OT: Corona virus

[Cap Mandrake]

Evidently, the French advocate for Hydroxyuracil feels it is an ethical problem to NOT give Hydroxyuracil so his study of 80 patients has NO control group.

That WOULD be correct if you already knew it worked...which we don't.

Fauci from NIH is right. You can't make a rational recommendation affecting millions without a control group.

[Chickenboy]

Didn't Gov. Cuomo state earlier this week or late last week that they were going to be trying a drug cocktail trial on an exigency basis on critical patients in NYC? I wonder if they have and, if so, what their preliminary results are.

[DD696]

They were authorized to start Tuesday. Today he said it has started but I cannot remember how many have been given to patients. Probably way too soon to know how much effect it will have.

President now saying he may quarantine the New York metro area. Guess we know now why the Ready Reserves are being activated.

Edit: I suppose a 73 year old asthmatic/COPD/cancer surviving Marine could be useful for a very limited time.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: DD696

They were authorized to start Tuesday. Today he said it has started but I cannot remember how many have been given to patients. Probably way too soon to know how much effect it will have.

President now saying he may quarantine the New York metro area. Guess we know now why the Ready Reserves are being activated.

Edit: I suppose a 73 year old asthmatic/COPD/cancer surviving Marine could be useful for a very limited time.

Escape from New York should become a popular movie again.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: DD696

They were authorized to start Tuesday. Today he said it has started but I cannot remember how many have been given to patients. Probably way too soon to know how much effect it will have.

Unfortunately, they still have enough critical patients that they should have a decent sample size for their study design. [:(]

[RangerJoe]

Would the people who have did not get the drug combination work as a control group if everyone now seriously ill were to receive the drug combination? This is in regards to a double blind study. Or would you use information for the same patient as to before and after the drug combination? Or analyze both scenarios?

[DD696]

Yes, but how long does that take before relevant and believable results are accepted?

In other news, a cat in Belgium tested positive for covid-19. Very sick little kitty got it from human companion.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

You know, I am pretty sure that is a pangolin fetus in the soup. [X(]

Angry yet? Turns out the Chinese ATE all their pangolins so they smuggle them in from Myanmar

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 9415300342

Study in Nature suggests pangolin may be an intermediate or additional mammalian host. There may be another vector or "amplification" species involved. What is known that the greatest sequence homology between SARS-2 and other known Betacoronaviruses is with horseshoe bat and pangolin strains.

For SARS-1 it was civet and bat.

I would wager not one in this forum could sneak in a half-eaten candy bar into China but somehow live pangolin are backpacked in from Myanmar over mountains and jungles with no roads.

This is an interesting article that brings a bit more of the industrialised food industry under scrutiny as related to this outbreak. We now it's not just the wild, but the domesticated, that can bring about these kinds of outbreaks.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

[witpqs]

An NYC doctor discusses COVID-19, especially what they've learned about transmission. 47 minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxyH1rkuLaw

[alanschu]

I missed this if it was posted here, but mayor of Nembro (in N. Italy) wrote an editorial for a paper.

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_mar ... 1130.shtml

Crux of it is he suggests that coronavirus impacts on fatalities is probably about 4x higher than the numbers directly associated with Covid-19. Normal deaths in the city from January to March are about 35 per year, but this year there has been 158 so far, with 31 of them being officially logged as a result of Covid-19.

Not all cities are the same, but I know one point of curiosity for myself has definitely been how much impact an overburdened health care system has had on the whole population beyond those suffering from Covid-19.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

You know, I am pretty sure that is a pangolin fetus in the soup. [X(]

Angry yet? Turns out the Chinese ATE all their pangolins so they smuggle them in from Myanmar

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 9415300342

Study in Nature suggests pangolin may be an intermediate or additional mammalian host. There may be another vector or "amplification" species involved. What is known that the greatest sequence homology between SARS-2 and other known Betacoronaviruses is with horseshoe bat and pangolin strains.

For SARS-1 it was civet and bat.

I would wager not one in this forum could sneak in a half-eaten candy bar into China but somehow live pangolin are backpacked in from Myanmar over mountains and jungles with no roads.

This is an interesting article that brings a bit more of the industrialised food industry under scrutiny as related to this outbreak. We now it's not just the wild, but the domesticated, that can bring about these kinds of outbreaks.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

I will say this much, free range chicken from small farms tastes so much better!

