Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[bradfordkay]

I wouldn't count on the idea that Steve has no idea that Dan has carriers in the Aleutians (no, I am not speaking from any conversations with him). Y'all should remember that the Lexington struck at Steve's Replenishment TF and then disappeared. There were only two directions it could go from there undetected: north or east. Since it did not run into the KB on it's way north, we have to assume that the KB was moving SW from the vicinity of Laysan Island towards Kwajalein and thus would likely have spotted the Lex had she headed east. Thus, in Steve's position I would have guessed that she went north.

Yes, there has been plenty of time for the Lexington to then swing back SE to Pearl or the west coast. But if I were conducting an invasion of Amchitka under these circumstances, I would be at least mentally prepared for the possibility that the Lexington is nearby...

[Smeulders]

He certainly shouldn't count on that idea, seeing as Saratago was in fact spotted earlier. Of course, with FOW Steve can't be sure about such a report, but he's certainly been alerted to the possibility of carriers up North.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/20/41

NoPac: Yikes, a Mavis patrol from Amchitka "snooped" Saratoga way up on the "Bering Sea" lettering! I'm assuming that was a solid report, so I'll have to be extra careful.

[Galahad78]

Just discovered that you started another game, good luck!!

Suscribed, of course [:D]

[Canoerebel]

12/23/41

Eastern DEI: The Allies have four heavy cruisers here now: Exeter at Soerabaja; Louisville, Australia, and Canberra at Lautem. Louisville and Australia are anchoring a TF that will try a raid at Ternate.

Western DEI: The Mini-KB is hanging out east of Mersing, where a major Japanese landing is underway. Carriers confirmed are CVLs Zuiho and Ryujo and CVE Taiyo. I think the others are present too. Scattered strikes by Allied LBA from Singapore the past two days have been ineffective. Watching the combat replay, I saw Kates from this TF finish off two of the three xAKL carrying 33 AV (part of an Indian brigade) from Singapore to Palembang....but upon opening the file made the happy discovery that the ships had already unloaded. The AV at Palembang is up to 470. I think I can bump it up to about 525-575 by pulling the remnants of Dutch units scattered about. The transports carrying an Indian brigade are south of Sabang and heading for a port south of Palembang. If this unit makes it to Palembang in time, the AV should end up somewhere around 600 to 650 (that's about the same number I see in the Adm Spruance vs. Vettim game). Singapore's AV will probably be somewhere around 900 when the siege begins.

NoPac: The first troop ships should arrive at Adak Island day after tomorrow. The big amphibious TF carrying a USA RCT and battalion bound for Amchitka departed Seattle yesterday. D-Day is probably a week away. The Allied carriers are near Kodiak at the moment.

West Coast: Enterprise arrived at Los Angeles the same day a Glen-equipped sub began reconnaissance. Wow, that's unfortunate timing! Ent will be in the yards for less than four weeks. The chances of a KB raid aren't high, but I've moved about150 fighters to LA to provide cover.

CenPac: 2nd Marine Parachutes depart San Diego tonight bound for Midway.

SoPac: Enemy landings at Tulagi.

Comparing Apples to Oranges: I read the early pages of my game with Q-Ball today, comparing for the first time the progress here with that game. Hong Kong fell at the same time; Chez has taken Rabaul earlier; Q-Ball never moved into the Aluetians; but Q-Ball was already deep into the Eastern DEI (he held Ambon and had landed at Koepang at this point). Q-Ball took Palembang on 12/29/41, which isn't going to happen in this game (but neither is Steve going to have any trouble rolling right through a now empty Java).

[Bullwinkle58]

This is a question which may fall into that bucket labeled "Stupid", but I really don't know the answer. Perhaps you don't either, but readers who play the Japanese might.

Premise: Your opponent is going for Auto-vic, somewhere. Might matter where economy-wise, might not. I don't know.

Premise/JFB shibboleth: Palembang is necessary to run the Japanese economy.

Question: Is premise 2 valid if premise 1 is in play? If he has or gets Java and Borneo and northern Sumatra quickly and at low-cost, can he make his gears turn until 1/1/43 without Palembang? Was Nemo's urging, and quite compelling logic, concerning Fortress P. predicated on no auto-vic, and thus a long war of attrition?

[Canoerebel]

Great question, Bullwinkle. I don't know the answer, though from all the noise about Palembang's importance I would err on the side of assuming the IJ player needs it.

As for this particular game, I think if Steve were contemplating a "Palembang isn't necessary for auto-vic" strategy, he would have jumped all over Brunei, Miri, Tarakan, and Balikpan immediately. The Allies, however, still hold all of these bases.

I'm not yet sure if Steve will even contemplate auto-vic. My early impression/preliminary thinking is that he isn't as aggressive as Q-Ball, but it's still early. I think there might be six routes to auto victory: India, Oz, Russia (probably need other key areas), China (plus some other key areas); Hawaii (plus some other key areas); a cobbled-together conquest of vulnerable high-value bases like Noumea, Suva, Pago Pago, Ceylon, and Calcutta.

