A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

[warspite1]

And they aren't going to get a few hundred miles from Pearl without the green light.

warspite1

But the KB needs to be in place before the green light. What is the point of being days from the flying off point when the news is received that the carriers are in port. The carriers could then sail while the KB are positioning.

One day we may find out just exactly how far from the Hawaiian Islands everyone is when that dang green light finally goes off.

warspite1

Keep up Buckrock, it doesn’t matter where they are. When the green light does its thang, we can be sure:

The enlarged KB will be where it needs to be
It will be fully replenished and refuelled
The destroyers will appear where they need to be, when they need to be off Maui or whatever
The islands will be completely secured by a couple of battalions -and in no time! - who have landed with whole manner of transport, AA weaponry etc.
The airfield is of course secured to accept a plethora of Bettys, which will be greated by a veritable cornucopia of fuel, spare engines, bombs, torpedoes, spare parts etc.
The destroyers all head back to the KB for tea and medals.

Simples innit?

[Buckrock]

It' seems pretty clear now that when Curtus Lemay stated the discussion was about what the Japanese could have done with his plan, he actually meant what they could have done if they weren't the historical Japanese with all their limited resources, annoying administrative systems, rigid command hierachies, restrictive operational practices and a limited understanding of their own warship potential.

warspite1

Yep, same MO as the Spain thread. There is no point having a what if discussion if you don’t allow some liberties to be taken compared with what happened historically. But this - like Spain - goes beyond that to absurd lengths. An interesting discussion on what could perhaps have happened, just becomes fantastical nonsense whereby anything goes.

There is one difference between the two topics that immediately comes to mind. At least we could be relatively confident the historical Germans could have gotten their forces into position to launch an invasion of Spain.

[Orm]

I have been pondering on something. What if the Japanese, in a grandeur of over-confidence in their own ability and a total disregard for any future recourse and oil shortages, decided to delay attacking the CW countries, and instead follow up the attack on Pearl Harbour with a priority to capture Hawaii, and surrounding islands. Making this their priority for the first few months of the war. Maybe an attack on the Philippines at the same time.

I've been pondering on:
- How such a Japanese plan to attack HI first would have looked.
- How the US reaction to it would have been.
- What would be the reaction from the CW countries.
- And how long the Japanese have before they run out of fuel...

I get stuck creating a plan for Japan because I assume that the lack of suitable bases between Japan, and HI, is a killer. Capturing islands needed should go fast, but making them into decent bases to be used operationally to support an invasion of the main HI islands seems to be a time-killer that will getting Japan stuck in a mire of endless trouble.

[Aurelian]

I have been pondering on something. What if the Japanese, in a grandeur of over-confidence in their own ability and a total disregard for any future recourse and oil shortages, decided to delay attacking the CW countries, and instead follow up the attack on Pearl Harbour with a priority to capture Hawaii, and surrounding islands. Making this their priority for the first few months of the war. Maybe an attack on the Philippines at the same time.

I've been pondering on:
- How such a Japanese plan to attack HI first would have looked.
- How the US reaction to it would have been.
- What would be the reaction from the CW countries.
- And how long the Japanese have before they run out of fuel...

I get stuck creating a plan for Japan because I assume that the lack of suitable bases between Japan, and HI, is a killer. Capturing islands needed should go fast, but making them into decent bases to be used operationally to support an invasion of the main HI islands seems to be a time-killer that will getting Japan stuck in a mire of endless trouble.

Repost:

In Jan 42, the Naval General Staff studied invading, taking, and sustaining a garrison there.

3,000,000 tons of cargo required to feed the population over a year, pus 30 ships a month for military equipment. A 9kt freighter would 36 days to get there and back, not counting load/unload time, ship maintenance, and waiting for escorts.
Already, in Japan, food shortages were a serious topic.

The study concluded that their already overstressed merchant marine couldn't do it.

[Platoonist]

I have been pondering on something. What if the Japanese, in a grandeur of over-confidence in their own ability and a total disregard for any future recourse and oil shortages, decided to delay attacking the CW countries, and instead follow up the attack on Pearl Harbour with a priority to capture Hawaii, and surrounding islands. Making this their priority for the first few months of the war. Maybe an attack on the Philippines at the same time.

