Burns vs. Flaviusx

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
If the Germans want to take Portugal they also have to go through Vichy France and then Spain to do it, which is doable, but also commits them to a very western oriented strategy which they may or may not want to do. The British can cause trouble in both NA and Spain itself, although in the latter case they risk destruction. The Spanish army is not bad, but it takes some time to fully mobilize and needs some help in terms of production.

Yeah I'm chomping at the bit to do a German game next (only ever do one PBEM at a time). I'll forgo Yugoslavia and Greece in favor of Spain and Portugal. I can do the Balkans in 42 after Germany becomes so powerful.

In our game I've been puzzling over the 6% dilemma and I think there may be a solution. If I can keep a French invasion force within 5 hexes of air cover form England (leaves one hex for German front line within fighter coverage), I may be able to keep the German effectiveness so low that their 34% recovery won't matter.

This will take a massive airforce of course, and I'm not sure I've got the time, logistics or production to pull this off. This is something I should have been planning for since day one. All that cash wasted on naval stuff... Should have been building the airforce up all along.

Jim

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: Alvaro Sousa
What an interesting AAR

Thanks, glad you enjoyed it.

Jim

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
I don't have a save, but it probably was a supply source, because it was minor ally.

The two Vichy minors don't provide a supply source, I think it's the production center that might be what is needed. Hopefully I can flip Portugal soon and we can find out for sure.

Jim

[Flaviusx]

I sneak away a couple more Italian infantry corps from NA. One of my HQ disbands itself and the men take to fishing boats. Scattered remnants of the Italian army remain to be mopped up by the Allied war machine. Tripoli remains in Italian hands but will likely fall this next turn to a determined allied assault.

The weather gods continue to favor Germany in Russia. I create a breakthrough by Kursk and pour through. The Red armor is strong and I am somewhat worried about counterattacks, but the Red Air Force is keeping its distance and this should give me an edge.

Orel beckons. So, maybe, Tula.

My panzer generals are whispering Moscow in my ear. I am sternly resisting their excited advice to commit the panzer reserve to the east. No. I must not overreach.

[Jim D Burns]

7 May 1943

In what looks to be another bad year for the weather gods, Russia is clear weather both north and south. Germany takes advantage and launches a northern assault from the area of Kursk gaining two hexes on a two hex front.

With Moscow so close, Germany clearly demonstrating its ability to make significant headway vs. 1943 Soviet forces and considering the fact that I assume this is the critical year in Russia, I toggle on hold at all cost orders for all my units. I can no longer afford to trade space for time, the Soviets must hold this year or be knocked out of the war, so manpower be damned.

In Africa the allies continue to mop up the remnant Italians. Just two units remain one each in the last two ports,Tripoli and Gabes.

[Flaviusx]

More clear weather on May 14, 1943.

The Allies sink a German division in transit to Sardinia. My luck was bound run out on this sometime. But I managed to evacuate the last two Italian infantry corps in Gabes and Tripoli with no interference, and these were sent to Sardinia to bolster the garrison there.

In the East I had a choice here. I had a clear shot at Orel from four sides. But my primary objective this year isn't Orel, or Tula, let alone Moscow. It is grind up the Red Army and diminish it to a point where I can hold on to my gains in the Soviet Union and transfer more units to the west.

I also have the recent example of Kursk itself here, and taking Orel would require the full attention of the entire luftwaffe and result in massive casualties.

Instead, the Wehrmacht launched Operation Meatgrinder. The objective is to turn this area in Central Russia into a killing ground and grind up as many Soviet formations as possible. Whatever territorial objective come along the way are more or less secondary to this.

Having baited the Soviet forward and forced them to fight in clear terrain without any entrenchments I simply look for as many opportunities to inflict damage as possible. Even the Red Air Force is moving forward to meet the threat.

End result: 80 soviet points lost on the ground, 5 in the air, and Germany took 19 in the ground and 1 in the air in return. (Leaving aside the sunk division en route to Sardinia.) This is a favorable exchange ratio. Assuming an average of 10 production points per lost factor, it well exceeds the Soviet replacement ability.

