turn ends.

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #9. PTO.

South China Sea.
(1) RN NM 1/2. Supply CP. Karachi, India -> SCS[0].
(2) US LM. V Mar 1 hex NE, III Mar corps debarks SCS[3] to that hex.
(3) 2nd Mar div. Debarks SCS[4] to Telok Betong.
(4) USAAF fighter rebase x 2.

09-AL-PTO-South-China-Sea-EOI.png (1.99 MiB) Viewed 549 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #9. Asian Theater. China.

Combat Logs.

09-AL-Asian-China-CL.png (21.92 KiB) Viewed 548 times

End of Impulse.

09-AL-Asian-China-EOI.png (2.03 MiB) Viewed 548 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #9. The Eastern Front. End of Impulse.

Siberian Fronts.
(1) More movement west, but slower due to weather (storm) impacts on movement & supply.

09-AL-Eastern-Siberian-Fronts-EOI.png (1.49 MiB) Viewed 547 times

Southern Fronts.
(2) The Red Army may have something to say if Germany & Turkey attempt to flank them (west) to go after the Western Allies in the Middle East.
(3) Strong Soviet FLOT opposite Germany's FLOT in Aberjhani.

09-AL-Eastern-Southern-Fronts-EOI.png (2.14 MiB) Viewed 547 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #9. MTO & Balkans.

Naval

09-AL-MTO-CL.png (25.04 KiB) Viewed 540 times

09-AL-MTO-West-Med-NS-NC.png (234.25 KiB) Viewed 540 times

09-AL-MTO-East-Med-NS-NC.png (243.15 KiB) Viewed 540 times

End of Impulse.
(1) Care was made to ensure Italy's partisan chance remained at 0% and so it did after movement and rebase (Italy's Partisan # = -1).
(2) Also, trivial but irritating that it wasn't noticed until last allied impulse, the hex southwest of Rome was still German controlled.
(3) Free French V inf corps took care of that by moving into that hex, flipping control to Free France and moving back to Rome.

09-AL-Italy-Balkans-EOI.png (2.08 MiB) Viewed 544 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #9. Battle of the Atlantic (BOA).

Combat Logs.

09-AL-BOA-CL.png (100.97 KiB) Viewed 539 times

Cape St. Vincent (Intercept), Cape Verde Basin.

09-AL-BOA-CSV-Intercept-1.png (886.62 KiB) Viewed 539 times

North Atlantic.

09-AL-BOA-North-Atlantic-NC-1.png (239.34 KiB) Viewed 539 times

Cape St. Vincent.
(1) Note. Since no allied units move into AND stayed, or moved down, in the CSV, Germany couldn't search if they wanted to.

09-AL-BOA-CSV-NS-NC.png (273.01 KiB) Viewed 539 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #9. Battle of the Atlantic (BOA).

Central Atlantic.

09-AL-BOA-Central-Atlantic-NS-NC.png (232.33 KiB) Viewed 536 times

Faeroes Gap.

09-AL-BOA-Faeroes-Gap.png (200.34 KiB) Viewed 536 times

CW & USA Production After Full CP Replacements.
(1) Well, nearly full, didn't get a replacement CP to the East Med.
(2) And, the 2 CPs the US was planning to send to the Marshalls & West Cast had to be diverted to the Coral Sea to replace the 2 lost by IJN Sub Sq earlier in the turn.
(3) Which meant that the US couldn't get the Philippine RP back to a US factory and had to idle it.
(4) Still, a nice recovery for the Allied Joint Naval Command balanced against other Allied Command needs and priorities.
(5) I know action limits are an abstract mechanic but the more I play (M)WiF the more action limits give an historical feel in having to make priority decisions across worldwide fronts.
(6) Also, they make the impact of subs more significant than loss of CPs. Subs also impact combat operations on other fronts due to action priorities.

09-AL-BOA-CW-Production.png (242.82 KiB) Viewed 536 times

09-AL-BOA-USA-Production.png (231.45 KiB) Viewed 536 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #9.

