Wild Sheep Chase - obvert (J) vs JocMeister (A)

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Hi obvert. I finally caught up. This is a very interesting view into the late war Japanese debacle. A definite change is needed in the Japanese player's outlook. Scary. It is getting me thinking about possible ways to combat this inevitable outcome to delay things. Possibly building LI in Home Island bases with little or no manpower? I never thought I'd say that. How many would be useful? 1000 LI? If a Japanese player plays the early and mid war properly, he can amass 3 million HI in his pool. But, there's the question of supply. 1000 LI costs a million supply and gets you 1000 supply a day. Will that matter late war? I'm not sure. If you built that 1000 LI by Aug 42, you'd be in the green by the end of 1944. But, you'd be down a million supply too. Not sure it's worth it. What do you think an extra 1000 supply a day would get you now? Just a thought....

I just did some calculations. If you increase 10 LI per day in the Home Islands starting on 7 Dec 41, you'll have all 1000 built by 16 Mar 42. You will have spent 1 million supply by that time, but those LI will have produced 50,500 supply by then. 21 Oct 44 is the break even point. After that, you produce 1000 supply a day. Is it worth it?

Edit: It'll offset only 500 destroyed HI. Just trying to put it into perspective....

Really interesting thoughts Mike. I increased some LI and some HI in the Home Islands, but if I remember rightly it was only about 100 of each.

I think that extra would be felt, but what difference it would make depends on so many factors including how soon bombing of Tokyo/Osaka starts. Right now I can get by just fine on what I have, I simply can't expand any more engine or airframe factories. I have only a few points of R n D left to repair, and none of the recently damaged factories will be repaired at this point.

The crunch may come soon though as Manchuria supply production slows down due to less fuel. With your plan it might be a good idea to include an increase in Manchuria as well, since it's rarely lost before the Russians get going. I'm getting a whole slew of new divisions right now and I have a decent armaments pool but adding the squads will cost supply. A bunch of new troops are due in the Home Islands as well.

China is also a place where this could be considered as well. Shanghai and distant bases in the North away from strat bombing.

In March Jocke gets another 40 B-29s, so things could get nasty then.

This idea is worth a try, and Joseph and I have thrown it around a bit anticipating this late supply situation. I think the extra 1k a day would be a great addition, but also much more precise night fighter planning and a huge emphasis on flak in Tokyo and Osaka. I could have another 100 NF if I'd built the Ki-45d but now have no engines for it, so it might not happen. I can't afford a change now. It would have been great to see the benefit of NF earlier also to defend the DEI oil and HI. I simply didn't get them pushed forward enough in R n D and thus had very small pools when the first dedicated NF groups arrived. Also there are some IJAAF recon groups that upgrade to NF planes, and some FB groups that do as well, so I could have had them much earlier and in numbers.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Hi obvert. I finally caught up. This is a very interesting view into the late war Japanese debacle. A definite change is needed in the Japanese player's outlook. Scary. It is getting me thinking about possible ways to combat this inevitable outcome to delay things. Possibly building LI in Home Island bases with little or no manpower? I never thought I'd say that.

[X(] I never thought I'd hear you say that either Mike!

I've been a proponent of increasing LI, but I have not fully committed to it in a PBEM yet. It has to be undertaken from day one and in such numbers as to make it viable if you buy into the traditional view that it takes roughly 3 years to recover the 1000 supply cost of expanding LI by one point. I've been thinking about this idea for a long time now and I think a Japanese player should reconsider expanding LI as a viable option.

So few games make it to the late war, but we are starting to see that supply, not HI is becoming the critical factor. The more I play Japan, the more I realize it's a balancing act. You can initiate any economic strategy you want, but ultimately you are dealing with the fact that Japan's production capacity is finite. Regardless of what you choose to build the resources available to do so are finite. There is only so much fuel and it can produce only so much supply and HI. The only way to produce more supply without consuming more fuel is to expand LI. However, right now that practice is frowned upon because of the supply expenditure and length of time to recoup the initial 1000 invested per point.

