GW Counterfactual Take 3.

[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Axis #1.

Weather & Actions.
(1) Impulse #185.
(2) German must take this turn's combine or naval this impulse.
(3) Well, they do have an O-chit and could take a super-combine which would give them full land moves across all fronts.
(4) However; OKH in no uncertain terms does NOT authorize use of an O-chit for a super-combine this impulse given rain in the Arctic & North Temperate.
(5) They want to save that O-chit to double land combat factors; for example, counterattack on the Soviet Vologda Front, counterattack on the Western Allies in Italy or for HQ reorg after (previously used impulse prior) for massive unit reorg after offensive.
(6) OKH makes it clear that Germany's O-chit (they also have another one in production), is for combat either doubling or reorg of HQs.
(7) Both Germany & Japan take combine actions.
(8) Donitz is optimistic about his U-boats finding and sinking allied unescorted convoys in the Atlantic.
(9) Rumor has it that OKH may deprioritize the use of combine actions for OKL in such regards starting next year (i.e., after this turn).
(10) So Donitz wants to make the most out of this turn's combine in order to show OKH the value his U-boats bring to Germany's war effort to keep actions prioritized for them.

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[Orm]

(28) Historically, because of the way currents flowed through the Gibraltar straights, U-boat could and did enter the Med; but once there they were there for the duration.
(29) In (M)WiF Italian subs easily move out from the Med into the Atlantic to search for German U-boats as discussed in 27.

It seems to me that it is a myth that U-boats could not leave the Mediterranean. Italians did so. One German U-boat did as well. Since passing Gibraltar was hazardous I suspect that Germany was reluctant to order U-boats back out from the Med once they entered. Why order the U-boat out, to just send in another?

Italy operated a large number of Submarines in the Atlantic from their base in France. Most (all?) left the Mediterranean after the war was declared.

In 1940, all twenty-eight Italian submarines which were to be based at BETASOM initially had to sail from bases on the Mediterranean Sea and transit the Straits of Gibraltar to reach the Atlantic Ocean. All twenty-eight did this successfully without incident
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BETASOM

[Centuur]

(28) Historically, because of the way currents flowed through the Gibraltar straights, U-boat could and did enter the Med; but once there they were there for the duration.
(29) In (M)WiF Italian subs easily move out from the Med into the Atlantic to search for German U-boats as discussed in 27.

It seems to me that it is a myth that U-boats could not leave the Mediterranean. Italians did so. One German U-boat did as well. Since passing Gibraltar was hazardous I suspect that Germany was reluctant to order U-boats back out from the Med once they entered. Why order the U-boat out, to just send in another?

Italy operated a large number of Submarines in the Atlantic from their base in France. Most (all?) left the Mediterranean after the war was declared.

In 1940, all twenty-eight Italian submarines which were to be based at BETASOM initially had to sail from bases on the Mediterranean Sea and transit the Straits of Gibraltar to reach the Atlantic Ocean. All twenty-eight did this successfully without incident
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BETASOM

Germany was close enough to be able to maintain and repair U boats in Italian ports. That's the only reason why German SUB's never left the Med again. So MWIF is right to allow SUB's to leave the Med for the Atlantic.

[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Axis #1. Battle of the Atlantic.

Naval Moves.
(1) 2 U-boat flotillas/Sub Gps each to five different sea areas with unescorted CPs (except West Med).
(a) North Atlantic
(b) Faeroes Gap
(c) Cape St. Vincent
(d) Bay of Biscay
(e) West Med.
(2) Donitz's hoping that his U-boats find with good search splits in at least 2 of these 5 sea areas.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Axis #1. Battle of the Atlantic.

North Atlantic.

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[Sub Round 2] Germany commits subs. Search(G/Y=AX/AL): GER=6, RN/USN=8 -> no find. So the allies get out of this battle with 1 abort & 0 sunk.

[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Axis #1. Battle of the Atlantic.

Faeroes Gap.

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Cape St. Vincent.

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Bay of Biscay.

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West Med.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Axis #1. PTO.

China Sea. USN Intercept.

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Arabian Sea.

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South China Sea. Non-Phasing.
(1) USN fails to knocked loaded TRS out of the South China Sea, which means the IJN will be able to reinforce Japan's only remaining oil RP at Palembang, NEI.
(2) Now they need to keep their supply CPs alive and working in the China Sea in order of the oil to flow and be able to oil a growing number of "out of gas" units!

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Axis #1. PTO.

