Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (A) vs. Q-Ball (J)

[Panjack]

February 4, 1941
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Despite my expectations, it appears the supposed KB didn't move further north to wreak havoc on my poor innocent boats bobbing in the Bay of Bengal. Severe storms blanket the region and I'm getting only poor sighting information from my search planes. But in the hex where the supposed KB was yesterday has been identified a small TF. But as nothing is reported further north and no carrier air attacks hit my ships in the BoB, I'm supposing the supposed KB has parked itself near Andaman Island for now.

Coming up from the South is what is identified as a 10-ship TF, including 8 DDs/CLs and only two xAPs. I'm supposing this is a sizable invasion TF moving toward Burma or India.

To my untutored mind, it looks like India is Q-Ball's next big target. Weeks ago, I believe, I got intel of a Japanese division preparing for Karachi. And now the intel I have in recent days includes:
6/2nd Division is planning for an attack on Chittagong.

Also according to my intel, this 2nd Division...which seems to be an elite unit...has been loading at Singapore in recent days. A number of units moved to Singapore after the fall of that city, units that might be moving to India along with the 2nd Division. The TF moving north on the map below likely isn't one that includes the 2nd division as I'm guessing the 2nd division couldn't have moved so far so fast. So it seems lots of stuff might be moving to Burma/India.

India is not at all prepared for an invasion. Luckily, though, the timing might be pretty good for me. If an Indian invasion had came after a couple of weeks more, I might have moved some of the Aussie LCUs soon to appear in Aden down to Oz. But now those Aussies will be getting used to the taste of cumin instead.

[Sangeli]

The paradrop in Akyab tells me the Japanese are planning a move in eastern India. At this point, however, there is not much you can do to stop an invasion there as most of it is 1x terrain. As most Allied players will tell you your priority should be in guarding the main bases of Karachi and Bombay so that you can safely bring in reinforcements. So really patience and willingness to retreat will be the key to limiting the impact of a Japanese invasion.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

The paradrop in Akyab tells me the Japanese are planning a move in eastern India. At this point, however, there is not much you can do to stop an invasion there as most of it is 1x terrain. As most Allied players will tell you your priority should be in guarding the main bases of Karachi and Bombay so that you can safely bring in reinforcements. So really patience and willingness to retreat will be the key to limiting the impact of a Japanese invasion.

I just wish Japan's move up toward India/northern Burma didn't happen for a couple of more weeks. I have so little in India. [X(]

[Panjack]

February 5 and 6, 1942
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INDIA: A Japanese carrier TF popped up off Ceylon on Feb 5 and remained there Feb 6. The direct harm (so far) has been relatively minor: sunk were 2 xAK, 6 xAKL, 3 AMc, 1 AM, and 1 PC. The indirect harm is that I’m not able to get to any SCTFs near the Japanese transport/invasion TFs moving up to Burma and/or India. I’ve lost track of most of these TFs as my search planes have been focusing on locating the carrier TF.

I just don’t have much in India. The 6th Aussie Division is moving to Calcutta but the 7th Aussie Division won’t even start to arrive in Aden for 5 days. I have other LCUs moving toward India but they won’t arrive in the immediate future.

My primary goal will be to continue building up Karachi and Bombay. But, more immediately and closer to the action, I’ll (1) build a defense for Calcutta and (2) protect the RR linking Ledo and the Imphal region with the rest of India.

Despite my desire to defend along the India-Burma border I don’t see how I can accomplish this given what Q-Ball seems to be bringing to attack Chittagong (at minimum an elite division already loaded on transports). So the units now fleeing Burma will try to get onto the Indian RR network and then into safer parts of that country. I’ll need to protect the RR lines allowing this for a number of weeks.

LCUs are at, or will soon be at the RR bases marked with squares below. The base marked with a red square seems pretty important as it is the single RR link between the Assam region and the rest of India.

The defense of Calcutta will include the city itself but also the two bases (in jungle) marked with red circles. I’ll try to defend those two bases to not only allow stuff to come in, but also to make it easier to exit Calcutta if things look bad. Of course, I’d like to keep Calcutta but it might turn out my main goal will be to defend that city mostly to delay possible attacks on Bombay and Karachi. But I know that if I stay too long in Calcutta, my LCUs there might get trapped in the city when they should really be defending the even-more-important Bombay and Karachi.

My bombing of the airbase (now at 52 damage) at Akyab, which was taken by paradrop a week or so ago, is about to end. Japanese units have taken Prome and I fear that enemy fighters will soon be placed on very LRCAP over Akyab. I’ll try a couple of days of “imprecise” nighttime bombing by B-17s to see if, by any miracle, they score a couple of hits on the airbase. I’m concerned that Akyab can be used both for 2E bombers and for transports delivering paradrops on bases located on RR lines.

[Sangeli]

Be careful of Japanese para drops behind Calcutta designed to cut off your retreat. Guarding the India/Burma border isn't going to do much as you surmised the most likely attack route is an amphibious landing.

