Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

9/16/42
 
NoPac:  The Allies win a modest air battle over Para and Onne.  No sign of imminent invasion.
 
CenPac:  No enemy carriers or combat ships sighted.
 
SoPac:  The Japanese have less than 100 AV at PP.
 
SWPac:  Enemy patrols suddenly lit up Milne Bay.  The Allies are withdrawing several empty AP and AK, but several more will remain to unload a tank destroyer unit and the Aussie E/F CD unit.  I'm hoping for one day before enemy combat ships arrive from Tulagi/Lunga.  The Allies have 235 AV ashore and both port and airfield are 51% to level one.
 
DEI:  The Allies come out on top in modest air battles over Padang, though enemy bombers damage the airfield badly.  No sign of the enemy flooding the Sibolga area with ground troops in preparation for a land campaign vs. Padang, but I'm monitoring that vector.  Things look good.
 
Burma:  The Happy Stalemate continues at Magwe, even while we await the first enemy deliberate attack.

[Canoerebel]

9/17/42

NoPac: Still quiet.

CenPac: Still quiet.

SoPac: Pago Pago is clear of enemy troops. The "Little Vietnam" campaign lasted five months, much to the benefit of the Allies.

SWPac: All but one transport finished unloading - the last, an AK, has one more shore gun to unload (for G/H Battery, not E/F as I previously said).

DEI: THe Allies win another fighter battle over Padang. Transports carrying E/F Battery arrive at Cocos Island. From here they make the hazardous run to Billiiton Island. The Japanese have fed a few very weak units forward from Sibolga to Padang, but they are so small they can't even nudge aside a small Aus recce unit. An Aussie infantry brigade is moving forward to bump the enemy units back towards Sibolga.

Burma: The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues.

[Grotius]

Looks like you're doing very well, Canoe. I'm curious -- have you always played one-day turns? I had a dim recollection you played two-day turns. I looked at the beginning of the AAR, but I couldn't find any discussion of the turn cycle.

As I mentioned in another thread, I'm still around, lurking. Mostly busy testing Matrix's WIF and playing Distant Worlds, but I never tire of reading AE AARs.

[Canoerebel]

Grotius, san!  I pause to bow politely.  Always so good to see you around.
 
This is a one-day turn game, as was my previous match with Q-Ball.  Two games back, against Miller, we played two-day turns.  I loved that, because the game flew, partly because we were cranking out one to five turns every day.  I love that, but I love the discipline and moderation imposed by a one-day turn cycle.  I'm playing a much tighter game now than I did for the two-day game.

[Grotius]

Yep, I hear ya, I like one-day turns too. More granular.

[Canoerebel]

9/18/42 and 9/19/42
 
NoPac:  Minor enemy bombing raids vs. Onnekotan.  I'm 95% certain a massive enemy invasion will take place before winter sets in, but on the off chance that Steve delays, I'll keep Wasp and several BBs in theater.  If the Allies have a chance to hold Para into winter, I'll fight for it.  The only chance is if Steve's own fears have gotten the best of him - if he thinks Para is so strongly defended that he can't chance it.
 
CenPac:  Enemy bombers now targeting Ndeni.  Quiet around Tarawa.
 
SoPac:  The Allies finished off the ragged remnants at Pago Pago.  The campaign has ended.  Now it will just be bombing practice for the IJ strike aircraft based at nearby Savaii.  I won't contest this unless I see a chance to accomplish something.
 
SWPac:  The big TFs have retired from Milne, with most of the "oomph" unloaded.  To my surprise, the enemy hasn't visited this base yet.  I'll be sending in small, scattered TFs carrying some elements of the units already ashore.  Forts are already at two.  The Japanese have taken Woodlark and Munda, so both sides are building towards the battle that will eventually take place in the northern reaches of the Coral Sea.
 