I've been pondering on:
- How such a Japanese plan to attack HI first would have looked.
- How the US reaction to it would have been.
- What would be the reaction from the CW countries.
- And how long the Japanese have before they run out of fuel...

I get stuck creating a plan for Japan because I assume that the lack of suitable bases between Japan, and HI, is a killer. Capturing islands needed should go fast, but making them into decent bases to be used operationally to support an invasion of the main HI islands seems to be a time-killer that will getting Japan stuck in a mire of endless trouble.

In the link in the very first post of this thread, an amateur historian proposes this actual scenario. Japan attacks the US, invades Hawaii. Doesn't declare war on anyone else. It's what kicked off this whole discussion.

[warspite1]

I have been pondering on something. What if the Japanese, in a grandeur of over-confidence in their own ability and a total disregard for any future recourse and oil shortages, decided to delay attacking the CW countries, and instead follow up the attack on Pearl Harbour with a priority to capture Hawaii, and surrounding islands. Making this their priority for the first few months of the war. Maybe an attack on the Philippines at the same time.

warspite1

The main problem here is:

Why would the Japanese disregard oil shortages? There would be no guarantee as to how long (if at all) it would take to subdue the HI. There would therefore be no way of saying what effort would need to be expended - and by effort of course I refer to oil for ships and fuel for planes in order to take these islands.

A second problem is that Churchill stated an attack on the US would be an attack on Britain. We know why he did this and I think its likely he would follow that up. So what? Britain wasn't able to do much to help was it? No it wasn't. But what it WOULD have been able to do in such a scenario, is prepare Malaya, Singapore and assist with the defence of the NEI for the attack when it came in company with the US. Even if Britain didn't go down that route, they and the Dutch would know they were next and could still prepare (and reinforce) together.

So what would an all out attack on the HI (and the PI) mean? It would mean massive oil expenditure (with no end date guaranteed) at a time Japan would continue to burn through their limited stockpiles of oil, rubber, tin etc. The British Commonwealth, Dutch and US forces would have a chance to prepare for an attack and, even in limited fashion, be able to reinforce.

Unless the NEI is taken quickly without the oil facilities being comprehensively destroyed, any Japanese attack on the HI would have been absolutely and utterly pointless. The Allies could simply sit and wait for the Japanese oil to run dry....

Given this, why would Japan choose this as an option?

[warspite1]

It' seems pretty clear now that when Curtus Lemay stated the discussion was about what the Japanese could have done with his plan, he actually meant what they could have done if they weren't the historical Japanese with all their limited resources, annoying administrative systems, rigid command hierachies, restrictive operational practices and a limited understanding of their own warship potential.

warspite1

Yep, same MO as the Spain thread. There is no point having a what if discussion if you don’t allow some liberties to be taken compared with what happened historically. But this - like Spain - goes beyond that to absurd lengths. An interesting discussion on what could perhaps have happened, just becomes fantastical nonsense whereby anything goes.

There is one difference between the two topics that immediately comes to mind. At least we could be relatively confident the historical Germans could have gotten their forces into position to launch an invasion of Spain.

warspite1

Indeed. And we can also be more than relatively confident they would have conquered Spain (and then Gibraltar). The problem of course for the Germans (apart from the obvious that they would never have done such a thing) is that such an action would have been just the very start of their problems...... And in that sense its exactly the same as the Japanese and HI.

[Orm]

I have been pondering on something. What if the Japanese, in a grandeur of over-confidence in their own ability and a total disregard for any future recourse and oil shortages, decided to delay attacking the CW countries, and instead follow up the attack on Pearl Harbour with a priority to capture Hawaii, and surrounding islands. Making this their priority for the first few months of the war. Maybe an attack on the Philippines at the same time.

I've been pondering on:
- How such a Japanese plan to attack HI first would have looked.
- How the US reaction to it would have been.
- What would be the reaction from the CW countries.
- And how long the Japanese have before they run out of fuel...

I get stuck creating a plan for Japan because I assume that the lack of suitable bases between Japan, and HI, is a killer. Capturing islands needed should go fast, but making them into decent bases to be used operationally to support an invasion of the main HI islands seems to be a time-killer that will getting Japan stuck in a mire of endless trouble.