If you are sending units from Karachi or Bombay to defend Calcutta its just going to make further Japanese attacks on those cities more likely to succeed even if they are delayed. Frankly I don't like your chances in defending the Calcutta-Chittagong in February 1942. If this were April or May it would be a different story but Indian units are not that strong. Be sure to keep that jungle hex NW of Calcutta open in order to facilitate your retreat that direction.

[Mike McCreery]

You cannot do everything in India. You have to choose what to defend and what to allow the Japanese to take. Some of that depends upon him but if he is going for AV then Bombay and Karachi are the real prizes.

Bombay can be defended by a well dug in reasonably well trained division. Maybe 2 of them.

[Panjack]

Thanks for the advice, Sangeli and Wargmr. I guess I'll make a show of defending Calcutta but then will, with great dignity, run way screaming to Bombay/Karachi.

[GreyJoy]

One thing to consider (which happened to me as the japs in my recent game with obvert) is that, if you force him to really fight for Calcutta, you may lose a division or two, but, with a real fight, the industry may be completely destroyed.
With a 100% destroyed Calcutta, the whole Japanese adventure in India will become worthless and expensive..
In this light, the loss of a couple of divisions may be a necessary price to be paid for a greater strategical goal

... not an easy choice

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

One thing to consider (which happened to me as the japs in my recent game with obvert) is that, if you force him to really fight for Calcutta, you may lose a division or two, but, with a real fight, the industry may be completely destroyed.
With a 100% destroyed Calcutta, the whole Japanese adventure in India will become worthless and expensive..
In this light, the loss of a couple of divisions may be a necessary price to be paid for a greater strategical goal

... not an easy choice

Well that is based off the assumption the Japanese will be unable to capitalize on the situation in ways you were unable to do against your opponent. And by that I mean to capture the REAL prizes of India which are Karachi and Bombay. The way I see it, losing divisions at Calcutta will have a significant effect on the ability to defend those two bases later on should it come to that. Also its worth noting that Calcutta (or any base) will see its heavy industry automatically cut in half every time it switches hands.

If you want to really destroy the industry put a bunch of engineers in the city as engineers will cause extra damage even before it is captured. So perhaps the most economical strategy is defend Calcutta against one Japanese attack with a bunch of engineers present and a decent fort then pull out before the Japanese can break down the fort an smash your defenders.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

One thing to consider (which happened to me as the japs in my recent game with obvert) is that, if you force him to really fight for Calcutta, you may lose a division or two, but, with a real fight, the industry may be completely destroyed.
With a 100% destroyed Calcutta, the whole Japanese adventure in India will become worthless and expensive..
In this light, the loss of a couple of divisions may be a necessary price to be paid for a greater strategical goal

... not an easy choice

Well that is based off the assumption the Japanese will be unable to capitalize on the situation in ways you were unable to do against your opponent. And by that I mean to capture the REAL prizes of India which are Karachi and Bombay. The way I see it, losing divisions at Calcutta will have a significant effect on the ability to defend those two bases later on should it come to that. Also its worth noting that Calcutta (or any base) will see its heavy industry automatically cut in half every time it switches hands.

If you want to really destroy the industry put a bunch of engineers in the city as engineers will cause extra damage even before it is captured. So perhaps the most economical strategy is defend Calcutta against one Japanese attack with a bunch of engineers present and a decent fort then pull out before the Japanese can break down the fort an smash your defenders.

One situation that differs from your advice - if one side totally abandons a base with industry before the other side moves in and attacks, the base will be taken by "occupation" and all industry will be intact. In one of my games I was the proud owner of several Japanese aircraft factories, [:)] but couldn't get them to actually produce any aircraft for me. [:(]
In fact, I had no way to tell but they may have been building aircraft into the IJA pools while I was trying to get them to produce for me! [8|]

[Panjack]

Thanks for your suggestions GreyJoy, Sangeli, and BBfanboy.

Main problem: my level of experience not better than some of the Indian Divisions I need to work with! Second problem: it is so early in the war I'm still awaiting the arrival in India (and Aden) of good units. I have one Aussie Division at Calcutta now (the 17th)...and about 1000 AV (but much of it weak AV)...and then the schedule of arrivals is:

5 days at Aden: Aussie 7th Div
20 days at Bangalore: Indian 20th Div
20 days 2 Indian Bdes at Lahore and Madras
50 days at Madras: Indian 26th Div
50 days at Karachi: British 70th Div

Only the first and last are now serious fighting units.

Other LCUs might be able to get to India too.

I guess the best plan is to set up a good defense of Calcutta, but plan to bail out at the first sign of "defortification." Forts are now at 3.5. An exit strategy will be a priority. I have 3 engineers units (including two good construction Bns) building up the city and I guess they can also tear it down if need be.

Of course, who know what Q-Ball has in mind!

[BBfanboy]

Don't despair over the weak Indian units. If you are getting supply to India they will begin filling out steadily and morale will go up accordingly.
Experience will grow a little while building things or resting/training, or even marching. Experience takes a big jump after first combat.

Keep your game plan and create a mobile force to stop his moves or to hit him in the pants while he is looking elsewhere.
You should get tanks to India ahead of the big IDs. The Japanese tanks can't stand up to allied tanks from the Stuart on up, and they have limited anti-armour capacity.
Tanks move fast to get where you need them and they can handle being bombed fairly well.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Don't despair over the weak Indian units. If you are getting supply to India they will begin filling out steadily and morale will go up accordingly.
Experience will grow a little while building things or resting/training, or even marching. Experience takes a big jump after first combat.

