Taming the Bear - Rader (J) vs. jzanes (A). A jzanes-free zone.

[desicat]

ORIGINAL: desicat

Anything other than hitting the Home Islands in 44-45 by the Allies is a waste of effort. Any Japanese forces in Burma, India, the PI, Oz, and Cent Pac are just sitting in self guarding POW camps. If the KB is preserved past late 43 it has outlived it effective combat usefulness and can no longer survive even a favorable CV battle.

The Japanese knew this at Leyte Gulf, that is why their CV's were thrown away as a diversion for the surface battle fleet....the Japanese knew the only way to stop the Allies was by making the price to take the HI's too high to pay in terms of casualties.

An Allied player, no matter how much ground they have lost, can adopt your plan to hit the Kuriles or Bonine Islands in 44 and begin the conquest of Japan from there.

The game is limited without a political element. Maybe the Allied player should have to designate timelines to reclaim say 5 certain important cities or geographic points from say a predetermined pool of 10 prior to beginning the game, this would put the rest of the map back in play and force some time pressure on the Allied player. This would be easy to do before an email match, the dates and points for capture could be mutually established in house rules....interesting to contemplate.

Rader if only you had heeded my advice concerning the Kuriles in your game with GJ. I note that he was commenting here and he must have been sweating a bit when he read my post. I had no idea what he was planning but it validates my point.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: rader

In fact, if the Americans based several hundred 4E bombers in Russian territory (along with advanced fighters), that might have been enough to push them into declaring war on the west to seize the planes (or more likely, just seize them without war and see what happens). The US never would have permitted B-29s in Russian territory. The 3 that actually did land there because of mechanical problems were never returned. One was taken apart piece by piece to reverse engineer a line of Russian bombers (Tu-4); see:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-4

I would not agree with your line of thinking. At the time Stalin was begging for US assistance in the form of lend lease, and the US operated I know of 2 squadrons of bombers out of Russia to hit targets in Poland.

You have this very ahistorical scenario where as the Japaneese build up a war machine that far outclasses Hitler with no repose ... I am thinking whatever it would take to defeat Japan would be agreed to ... including the "secret" basing of B-29's. As it is .. in RF the LYB's blew it at Midway and this was not needed ...the only arguement was PI or Formosa and MacArthur wins the debate ...

[rader]

Quiet, this is an open channel [:D]

Yes, now both games have gone depressing. Actually, they are both a lot of fun. I still very much think that ground bombing in the clear is borked, and I don't expect the empire to last until xmas, but I've reached stage 5 of grief: acceptance.
I think with Greyjoy, I am still at stage 3: Bargaining. [:'(]

1.Denial
2.Anger
3.Bargaining
4.Depression
5.Acceptance

ORIGINAL: desicat

ORIGINAL: desicat

Anything other than hitting the Home Islands in 44-45 by the Allies is a waste of effort. Any Japanese forces in Burma, India, the PI, Oz, and Cent Pac are just sitting in self guarding POW camps. If the KB is preserved past late 43 it has outlived it effective combat usefulness and can no longer survive even a favorable CV battle.

The Japanese knew this at Leyte Gulf, that is why their CV's were thrown away as a diversion for the surface battle fleet....the Japanese knew the only way to stop the Allies was by making the price to take the HI's too high to pay in terms of casualties.

An Allied player, no matter how much ground they have lost, can adopt your plan to hit the Kuriles or Bonine Islands in 44 and begin the conquest of Japan from there.

The game is limited without a political element. Maybe the Allied player should have to designate timelines to reclaim say 5 certain important cities or geographic points from say a predetermined pool of 10 prior to beginning the game, this would put the rest of the map back in play and force some time pressure on the Allied player. This would be easy to do before an email match, the dates and points for capture could be mutually established in house rules....interesting to contemplate.

Rader if only you had heeded my advice concerning the Kuriles in your game with GJ. I note that he was commenting here and he must have been sweating a bit when he read my post. I had no idea what he was planning but it validates my point.