[Cribtop]

Depends on whether Steve plans on surrendering on 1/2/43 if he doesn't get auto-vic. Most JFBs hope for auto-vic but don't plan to abandon the game if they don't get it.

[Canoerebel]

That's true.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Depends on whether Steve plans on surrendering on 1/2/43 if he doesn't get auto-vic. Most JFBs hope for auto-vic but don't plan to abandon the game if they don't get it.

Yes, but, to continue the question, does his response vary from the norm if he gets there and sees the Fortress? Does he batter it, and perhaps recieve a burned-out husk in 2-3 months' time, or does he walk away and go hammer&tongs for the auto-vic?

Asked another way, does a Fortress P. strategy buy an auto-vic attempt where one was not in place previously?

[Canoerebel]

Interesting point.

I don't think Fortress Palembang would push a Japanese player to auto-vic. Look at Vettim's game against Admiral Spruance. They're playing three-day turns, which slows down the pace considerably. It's early February 1942, the Allies still hold Palembang with 600+ AV, but it seems that Vettim will be able to take it with perhaps two IJA divisions. The 600 Allied AV is very weak (mostly low experience Dutch troops). Even the marsh terrain (x3 combat modifier) doesn't seem enough to prevent a rather quick capitulation if Japan brings enough.

[dekwik]

Festung Palembang might be a dead end. Having all those allied units in one place makes "clean up" in Java etc easier and IJA units get released for mayhem elsewhere that bit sooner.

A series of postings in WITP (code may have changed in AE of course) by Uamaga suggest that there's a 33% chance of taking the base intact, and a 33% chance of cataclysmic damage (damage * 10). In the middle 33%, unit experience and engineer squads are important. The info might be complete rubbish (how does he know that?) but it seemed plausible.

[Canoerebel]

I think it ought to be fairly effective. Palembang is a stronger defensive position than Batavia or Soerabaja, so concentrating troops there makes sense. Also, it puts pressure on the Japanese player to address the situation once he realizes it's not going to be quick and easy. Of course, the downside is that he can roll through Java more quickly once he goes there.

But the bottom line is that the Allies can choose to make a strong stand somewhere in the DEI, and Palembang with it's defensive multipier and full supply probably makes the most sense.

[paullus99]

Very true - although a single point does make it easier for your opponent to concentrate, he first has to realize the problem exists for him to tackle. If he has to reposition his troops or even bring in reinforcements, those are troops that will be unavailable for the next group of attacks.

You are buying time with troops that would ordinarily be swept up anyway - this is a good move on your part to concentrate & make a more effective stand.

[bradfordkay]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Depends on whether Steve plans on surrendering on 1/2/43 if he doesn't get auto-vic. Most JFBs hope for auto-vic but don't plan to abandon the game if they don't get it.

Steve will not do this, I can promise. He's in it for the long haul. We've been playing against each other since 2007. He was gamely suffering the allied assault in late '44 in our CHS game when the pilot bug took out 1/3 of all out pilots and we decided that it was time to switch to AE instead.

[Kereguelen]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think it ought to be fairly effective. Palembang is a stronger defensive position than Batavia or Soerabaja, so concentrating troops there makes sense. Also, it puts pressure on the Japanese player to address the situation once he realizes it's not going to be quick and easy. Of course, the downside is that he can roll through Java more quickly once he goes there.

But the bottom line is that the Allies can choose to make a strong stand somewhere in the DEI, and Palembang with it's defensive multipier and full supply probably makes the most sense.

Well, IMHO the success of your Palembang strategy actually depends on how your opponent reacts to it. If he realizes in time that you have withdrawn your troops from most parts of the DEI/Malaya, this will speed up his conquest of this areas, especially when he grabs Java early. And the problem with Palembang is, that while the location itself offers many benefits for its defense (as already discussed in this thread) it may easily become just a big prisoner camp once the Japanese side takes Oosthaven (which is basically indefensible once your opponent hold Batavia) and makes sure that she has air superiority in this area (there are enough airfields in Malaya/Singapore and Java to isolate Palembang).

Anyway - wait and see! I'll certainly enjoy this AAR.

K

[Canoerebel]

12/24/41

Eastern DEI: The Australia/Louisville TF will hit whatever's at Ternate tonight. BB Yamashiro was sighted up at Peleliu today and a big convoy carring IJA's 21st Divison is approaching that port from the Philippine Sea, so Steve's probably attending to defense in the region. Nevertheless, I need to give it a crack.

