Ground Strike. Azerbaijan 67,75.
(1) Rommel sees a blitz opportunity the Soviet mech army & div (1-hex east of the Free French & CW HQ stack).
(2) However; he can only muster 2 mech corps and no div (no mot or otherwise).
(3) Raw odds are +5B, which gives a 79% PWIN, 58% no loss & only 28% breakthrough.
(4) However; a successful ground strike against the mot army (+7B) would give 90% PWIN, 69% no loss & 45% breakthrough.
(5) Flipping both (+8B) would give 94% PWIN, 73% no loss & 55% breakthrough.
(6) While taking a loss with only 2 mech attacking, what's significant is the breakthrough which (assuming 80% turn continues) would force the USSR to take a combine to save Baku.
(7) Rommel will order the blitz if the Luftwaffe ground strike manages to flip the Soviet mot army.
(8) And, of course, it failed. The Stuka was shot down!
(9) Blitz NOT ordered.
(10) Also, Rommel considered ordering an assault against the flipped IND Mil on the southwest flank.
(11) However; this would require +10A which had 97% PWIN, but carried with it a 25% chance of losing 1, 17% losing 2 & 3% losing 3 of the 4 high quality attacking units.
(12) Rommel opted not to assault and decided to use maneuver to flank the Western Allies in southern Russia.
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