The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

[obvert]

The opening salvo of the 7th scares the crap out of me!! Suddenly, sweeps appear from two hexes to the NW of Sapporo!!! [:(][X(][:-][X(]

This is an unprecedentedly HUGE cooperating sweep, and the action is long and devastating.

Th Allied CVs move forward and engage ...

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Morning Air attack on Sapporo , at 120,51

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 30 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 40
J2M5 Jack x 22
N1K1-J George x 4
N1K2-J George x 94
N1K5-J George x 5
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 43
Ki-84b Frank x 24
Ki-100-I Tony x 96
Ki-102b Randy x 6

Allied aircraft
F4U-1A Corsair x 76
F4U-1D Corsair x 117

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M8 Zero: 1 destroyed
J2M5 Jack: 1 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 4 destroyed
N1K5-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 2 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 5 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 3 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
41 x F4U-1D Corsair sweeping at 20000 feet
25 x F4U-1A Corsair sweeping at 20000 feet
18 x F4U-1D Corsair sweeping at 20000 feet
18 x F4U-1D Corsair sweeping at 20000 feet
17 x F4U-1D Corsair sweeping at 20000 feet

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[obvert]

A massively escorted strike comes in almost immediately. My fear is for the IJN at Sapporo, the six CA, one CL and three DDs remaining to guard the base.

Only 14 of the 75+ strike planes get through, and the IJN flak disturbs the rest enough to make them miss. Whew!!

But I knew this was not the end.
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Morning Air attack on TF, near Sapporo at 120,51

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 35 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 39
J2M5 Jack x 20
N1K1-J George x 4
N1K2-J George x 85
N1K5-J George x 4
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 25
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 37
Ki-84b Frank x 21
Ki-100-I Tony x 81
Ki-102b Randy x 6

Allied aircraft
Avenger II x 24
Hellcat I x 12
Hellcat F.II x 18
Seafire IIC x 25
F6F-3 Hellcat x 409
F6F-5 Hellcat x 136
SB2C-3 Helldiver x 20
TBM-3 Avenger x 33

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Avenger II: 16 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 8 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 2 destroyed
SB2C-3 Helldiver: 6 destroyed, 1 damaged
SB2C-3 Helldiver: 1 destroyed by flak
TBM-3 Avenger: 15 destroyed, 3 damaged

Japanese Ships
CA Takao
CMc Kurokami
CA Atago
SC CHa-33
SC CHa-29

Aircraft Attacking:
2 x Avenger II bombing from 5000 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 500 lb SAP Bomb
4 x TBM-3 Avenger bombing from 5000 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 500 lb GP Bomb
2 x SB2C-3 Helldiver releasing from 4000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb, 2 x 250 lb SAP Bomb
6 x TBM-3 Avenger launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 22in Mk 13 Torpedo

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[obvert]

More sweeps come and do incredible damage. This is not looking good for the later naval strikes.

LBA strikes then begin to target the airfields, and fortunately they are not well coordinated. The CAP again gets through to the bombers without completely depleting the CAP.
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Afternoon Air attack on Sapporo , at 120,51

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 61 NM, estimated altitude 41,300 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 49
J2M5 Jack x 17
N1K1-J George x 6
N1K2-J George x 79
N1K5-J George x 5
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 19
Ki-84b Frank x 18
Ki-100-I Tony x 61

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 17

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M8 Zero: 1 destroyed
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed
N1K5-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 3 destroyed

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Afternoon Air attack on Sapporo , at 120,51

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 64 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 21 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 44
J2M5 Jack x 14
N1K1-J George x 5
N1K2-J George x 72
N1K5-J George x 3
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 18
Ki-84b Frank x 14
Ki-100-I Tony x 48

Allied aircraft
F6F-5 Hellcat x 56
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M8 Zero: 1 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 5 damaged
P1Y2 Frances: 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-45 KAId Nick: 1 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-5 Hellcat: 5 destroyed
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 2 destroyed, 5 damaged

Airbase hits 2
Runway hits 3

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x PB4Y-1 Liberator bombing from 15000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
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[obvert]

After numerous 4E strikes, the afternoon phase sees another huge naval strike, but again with only a comparatively small number of strike planes relative to escorts. The escorts sweep ahead, but the CAP manages to hold, and only a few hits to some small minelayers are
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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Sapporo at 120,51

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 36 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 7
J2M5 Jack x 2
N1K2-J George x 11
N1K5-J George x 1
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 24
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 4
Ki-84b Frank x 2
Ki-100-I Tony x 5

