Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

12/26/44

L+5

[Canoerebel]

12/26/44

L+5: There were another six or eight fragmented raids against Wakkanai, of little or no effect, like this one.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/26/44

L+5: There's no accounting for pure dumb luck, sometimes.

You say dumb luck, I say absurd late-44 USN flak levels.

And possibly pilot quality.

[Canoerebel]

12/26/44

L+5: A select few B-29 squadrons participate in ground strikes.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
...
You say dumb luck, I say absurd late-44 USN flak levels.

And possibly pilot quality.

Keep reading (from the point that you quoted me), and you'll see why I referred to it as dumb luck.

[Canoerebel]

12/26/44

L+5

[Canoerebel]

12/26/44

L+5

[Canoerebel]

12/26/44

L+5: It's finally afternoon.

[mind_messing]

Late war flak is murderous, especially on IJ dive bombers that go right in to the envelope of the close-range stuff.

Even without that, the abundance of 5" and 6" DP guns that the Allied get in abundance, it ain't as much fun to be in a IJ dive bomber as it was in '42.

[Canoerebel]

12/26/44

L+5

[Canoerebel]

12/26/44

L+5

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Late war flak is murderous, especially on IJ dive bombers that go right in to the envelope of the close-range stuff.

Even without that, the abundance of 5" and 6" DP guns that the Allied get in abundance, it ain't as much fun to be in a IJ dive bomber as it was in '42.

Yeah, I don't think it would've been fun at all.

[Canoerebel]

12/26/44

L+5: Might end up with some Reserve Marianas Turkey Shoot-like numbers here. Oof.

[Canoerebel]

12/26/44

L+5: Each side has lost seven DDs, by my count.

[Canoerebel]

12/26/44

L+5: Japanese losses continue to mount. Japan took an early decided advantage in this contest. The fighting was hard and prolonged and losses to both sides noteworthy. In the end, the layers and depths of the Allies defenses eventually took control and wore down the attackers.

[Canoerebel]

12/26/44

L+5: Turn beginning to wind down now. Only the land battles remain.

[Canoerebel]

12/26/44

L+5: Japanese fail to dislodge loan Allied armor unit blocking advance to the key wooded hex. Erik may bomb and attack again tomorrow. I think the next attack will dislodge my armor, but it bought at least one more day.

Can I get the reinforcing infantry division to that wooded hex tomorrow (or is it possible it arrived today, despite the various messages that suggested it didn't)?

[Canoerebel]

12/26/44

L+5: Decent Allied bombardment today. Enemy AVs remain suppressed after yesterday's attack.

Allied army likely to attack again tomorrow.

A reinforcing Allied division is inbound from the wooded hex. But I may have to halt it - keep it in the wooded hex - if the transports carrying that other division don't unload in time. I want at least one US Army division in the woods hex when Erik's army arrives in four to six days.

I think the timing will work out so that the Allies get at least two more attacks at Wakkanai before Erik can begin contesting the woods hex.

And his objectives may change after today's fighting. His air force remains very strong but his navy is hurting badly.

[Canoerebel]

12/26/44

Intel Screen: Air losses heavy but not as one-sided as I figured. I feared that my lost strike aircraft totals might be through the roof.

[Canoerebel]

12/26/44

Air Losses: Nearly all Allied strike aircraft losses were LBA. Death Star strike aircraft weren't involved, so Death Star should be just as dangerous as ever.

Japanese fighter losses look to be mainly second-tier fighters?

The Rex losses might represent three BBs - Ise (confirmed sunk) and Yamato + Hyuga (both likely).

Allied sea and air losses will be felt. It's hard to replace and sustain these kinds of numbers...and yet, I think the Allies can continue the fight. Japanese air losses are material and have been pretty high the past week but the air force remains extremely powerful. But I think the Japanese navy is really hurting. I thought it was really hurting before this battle but capable of delivering one strong punch. This was that punch.

Erik has remaining a number of undamaged CAs and BBs and whatever KB consists of at this point.

Defending the Home Island with a strong air force and a cobbled-together force of sea assets is challenging but possible.

But the dire state of the IJN, as I reckon it, means that the ability of the Allied navy to move is enhanced, and missions like bombardment should be more and more possible.