DEI:  No meaningful enemy activity down here.  All Japanese attention is currently focused on Padang, where Japan doesn't have a prayer of accomplishing anything unless and until major reinforcements arrive, which will take weeks or months over bad roads.  Meanwhile, the Allies continue unloading troops at Oosthaven, which now has 2300 AV and a host of engineering and base force units.  Both Para and Onne fort levels are at 8.70.  As soon as they reach 9, the engineers will begin to disperse - some going to nearby bases to help there (Benkolen, Lahat, and perhaps Padang); others will go to Billiton and Toboala it ramp up base building at those important places.  I can foresee a time when it is no longer necessary to keep the Allied carriers stationed south of Sumatra.  We're getting late into 1942 while Nero fiddles.
 
Burma:  The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues.  The Allies are working on flanking maneuvers from both southeast and southwest, so we'll see if we can isolate the Japanese army.

[pws1225]

Burma: The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues. The Allies are working on flanking maneuvers from both southeast and southwest, so we'll see if we can isolate the Japanese army.

Okay, just gotta ask: why a "Happy" stalemate?

[paullus99]

Because CR doesn't have the troops to go on an offensive here yet & every day he can hold his position, it means when he will be in a much better position to retake Burma when the time is right.

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, what paullus said.  The Allies are outnumbered in upper Burma.  At Magwe, 1250 Japanese AV face 750 Allied AV.  The Allies cling to the hope of staying there (the Happy Stalemate) by remaining on the defensive in the hex while using several small units to threaten the enemy rear and flank, along with employing superior air power to weaken the enemy.

[Canoerebel]

9/20/42
 
DEI:  Oosthaven port is suddenly alive with enemy subs, which I think are on minelaying duty.  CA Pensacola takes two TTs, an xAP hits a mine, and Allied ships sink one enemy sub and damage another.  Elsewhere, the little transport TF carrying G/H CD unit to Billiton Island loses one xAK to a sub.  Billiton is looking pretty good with 287 AV behind two forts.  The airfield should reach level two in a week or two.  BB Ramilles, damaged in surface combat back in April, just prior to the Battle of the Andaman Sea, is on the way back to theater from Capetown, in company with CA Hawkins.  The Allies just landed II Fighter HQ, which will report to duty at Prabaemolith, a town midway between Oosthaven and Palembang (thus providing service for both key airports plus Benkolen to boot).
 
Burma:  The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues.
 
NoPac:  Quiet, though one enemy DD hits a mine at Para.
 
CenPac:  Nothing major going on here.  Sallys in moderate numbers target Ndeni, but don't accomplish anything.
 
SoPac:  No enemy air strikes against Pago Pago.
 
SWPac:  More troops ashore at Milne Bay, boosting the AV to 270 behind two forts.  Port and airfield should reach level one in less than a week.

[GreyJoy]

You know what i need? I need a map...or some screenshots (of what? doesn't really matter)...some candies for the eyes so to say[:)]

[Canoerebel]

9/21/42
 
GJ:  For you, I can do it.  I'll post some maps this afternoon.  It's the autumn equinox in the game, anyway, so the winds of change are beginning to blow....
 
DEI:  The small transport TF carrying G/H Shoregun unit to Billiton encounters two hostile subs, but takes no damage (one set of torps malfunction, the other sub missed - that's a lucky Allied TF!).  A good part of G/H is ashore at Billiton.  The Allies are just about to ramp up the transfer of units - especially engineers and base forces - to Toboali and Billiton in to set the table for some offensive operations planned as the year draws to a close.  The fight continues in and around Padang, but this won't be a concern until Japan can bring alot more to the table.  Over in India, additional units are gathering at the "traditional port of embarkation for units bound to the DEI."  This includes newly arrived 25th Indian Division.  Some units are prepping for Sibolga (Sumatra) and others for Singkawang (Borneo).
 
Burma:  The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues.
 
NoPac:  Nothing major from the enemy, yet.  I still expect a major counter-invasion before the end of October.  Just in case it doesn't happen, though, the Allies will be ready to drop more supply and engineering units at both bases to take advantage of the wintertime lull in activity.
 
CenPac:  Quiet.
 
SoPac:  Quiet.
 
SWPac:  Having unloaded, the second Milne Bay convoy will retire to Townsville.  Now the third and last - and smallest - will proceed to Milne.  No sign yet that the enemy is "aroused" by this activity.
 
