Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Canoerebel]

2/5/42 to 2/8/42
 
Singapore:  The Allied garrison was able to survive another attack, this on the 7th.  The next Japaanese assault should take the city.  Nevertheless, the garrison held a good ten days or two weeks longer than I had expected back in mid January.  This gave the Allies much-needed time to get the Burma Army on their way to India.
 
Bay of Bengal:  A solo Japanese DD visited Port Blair and missed an xAKL, but I-166 picked her off.  The Allied troops at Sabang finished off the SNLF that Brad landed there a few days ago.
 
Oz:  The same Mini KB sighted on the 4th made an appearance west of Geraldton on the 7th.  This is quite a bit further north than last time, which removes the threat posed to the sea lanes between India and Australia.  Perhaps ten TFs in total are on the way to Oz - five of them from India (carrying an Aussie division) and about five or six from America.  The latter include transports carrying a RCT and a tank regiment, currently approaching New Zealand's south island.  Queen Elizabeth is hoofing it with most of another RCT.  She's currently east of Hawaii.  In about three weeks, if all these ships arrive safely, the Allied presence in Australia will be significantly stronger.
 
New Caledonia and SoPac:  Japan's 90th Regiment took Noumea on the 5th.  If Brad is inclined to continue forward in this region, his next target should be Suva or possibly even Auckland.  He won't bump into any major Allied defenses in this area unless he goes for Pago Pago, which has a garrison of 300+ AV.
 
Batavia:  Japan's 21st Division and other troops took a crack at Batavia, but didn't touch the three forts.  Brad will probably have to reinforce this assault.
 
Sub Wars:  Grayling got an xAKL near Wakkanai on the 6th.  Thus far, knock on wood, Allied subs have been about as effective as Japanese subs.  I haven't encountered near the carnage that I experienced in my game with Miller.  His subs were lethal in the extreme and just ate me alive on the West Coast and around Hawaii and Oz.

[Canoerebel]

2/9/42 and 2/10/42
 
Singapore:  The garrison held by the skin of its teeth during an attack on the 10th.  One more good nudge and it should fall.  It would have fallen had Brad shock attacked either of the past two attacks.
 
Once Singers Falls:  I expect Brad to move on Port Blair and the two islands (Cacos and Christmas) south of Java.  If he's going to move on Ceylon or NE India, I think he will do so quickly.
 
India and Oz Defenses:  I haven't seen any further major activity around Oz.  Since two US Army RCTs, a tank battalion, and an Aussie division are just a few weeks away, and since my suspicions are still telling me to watch out for India, I have decided to send the second Aussie division to India.  The first infantry and cav brigades just arrived at Aden.  They will change to strategic movement and make for Karachi.  From there these two units go to Calcutta.  The first USN CV arrived at Capetown yesterday and three more are less than a week away.  Once they arrive and fill out their air squadrons, I'll probably send them north to the south edge of the map, where they'll maintain position on the possibility that Brad might try something against Port Blair or Ceylon in coming weeks.
 
Pacific:  The Japanese just took Baker Island; this is the first hostile activitiy in CenPac since Pearl Harbor.  Reinforcements are on the way to Palmyra (Raiders), Christmas (Raiders) and Canton (army detachment), but if things get hot I may divert the transports.
 
Java:  Haruna and Kongo paid a visit to Batavia, but the following Japanese ground assault came off at 1:3, didn't touch three forts, and resulted in equal casualties.
 
Subwars:  I-168 tangled with a picket xAKL northeast of Rockhampton, but missed.  Thresher nailed a small TK near Shikuka. 
 
Situation:  It has been several weeks since the Japanese last did something big and bold.  I'm enjoying the quiet, but I know Brad is organizing his next moves and that unpleasant things will be happening.  I still don't know where his next main vector of attack will be, but it sure is fun trying to figure things out and prepare as best I can.

[BBfanboy]

I'll probably send them north to the south edge of the map ... [&:]

Is there some kind of space warp in the N-S direction too?
Or perhaps I just don't know enough about the game to understand what this means??

Trying to picture all your moves as I read the AAR and this one has me stumped.