Keep your game plan and create a mobile force to stop his moves or to hit him in the pants while he is looking elsewhere.
You should get tanks to India ahead of the big IDs. The Japanese tanks can't stand up to allied tanks from the Stuart on up, and they have limited anti-armour capacity.
Tanks move fast to get where you need them and they can handle being bombed fairly well.

Luckily some time ago I sent two USMC tank battalions (one with M2s and the other with Stuarts) toward Cape Town. I hope they arrive in time to make a difference.

[Panjack]

Q-Ball says, yes, he'll be landing in India. His carriers are now 9 hexes from Calcutta but I have no recent sightings of transports headed toward India. I assume they are lurking in the shadows, filled with Japanese soldiers reading intently their Michelin Guides to Greater Calcutta.

And recently I read:
[font="Courier New"]90th Infantry Regiment is planning for an attack on Socotra.[/font]

The 63rd Indian Brigade is being sent to reinforce Socotra as a temporary stop-gap measure...or maybe as what will end up defending the island. It's not like I have much I can send anywhere in India! I also sent a small SCTF to the island to fight off any landing.

Additionally, he's been reconning Comilla which is the base on the RR just above Chittagong. I assume this is in preparation for a possible paradrop to cut off my (few) troops at Chittagong. It's the one RR base in the area not now occupied by Allied troops, but some are now on their way there.

Below indicates Japan's expansion as of February 9, 1942.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

Q-Ball says, yes, he'll be landing in India. His carriers are now 9 hexes from Calcutta but I have no recent sightings of transports headed toward India. I assume they are lurking in the shadows, filled with Japanese soldiers reading intently their Michelin Guides to Greater Calcutta.

And recently I read:
[font="Courier New"]90th Infantry Regiment is planning for an attack on Socotra.[/font]

The 63rd Indian Brigade is being sent to reinforce Socotra as a temporary stop-gap measure...or maybe as what will end up defending the island. It's not like I have much I can send anywhere in India! I also sent a small SCTF to the island to fight off any landing.

Additionally, he's been reconning Comilla which is the base on the RR just above Chittagong. I assume this is in preparation for a possible paradrop to cut off my (few) troops at Chittagong. It's the one RR base in the area not now occupied by Allied troops, but some are now on their way there.

Below indicates Japan's expansion as of February 9, 1942.

The best thing you can do is to fall back NOW to Bombay and Karachi. You'll not really be able to defend Calcutta, and you'll risk losing a pile of troops there with the only caveat being that there will be a chance the industry will be destroyed, maybe. Keep a token garrison there and start digging in Bombay and Karachi.

Begin sending US air forces and army unit through Cape Town to get them ready to go to India if you even get a chance without the KB closing down the IO.

Get out of Madras, Cochin, Chittagong and everywhere below the line of death that you are able to abandon. Indian troops are weak and inexperienced and Japan can double your numbers right now at least. Your air force sucks and your navy has no chance agains the KB. You can't defend Socotra or anywhere else if the KB arrives, so cancel that plan right away. If he's planning for Socotra then he's going all-in. He wants it all.

Read a few AARs on India being attacked, like Mr Kane vs GreyJoy. Read GreyJoy's current one vs me. Don't worry about mine as I've made the mistakes you don't have to make if you act now and pull back as much as possible. [:)]

[paullus99]

I'd recommend leaving enough in Calcutta to ensure that the industry gets trashed when he takes it.....

[SqzMyLemon]

Read QBall's AAR versus Canoerebel. The game fizzled out, but QBall mentions a lot of what he did wrong and it may give you a heads up on what may be coming your way. IF he's going all in then I believe Ceylon, Socotra and Karachi will be taken before Bombay or Calcutta. The key to taking all of India is preventing any Allied reinforcements arriving via Karachi. As long as you don't lose units fighting too far forward, as obvert warns, you will be in for one heck of a fight. Fun times!

[BBfanboy]

Yeah - my earlier advice was predicated on the idea that it would be another four months or so before he went for India.
If he is going all in right now before you have filled out units or brought much reinforcement, you do need to concentrate near Karachi and Bombay.
If you are using the extended map there is yet another base on the north map edge to defend ...[:(].

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Yeah - my earlier advice was predicated on the idea that it would be another four months or so before he went for India.

Actually now that I think about it, I believe QBall said he'd need to be on Ceylon before April and that he wasted too much time capturing it instead of landing on India proper. Hard to say what QBall will do, but if he is going to go for India, I think he'll land at Karachi as soon as possible. Just my opinion based on what I've read about his operations in India from his previous AAR.

[ny59giants]

I tend to send both the 40th & 41st American Divisions to Cape Town right away (or when they become available). They have to await PPs to leave CT, but they take over 30 days to get to CT. Some AA, a few DB groups, and eventually a few Marine CD head that way along with 51st FG (I exchange some of the old P25/36s to free up P-38s to send over).