Political Points:  The only thing preventing the Allies from going on the offensive in the DEI immediately is political points.  Big units are stacking up at Cochin, India, awaiting PP.  Right now, the Allies have 1,000.  I need 4,200 to buy the three divisions and one armored unit at (or bound for) Cochin.  Two divisions are prepping for Singkawang; the other, along with a motorized brigade, is prepping for Sibolga.  There's another motorized brigade, also prepping for Sibolga, inbound from Adento Colombo.  The Allies are aware that Japan may martial its forces and go on the offensive in the DEI, but if it does not, the Allies will be in a position to move forward in a big way in roughly four to eight weeks. 

[Canoerebel]

eastern Sumatra and vicinty, September 21, 1942

[Cribtop]

You will gradually isolate his Sumatra army and Singapore, then eventually bomb the oil in his possession into the pre-Cambrian Era. Yikes.

[Canoerebel]

I think we have a house rule preventing strat bombing in SEAC/DEI until 1944, so that won't be possible for fifteen months.  If Chez doesn't attend to things down here, however, Allied LBA will shut down Japanese shipping in the western DEI in early 1943.  Of course, Chez can't allow that to happen, so he'll do something....I think.  Won't he?

[Canoerebel]

Here's a puzzler.  During the past three months, Chez hasn't engaged in any combined arms (land, sea and air) operations anywhere.  The largest undertaking was landing two very small units on Ndeni.  Both of them were eliminated in short order.  Other than that there's been absolutely nothing - no counterinvasions in the Kuriles, around Tarawa, near Pago Pago, in New Guinea, or in the DEI.  Nothing.  I guess his last major effort was at Pago Pago back around May or June.
 
The KB has vanished from sight in recent weeks, with IJN carriers most recently seen operating around Lunga and between Wake and Marcus.
 
This suggests Chez is marshalling his forces for a big move.  My best guess is and has been NoPac, though the DEI would make more sense.  But three months without any Japanese offensive activity* is a heck of a long time in 1942.  He's got to break an offensive shortly.  He's just got to. 
 
*Except relatively minor land campaigns at Magwe and near Padang.
 
 

[Cribtop]

I'm not so sure. He NEEDS to, but the discussion in Shattered Sword about capabilities and intentions works both ways. The IJN at Midway fell prey to planning based on perceived USN intentions instead of capabilities. Here, Chez may have capability (declining every day but he still has it) of going on an offensive, but my read is that he has no intention of doing so because of low player morale.

I hope I'm wrong as a make or break offensive would be more fun to watch.

[obvert]

I find it hard to believe there are so many dutch bases still unconquered on Borneo. Sambas is a pretty short walk for an SNLF from Singkawang. It sure looks like the door is open to keep pushing farther here.

Even without strategic bombing, all you really have to do is close the fuel ports with 4Es and the economy will crash down pretty quickly. Without Palembang that really means just Miri and Balikpapan/Samarinda.

He might not be acting offensively in order to conseve fuel at this point.

[Nemo121]

He's got to break an offensive shortly. He's just got to.

Why? He may actually have just done precisely what I and others suggested he needed to do about 6 months ago and you, by not pushing the offensive opportunities granted you by your position, have gifted him the time he needed to transition strategically and operationally onto a defensive footing with a strong MLR some distance from the current front line.

Whether he's done that or not is a different matter but, certainly, by not pushing the enemy hard you've given him ample opportunity to garrison and echelon in depth. I doubt he'll have taken full advantage of this huge pause to create a cohesive defence but the belief that he must attack simply isn't warranted. His best play is to garrison, echelon and use the time you're giving him to coalesce.

[Canoerebel]

He doesn't have the luxury of going on the defensive when the Allies are right in the midst of his oil and resources.  I mean, if he wants to fight a defensive war from mid 1943 onward without being able to extract those things, he can try, but that will be an odd, wimpering way for the war to wind down.

The Allies have achieved the position needed to win the war early.  It's now up to Japan to dislodge the Allies, though I don't think Japan can do so.  My strategic objective is to force Japan to attack and to break its back when it does so.  Should Japan not bite, the game ends soon anyway.  Japan can't win if the Allies have big airfields in eastern Sumatra and southern Borneo in early 1943.