War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

I bet we'll see action against the continental United States.  I think there's a decent chance he'll invade Canada and engage in strategic bombing.  If not that, a carrier raid against West Coast shipping would be a good bet.
 
This really isn't a high pressure situation because the Allies have the means to counter these things and the assets are in place or show up here as reinforcements.  So I don't face the pressure of a blockade and trying to bring in troops and planes from far away, which are factors that contribut to making the defense of Oz and India so challenging. 
 
So I'd rather see Steve where he is (I think) than aiming hard for Oz.
 
 

[Walloc]

Well Historiker u have a number of restricted units withdrawing early on. After late feb u only got approx 2 restricted PGs left until later on.

Restricted u got:
14 PG withdraws july.
20 PG withdraws late feb
55 PG 1 squadron withdraw aug
55 PG 1 squadron withdraw 18 jan
54 PG withdraws 31 jan
1 PG withdraw 20 may

Non Restricted
51 PG
35 PG
55 PG 1 squadron
31 PG
18 PG 1 squadron
3 Marine squadrons, but with limited number of planes/reinforcement of planes.

And a couple of canadian squadrons.


Reinforcements Approx 3 PGs comming in first 52 days. All non restricted
Some Marines around day 90, but again planes the limiter here.

Real problem is as i see it, ok if u hafta have units on standby on west coast guarding against strikes, what u use for training purposes then. At leased it reduces ur possibilties.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

[Canoerebel]

Near the start of the game, I switched most of my West Coast "training squadrons" to 30% CAP and 10% or 20% training, just in case of a KB raid.
 
I haven't done any testing yet, but I have noted (mainly in my game with Chez Da Jez) that this configuration does result in pretty decent training progress.  I'd need to make test comparisons to determine this more exactly, but for now I think it's possible to train and defend to a degree that I suspect is acceptible.

[Walloc]

Sorry if i didnt make it clear. Not saying its not possible. Im just saying with restricted units alone, if he is serious about it. Then i dont see 7 squadrons doing the job from 21 feb on as enough. But one do have alot of other units.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

[JocMeister]

Isn´t the most limiting factor airframes and not squadrons?

[Walloc]

Absolutly an issue too, but my purpose of the original post was to set the following in context:

ORIGINAL: Historiker

How much strategic bombing can he do, after all? You have more than enough permanently restricted fighter units at the West Coast to deal with every bombing campaing, no?

Any thing is ofc relative. I just point out the post 21 feb '42 u in fact dont have more than 7 restricted squadrons left to defend the west coast vs "every bombing campaign". I could be wrong, but i think this is less than Historiker imagiens and lets on. Not that he does that on purpose.

This is far from the full picture, there are lots of non restricted units, reinforcements comming, the plane issues, training issue and so on.
Just pointing out if one expects a strategic bombing campaign that there might not be more than enough restricted units for u to feel safe.
Whether 7 makes you feel safe or not is naturally dependant on the individual player.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

High jack /off

[Canoerebel]

12/27/41

NoPac; Screen shot below of current situation. SigInt that IJ troops are bound for Juneau. If he's coming that far, he's in this thing whole hog. He'll move on Anchorage and most likely into Canda. Two USN subs put a total of four fish into CL Kitikami, sending her under.

West Coast: A sub puts a TT into Queen Elizabeth as she departs Los Angeles. She was escorted by a destroyer, so this came as an unpleasant surprise. Damage is light and she'll continue her journey south. If she develops bad damage control problems, I'll divert her to Pearl Harbor.

Eastern DEI: I don't think Steve has hard information about the location of the American carriers. Force Z refuels at Soerabaja.

China: The Chinese are about to have 4,000+ AV at or adjacent to Nanyang. Several solo IJA divisions are close by, so I'm hoping to get in some good licks soon.

[Lomri]

I can see him picking up bases that are likely not garrisoned. But shouldn't he be nailed badly landing in winter? If I weren't at work I'd double check to see if Juneau is in the cold zone, but I'd guess it is.

From Whittier he can march on Seward and Anchorage (and heck Fairbanks) so the landing isn't an issue there.

Again, this is sure great theater, and maybe PH has some super secret way to make this a big problem for you but so far it just seems more "cool" than anything else! Maybe you are suppose to get flustered and pay undue attention. I will be!

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lomri


I can see him picking up bases that are likely not garrisoned. But shouldn't he be nailed badly landing in winter? If I weren't at work I'd double check to see if Juneau is in the cold zone, but I'd guess it is.

From Whittier he can march on Seward and Anchorage (and heck Fairbanks) so the landing isn't an issue there.