[PaxMondo]

rader,
 
having been playing Downfall this past many months, I wouldn't give up hope.  Well, at least all hope.  Not sure where your economy is and in particular your HI stocks.  Take stock, cut back, read Nemo's AAR on his Armegeddon scenario.  Much applies to the late GC.  He can only do so much with his 4E's, even if he is using Russia.  Winning takes amphib op's and those are susceptible to kami's if you are ready for him.
 
I agree with you, US never based aircraft in SOV territory to attack IJ.  I note already most of the newly started AAR's are  including no allied air forces in the Russia upon activation.  Clearly the community here has already decided this issue.  For me, it's a non-starter.
 

[obvert]

Glad to hear it's still fun. Just being in the beginning of a GC game as Japan I look at some of these late AARs and wonder how I would do psychologically watching every turn filled with bombing and destruction of my forces.

It would be great to hear any insights you have on how to prepare for the late game base on these experiences.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: rader

Quiet, this is an open channel [:D]

Yes, now both games have gone depressing. Actually, they are both a lot of fun. I still very much think that ground bombing in the clear is borked, and I don't expect the empire to last until xmas, but I've reached stage 5 of grief: acceptance.
I think with Greyjoy, I am still at stage 3: Bargaining. [:'(]

[:D][:D]
You know how much pain you have inflicted me in the last 30 months?!!? I have been in "depression" mode for ages!!!

As PzB would say.... PAYBACK![:'(]

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo


I agree with you, US never based aircraft in SOV territory to attack IJ.  I note already most of the newly started AAR's are  including no allied air forces in the Russia upon activation.  Clearly the community here has already decided this issue.  For me, it's a non-starter.

So would invading Oz be a non-starter for the IJ? [;)] I mean we are talking ahistorical right? The Allies have no ability to construct up a "Red Ball express" across the deserts of Oz, or build up roads as was done historically in Europe or for a matter of fact North Africa ..but I do not see any of the JFB's seeing that as a problem...."Hey Oz is borked and so is the land combat model so I will not take advantage of that .." nope .. I never hear that .....[8D]

Here Rader attacked Russia! With Hitler breathing down on Lenngrad, Moscow and Stalingrad I am thinking that Big Bear pride would concide to doing anything possible to stop the Axis scurge ..

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

I agree with you, US never based aircraft in SOV territory to attack IJ.  I note already most of the newly started AAR's are  including no allied air forces in the Russia upon activation.  Clearly the community here has already decided this issue.  For me, it's a non-starter.

So would invading Oz be a non-starter for the IJ? [;)] I mean we are talking ahistorical right? The Allies have no ability to construct up a "Red Ball express" across the deserts of Oz, or build up roads as was done historically in Europe or for a matter of fact North Africa ..but I do not see any of the JFB's seeing that as a problem...."Hey Oz is borked and so is the land combat model so I will not take advantage of that .." nope .. I never hear that .....[8D]

Here Rader attacked Russia! With Hitler breathing down on Lenngrad, Moscow and Stalingrad I am thinking that Big Bear pride would concide to doing anything possible to stop the Axis scurge ..

Yup!

[obvert]

Except that by this point in the war the Russians would be in Berlin drinking champagne and hoping to get sentry duty in Prague instead of being sent to the far eastern front to face what is left of the Japanese. Stalin might have agreed to something in '43, but in '45 that 'agreement' might play out a little differently. There is no way the potentially thousands of US servicemen necessary to run several hundred B-29s would be allowed in Soviet territory in this stage of the war for a long length of time. Even the European example of this (Operation Frantic) was difficult and not very useful, only operational for 3-4 months during late '44.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]In February 1944, the USAAF received access to six air bases in Ukraine, but it turned out only three were set up for the effort. In haste, the United States Strategic Air Forces in Europe established a headquarters detachment at Poltava Airfield, near Kiev in the Soviet Union in late April, 1944. Poltava was designated as USAAF Station 559 for security purposes and was referred to as Station 559 in all messages and written correspondence. Poltava was one of three Ukraine installations operated by Headquarters, Eastern Command USSAF. The others were Piryatin Airfield (AAF-560) and Mirgorod Airfield (AAF-561). Poltava and Mirgorod were to be used for heavy bombers (B-24 Liberators, B-17 Flying Fortresses), while Piryatin would be used for long-range escort fighters (P-51 Mustangs, P-38 Lightnings).[5]