The panzer reserve remains uncommitted. The first of four infantry corps in the queue arrives this turn. I will not commit this reserve to the East if I can possibly avoid it.

A lone Italian diplomat snipes three points off Portugal and it now stands at 87% allied. An exercise in futility, but I have to try to delay this Portuguese entry as long as possible.

[Flaviusx]

Notes on the German war economy as of May 1943.

The production multiplier is now at 1.97, and German production is just shy of 600 points. This is almost 3 times what Germany begins with.

The logistical pool stands at about 150 points. I'm tapped out here or near enough. A German infantry corps requires 30 logistic points to build, a mobile corps 60 points. HQs are 10 and air units are 30, I believe. The only way I can increase this logistic pool now are either to lose units, or set more of them on garrison mode. In Russia I have gradually been activating units because I want them to be able to move if necessary. During the winter season, much of this line goes into garrison mode, which frees up a lot of logistic points and also a good deal of production, but now is now that time.

German manpower stands at about 60%. If it falls below 50% new builds will have an experience level below either 70% on the ground or 50% in the air. But new builds are almost a moot point now. I have the ability to maybe build a half dozen units of whatever flavor I chose. Possibly one more panzer corps and the rest infantry.

German production, as amazing as it is right now, is mostly going to go towards trucks, replacements, and flak. There is simply not enough logistic capacity now to plan out massive new builds, despite the war economy operating on all cylinders.

Oil. Each year Germany gets one new synthetic oil plant for 5 points online after 1939. I am presently producing 75 oil per turn. Germany has 1000 oil in the bank or so. Unlike the early war years, oil is no longer a major constraining factor. Manpower and logistics are my major constraining factors.

[Flaviusx]

I love the entire economic model in this game, btw. Brilliant.

You can build whatever military you want, but there are very real constraining factors. Production, logistics, manpower, oil. It's a balancing act between all of these. Some of this may need to be adjusted, but the basic model is sound, simple, and have I already said brilliant?

[Jim D Burns]

21 May 1943

More clear weather in Russia and Germany takes advantage turning it into its usual meat grinder, though no units are outright destroyed. Lots of airstrikes on my forward fighter fields, but now that I have 43 interceptors my units appear to weather it with no devastating effects as occurred before.

With Africa abandoned the allies begin the slow process of withdrawing back to Britain. I'll try and leave a garrison that does not require any supply trucks. An Italian sub ventures close to the US airforce in Tunisia and is sunk via air strikes.

Looking at Italy I just do not see how the allies can repeat history and force their way ashore there and stay. Italy announced long ago it had reached its logistic cap in production, none of the allies are even close to such a feat as yet. With so many German units also committed to give the Italians some backbone I'm actually contemplating ignoring Italy.

I guess I could try invading deeper into Italy up north, but with so many airfields in the south, I suspect anything that tried to transition that deep would be sunk at sea. due to no friendly fighter cover over the landings.

Not to mention the fact an airforce adequate to the job of winning over air superiority in the south will have to operate on supply trucks alone. Just not possible against a fully supplied German/Italian airforce in Italy.

I'm open to thoughts/ideas from the readers on this. If I screw up this next phase it'll probably set the allied timetables back so far as to prevent getting ashore in France till late 45. Should I forgo Italy and just build up for the big landing in 44?

I guess I could just cheese it and send everything to Portugal if/when I get it and say screw any landings. With a production center it'll provide full supply and mean I can face down the axis on equal supply terms.

[tyronec]

How about invading Turkey, you could threaten a few more places from there and stretch out the Axis air forces.

[Flaviusx]

Italy is no longer at its logistic cap after the bloodletting in NA. About 265 left now.

More clear weather in Russia. I decided to get Orel out of the way this turn, it was simply getting in the way. I found a relatively economical way to do this: surrounded it on 6 six sides and forced it to surrender after a couple of attacks. Still, this was not quite as profitable in terms of raw factors lost as last turn. The unit is gone, however, so there is that. One less mech corps in the Soviet order of battle.

I'm also forced to cough up an infantry corps from the reserve and send it east because I have far too many panzers occupying the front lines and not enough grunts to take their place. With 120 logistics left in the bank, I won't be able to do much more of this.