[Canoerebel]

It's simple.  My carriers are currently 75 miles west of Nome.  They are sailing north, skirting the Pole, then sailing down the Volga to the Black Sea, then west through the Dardenelles, thence south through the Suez, thence southeast to the south edge of the map near Capetown.

Or...not.

Actually, my carriers are currently stationed at Capetown.  That means they have to sail north to reach the south edge of the map. 

I think...

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's simple.  My carriers are currently 75 miles west of Nome.  They are sailing north, skirting the Pole, then sailing down the Volga to the Black Sea, then west through the Dardenelles, thence south through the Suez, thence southeast to the south edge of the map near Capetown.

Or...not.

Actually, my carriers are currently stationed at Capetown.  That means they have to sail north to reach the south edge of the map. 

I think...

LOL - I'm glad you dropped the first routing - Stalin's hospitality is somewhat suspect and EVERYONE was a spy out to get him. I think Russians volunteered for the front just so they wouldn't see [or be seen by] him on the street.

Please scan the postcards from your CV's trip around the world when you get a chance!

[Canoerebel]

2/11/42 and 2/12/42
 
Malaya and India:  Singapore falls on the 12th.  If Brad is planning a move on India, this opens the door.  I expect immediate moves on Port Blair and Sabang, even if he has no plans to hit India.  If he's really coming all the way, then Addu Atoll and Diego Garcia may be on the menu.  An Aussie division has arrived at Aden.  I've set prep to Calcutta and the first brigade begins boarding transports tomorrow.  Calcutta currently has 200+ AV; Chittagong 500+; Madras 200+; Colombo 600+; Trincomalee 150+.  The Burma army is in the jungle trying to make the line of bases (Akyab, Kohima, Ledo, etc.) as quickly as possible, but nearly all units are several weeks away. SigInt that 54th Division is prepping for Calcutta.

Australia:  Reinforcements are well on the way from both east (two US Army RCTs and a tank battalion) and west (Aussie Army division).  The former is in a line of TFs the first of which is rounding New Zealand's south cape; the latter are nearing the southwestern cape of Oz, though they are far to the south near map's edge.  I have picket ships posted to the north and thus far everything looks quiet for the final run into Adelaide and Melbourne.  Most of these troops will be ashore in two weeks. SigInt that 6th RF Guns is prepping for Brisbane.

Hawaii:  An Army RCT justed landed at Hilo and a second at Kona.  The Big Island is no longer an easy pick up.

Alaska:  The Allies just spent 300 political points to buy an army RCT (mountain regiment) prepping for Adak Island.  This unit is boarding transports at Seattle. It probably won't make it before the end of winter conditions, which is a concern. If Brad has eyes on the Aleutians, he could arrive as early as March 1.

Philippines:  The Japanese haven't tried anything more than bombardment for many weeks now.  Brad's neglected Clark Field to the point that the Allies have rebuilt two forts.  I think it's going to take awhile for the Japanese to reduce Clark and Bataan.

Sub Wars:  Thresher got a TK near Wakkanai on the 11th; Shark got another near Ominato on the 12th. That's three in less than a week. I-7 picked of a picket xAKL northeast of Rockhampton on the 11th.

Paranoia: Brad hasn't posted in his AAR in several days. This is the kind of thing that adds to the impression that something big is up. Regardless of that, though, we've reached the point where he ought to be embarking on his next major offensive.

[Canoerebel]

2/13/42 and 2/14/42
 
Brad wrote, "Now we can begin phase two" when he sent the email for the turn of the 13th.  This was in reference to the fall of Singapore, I suppose.  I wrote back, "How did you know that I was embarking on a phase two?"  Then, with today's turn, I wrote, "Embarking on phase three."  Wishful thinking.
 
Oz:  A Japanese force of unknown strength is landing at lightly guarded Cooktown.  This is the last essentially undefended hex on the East coast.  Cairns has a decent garrison, so if he comes further things will begin to get hot.  Meanwhile, my main concern is the status of the reinforcements convoys approaching from west and east.  Both groups are doing fine with no signs of danger yet.  The Japanese also landed at vacant Merauke.  No signs of a move on Darwin yet.  Brad will backfill there.
 