Allied aircraft
Avenger II x 2
Hellcat I x 12
Hellcat F.II x 18
Seafire IIC x 25
F4U-1A Corsair x 44
F4U-1D Corsair x 17
F6F-3 Hellcat x 383
F6F-5 Hellcat x 127
TBM-1C Avenger x 17
TBM-3 Avenger x 20

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M8 Zero: 1 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 2 destroyed
N1K5-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hellcat I: 1 destroyed
Seafire IIC: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 2 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
TBM-1C Avenger: 1 destroyed, 8 damaged
TBM-1C Avenger: 1 destroyed by flak
TBM-3 Avenger: 3 destroyed, 7 damaged

Japanese Ships
CA Nachi
CL Yura
CA Atago
CA Kumano
CA Takao
CA Mikuma
CA Aoba

Aircraft Attacking:
2 x Avenger II launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Mk XII Torpedo
13 x TBM-3 Avenger launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 22in Mk 13 Torpedo
15 x TBM-1C Avenger launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 22in Mk 13 Torpedo
18 x F6F-3 Hellcat sweeping at 13000 feet
13 x F6F-3 Hellcat sweeping at 8000 feet
10 x F6F-3 Hellcat sweeping at 8000 feet
7 x Hellcat I sweeping at 12000 feet
5 x Seafire IIC sweeping at 6000 feet
14 x Hellcat F.II sweeping at 8000 feet
9 x F6F-5 Hellcat sweeping at 12000 feet

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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Sapporo at 120,51

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 28 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 1
N1K2-J George x 4
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 7
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 2
Ki-84b Frank x 1
Ki-100-I Tony x 1

Allied aircraft
P-38L Lightning x 42
SBD-5 Dauntless x 9
TBM-1C Avenger x 11

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38L Lightning: 1 destroyed
SBD-5 Dauntless: 1 destroyed
TBM-1C Avenger: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
CMc Katoku, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
CMc Ento
CMc Kurokami, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CMc Ashizaki

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x SBD-5 Dauntless releasing from 4000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb
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[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]Jan 7, 1945[/font]

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The remaining CAs minus the repairing Myoko are stationed protecting Sapporo airfield. They are subject to a massively escorted strike from the Allied CVs, but the number of actual bombers is low, and the IJN gets very, very lucky here. The Allies send major sweeps, bombing runs, naval strikes, and everything seems to break our way. It's all ordered in a way that the CAP can handle, and they keep the Allies at bay for the most part. Some strikes do hit the airfield, and 20+ planes are torched, but the CAs make it through without a scratch, and now I'm left with a massive dilemma! [X(]

What do I do against the entire Allied fleet? Where are they going? Is this an invasion? A primitive strike to clear the remaining IJN threats? A combined strike to begin reducing Sapporo? What next?

This turn takes a lot of time and consideration. I don't know what to do, still. Could I extricate the CAs? Well, could I even get by the Allied fleet, and if I do, then the airfield is open to any bombardment. Should I stay and battle it out? Well, then I'll see 100 Fletchers and Sumners, and probably the Iowas, and lose the CAs plus the fields. Should I keep up CAP, or disperse it all to other bases and LR CAP? Should I set naval strikes and send in the KB? Well, maybe thats the entire goal of this op and the CVs will move forward to be sure to engage, and then I lose the KB.

There is no right choice here. I have to go with my gut and imagine being in the Allied shoes.
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 7, 1945
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Ground combat at Wakkanai (122,48)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 19799 troops, 420 guns, 868 vehicles, Assault Value = 2004

Defending force 26105 troops, 182 guns, 4 vehicles, Assault Value = 158

Allied adjusted assault: 839

Japanese adjusted defense: 87

Allied assault odds: 9 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), preparation(-), fatigue(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1379 casualties reported
Squads: 112 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 6 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 22 (13 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
99 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 15 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 9 (1 destroyed, 8 disabled)

Assaulting units:
XIV Corps Combat Engineer Regiment
93rd Infantry Division
1st Australian Division
3rd Marine Division
192nd Tank Battalion
98th Infantry Division
819th Towed Tank Destroyer Battalion
2/6th Armoured Regiment
131st Combat Engineer Regiment
7th Infantry Division
762nd Tank Battalion
110th Combat Engineer Battalion
3rd Regiment
2/4th Armoured Regiment
11th Airborne Div /2
3rd NZ Bde /1
I US Corps
205th Field Artillery Battalion
265th Coastal Artillery Regiment
82nd Mortar Battalion
147th Field Artillery Regiment
160th USA Base Force
8th USN Naval Construction Battalion
166th USA Base Force
I Corps Artillery
Provisional GMC Grp
871st Engineer Aviation Battalion
29th USN Naval Const Rgt /3