Again, this is sure great theater, and maybe PH has some super secret way to make this a big problem for you but so far it just seems more "cool" than anything else! Maybe you are suppose to get flustered and pay undue attention. I will be!

Alaska could be a thorn if he wants it to be. It provides good bases close to the West Coast. This will help subs mostly. He could also send surface raiders down more easily.

The biggest thing is that any attack up here in the future will have to be staged from further away with greater chances of PH seeing it coming. Not everyone will be fortunate enough to pull off a trans-Pacific landing on Hokkaido and the Kuriles without being spotted. [;)]

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Lomri


I can see him picking up bases that are likely not garrisoned. But shouldn't he be nailed badly landing in winter? If I weren't at work I'd double check to see if Juneau is in the cold zone, but I'd guess it is.

From Whittier he can march on Seward and Anchorage (and heck Fairbanks) so the landing isn't an issue there.

Again, this is sure great theater, and maybe PH has some super secret way to make this a big problem for you but so far it just seems more "cool" than anything else! Maybe you are suppose to get flustered and pay undue attention. I will be!

I often make decisions based on entertainment value alone. This usually works of for a couple of months and then something bad happens.

I think the Juneau garrison is a reinforced boy scout troop.

[Canoerebel]

Has anybody ever looked at the Juneau garrison?  I haven't.  I'm sure it has some unique name like Mountain Badgers Detachment.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lomri


I can see him picking up bases that are likely not garrisoned. But shouldn't he be nailed badly landing in winter? If I weren't at work I'd double check to see if Juneau is in the cold zone, but I'd guess it is.

From Whittier he can march on Seward and Anchorage (and heck Fairbanks) so the landing isn't an issue there.

Again, this is sure great theater, and maybe PH has some super secret way to make this a big problem for you but so far it just seems more "cool" than anything else! Maybe you are suppose to get flustered and pay undue attention. I will be!

Alaska could be a thorn if he wants it to be. It provides good bases close to the West Coast. This will help subs mostly. He could also send surface raiders down more easily.

The biggest thing is that any attack up here in the future will have to be staged from further away with greater chances of PH seeing it coming. Not everyone will be fortunate enough to pull off a trans-Pacific landing on Hokkaido and the Kuriles without being spotted. [;)]

I think one thing the Greyjoy escapade showed us and that is the game is not ready for a Hokkaido Hurricane [:(] Despite sneaking an invasion across the Pacific ... bringing the whole Allied air force in range of the whole IJ air force in '44 breaks the game ..

Second thoughts ... In many places and points in history military decisions were made for political reasons. An invasion of Alaska would bring the full brunt of pressure to defend the west coast. In the game no such pressure exists, and I doubt very seriously in operational terms such pressure could be exerted. It might be a while before the IJ come to that conclusion. In the meantime the DEI becomes a challenge .. [8D]

EDIT: I thought Juneau just has a BF?

[CaptBeefheart]

Great to see you in action versus an aggressive opponent. I anticipate some good theater with this AAR. Assuming it is not an all or nothing effort, this Alaska/West Coast gambit can be countered by setting up an East Coast to Cape Town to Oz and/or India supply channel, as I first saw elucidated by Bullwinkle, if the going gets too rough for West Coast to Oz convoys.

Anyway, looking forward to learning some excellent strategic lessons from the inestimable Canoerebel.

Cheers,
CC

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Has anybody ever looked at the Juneau garrison?  I haven't.  I'm sure it has some unique name like Mountain Badgers Detachment.

Moose are involved.

No doubt about it.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lomri


I can see him picking up bases that are likely not garrisoned. But shouldn't he be nailed badly landing in winter? If I weren't at work I'd double check to see if Juneau is in the cold zone, but I'd guess it is.

Code question: which takes precedence? Cold weather rules or amhib bonus?

Hmm.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Has anybody ever looked at the Juneau garrison?  I haven't.  I'm sure it has some unique name like Mountain Badgers Detachment.

Moose are involved.

No doubt about it.

And Sarah Palin's grandpappy ...

[Canoerebel]

I'm a big fan of the Capetown route. At the start of this game, troops and aircraft when from West Coast to East Coast to Capetown. I also transferred a bunch of tankers and cargo vessels to East Coast via the Panama Canal.

[JeffroK]

I would like to see PH try the Canada approach.

Its different.

It will see CR put more effort into defending CONUS than normal, whether the investment is worth it we will find out?

PH will be in a good position to interdict the USA-HI LOC, basing out of Dutch Harbour etc he has a short sail to get across those LOC.

Whether is succeeds with CR pushing the door from the opossite side should be fun to watch.

PS, far all the talk about resrticted fighter units, dont forget this is where 99.99% of USAAF/USN/USMC Fighter Sqns spawn, might only be 7 restricted Sqns but might easily be 30+ unrestricted.

