ORIGINAL: veji1
If i was him I would follow through with a strategy of pin and outflank. you are partly pinned around Molu and in the DEI, what could he do not to land a decisive blow, but to pin you elsewhere. Think "where could he land on 2 mutually supporting bases simultanously with a reasonnably big assault force and from there get the ball rolling ?". classic SWPAC doesn't fit the bill as it is very far, but maybe he could land on 2 or 3 three north NG bases simultaneously ? Not very practical, but just thinking out loud.
South Java and west Sumatra make lots of sense as well in that respect.
Yes. For those reasons i had heavily garrisoned everything north of Wewak. Untill that point he can invade at will...and i don't really matter. i'll fight, obviously, but he can take those bases (and accept the risks) if he really wants to. But Vanimo has a full division, Hollandia a reinforced regiment and it's all guarded up to Biak. Untill he neutralizes Rabaul that won't be, however, an easy trip. And the KB can be moved there in no time.
Consider also that he will need a full CV support to move any further than Finshafen...
Sumatra is well defended imho. I have created a very interesting "triangulation" between Sebang, Palemang and Benkoleng. I have more than 100 planes (Emilies, Mavis, G3N3s and Dinah-IIIs) searching the waters around Sumatra and i think i'll have enough pre-warning to be able to react properly.
At the moment the real "blind spot" is CENTPAC and NOPAC...but NOPAC is very well guarded and CENTPAC means for him to try a risky atoll-landing against well prepared defences and without any LBA aid. Moreover i still think most of his APA/AKAs are in SOPAC and Northern Oz at the moment