The bases were farther from the eastern front than the USAAF liked, and they were also in a poor state of repair. All this could be chalked up to the strains of war, as everything in the regions the Germans had retreated from was in a poor state of repair, if it hadn't been totally demolished. However, the American officers trying to direct the effort found themselves dealing with an unfriendly and suspicious Soviet bureaucracy that raised every obstacle. Allies or not, the Americans were foreigners, and Stalin did not like having foreigners around at all. Winston Churchill had not been very enthusiastic about Frantic, believing that it was placing a lot more trust on Stalin than was wise, and events were bearing him out.[5][/font]

[Kereguelen]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Except that by this point in the war the Russians would be in Berlin drinking champagne and hoping to get sentry duty in Prague instead of being sent to the far eastern front to face what is left of the Japanese. Stalin might have agreed to something in '43, but in '45 that 'agreement' might play out a little differently. There is no way the potentially thousands of US servicemen necessary to run several hundred B-29s would be allowed in Soviet territory in this stage of the war for a long length of time. Even the European example of this (Operation Frantic) was difficult and not very useful, only operational for 3-4 months during late '44.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]In February 1944, the USAAF received access to six air bases in Ukraine, but it turned out only three were set up for the effort. In haste, the United States Strategic Air Forces in Europe established a headquarters detachment at Poltava Airfield, near Kiev in the Soviet Union in late April, 1944. Poltava was designated as USAAF Station 559 for security purposes and was referred to as Station 559 in all messages and written correspondence. Poltava was one of three Ukraine installations operated by Headquarters, Eastern Command USSAF. The others were Piryatin Airfield (AAF-560) and Mirgorod Airfield (AAF-561). Poltava and Mirgorod were to be used for heavy bombers (B-24 Liberators, B-17 Flying Fortresses), while Piryatin would be used for long-range escort fighters (P-51 Mustangs, P-38 Lightnings).[5]

The bases were farther from the eastern front than the USAAF liked, and they were also in a poor state of repair. All this could be chalked up to the strains of war, as everything in the regions the Germans had retreated from was in a poor state of repair, if it hadn't been totally demolished. However, the American officers trying to direct the effort found themselves dealing with an unfriendly and suspicious Soviet bureaucracy that raised every obstacle. Allies or not, the Americans were foreigners, and Stalin did not like having foreigners around at all. Winston Churchill had not been very enthusiastic about Frantic, believing that it was placing a lot more trust on Stalin than was wise, and events were bearing him out.[5][/font]

There was no real benefit for the SU to allow the deployment of Allied forces on their own soil in 1944.

But when under pressure, Stalin did not hesitate to welcome the presence of Allied forces within Russia as he did in 1941, when No.151 Fighter Wing RAF was send to Murmansk (Sept - Oct 1941) and in 1942, when three RAF Bomber Command squadrons were based at Murmansk.

[PaxMondo]

Further, the allies in 44/45 would have been more than hesitant because by then they were very careful with their new technology ... ie Norden and the B-29.
 
You can make a case either way.  However, look at the recent new AAR's and the HR's.   Most have this proscribed.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo


I agree with you, US never based aircraft in SOV territory to attack IJ.  I note already most of the newly started AAR's are  including no allied air forces in the Russia upon activation.  Clearly the community here has already decided this issue.  For me, it's a non-starter.

So would invading Oz be a non-starter for the IJ? [;)] I mean we are talking ahistorical right? The Allies have no ability to construct up a "Red Ball express" across the deserts of Oz, or build up roads as was done historically in Europe or for a matter of fact North Africa ..but I do not see any of the JFB's seeing that as a problem...."Hey Oz is borked and so is the land combat model so I will not take advantage of that .." nope .. I never hear that .....[8D]

Settle down. Not at all the same. One is capability, the other is political composition.

Whether IJ take all of China or invades OZ or India is all about capability. IJ was clearly beligerent and if they had thought they could, they would have.

Basing B-29's in SOV has nothing to do with capability, but everything to do with the political climate. The capability was there. Just as moving all of the Atlantic Fleet to the Pacific or keeping the Asian Fleet in the Pacific rather than bringing it home or not sending B-17's to the Pacific until '45 or .... hopefully you see the point.