Defending units:
Karafuto Mixed Brigade
72nd Division
89th Division
43rd Div /2
29th Field AF Construction Battalion
218th Naval Construction Battalion
5th Fleet
Soya Fortress
206th Naval Construction Battalion
23rd Air Flotilla
11th Ind.Mixed Regiment
51st Ind.Mixed Brigade
178th JAAF AF Bn

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The carnage is real. We lose a lot of good fighters, again, and although the Allies do as well, this doesn't bode well for tomorrow. Luckily I do have more I can rotate in. Those Corsair sweeps were much too effective though. I've got to get over them next time, so some CAP will be set high for tomorrow.

[obvert]

Here is a sample of my rollover! I have no idea how many TFs I can't see. What do I do? Is this something that might move on to land at Akita? Or farther?

Is this just a massive show of power that will wipe away the defences here?

What would you do? [:D]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: obvert

What would you do? [:D]

Bust out the tatami mat, rice paper caligraphy and wakizashi, buddy. You're going to need them. [:D]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: obvert

What would you do? [:D]

Bust out the tatami mat, rice paper caligraphy and wakizashi, buddy. You're going to need them. [:D]

[:D]

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert


What would you do? [:D]

Send as many two ship task forces into it as you can with anything that carries a torpedo. Set TF to direct (you could try safe but the routines might not let you), low. Have them return to a non obvious close port and CAP the bejesus out of it, let some CAP bleed as long as it doesn't bleed into the likely heavily swept bases.

Shoot for a night time fight.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert


What would you do? [:D]

Send as many two ship task forces into it as you can with anything that carries a torpedo. Set TF to direct (you could try safe but the routines might not let you), low. Have them return to a non obvious close port and CAP the bejesus out of it, let some CAP bleed as long as it doesn't bleed into the likely heavily swept bases.

Shoot for a night time fight.

Trouble is that's only cruisers, as the escorts are mostly gone from the last battles at Wakkanai I have just enough for the KB and one BB TF now.

You're the master of the small ship night engagements, but I just don't have anything small left!!

[mind_messing]

This is your last chance to sink high VP ships, I think.

If it's got a gun, send it out to sea. I mean everything. From minesweepers up to the cream of the IJN. Strip everything, escorts, ASW ships, PB's, the lot.

It's a two step process - the naval side of it will disrupt the Allied fleet with reactions, retreats, and all sorts of hijinks. With luck, you might get some good warships in at the CV's, but even if the CV's bump in to semi-useless PB's with a 8cm popgun, it's disruption and they tend to RTB afterwards.

Daylight brings the air strikes, on what will hopefully be a disrupted and dispersed Allied fleet. Open up the CAP ranges so that you get CAP bleeding in from Japan, and then you can try to bleed down his CV squadrons as well.

It's a long shot, but it makes good viewing from the sidelines.

[Bif1961]

It looks like his death star took about 10% losses in aircraft maybe a few more days like this and the KB might counter attack his DS. You have to deal with it sooner or later and always better sooner than later for the Japanese.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Bif1961

It looks like his death star took about 10% losses in aircraft maybe a few more days like this and the KB might counter attack his DS. You have to deal with it sooner or later and always better sooner than later for the Japanese.

I'm not sure Dan is using his replenishment carriers as I advocate, but if he is the 10% loss would have been made up at the end of the turn without the DS having to return to port to make it happen.

Assuming the DS air arm has suffered attrition is fraught with potential peril.


IIRC I have 9 CVEs with dedicated replenishment squadrons. Each carries a 28 plane fighter squadron and a 28 plane DB or TBF squadron.


If the replenishment TF is at sea that means the DS can replace losses of 252 fighters before their actaul strength is attrited.

If the replenishment TF can supply replacements to the DS while sitting in a port hex the losses that can be covered expands to the amount in the pool and the rate at which they can be dispersed as the replenishment squadrons pull replacements from the pool in teh same turn they deliver replacements to the combat squadrons.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert



Trouble is that's only cruisers, as the escorts are mostly gone from the last battles at Wakkanai I have just enough for the KB and one BB TF now.