India:  Japanese recon are taking a peek at Christmas Island, south of Sumatra.  No sign of moves on Port Blair or Addu Atoll yet.  The Allies are trying to sneak single-ship xAKL TFs into Port Blair to speed up the evacuation of the troops that arrived there by air transport.  The air evacuation from Malaya and Sumatra went pretty well, mostly because Singapore held out longer than expected.  I need another ten days to get the Burma army out of the jungle and to base hexes where they will be useful, but I should have that long.  I transfered an Indian brigade from Hyderabad to Vizagapetum (spelling?).
 
Hawaii:  Quiet here.  Reinforcement convoys bound for Hilo (coastal artillery), Pearl Harbor (artillery), and Christmas Island (infantry battalion, engineers, and coastal AA) are loading at San Diego.
 
Carriers:  Hornet just arrived at East Coast.  She'll proceed to Capetown, as will a CL and DDs that just arrived at Balboa.  Enterprise is one day out of Capetown where she'll join the other three American CVs.  Indomitable is two days out, where she'll join Hermes.  The Allies can move a consolidated carrier force out of Capetown if the need or opportunity arises.  However, I think the "fleet in being" is working very well.  I don't think Brad has any idea where the carriers are - and he shouldn't.  He's not boldly sending forward invasion TFs in far-flung places as he would if he felt safe.  If this assessment on my part is accurate, I would do well to leave my carriers at Capetown until he reaches the point where he says, "The heck with it.  If he's not going to show his carrier, I'm going to fling caution to the wind until he does."
 
China:  The Chinese have a three-hex MLR east of Sian.  Brad has bumped up against it, but hasn't tried an attack in any of these three hexes, all forested, yet.  He's taken Kwangchoan, Pakhoi, Wuchow, and Kukong to the southeast, but these were lightly defended or vacant hexes.  He hasn't moved on the MLR (Changsha, etc.) yet.

[crsutton]

Yes, I think this is key to the Allies defense in scen #2-an intact carrier force in being that is well hidden. Once you get Wasp, you will have (for a brief time) 9 fleet carriers. The Japanese player has one or two options. One, it to use his fleet in mass but then is limited to attacking one major objective at a time. He can still very easily take key points on the map due to having a superior fleet and massive army but only can be sure of security if he using the entire KB to cover one project at a time. This will serve to limit the Japanese advance. The other option to split his carriers and resources to try and take multiple targets but this becomes very risky with the potential of the intact Allied carrier force showing up.
 
Personally, once I get through the July 1942 upgrades and squadron expansion, I feel like I can give KB a nice fair fight and it changes my outlook.
 
However, I do not like Cape Town as a location. The time for any sort of reaction is too long. There are plenty of out of the way ports to hide carriers in that are on map, but I suppose that you don't intend to hold them in Cape Town for long.
 
I don't like to even use the American carriers for raids because it is giving too much information to the Japanese player for usually too little in return.
 
I have to admit that I love Sigint. Three times in my game Sigint has pinpointed the location of a Japanese carrier. Incredibly valuable information.

[witpqs]

"Begin warm goo phase."

"Begin evacuation phase."

Name that movie!

[Canoerebel]

That's a good analysis, crsutton.  I agree with you on each point.
 
I have never gotten SigInt about a carrier location.  To me it would be the ultimate coup, especially earlier in the game.
 
I've never parked my carriers in Capetown before.  I did so in this game partly to keep them out of sight, partly on a hunch that they might be needed if Japan moves on India in a bit way, and partly because I thought I might get a crack at a Mini KB since Japanese players often like to employ one in the Indian Ocean either to raid Ceylon or to raid the Perth area.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

"Begin warm goo phase."

"Begin evacuation phase."

Name that movie!

Well, it isn't Casablanca....

[Cribtop]

One of the Austin Powers movies (Goldmember?)

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

One of the Austin Powers movies (Goldmember?)

I think it was the first movie where they showed him coming out of suspended animation.

[anarchyintheuk]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

One of the Austin Powers movies (Goldmember?)

I think it was the first movie where they showed him coming out of suspended animation.

Yup, first movie. Always liked Elizabeth Hurley.

[anarchyintheuk]

Going with a dumb question here. Does crew exp increase when sitting at Capetown?