China Sea (Non-Phasing).
[rain, non-phasing] USN Sub Gp that already flipped (to attempt intercept) will search for 2 unescorted IJN CPs. USN reacts PBY-1 -> [3] and commits subs. Search(B/R=AL/AX): USN=4, IJN=3 -> USN[3] finds (in the rain) because of the PBY-1 and elects to fight a sub action with 3 SPs.
(1) 2 of 3 IJN CP reinforcements sunk, leaving only 1 CP in Kobe, Japan.
(2) That's all they have left to get oil and supply flowing and no organized naval or air units on map!

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[rkr1958]

(28) Historically, because of the way currents flowed through the Gibraltar straights, U-boat could and did enter the Med; but once there they were there for the duration.
(29) In (M)WiF Italian subs easily move out from the Med into the Atlantic to search for German U-boats as discussed in 27.

It seems to me that it is a myth that U-boats could not leave the Mediterranean. Italians did so. One German U-boat did as well. Since passing Gibraltar was hazardous I suspect that Germany was reluctant to order U-boats back out from the Med once they entered. Why order the U-boat out, to just send in another?

Italy operated a large number of Submarines in the Atlantic from their base in France. Most (all?) left the Mediterranean after the war was declared.

In 1940, all twenty-eight Italian submarines which were to be based at BETASOM initially had to sail from bases on the Mediterranean Sea and transit the Straits of Gibraltar to reach the Atlantic Ocean. All twenty-eight did this successfully without incident
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BETASOM

Germany was close enough to be able to maintain and repair U boats in Italian ports. That's the only reason why German SUB's never left the Med again. So MWIF is right to allow SUB's to leave the Med for the Atlantic.

Thanks guys! I love these types of historical discussions. I based my statements (28 & 29) above on the paragraph below taken from page 50 of "The Convoy" written by Augus Konstam. I highly recommend this book which, in my opinion, was very well researched from both the RN and KM side. I read it on vacation last month and couldn't put it down. The main character is RN LTCMD "Johnnie" Walker, whom I never heard until I read this book, well except as a brand of scotch.

Convoy HG-76 also included the escort carrier Audacity, which I believe was a captured ocean liner with a flight deck on top. It's air component was only 4 fighters, which had to be parked on deck as the carrier had no elevator and no hanger below deck. On the plus side for the aircrews, their cabins were luxurious as this was a converted passenger liner.

Anyway, a wonderful read and one that I highly recommend. Also, I love these historical discussions and please keeping this and any other going. Thanks!

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. PTO. South China Sea. CORRECTION & Debark.

(1) One advantage to solo play and possessing rudimentary MWIF game file editing skills is that I can correct a boneheaded "tactical" error like the one I just made for Japan.
(2) Japan's intention was to reinforce their last held oil field at Palembang (2 Oil RP & 2 saved oil).
(3) Their one TRS Gp w/the elite (WP) 14th inf army evaded interception moving from Osaka through the China Sea (barley by 1!) and avoided detection by the USN subs and nav air in the South China Sea.
(5) GREAT! Now the inf army can disembark and reinforce Palembang. Right? WRONG!
(6) Palembang isn't a port so the inf army to debark there would have to debark from an Amph or on top of an HQ, neither of which are present.
(7) What to do? Do I let Japan suffer for "my" tactical error given their intent to reinforce Palembang?
(8) I decide no so I made the edits to put the 14th inf army back in Osaka and move the SNLF mar corps from Osaka to being transported by the IJN TRS Gp in the South China Sea.
(9) While I don't know how to make these edits directly, I do have an edit hack (or workaround) that I believe anyone with rudimentary game file editing skills may use.
(10) I went back to naval movement (autosave) and saved that file to a temporary game file.
(11) I then loaded the SNLF mar (instead of the 14th inf army) and move the TRS w/SNLF mar to the South China Sea.
(12) NOTE: No need to intercept, attempt intercept or naval battle.
(13) Just made that one naval move, end naval move phase for all MPs and saved.
(14) I then found the unit records for the 3 affected units (i.e., TRS, SNLF mar, 14th inf army) in the temp game file.
(15) I copied those all records (6-7 lines) for each unit and copied over the corresponding unit records in my "official" game file.
(16) BAM, correction made and now Japan is able to disemark the SNLF marine corps and reinforce Palembang.
(17) The issue, Palembang is swamp which flips SNLF marine corps which is also out of supply after debark.
(18) But hey, that is/was Japan's only real option for reinforcing Palembang.
(19) Historical too, not at Palembang but historically in the Solomons at Guadalcanal.
(20) Solo play also lets me make this correction without guilt.
(21) By the way, these types of tactical errors are the only ones I'll correct.
(22) When I make the decision to roll the dice, no matter combat or action, I know the risks (and benefits) and I accept fully the outcome.
(23) This makes those desperate rolls that work out meaningful and those high odd rolls that don't so devastating.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Eastern Front. End of Impulse.