Japan is all about stealing from Peter to pay Paul. What if you combine LI expansion with more prudent supply use throughout the Empire. Don't invade Australia, how much supply would that save you? Invest less in aircraft R&D and put that supply into LI expansion instead. Build one less level 9 fort, how much supply would that save? If you choose to play an aggressive Japan, burning lots of supply and fuel in combat operations then expanding LI is not the right decision. Play a prudent Japan and the LI expansion could add substantial supply available for the late game, when it now seems it's needed most. Why expend all that supply and fuel taking Australia when you are going to lose it anyway? What if you invested in LI expansion instead.

How many aircraft can fly on a 1000 extra supply a day? What if you can increase that to 1500 or even 2000 by late 44 or early 45? Playing Japan is all about choices, if you choose to adjust your strategy to account for the expense of LI expansion then I think it's an alternative. It can be effective if combined with any number of production decisions. You just may pay for it differently and not have to wait 3 years to recoup your investment.

I pay early and bank for the end game. I honestly believe LI expansion in some form is viable, it just hasn't been attempted yet to prove it or not.

And before Pax slaps me around. I'm well aware I'm becoming Troll-like on LI expansion. [:D]

It's a tough balance all around, and some places, like West OZ, can add months or half a year to the Allied timetable. That is worth the cost for me, and should me an aggregate supply gain. If you manage Perth as well, that produces supply and HI, so it could make up losses if held for a while.

The other concern is where your resources come from. Expanding LI will mean a lot more need to be imported, meaning more fuel consumption unless a player is very careful about always hauling both ways, filling up in fuel or resources for every return trip.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Spidery

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

I just did some calculations. If you increase 10 LI per day in the Home Islands starting on 7 Dec 41, you'll have all 1000 built by 16 Mar 42. You will have spent 1 million supply by that time, but those LI will have produced 50,500 supply by then. 21 Oct 44 is the break even point. After that, you produce 1000 supply a day. Is it worth it?

Actually, costs 1.1 million supply because of the expansion as well as the repair cost which means you are in profit about the end of January 1945. Between there and the end of 1945 they produce 330,000 supply. Total at peak production of supply is about 25000 per day so if you can delay the time at which the Allies destroy supply production by 14 days that, initially, seems a better use of the supply.

Interesting thought! Delay is the key word, but the extra you haven't yet made up completely may not really add to your ability to hold the Allies back. I know that could be extra forts, and they take time, but it again is a crap shoot as to how the Allies will come at you and when they'll get in range of the Home Islands.

[SqzMyLemon]

There are so many ways to justify whether or not to expand LI. Until someone tries it we just don't know the long term net cost/benefit/loss.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

There are so many ways to justify whether or not to expand LI. Until someone tries it we just don't know the long term net cost/benefit/loss.

And even then we won't know for years! [:D]

[ny59giants]

Another factor would be the intensity and frequency of ground combat. In your game it is going up and that will drain away your surplus quicker than you will like.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Spidery

Actually, costs 1.1 million supply because of the expansion as well as the repair cost which means you are in profit about the end of January 1945. Between there and the end of 1945 they produce 330,000 supply. Total at peak production of supply is about 25000 per day so if you can delay the time at which the Allies destroy supply production by 14 days that, initially, seems a better use of the supply.

Interesting thought! Delay is the key word, but the extra you haven't yet made up completely may not really add to your ability to hold the Allies back. I know that could be extra forts, and they take time, but it again is a crap shoot as to how the Allies will come at you and when they'll get in range of the Home Islands.

This is kind of my point. The Allies have to play ball and do what you want them to for your delay to be a factor. What if they simply bypass it and hit you where you don't expect it and you don't delay them at all? Couldn't that be an epic waste of supply? I get the Perth example, but other than the HI which is pooled, the supply is most likely used to supply your Australian troops or build forts, it's not going to be available directly at Japan for the end game unless you ship it there. Sure, it saved you having to ship it out from the Home Islands to maintain your troops in the field, but when you lose Perth you haven't actually increased your supply capacity for the Home Islands at all. Build the equivalent of Perth's supply generating capacity in Manchuria and physically ship it to Japan and then I think you are ahead of the curve and reaping the benefits of more supply exactly where you need it for the late game.