When politics are involved, you have to look at both sides carefully and assess the drivers as to why they decided what they did and how strong were those. Roosevelt was firmly committed to the Europe first and it showed in all of his decisions. He also disliked Stalin personally, did not trust him and was very concerned about the post-war era with them.

Rader invading SOV is not a solid defense. Look deeper. If IJ had invaded SOV, then troops that were pulled away to Europe would have had to stay. Does Operation BLAU succeed? Either way, it would have meant the allies would have had to invest even MORE in Europe. That increased investment would have meant what in the Pacific? What units do not show up? How much later does VE occur? repercussions ...

and yes I pose a lot of questions without answers as it is all speculation. My point being this is far from a simple scenario. However, if the AAR's are having HR's against allied forces in the SOV, the community opinion has spoken.

EDIT: BTW, if you as an allied player feel like you are fighting the war with one hand tied behind you back, then the game is spot on. Nimitz felt that way the entire war.

[rader]

For the first Saturday in about 6 months, it is a pretty lazy day and I have a hangover. I thought I would give some updates while waiting for turns (feel free to poke either Jzanes or Greyjoy to send one).

We are now in early July 1945. Only 1 month until the first A-bomb (actually, what is the story with a-bombs in this game anyway - anyone ever use one?).

Japan is still dying a slow death, but we are trying to rally all the empire's remaining forces for a final stand in the home islands. Let's drain some blood from these damn imperialists. Unfortuntely, it will probably cost us about 5 times as much blood. Still, in terms of victory points, a 5:1 ratio is actually not a bad exchange...

With the loss of the last DEI oil fields through strat bombing and blockade (mostly the former - a single big 4E raid is usually enough to eliminate a base's entire oil production - yes strat bombing is also borked [:'(]), there isn't much point in trying to hold anything south of Formosa. We are evacuating all reminaing forces from the DEI to Japan and the Ryukus. Sumatra, Java, and Malaya have already been evacuated as much as possible considering the allied efforst there. All these areas are collapsing.

All forces from the Burma army, save for a determined reargaurd near Bangkok, are embarking in French indochina, covered by the IJN.

The Southern Philippines can't really be evac'ed under the nose of the allied forces, so the Philippine forces will fight a delaying action to try to slow the allies.

[rader]

With the breakthough of the Russian forces, all of China and most of Machuria/Korea are completely untennable, and Japanese forces are being harried as they retreat through Manchuria with the Russians in hot pursuit. I purchased what I could from the China army with PPs, and these are retreating with the Kwangtung army into Southern Manchuria and Northern Korea. The rest of the China army is going to make final stands at Peking/Tientsin and Shanghai.

[witpqs]

You might talk with your opponent, but I feel like it's common sense that a (truly) retreating army doesn't need to pay PP. YMMV

[PaxMondo]

Good point. Except for indigenous troops like Mongol Garrison Army and NCPC Army, I would agree.  Those troops would want to stay in the homeland ... you could get them to retreat, but I think PP's for those would be appropriate.  But the 11th, 13th, 28th, etc armies ... those shouldn't need PP's to withdraw into Man/Kor.  Just my opinion.
 
OF course you don't want to give up Shanghai area or Formosa without a fight ... too close to the HI ... 

[rader]

Well, Japan actually has a lot of PPs late game so I haven't really found that a problem.

I'm keeping all those Chinese garrison troops in China to die. Agree that those collaborators would probably remain in China and it would be gamey to pull them out. What they would probably do is jetison their uniforms and arms and try to blend back into the countryside.

I just hope he can't use the Chinese armies in Machuria/Korea...

[PaxMondo]

CHI armies should require PP's to advance, correct?  Just like if you want to use Kwangtung army in CHI  ...  I would think ...

[rader]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

CHI armies should require PP's to advance, correct?  Just like if you want to use Kwangtung army in CHI  ...  I would think ...

Yes, I think so unless they are unrestricted command. I htink a few are, but not too many.

[rader]

July, 1945.

Behold the amazing shrinking Japanese "empire"!