Repost:

In Jan 42, the Naval General Staff studied invading, taking, and sustaining a garrison there.

3,000,000 tons of cargo required to feed the population over a year, pus 30 ships a month for military equipment. A 9kt freighter would 36 days to get there and back, not counting load/unload time, ship maintenance, and waiting for escorts.
Already, in Japan, food shortages were a serious topic.

The study concluded that their already overstressed merchant marine couldn't do it.

The study concluded that they couldn't supply the civilian population. My question is what the plan would look like to go after Hawaii in December 1941. All other Japanese considerations secondary.

[Orm]

I have been pondering on something. What if the Japanese, in a grandeur of over-confidence in their own ability and a total disregard for any future recourse and oil shortages, decided to delay attacking the CW countries, and instead follow up the attack on Pearl Harbour with a priority to capture Hawaii, and surrounding islands. Making this their priority for the first few months of the war. Maybe an attack on the Philippines at the same time.

warspite1

The main problem here is:

Why would the Japanese disregard oil shortages? There would be no guarantee as to how long (if at all) it would take to subdue the HI. There would therefore be no way of saying what effort would need to be expended - and by effort of course I refer to oil for ships and fuel for planes in order to take these islands.

A second problem is that Churchill stated an attack on the US would be an attack on Britain. We know why he did this and I think its likely he would follow that up. So what? Britain wasn't able to do much to help was it? No it wasn't. But what it WOULD have been able to do in such a scenario, is prepare Malaya, Singapore and assist with the defence of the NEI for the attack when it came in company with the US. Even if Britain didn't go down that route, they and the Dutch would know they were next and could still prepare (and reinforce) together.

So what would an all out attack on the HI (and the PI) mean? It would mean massive oil expenditure (with no end date guaranteed) at a time Japan would continue to burn through their limited stockpiles of oil, rubber, tin etc. The British Commonwealth, Dutch and US forces would have a chance to prepare for an attack and, even in limited fashion, be able to reinforce.

Unless the NEI is taken quickly without the oil facilities being comprehensively destroyed, any Japanese attack on the HI would have been absolutely and utterly pointless. The Allies could simply sit and wait for the Japanese oil to run dry....

Given this, why would Japan choose this as an option?

I am aware of the main problem. Japan obviously didn't go for it historically. It wasn't even, as I understand, an option they considered. However, what if they considered it. How would their reasoning go. What if the Japanese high command thought that without HI captured the war could not be won. And if HI was captured, then the southern resource area would fall into Japanese hands.

xxxx

The British, and Dutch would reinforce Malaya, and NEI. Would Australia assist, or would they focus on their own defences?

Are you sure that US would divert resources, at once, on defence of the Malaya/NEI area? With both HI, and Philippines under attack?

xxxx

What if the Japanese High Command gave their Staff the mission to produce such a plan. What would it look like?

[TulliusDetritus]

The Dutch () and the British would reinforce??? Guys, you can't be serious!

The UK already did that, remember? A couple of Indian brigades and the 18th division, which arrived in time to surrender aka they did not make the slightest difference!

Methinks there's some ridiculous chauvinistic USA USA USA here Lemay might not have proven anything but the others neither...

[Orm]

The Dutch () and the British would reinforce??? Guys, you can't be serious!

The UK already did that, remember? A couple of Indian brigades and the 18th division, which arrived in time to surrender aka they did not make the slightest diference!

Yes. Any attack from Japan on USA would make them reinforce the area. How they would reinforce is a different thing. And whether that would make any difference, or not, is also another question. Are you seriously stating that a Japanese attack on USA would not cause a reaction from the CW, and from the Dutch?

[Platoonist]

Are you sure that US would divert resources, at once, on defence of the Malaya/NEI area? With both HI, and Philippines under attack?

I'm not sure why that would seem so unlikely. Even with the Philippines under attack, the US did get an artillery battalion of the 131st Field Artillery ashore at Java. (They all ended up being POWS in the end.) More were due to follow before sea communications were too seriously threatened. Then you had whole US divisions and air groups diverted to Australia which was traditionally a British sphere of defense.