Also, expanding LI doesn't mean you don't receive the benefits from expanding only after 3 years. You recoup 1/3 supply used each year, so that could then be invested back into factory expansion or fort building leading up to when you are now in the green. Would you rather be building forts in late 44 or simply using the supply to fly aircraft and keep your combat troops in fighting form already fighting behind level 6 or higher forts? Do you want to be expanding factories in 44/45 while they're being bombed and needing repair at the same time, or simply repairing your already expanded ones with the extra supply you gained from your 3 year investment?

I choose to pay the high supply cost on expansion early when I don't need the supply, rather than wish I could generate more when it's already too late. Again, I'm a conservative player with Japan and time will tell whether not expanding the perimeter to delay the Allies was a mistake or not. Regardless, if I expand LI and it only generates an extra 1000 supply/day by 45 how is that a bad thing? It's a 1000 times more than I would have had otherwise.

There's two ways to look at this in my view. [8D]

Another thought. I could possibly delay the Allies taking a key base for 14 days with KB alone, no forts, no large commitment of troops and zero supply use, yet I might have gained 1000k/day of supply for two weeks in 45 because of it. Like I said, there's more ways to look at using/saving supply then the obvious.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Another factor would be the intensity and frequency of ground combat. In your game it is going up and that will drain away your surplus quicker than you will like.

This is a great point. Ground combat is of course inevitable and any DA with the kind of forces we're using now will cost 5-10k supply.

All of this is modeled well, as unless the Japanese really take it to the Allies early, get a 'rader feedback loop' going using Indian HI/suppy production, then there will be supply problems. A good Allied player will put pressure on the problem in multiple ways. But without the political component they've got little to lose playing the beta and without stacking limits. It's tough to get the kind of spectacular LBA hits on late war invasions when everything is coming in little pieces and hitting a 600 Corsair CAP.

With the beta I think the possibility of getting into 46 has lessened significantly. With a DBB mod like what GJ-Qball are using, it might be next to impossible.

That said, there is still lime left to affect timelines, so we'll see.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon


Another thought. I could possibly delay the Allies taking a key base for 14 days with KB alone, no forts, no large commitment of troops and zero supply use, yet I might have gained 1000k/day of supply for two weeks in 45 because of it. Like I said, there's more ways to look at using/saving supply then the obvious.

This was my strategy early for almost a year. The problem is that it takes fuel!

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: obvert

This was my strategy early for almost a year. The problem is that it takes fuel!

But you offset that with the supply you generate from your LI expansion which doesn't require fuel. [:D]

[PaxMondo]

I think you biggest stumbling block to expanding LI in '42 is simple: If you expand 1000 LI, you won't be able to expand 1000 ac/eng factories. Are you willing to trade off that? All that mid and late war R&D and engine expansion to get the bonus ... you won't have supply to do that. Are you willing to fight with Oscar/Nate instead of Tojo in '42? Are you willing to fight Tojo instead of Frank in '43?

Again, its simple numbers. There is a finite amount of supply and most players burn through all they have early and then need '42 to recover and are barely keeping even until about May 42. Now if you never have less than 1.5M supply in Tokyo from Dec 7, 41 through Jun42, then you are a candidate to consider building LI. If on the other hand, your supply in Tokyo drops to 500K or lower in Tokyo in that period, that means you will have to re-configure your ac/eng build plan and reduce it by 1000 factories.

I know that I would really struggle to find that 1M supply. But that's just me ... YMMV. [;)]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: obvert

This was my strategy early for almost a year. The problem is that it takes fuel!

But you offset that with the supply you generate from your LI expansion which doesn't require fuel. [:D]

But you then can't run HI as long which makes 2x supply for every HI point! [:D]

The point is, one way or another the Japanese economy will turn sour. Some will taste it earlier, some can deal with a bit of skum floating on their morning coffee for a while longer.