I thought that might be the case, ...

Time is on your side, so I would caution about all out attack which most likely would be a victory point gift to the Allies. Plus you need credible forces to slow down his VP generation.

IF the Allies gain control of the air, they can harvest 60,000 strategic VPs thru bombing in three months. In fact it is an argument that there is more points from bombing than capture. Can Wakk go to size 9?

However, Allies always invade...look to the weakly held.


PS: Beware coordinated deep (greater than 8 hexes) sweeps from deathstar along with B29 raids, especially if your shipping is concentrated in port somewhere.

[obvert]

Well, the turn is away. It's up to Dan now. I went conservative, but didn't completely sit on my heels either. The KB is out of port, but keeping it's distance. The cruisers are in two TFs and will protect Sapporo with about 20 other small ship TFs and midgets subs and MTBs. More mines are being laid.

The airfields are evacuated. I've used nearby fields to bleed and LR CAP, but haven't moved in anything that wasn't already local. Don't want to get caught with my pants down elsewhere either.

My biggest fear right now is the Allies moving on and invading one or both of the vulnerable islands to the North of Honshu, Sadogashima and Okinoshima. I've got defences on each, but nothing to hold back a serious Allied effort.

Honshu proper is well enough defended. I've got reserves in strat mode ready to fill in as well, but Dan is wiley.

My hope is that his wiliness gets the better of him and he does move on, but tries for something like Manchuria. There I can match what the Allies bring.

We'll see.

[Lowpe]

Have you thought about using the 83 as super high CAP? I wonder how that would work out...Use Frank and George to sweep and catch some bleeding CAP.

The other thought would be to convert some to Kamikaze, fly them super high on naval strike, escorted by said twin engine devils. I actually don't think this would work, but you might actually shoot down a lot of his CAP that way.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

This is your last chance to sink high VP ships, I think.

If it's got a gun, send it out to sea. I mean everything. From minesweepers up to the cream of the IJN. Strip everything, escorts, ASW ships, PB's, the lot.

It's a two step process - the naval side of it will disrupt the Allied fleet with reactions, retreats, and all sorts of hijinks. With luck, you might get some good warships in at the CV's, but even if the CV's bump in to semi-useless PB's with a 8cm popgun, it's disruption and they tend to RTB afterwards.

Daylight brings the air strikes, on what will hopefully be a disrupted and dispersed Allied fleet. Open up the CAP ranges so that you get CAP bleeding in from Japan, and then you can try to bleed down his CV squadrons as well.

It's a long shot, but it makes good viewing from the sidelines.

I wouldn't advocate this until kamikazes have been activated. Adding a couple thousand of them into a similar mix-up with naval ships would be a lot more effective than spending everything on a last ditch naval assault alone.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Have you thought about using the 83 as super high CAP? I wonder how that would work out...Use Frank and George to sweep and catch some bleeding CAP.

The other thought would be to convert some to Kamikaze, fly them super high on naval strike, escorted by said twin engine devils. I actually don't think this would work, but you might actually shoot down a lot of his CAP that way.

I would love to try this, but alas, no kamis yet!!

Wakkanai is out of range! [:(]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

This is your last chance to sink high VP ships, I think.

If it's got a gun, send it out to sea. I mean everything. From minesweepers up to the cream of the IJN. Strip everything, escorts, ASW ships, PB's, the lot.

It's a two step process - the naval side of it will disrupt the Allied fleet with reactions, retreats, and all sorts of hijinks. With luck, you might get some good warships in at the CV's, but even if the CV's bump in to semi-useless PB's with a 8cm popgun, it's disruption and they tend to RTB afterwards.

Daylight brings the air strikes, on what will hopefully be a disrupted and dispersed Allied fleet. Open up the CAP ranges so that you get CAP bleeding in from Japan, and then you can try to bleed down his CV squadrons as well.

It's a long shot, but it makes good viewing from the sidelines.

I wouldn't advocate this until kamikazes have been activated. Adding a couple thousand of them into a similar mix-up with naval ships would be a lot more effective than spending everything on a last ditch naval assault alone.

I love this approach from mind messing, butI just don't have the resources in any one place to do it. I've had to disperse and hide some assets, and just don't have as many to play with now either.

It could still happen one day but I agree, with kamis it would be a more messy affair, and possibly more fruitful

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert


It could still happen one day but I agree, with kamis it would be a more messy affair, and possibly more fruitful

For him, with all those free VPs!