[TulliusDetritus]

Orm, did you forget the Dutch were occupied by the Germans?? What would this literal DWARF do exactly? Raise a giant "Indonesian" army, let's say 80 divisions, embark them and send them to Tokyo Bay...? The British already scrapped the bottom of the barrel when they sent this 18th division and other colonials eh

By the way, British historian Eric Hobsbawm barely avoided being captured. He was assigned to this unit but weeks before it was sent to the far east he was assigned to other unit.

[Orm]

Are you sure that US would divert resources, at once, on defence of the Malaya/NEI area? With both HI, and Philippines under attack?

I'm not sure why that would seem so unlikely. Even with the Philippines under attack, the US did get an artillery battalion of the 131st Field Artillery ashore at Java. (They all ended up being POWS in the end.) More were due to follow before sea communications were too seriously threatened. Then you had whole US divisions and air groups diverted to Australia which was traditionally a British sphere of defense.

Yes, but HI was not in the process of being invaded. I am not saying that they couldn't have done it. I am merely wondering if reinforcing NEI really would have had priority then. Wouldn't the initial US reaction have been somewhat panicky?

[Orm]

Orm, did you forget the Dutch were occupied by the Germans?? What would this literal DWARF do exactly? Raise a giant "Indonesian" army, let's say 80 divisions, embark them and send them to Tokyo Bay...? The British already scrapped the bottom of the barrel when they sent this 18th division and other colonials eh

By the way, British historian Eric Hobsbawm barely avoided being captured. He was assigned to this unit but weeks before it was sent to the far east he was assigned to other unit.

Right, hard to take you seriously when you argue like this. Don't know how to respond either.

[TulliusDetritus]

Right, hard to take you seriously when you argue like this.

I'm not arguing, I affirm the Dutch were an irrelevant dwarf, militarily speaking. I too affirm the British did all they could have done. Sooo...

[Platoonist]

Yes, but HI was not in the process of being invaded. I am not saying that they couldn't have done it. I am merely wondering if reinforcing NEI really would have had priority then. Wouldn't the initial US reaction have been somewhat panicky?

Panic doesn't last forever. Frankly, given the typical American ignorance in geography (that persists to this day) one of the most common US civilian reactions after the attack was; "Where's Pearl Harbor?" If Hawaii falls the US military still has to stop the Japanese somewhere. If the Japanese aren't attacking Malaysia and the DEI, which is practically right next to the Philippines and on its lines of communication that's a great place to start.

At some point, Japan being out of oil is going to be a huge force multiplier.

[warspite1]

The Dutch () and the British would reinforce??? Guys, you can't be serious!

The UK already did that, remember? A couple of Indian brigades and the 18th division, which arrived in time to surrender aka they did not make the slightest difference!

Methinks there's some ridiculous chauvinistic USA USA USA here Lemay might not have proven anything but the others neither...

warspite1

Oh dear.....

I said reinforcement and PREPARATION. The ability to reinforce would be limited (British) and almost impossible (Dutch) but that does not mean the forces could not have been better prepared. Given the Japanese situation with supply prior to the British surrender, small differences in preparation could mean big changes in outcome.

I don't understand why you believe the reinforcement by a British division (prior to the invasion) would not have likely made a big difference to the battle when it came. In real life the 18th Division was actually employed far too late to affect anything. Not so under this 'scenario'.

But you seem to be like Curtis Lemay. You don't consider that changes in one area, affect others. World War II didn't happen in silos. A delay by the Japanese in attacking Britain and the NEI (not to mention the PI) would have had knock on effects.

[warspite1]

Right, hard to take you seriously when you argue like this.

I'm not arguing, I affirm the Dutch were an irrelevant dwarf, militarily speaking. I too affirm the British did all they could have done. Sooo...

warspite1

NO, the British did what they did in December 1941. But this scenario envisaged here is not December 1941. What was proposed was that the Dutch and British (and possibly the PI) would be left while the Japanese make an all out effort for the HI.

So no, the British could (and did) send reinforcements. No one is talking about reinforcement and better preparation meaning the British and Dutch are going to be in Tokyo anytime soon. They don't have to be. They just need to delay the Japanese from obtaining the oil of the NEI while the IJN and IJA use up their reserves in a pointless exercise to take the HI.

[Platoonist]

In terms of reinforcements, the Commonwealth may have had the Australian 6th and 7th divisions available, as well as some units that were slated for Burma.