Against a determined, aggressive Allied player who takes measured risks often, the pace will wear down the Japanese economy. Period. There is no winning late against a good opponent. It's just along slow slide. Still a lot of fun, though, to do what you can.

I think this is good for the game, and overall could mitigate the constant cries about over-production, R n D and other things the Japanese can do they couldn't do historically. When you see that it still all comes to nought due to the other non-historical Allied advantages of pace, massive concentrations of ground bombing troops, etc, then people will realize it's pretty well balanced out.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

I think you biggest stumbling block to expanding LI in '42 is simple: If you expand 1000 LI, you won't be able to expand 1000 ac/eng factories. Are you willing to trade off that? All that mid and late war R&D and engine expansion to get the bonus ... you won't have supply to do that. Are you willing to fight with Oscar/Nate instead of Tojo in '42? Are you willing to fight Tojo instead of Frank in '43?

Again, its simple numbers. There is a finite amount of supply and most players burn through all they have early and then need '42 to recover and are barely keeping even until about May 42. Now if you never have less than 1.5M supply in Tokyo from Dec 7, 41 through Jun42, then you are a candidate to consider building LI. If on the other hand, your supply in Tokyo drops to 500K or lower in Tokyo in that period, that means you will have to re-configure your ac/eng build plan and reduce it by 1000 factories.

I know that I would really struggle to find that 1M supply. But that's just me ... YMMV. [;)]

Maybe Pax, but after the LI start going you are getting that extra production of supply as well, and maybe we don't need some of these frames as early as we get them anyway. The Tojo comes whether you add R n D or not in Autumn 42. The Frank has a factory partially repaired that will push it forward a bit, and you will want to add at least another if not two more. There are a lot of planes we push forward that we don't probably HAVE to have so early.

The ones I'd want are the Frank, the Judy, the Jack, the Sam and the Grace. At 3 x 30 for each, that's not so much. I'd also want a bit of NF production to start early on both IJA and IJN lines. The rest of the planes I'm finding interesting, but not necessary. The Jill comes very quickly, the Helen does as well. The Frances is a good plane to add into the mix, but it doesn't have to come much earlier. Maybe a few months. The A6M line is a dead end and once you get to the A6M5 the rest are really not absolutely necessary, and really don't need extra R n D spending.

R n D is really fun to do but really not that critical to fighting hard in defense.

Most Allied players won't start an offensive until late 42 or early 43. If you have the Jill and Judy by then, at least the A5M3a and the Tojo, you're probably fine. It's a late war focus, and the early going is more about good positioning and pilot quality anyway.

[Mike Solli]

Sorry to stir up this hornet's nest in your AAR obvert. I made a little spreadsheet to calculate supply cost/production effects from building LI. I checked the bases in the Home Islands and there are 20 bases that have manpower <=5, LI and with no more than one other factory (armament, vehicle, engine or aircraft). I figure the Allied player wouldn't bother to bomb these factories with the intention of getting massive fires to destroy everything. There's probably not enough to warrant wasting valuable 4E bombers on them. Anyway, if each of these LI factories is increased by 50 starting on 7 Dec 41, they will be completely repaired in 50 days (25 Jan 42). At this point 1.1 million supply (thanks Spidery) would have been spent and 25,500 would have been recouped. On 3 Jan 45, the 1.1 million supply would be recouped. After that, you now have a positive cash flow of 1000 supply points per turn. At this point in the game, is it worth it?

[Mike Solli]

Some other info to consider...

This is just based on the starting infrastructure in Honshu. Assuming sufficient resources and fuel, Honshu produces 567,750 supply per month. If the Allied player totally destroys Osaka and Tokyo (by far the two largest producers on the island), that monthly supply production drops to 150,750 a month. Would an extra 30,000 supply a month from the extra 1000 LI really matter at this point?