[AlbertN]

I believe to seize Corsica and Sardinia may net you some ports and airbases at least though which expand your threatening reaches.
Start with the perimeter - Crete, Rhodes, etc.

As Allies you should have the oil also to bomb away at the Sicily airfields to gain air superiority there. I do not believe Italy can replace that much nor that it gains supreme manpower.

[Flaviusx]

Italy is fine on manpower. But at 100 production, it is definitely not an economic powerhouse and cannot replace losses easily.

I suppose Germany could lend it production if it comes down to that.

If I lose Sardinina, that may force Italy to surrender. This is pretty much the weak spot in the Italian defense right now. OTOH, I have a lot of airpower nearby covering the island.

Germany has made a very big commitment to keeping Italy in the war. 2 fighters, 2 HQs, something like 10 infantry corp equivalents. It's definitely stretching me. The Eastern front could sure use that infantry right now.

[Jim D Burns]

4 June 1943

Feeling over confident the Germans wear down their Panzer and mech units for a second turn in a row. The Soviets counter attack, roughly handling the LVI Panzer corp (over 2/3rds of the unit destroyed I think) and shattering a mech Corps.

While Germany still has the ability to push me around, letting his units get down into the 10-12 range leaves them open to the 1943 Soviets, who are much stronger than they were in 41 or 42. I pull my line back a bit to force him to use action points to close with the troops who just attacked. One Cav is left exposed, but the sacrifice was needed to cut off the mech's retreat path.

In north Africa the evacuation of troops towards England continues.

[Flaviusx]

Yeah, unfortunately taking Orel left some panzers exposed.

[AlbertN]

Something I am not sure of, is how much a CV offers air cover to invasions out of fighter range. But atm Corsica and Sardinia may offer some ports, and Cagliari can be interdicted from Tunisia iirc by the Allies, so some troopers and fighters in these islands is what the Allies should go with.

It can also open up the possibility to land with some air cover in North Italy or South France.

But for the Allies to sit down and wait for '44 - not sure it may work well as Germany can focus more on Russia.

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: tyronec
How about invading Turkey, you could threaten a few more places from there and stretch out the Axis air forces.

I have been looking at this, Turkey does not have much port capacity to land and take that could do this, so long range stockpiles from the middle east would have to feed an army large enough to get to and take Ankara. I'll have to sit down and crunch the numbers when I have time, today is not a good day for that unfortunately, bit too busy.

With all those mountains in the way, I estimate 3 turns to just get into position. How to keep Germany out of Turkey for three turns though?

Jim

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: Cohen_slith
But for the Allies to sit down and wait for '44 - not sure it may work well as Germany can focus more on Russia.

Trust me I am aware of this. Problem is this is my first human opponent, so I am just not sure what it will take. I need to sit down and crunch the numbers in Tunisia. "If" the area can support enough air power to at least cover a landing then perhaps I can do a long range invasion with fully supplied troops from England.

No way can Tunisia support a land army and a decent airforce, and I doubt the airforce will be decent even with no large land army around to suck up supplies. But without a greater recovery rate then 6% my airfoce will never protect a landing force.

I did put together that chart today, it would be really nice to know if support missions flown in the enemies turn increase supply demand.

Jim

[Flaviusx]

The sacrificial cav unit died as expected, I took a few other shots as well and tried to be more careful with my deployments this time.

Another infantry corps goes east. And I coughed up a fighter from the reserve to go with it, the Red Air Force requires some more TLC.

That lost mech corps will be replaced with a panzer corps in due course. I'm down to 120 logistics even after losing that corps. So, 3 more units left to build unless the Soviet obliges me by shattering some more units.

[tyronec]

I have been looking at this, Turkey does not have much port capacity to land and take that could do this, so long range stockpiles from the middle east would have to feed an army large enough to get to and take Ankara. I'll have to sit down and crunch the numbers when I have time, today is not a good day for that unfortunately, bit too busy.

The rail links through to Egypt so I think all those ports could work too if you take Syria.
Maybe need a naval invasion of Istanbul to keep Axis out.