Mannerheim's Finnish Army.
(1) Mannerheim's Finnish army after the successfully capture of Murmansk 2 turns ago is trying their best to get back into the war.
(2) However; supply is the issue and may take several turns for Mannerheim to accomplish this objective.

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Northern Army Groups.
(1) Allocated Germany's (combine action) 1/1 rail, 6/6 land moves, 3/6 air (for rebase) moves.
(2) von Leeb railed from Vienne to NE1-Kaalinin.
(3) Turkish inf moves to swamp and reestablish supply to the elite (WP) IX corps.
(4) SS corps will be back in supply in snow or fine (50% chance next impulse pair for arctic).
(5) Supply lines for Manstein's and Guderian's redeploying (i.e., retreating) Army Groups is hanging by a thread by the vital rail junction north of Penza and the rail line running through Penza.
(6) This junction and rail line must, and will be, held at all cost until the retreating army groups can get pass the Red Army's influence out of Gorki.

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Southern Army Groups.
(7) No movement (land or air) as no priority of actions given for the Southern Army Groups.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Italy & Balkans. End of Impulse.
(1) 2 air rebases, no land moves.

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[Centuur]

Cheating, Ronnie, cheating... There was the admiral who changed the orders from above and decided not to use an AMPH. Or the general who decided not to use the MAR but to send another unit instead, since he wanted to use the MAR in another theater. You should have stayed with the error you made initially...

But this of course shows the strength of MWIF that you can make these kind of errors, even when playing solitair...

[rkr1958]

Cheating, Ronnie, cheating... There was the admiral who changed the orders from above and decided not to use an AMPH. Or the general who decided not to use the MAR but to send another unit instead, since he wanted to use the MAR in another theater. You should have stayed with the error you made initially...

But this of course shows the strength of MWIF that you can make these kind of errors, even when playing solitair...

Most certainty! In fact, after studying the game situation for a couple of hours I see a possibility in Southern France which the Western Allies may attempt to exploit. The may, depends on whether or not they can successfully ground strike (flip) a Vichy arty div. But I'm getting ahead of myself.

[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Allied #3.

SHAEF
(1) MTO, ETO & Balkan Joint Commands, while technically still separate, were put under a new command HQ, SHAEF.
(2) The Combine Chiefs of Staff will now communicate with SHAEF which will then communicate and coordinate the MTO, ETO & Balkan commands, who no longer communicate with the Combine Chiefs.
(3) One of SHAEF's first action was getting war directive, USA-WAR-5321, "Establish Bridgehead in Southern (Vichy) France" re-opened!
(4) Talk about creating some fireworks among other command; specifically Naval command.

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New & Reponed War Directives.

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SHAEF. Operation DRAGOON.
(5) NOTE that a successful ground strike on the Vichy arty div is a necessary prerequisite for allied landing to commence at green (Marseilles) and orange (NW1-Marseilles) beaches.
(6) However; action types and naval moves will already have been made if the landings are scrubbed which is the risk accepted by Combined Chiefs in agreeing to the operation.

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Allied Actions.
(7) NOTE: US action was super-combine with or without Operation DRAGOON due to the urging of PTO command who ensures with certainty the capture of Palembang, NEI (2 Oil RP & 2 saved Oil).
(8) However; without DRAGOON Naval Command would have gotten naval actions for both CW & Free France which they would have used to adjust their convoy lines to accommodate allied trade agreements and get all but 1 idle non-oil RP to factory.
(9) But again, Naval Command is frustrated by priority of an other command, in this case SHAEF which controls MTO, ETO and Balkan Joint Commands.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Allied #3. BOA & MTO Naval Moves.

Intercept or Not?

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West Med. Operation Dragoon Task Forces.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Allied #3. PTO Naval Moves.

South China Sea.
(1) USN reinforcement, bombardment & air strike Task Forces.

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China Sea & Sea of Japan.
(2) CV with 4+ range CAG in each of China Sea[4] & Sea of Japan[4] to maximize search against the lone remaining IJN CP still in port.
(3) Top priority to keep IJN supply broken to China (via China Sea or Sea of Japan) and not being able to oil (via IJN TRS Gp in South China Sea)

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Allied #3. BOA. Naval Combat.

North Atlantic.

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Cape St. Vincent.

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Bay of Biscay.

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Faeroes Gap.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Allied #3. PTO. Naval Combat.

South China Sea.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Allied #3. MTO. Naval Combat.

West Med.

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