(1) Turn ends on D10(3) = 3.
(2) 4 allied, 3 axis impulses.
(3) Initiative shifts -> +0 DRM (AX/AL), AX win tie and both may request a reroll.
(4) Turn included global impulse #s 178 - 184.
(5) That's an average after 25 turns of 7.4 impulses per turn.

99-Weather-Actions.png (41.42 KiB) Viewed 533 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. End of Turn. Partisans.

99-Partisans-2.png (22.54 KiB) Viewed 524 times

99-Partisans-1.png (56.55 KiB) Viewed 524 times

99-Asian-China-Partisan.png (2.09 MiB) Viewed 524 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. End of Turn. The Butcher's Bill.

KIA Report.

99-KIA-Report.png (32.26 KiB) Viewed 521 times

Destroyed.

99-Destroyed.png (122.99 KiB) Viewed 521 times

Dry Dock.

99-Dry-Dock.png (130.4 KiB) Viewed 521 times

Ships & Subs Damaged This Turn.

99-Damaged-This-Turn.png (61.8 KiB) Viewed 521 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. End of Turn. BOA Assessment.

(1)House Rule 7 and 26 underwent a completely rewrite on turn 19, Sep/Oct 1942 (7 turns ago).
(2) HR-7 was written to align with WiF CE (version 8) and redefining what equals to 1 naval move for subs.

HR 7. Sub Move. (G 15)
An active MP that takes a combine may move any number of their subs from any number of ports and/or sea boxes to any number of ports or sea boxes for 1 naval move.

(3) HR-26 isn't really a house rule, but is more of an "algorithm" to determine (Germany) action type.
(4) Whereas implementation of HR-7 requires deviation from MWIF rules as coded (i.e., game file editing), HR-26 does NOT.

HR 26. Battle of the Atlantic. (G 2141)

The following applies to Germany and Italy when active and prior to 1944.

Each MP prior to 1944 when active must build and/or repair a minimum of 3 or max possible subs per turn. Also, German & Italian subs get top priority for oiling during use oil prior to 1944.

Until Germany has taken a combine or naval action in a given turn, they must take one on the current axis impulse or successfully defer taking it. The choice to attempt to defer is voluntary and may be deferred if D10 >= U+S+A, U = # U-boat flotillas that threaten any sea area containing 6 or more CPs, S = # sea areas threaten containing 6 or more CPs and no escorting SCS in the 0-box and A = actual # of the current axis impulse of the given turn (i.e., 1,2,3,4, …). Threaten means a chance to find given weather and fight a sub or surface action against the 0-box. Escorting SCS means any SCS that could be included in a sub or surface combat.

(5) The following was the rationale behind HR-26,

[DELTED] [I decided to "beef" Germany's U-boat threat in the Atlantic. The following house rule will allow Germany to move their U-boats and participate with Italy against allied convoys in the Atlantic during the heavy fighting season on the Eastern Front when Germany needs land actions.
Germany if they do not pass may move all organize and in supply subs in port for free if Italy is active and takes either a naval or combine action. German units may NOT be used (i.e., flipped) to initiate a search if Germany took a land action.]
[19SO42]Completely rewritten. I feel this previous rule gave Germany too much power to continue hammer the USSR with land actions while also getting to move their U-boats out with Italian sub(s) searching for allied CPs. I'm looking for an approach that leads to a (more) historical Battle of the Atlantic and Eastern Front approach. So, I decided to rewrite this house rule completely to attempt to "historically" divert some German action and strength on the Eastern Front to the Battle of the Atlantic to achieve a more historical feel on both.
[20ND42]. Refined so as to more precisely achieve what I looking for which is to force German one impulse (at least) per turn to take a combine or naval action AND make U-boat attacks on allied Atlantic convoys. Also, I wanted to remove any incentive for Germany keeping their U-boats at sea at the end of turn in order to avoid having to take a combine or naval next turn, instead using Italy to search and still attack with their U-boats. They may still do that, but now they're required to take a combine or naval and attack.