[Alfred]

A long time ago I explained how Japan could be successful in attacking the West Coast and Hawaii. I was dismissed as being mad.

Again I see somewhat superficial commentary which dismisses any Japanese action in this theatre as being essentially only a sideshow. In private I have recently communicated to a third party (I hasten to add it wasn't to either player in this match) why that Allied attitude is mistaken and can lead to a devastating Allied defeat at the hands of a strong Japanese player and a complacent Allied player.

In this post I will only discuss one element of a Japanese offensive in this theatre. It fills out the point Walloc has been making.

A6M2 Zeros based at Coal Harbor, using drop tanks can range as follows.

1. There are 8 American and 8 Canadian bases with industry within range. That means:

• a bare minimum of 16 Allied fighter squadrons are required for basic CAP - 32 squadrons if a layered CAP, which is essential to defeating Zero sweeps in the first half of 1942, is taken into account
• good luck going up against the Zero with P-36 and P-43, and other similar quality, airframes which comprise a fair bit of the available fighter strength
• good luck opposing Zero Sentais with those miniscule fighter HQ units

2. Excluding the aircraft factories found within the target area, there are:

• 30 Manpower centres
• 1940 Resource centres
• 280 Heavy Industry centres
• 960 Light Industry centres
• 405 Repair Shipyard points
• 110 Oil centres
• 110 Refinery centres

That represent 3835 industrial centres. If destroyed they provide 76700 VPs to Japan. Anyone still complacent that a Japanese auto victory on 1 January 1943 is not possible?

3. If Japan decides instead to damage and not destroy these industrial centres, the potential harvest of VPs is dependent on whether the Allies continue to repair them. Even if repaired, that is a great impost on Allied supply. At 1000 supply points to repair each individual damaged industry centre at a rate of 1 per day at each industrial facility, just how much surplus supply (from an already greatly reduced industrial base) would remain available to be shipped overseas.

4. Within the target area there are 3 aircraft factories. None is in production on 7 December 1941 and the two American ones are tooled to produce aircraft no earlier than the second half of 1944 so the loss of their production will not be a factor to stop a Japanese auto victory. But the Canadian factory is the sole source of the British Catalina I. Destroy/disrupt that factory and you soon have a major naval search/ASW problem in India.

5. Unlike the Japanese player, Allied industrial centres, once destroyed are gone forever. There is no Lazarus for them. Go back to point 2 above. Destroy/disable those 110 Oil centres and you run out of Oil -> Fuel to feed the remaining Heavy Industry located outside of the target area. Those 110 Oil centres normally would result in 990 fuel points. Thus the Allied player potentailly faces not just the loss of the 280 Heavy Industry centres in the target area, but an additional 215 Heavy Industry centres outside of the target area would lack the necessary feedstock.

6. Consider just one ripple effect. With the loss of 495 Heavy Industry centres, would the Allies still have the luxury of turning off all Heavy Industry in Australia (in order to conserve fuel stocks for fleet operations) and still be able to feed their remaining on map aircraft factories.

And this is just one of the possible threats from a Japanese offensive in this theatre. As the KB has been identified in theatre, I have no doubt Canoerebel's opponent is engaged in a theatre offensive. what are his exact objectives, I don't know because I don't read his AAR and there are other attractive options available to him. I don't know if this is the case but one should proceed on the basis that Nemo has provided input, either currently or from old posts. It therefore behoves people to think outside of the circle and not rest on complacent "truths" which are really only myths not based on rigorous analysis.

Alfred

Edit: forgot to mention that the Seattle ship repair yard which is within the target area is also one of the only 4 shipyards capable of repairing the 16" guns of the Iowa class.

[JeffroK]

Veery Interesting.....

I suppose the JFB has to weigh up the cost of doing this, could he sustain it.

While building up this approach what is the AFB doing.

I'm nott sure how big your Coal Harbour airbase can grow, but it would make a nice target for those restricted USAAF bombers, plenty of B17 & B26 plus useful B18's and a number of large airbases in the area to base from.

I cant wait to see what builds from this, can what Alfred mentions be continued in the face of an effective AFB counter, afterall, Pearl Harbor is well placed to interdict the JFB LOC as well. Maybe a failed land campaign in the DEI, Burma, PI or Singapore because troops have been sent to the West Coast could create a hiccup. As we know, a bad die roll on a major battle could see either sides CV's wiped out.

I hope Nemo isnt providing help, his sage advise to Greyjoy broke the game, cant afford for that to happen this early, BUT, it might see some AFB restrictions enforced because this approach was unlikely being questioned and maybe a better game result..