Western DEI: The Mini-KB is probing deeply into hostile waters, approaching the island that separate Borneo from Sumatra. Allied LBA sortied ineffectively, but a sortie by carrier-based Kates got chewed up by Allied fighters (mainly the AVG) near Palembang. The loss of so many strike aircraft may persuade Steve to pull back a bit, but I've set all my LBA to naval strike. I also have a DD force probing north from Batavia, and a CL/DD force probing NW from Semereng. I'm leaving CA Exeter at Soerabaja and CA Canberra at Lautem temporarily. Palembang's AV increased to 486, so the "growth" is tapering off. Japanese paratroops took Sabang (that's not a good development). Mersing fell to an army that has alot of units but not alot of oomph (two regiments being the strongest units).

Palembang vs. Singapore: The Allies keep spending political points in dribs and drabs - the latest to purchase several of the P-40 squadrons at Luzon. I should be able to pay for one of the Aussie brigades at Singapore in less than a week, though I'm still debating whether to do so. In part, the debate depends upon how strong Brad is in Malaya. If he isn't bringing enough to vanquish Singapore in short order, I would want to stick there for awhile. The Indian brigade will probably come ashore at Benkoelen in four days or so and then has a march of probably less than a week to reach Palembang. So the Allied AV at Palembang should reach about 600 in roughly ten days.

SigInt: I'm most interested in that SigInt that 21st Division is aboard Marus (I got three separate reports) bound for Babeldoab. Where is this unit going? Java? Timor? Darwin?

NoPac: Rocky Mountain Battalion begins unloading at Adak Island tonight, with an infantry RCT due in port in one or two more days. CA Houston TF is providing protection.

West Coast: Ent damage down to 5/21. I want her out of port quickly. She and Yorktown are probably bound for SoPac as soon as possible.

SoPac: Tulagi fell. A Minneapolis-led TF will probe the area in a few days (it's first got to steam north from the Noumea region).

[Cribtop]

21st Div is a great unit to use to seize Ambon/Manado/Samarinda/Balikpapan/Kendari/Makassar. Of course, in Scenario two he has other units for this job, but that's my bet.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Interesting point.

I don't think Fortress Palembang would push a Japanese player to auto-vic. Look at Vettim's game against Admiral Spruance. They're playing three-day turns, which slows down the pace considerably. It's early February 1942, the Allies still hold Palembang with 600+ AV, but it seems that Vettim will be able to take it with perhaps two IJA divisions. The 600 Allied AV is very weak (mostly low experience Dutch troops). Even the marsh terrain (x3 combat modifier) doesn't seem enough to prevent a rather quick capitulation if Japan brings enough.

Nemo's AAR vs. 1EyedJacks offers a different view. Interesting reading in posts in the high 300s. Page 13 and 14ish.

[Nemo121]

Landing at Palembang itself is VERY difficult for Japan because only its light cruisers ( and other light escorts ) can accompany the landing ships. This means that if the Allies get 6 inch CD guns into Palembang they should be able to seriously chew up the Japanese invasion forces. Add to that the fact that Allied bombers can strike the unloading ships while under CAP of fighters at Palembang ( thus the fighters are much more effective than if escorting ) AND the fact that all you need to do is disrupt the landings so the Dutch etc can get a few days of free bombardments in ( which raises their experience from the mid-20s to mid-40s ) and combined with forts and the swamp terrain ( which gives a x 6 defensive bonus cumulatively if you get level 6 forts ) and I doubt that an equal number of IJA troops would be able to take Palembang.

No, it'd be much, much better for the Japanese to land at Oosthaven where they can bring CAs and BBs or at the base on western Sumatra.

Either of those landings will simply result in the dutch and reinforcements withdrawing onto Palembang, gathering there for a final defensive battle and in so doing destroying huge portions of the infrastructure there.


The acme of strategy is the art of providing your opponent the freedom of action to choose between multiple options, all of which doom them. I chose the Palembang Gambit because I recognised that in so doing ( combined with aggressive raiding elsewhere --- pretty much the template Canoerebel is using in this game ) it would allow me to create a situation in which the Japanese initiative was negated and in which any choice they made would result in the undoing of their industrial base ( which is, of course, the true target of most Allied actions in-game ).

Is the supply abstraction at Palembang unrealistic? Yes, a refinery like that wouldn't make 1,000 tons of general supplies per day BUT the same rules apply everywhere else. In the end within 3 months of game start I had some 250,000 tons of supplies on Sumatra so that shows that any defence was predicated on bringing supplies in, not on the supply generation. So, overall, I think the issue is a moot point as it is very much a swings and roundabouts situaiton.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

So, overall, I think the issue is a moot point as it is very much a swings and roundabouts situaiton.

My comments re your AAR and CR's current efforts were largely to point out the different scale of your Palembang efforts. You inserted a huge amount of men and materiel into the operation, including the possible loss of most of the RN, and the abandonment, more or less, of Singapore, same to be used as a key source of Sumatra forces. CR, to date and in his posts on his vision for his effort, is much more along the lines of a speedbump. A big speedbump, yes, but not really a "fortress", despite the terrain bonus and other advantages Palembang offers any player.

An Allied danger might be counting on the benefits of Fortress P. without actually building a Fortress P.