(6) Since implementation (rewrite) of HR-26: (a) 17 CW, 3 Free French, 3 US for a total of 23 Western Allied CPs sunk, (b) 19 CW, 0 US, 1 Free French for a total of 20 Western Allied CPs aborted.
(7) Percentage wise vs total, (a) 27% CW & 31.1% Western Allied of all CPs sunk so far this game, (b) 43% CW & 41.7% Western Allied of all aborted this game.
(8) This over 7 turns of the 25 completed thus far, or 28% of the game turns so far.
(9) So HR-26 has resulted in a higher percentage of Western Allied aborts (43% of aborts vs 28% of game play) and slightly higher sunk (31.1% sunk vs 28% of game played).
(10) However; HR-26 if implemented earlier in the game may have had a bigger impact as US & CW CPs didn't gain inherent ASW until 1942.

99-BOA-Since-HR-26-and-HR-7.png (10.98 KiB) Viewed 510 times

Game vs Historical BOA Comparison.
(11) You can clearly see in the plots below that whatever, or however, I was doing fell well short of historical in 1941 & 1942.
(12) That is by comparing game sunk to BOA historical tonnage lost. I'm not sure how to factor in aborts so well I present them I'm ignoring them for tonnage lost.
(13) In 1941, game tonnage lost was 2.4 GMT vs historical 3.9 GMT (gross million tons).
(14) Or in CP numbers (200,000 tons per CP) 12 CPs in game sunk vs 19.5 equivalent CPs historically.
(15) That's a difference of -7.5 CPs.
(16) In 1942 the game vs historical difference widen to -3.5 GMT or -17.5 CPs.
(17) That a game vs historical difference of -25 CPs in 1941 & 1942 combined.
(18) Now look at 1943, which still has a turn (2 months) left.
(19) The game vs historical difference is +5 CPs (or +1 GMT) difference and this is a time when CW & US CPs have inherent ASW.
(20) Looking a the cumulative (2nd) plot below, at the end of 1942 the game was -5.4 GMT (or -27 CPs) behind historical.
(21) Now in 1943, again with 1 full turn still to play, that difference has shrunk to -4.3 GMT (or -21.5 CPs) behind historical.
(22) It would be interesting to see how well a game played for the beginning with HR-7 and HR-26 would match historical BOA losses.

99-BOA-by-Turn.png (23.75 KiB) Viewed 510 times

99-BOA-Cumulative.png (22.38 KiB) Viewed 510 times

Game vs Historical Sub Warfare Mechanics.
(23) I do understand that the (M)WiF sub warfare mechanics are abstracted from actual (historical WW2).
(24) First, the sub hunters were the planes, destroyers, destroyer escorts, frigates and other smaller ships not explicitly represented in the game. Well except for planes of course.
(25) The cruisers and even battleships w/o CLIFs, which are sub hunters in (M)WiF were not hunters but prey historical.
(26) Also, in (M)WiF is quite common for Germany to get their U-boats out using a combine one impulse and let Italian subs do the searching in following impulses.
(27) This requires Italy to take combines in such impulses but allows Germany to take land actions.
(28) Historically, because of the way currents flowed through the Gibraltar straights, U-boat could and did enter the Med; but once there they were there for the duration.
(29) In (M)WiF Italian subs easily move out from the Med into the Atlantic to search for German U-boats as discussed in 27.
(30) Finally, convoy losses were more attritional versus the big hit or miss battles we usually see play out in (M)WiF.
(31) Though in the end at our level of abstraction all we really want, well what I really want, is that the result plays out historical GIVEN historical commitment by both sides to the BOA.
(32) That's what I'm trying to accomplish with HR-7 and HR-26, which to be properly evaluated needs to be implemented at the start of game.

Please feel free to let me know what you think about all this.

And please, as always, pardon any misspelling or grammical errors.