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

You know, I am pretty sure that is a pangolin fetus in the soup. [X(]

Angry yet? Turns out the Chinese ATE all their pangolins so they smuggle them in from Myanmar

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 9415300342

Study in Nature suggests pangolin may be an intermediate or additional mammalian host. There may be another vector or "amplification" species involved. What is known that the greatest sequence homology between SARS-2 and other known Betacoronaviruses is with horseshoe bat and pangolin strains.

For SARS-1 it was civet and bat.

I would wager not one in this forum could sneak in a half-eaten candy bar into China but somehow live pangolin are backpacked in from Myanmar over mountains and jungles with no roads.

This is an interesting article that brings a bit more of the industrialised food industry under scrutiny as related to this outbreak. We now it's not just the wild, but the domesticated, that can bring about these kinds of outbreaks.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

Sorry, obvert. That article is rubbish six ways from Sunday.

The main factors with the rampant spread of human H5/H7 avian influenza in China are not CAFOs (Concentrated Animal Feeding Operation-I won't use the same inflammatory language as they repeatedly choose to descibe these operations), but small 'backyard' type operations, their abominable biosecurity and anachronistic use of wet markets. Same story with African Swine Fever (ASF) that has decimated their swine herd there for the last year and a half and caused the price of pork there to skyrocket. And don't even get me started on bats/wildlife/coronaviruses. I'm just curious how many epidemics this sort of behavior has to start in China for the leadership to modernize? I guess five is not enough?

If people have an ongoing demand for consumption of animal protein, the best thing for the world is efficient production of well-regulated, clean and professionally tended flocks/herds. How else to feed 9 billion (2050 estimates) people? Resumption of anachronistic bronze-age animal husbandry and farming practices would be disastrous.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

You know, I am pretty sure that is a pangolin fetus in the soup. [X(]

Angry yet? Turns out the Chinese ATE all their pangolins so they smuggle them in from Myanmar

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 9415300342

Study in Nature suggests pangolin may be an intermediate or additional mammalian host. There may be another vector or "amplification" species involved. What is known that the greatest sequence homology between SARS-2 and other known Betacoronaviruses is with horseshoe bat and pangolin strains.

For SARS-1 it was civet and bat.

I would wager not one in this forum could sneak in a half-eaten candy bar into China but somehow live pangolin are backpacked in from Myanmar over mountains and jungles with no roads.

This is an interesting article that brings a bit more of the industrialised food industry under scrutiny as related to this outbreak. We now it's not just the wild, but the domesticated, that can bring about these kinds of outbreaks.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

I will say this much, free range chicken from small farms tastes so much better!

That's the grass, bugs, animal feces (including their own) and Salmonella flavoring. Mmm-mmm good.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: alanschu

I missed this if it was posted here, but mayor of Nembro (in N. Italy) wrote an editorial for a paper.

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_mar ... 1130.shtml

Crux of it is he suggests that coronavirus impacts on fatalities is probably about 4x higher than the numbers directly associated with Covid-19. Normal deaths in the city from January to March are about 35 per year, but this year there has been 158 so far, with 31 of them being officially logged as a result of Covid-19.

Not all cities are the same, but I know one point of curiosity for myself has definitely been how much impact an overburdened health care system has had on the whole population beyond those suffering from Covid-19.

A good article in the Wall Street Journal today that elaborated on some of this. Since 'elective' surgeries have been cancelled en masse, many patients that were due to get cardiac bypass or stents or other needed (and already scheduled) surgeries have been postponed indefinitely.

Amongst others, the Journal article talked with a family whose father was scheduled to get already delayed cardiac bypass surgery. His scheduled surgery date (March 19) was the day after the hospital terminated elective surgeries. The surgery would have saved his life. He died from complications of cardiovascular disease two days later.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

You know, I am pretty sure that is a pangolin fetus in the soup. [X(]

Angry yet? Turns out the Chinese ATE all their pangolins so they smuggle them in from Myanmar

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 9415300342

Study in Nature suggests pangolin may be an intermediate or additional mammalian host. There may be another vector or "amplification" species involved. What is known that the greatest sequence homology between SARS-2 and other known Betacoronaviruses is with horseshoe bat and pangolin strains.

For SARS-1 it was civet and bat.

I would wager not one in this forum could sneak in a half-eaten candy bar into China but somehow live pangolin are backpacked in from Myanmar over mountains and jungles with no roads.

This is an interesting article that brings a bit more of the industrialised food industry under scrutiny as related to this outbreak. We now it's not just the wild, but the domesticated, that can bring about these kinds of outbreaks.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

Yes, interesting piece but the author is conflating influenza with coronavirus. They are BOTH risks but there are very different.