[Canoerebel]

That would explain it.  I haven't seen any of the Austin Power movies.
 
anarchy, are you referring to ship crew experience or carrier pilot experience?  I have my carrier pilots set to train and I think that works normally at Capetown.

[anarchyintheuk]

Ship crew exp but now that you mention it . . . . thanks was wondering about pilot training as well.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That would explain it.  I haven't seen any of the Austin Power movies.

You really must see them (in order).

[Canoerebel]

2/15/42 to 2/17/42
 
Brad has really, really ramped up the activity around Oz and in Sumatra, but thus far he hasn't done anything that convinces me he's focusing on one or the other.

Oz:  144 Regiment and I/33rd Regiment are the units landing at Cooktown.  On the 17th, BBs Mutsu and Nagato bombarded Townsville (no damage to speak of) and Japanese troops landed at Palm Island just offshore.  These moves could be preliminary and relatively minor steps leading to bigger things, or just part of deception.  The Allied reinforcements continue to make their way unmolested - the western contingent of TFs have turned and are making the final run to Adelaide.  The easterly contingent are spread from south of Tasmania to south of NZ's South Island; the vanguard of this "train" will turn and make the final fun to Melbourne beginning tomorrow.

Sumatra/India:  Japanese landings all over the northern coast, including 2nd Division at Sabang.  That's a bit of overkill, so it tells me that Brad wants this base pronto.  That could be an indication that he has plans to move into the Bay of Bengal in the short term.  I've moved my Dutch patrol aircraft out.  I'll bet he moves on Port Blair in a week or ten days or less.  The Allies have 80 AV there, so it's not a freebee.  The main thing about India, at this point, is successfully extracting the Burma army from Burma.  That's beginning to look likely as most of the units are transiting the jungle hexes at a pace that I think gets them back to the railroad in two to three weeks.  The Japanese took a vacant Mandalay on the 16th.

Java:  The Japanese don't have quite enough to take Batavia, yet.  1:2 attack on the 15th didn't touch 3 forts; but 1:2 on the 17th dropped forts to two.  The Japanese took Jakarta on the 16th.

Hawaii:  A tank unit just unloaded at Hilo, bringing the AV there to 300.  Kona has an RCT with an AV of about 120.  I need another unit or two to Pearl Harbor, but I think Hawaii has a sufficient garrison at this point.

Sub Wars:  I-19 claimed xAK West Notes far to the NE of Hawaii.  This was part of a big supply convoy going to Pearl.  Plunger got an xAKL near Toyohara.  To this point, Japanese subs have almost been a non-factor.  The difference between this game and my game with Miller is on an order of 100.  Why?  Probably a complicated set of reasons:  changes to the code by the designers, the fact that nearly all Allied convoys have at least one DD escort, and probably different tactics employed by Brad.  I don't think he's sent subs to the West Coast yet.  (Miller - and anyone else reading this - please don't tutor Brad in the sub wars.  I don't think I can stand to go through that experience again.  Your use of subs was just awesome).

P.S. I have no desire to watch Austin Powers. Not my brand of pancake mix.

[Canoerebel]

2/18/42 and 2/19/42

Conquests: The Japanese take Medan, Cocos Islands (south of Java), and Palm Island (off Townsville). Sabang holds temporarily, but should fall next attack. Japan got a 1:1 at Batavia with forts falling to one; I think this base falls next attack.

What's Next? I feel sure that Port Blair will be next, but it has served its purpose. Alot of troops passed through and only one or two tiny cadres remain to be evacuated over the next day or two. My hunch still leands towards "India" rather than "Australia," but I'm trying to attend to both.

India: The Burma Army retreat continues in good order. Vanguard troops are already at Akyab and nearing the Kohima/Ledo line. The advance unit of an Oz division has just arrived at Karachi and will take the train to Calcutta.

Australia: The reinforcement convoys have all approached Oz close enough that I think they are safe from any KB raids. I have picket ships posted outside their positions and by the time any enemy carriers could arrive the transports will have reached port. The only danger, then, is subs. Arrival of these troops is a big step in the right direction. RO-62 got an AVP near Brisbane.

Hawaii: Things remain very quiet here.

SoPac: An EAB, Bobcats, and tank regiment are loading on transports at San Diego bound for Tahiti.