Avian influenza was nasty to humans being but you had to almost roll around with chickens under your house to get it.

Nor do I accept his anti-capitalist theme which was barely concealed. Of course, it almost goes without saying that Chinese poultry farms are nasty.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: alanschu

I missed this if it was posted here, but mayor of Nembro (in N. Italy) wrote an editorial for a paper.

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_mar ... 1130.shtml

Crux of it is he suggests that coronavirus impacts on fatalities is probably about 4x higher than the numbers directly associated with Covid-19. Normal deaths in the city from January to March are about 35 per year, but this year there has been 158 so far, with 31 of them being officially logged as a result of Covid-19.

Not all cities are the same, but I know one point of curiosity for myself has definitely been how much impact an overburdened health care system has had on the whole population beyond those suffering from Covid-19.

A good article in the Wall Street Journal today that elaborated on some of this. Since 'elective' surgeries have been cancelled en masse, many patients that were due to get cardiac bypass or stents or other needed (and already scheduled) surgeries have been postponed indefinitely.

Amongst others, the Journal article talked with a family whose father was scheduled to get already delayed cardiac bypass surgery. His scheduled surgery date (March 19) was the day after the hospital terminated elective surgeries. The surgery would have saved his life. He died from complications of cardiovascular disease two days later.

Yes, this is what epidemilogists label "excess deaths". You look at the deaths around an event (like Hurricane Maria) and then you count mortality compared to the same population and time of year before the event. This is how they got a figure like 50,000 deaths in PR from Maria when only 12 people had trees fall on them or drowned (figures made up).

[Chickenboy]

On a positive note, COVID-19 survivors Tom Hanks and his wife have returned to the United States. They expressed gratitude for their excellent treatment during quarantine down under. Tom even learned that he shouldn't put the vegemite on too thick on his toast. I dunno. A molecule thickness of that stuff seems too thick for me.

[obvert]

Cases today in the FT.

[obvert]

An interesting way to look at testing is the number positive per 1000. The areas with a higher rate here are some big concentrations of this disease. Michigan looking bad now. If 35% of people tested are positive there is a lot of it out there.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

You know, I am pretty sure that is a pangolin fetus in the soup. [X(]

Angry yet? Turns out the Chinese ATE all their pangolins so they smuggle them in from Myanmar

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 9415300342

Study in Nature suggests pangolin may be an intermediate or additional mammalian host. There may be another vector or "amplification" species involved. What is known that the greatest sequence homology between SARS-2 and other known Betacoronaviruses is with horseshoe bat and pangolin strains.

For SARS-1 it was civet and bat.

I would wager not one in this forum could sneak in a half-eaten candy bar into China but somehow live pangolin are backpacked in from Myanmar over mountains and jungles with no roads.

This is an interesting article that brings a bit more of the industrialised food industry under scrutiny as related to this outbreak. We now it's not just the wild, but the domesticated, that can bring about these kinds of outbreaks.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

Sorry, obvert. That article is rubbish six ways from Sunday.

The main factors with the rampant spread of human H5/H7 avian influenza in China are not CAFOs (Concentrated Animal Feeding Operation-I won't use the same inflammatory language as they repeatedly choose to descibe these operations), but small 'backyard' type operations, their abominable biosecurity and anachronistic use of wet markets. Same story with African Swine Fever (ASF) that has decimated their swine herd there for the last year and a half and caused the price of pork there to skyrocket. And don't even get me started on bats/wildlife/coronaviruses. I'm just curious how many epidemics this sort of behavior has to start in China for the leadership to modernize? I guess five is not enough?

If people have an ongoing demand for consumption of animal protein, the best thing for the world is efficient production of well-regulated, clean and professionally tended flocks/herds. How else to feed 9 billion (2050 estimates) people? Resumption of anachronistic bronze-age animal husbandry and farming practices would be disastrous.

You don't bring up the point that in fact a lot of the backyard producers of wild animals were forced into that practice to make a living because they could no longer make it in an industrialised farming world with a small family farm. So there are knock-on effects, and we know western industrialised farms are not pristine, beautiful oases either. (NC hog farming?)

The point this article brings up is that human activity is bringing us more into contact on a large scale with previously isolated "wild" animals and their diseases. The needs of the 7+ billion people on this planet are increasing. The way to feed those predicted 9 billion people by 2050 is to transition to more vegetables and not so much meat. It's less resource intensive and the yield per area is much higher.