One thing I am going to do is to put massive air defenses in those cities. Not sure if it will matter though after reading this AAR. [:(]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Sorry to stir up this hornet's nest in your AAR obvert. I made a little spreadsheet to calculate supply cost/production effects from building LI. I checked the bases in the Home Islands and there are 20 bases that have manpower <=5, LI and with no more than one other factory (armament, vehicle, engine or aircraft). I figure the Allied player wouldn't bother to bomb these factories with the intention of getting massive fires to destroy everything. There's probably not enough to warrant wasting valuable 4E bombers on them. Anyway, if each of these LI factories is increased by 50 starting on 7 Dec 41, they will be completely repaired in 50 days (25 Jan 42). At this point 1.1 million supply (thanks Spidery) would have been spent and 25,500 would have been recouped. On 3 Jan 45, the 1.1 million supply would be recouped. After that, you now have a positive cash flow of 1000 supply points per turn. At this point in the game, is it worth it?

Well, I'd say yes as long as those expenditures early don't knock back your ability to fight, hold the line and get what you need done in the first four months. Also, your R n D would have to be prioritized to accommodate for this.

Some other info to consider...

This is just based on the starting infrastructure in Honshu. Assuming sufficient resources and fuel, Honshu produces 567,750 supply per month. If the Allied player totally destroys Osaka and Tokyo (by far the two largest producers on the island), that monthly supply production drops to 150,750 a month. Would an extra 30,000 supply a month from the extra 1000 LI really matter at this point?

One thing I am going to do is to put massive air defenses in those cities. Not sure if it will matter though after reading this AAR.

Does your calculation take into account refinery supply production?

The other major focus is to be organized so that by mid-44 ALL factories and repairs are finished other than some final R n D repairs if absolutely needed. All fort building in the HI should also be completed by then. So with no 'extra' drains on supply, then this bumped up supply producing from the added LI should keep building a nice bonus. Supply itself can be burned up in the bombings though too, so it could all go for nought.

I think it's a matter of strategic choice. All early, balanced through the war, or focused on the late period. I tried to be balanced, but didn't know the effects of strat bombing would so dramatically reduce supply generation so quickly. I think I'm making about 480,000 a month now though. I wonder what would happen if I turned EVERYTHING off for a month. Would I see a nice buffer from that?

I may try it. Just run AA and NF. Of course a lot of units are taking supply as well to build. There will still be expenses I can't control, but it would be interesting to see how much would build up.

[Mike Solli]

Yup, I'm including HI, LI and refineries for the supply production figures. So, if you don't have enough oil to keep the refineries operating, your supply goes down even more. Scary.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: obvert


Maybe Pax, but after the LI start going you are getting that extra production of supply as well, and maybe we don't need some of these frames as early as we get them anyway. The Tojo comes whether you add R n D or not in Autumn 42. The Frank has a factory partially repaired that will push it forward a bit, and you will want to add at least another if not two more. There are a lot of planes we push forward that we don't probably HAVE to have so early.

The ones I'd want are the Frank, the Judy, the Jack, the Sam and the Grace. At 3 x 30 for each, that's not so much. I'd also want a bit of NF production to start early on both IJA and IJN lines. The rest of the planes I'm finding interesting, but not necessary. The Jill comes very quickly, the Helen does as well. The Frances is a good plane to add into the mix, but it doesn't have to come much earlier. Maybe a few months. The A6M line is a dead end and once you get to the A6M5 the rest are really not absolutely necessary, and really don't need extra R n D spending.

R n D is really fun to do but really not that critical to fighting hard in defense.

Most Allied players won't start an offensive until late 42 or early 43. If you have the Jill and Judy by then, at least the A5M3a and the Tojo, you're probably fine. It's a late war focus, and the early going is more about good positioning and pilot quality anyway.

Understand Erik, either create a spreadsheet to look at what you will be able to build or start an AI game to see what you get. You'll have to be building Ida, Sonia, Nate, etc. for many months. You don't have the supply to get everything moved to Oscar/Sally/Zero that you always want to. As I said, if you are fine with fighting Nates for +6 months, you can build up your LI and you will get 1000/day more. It is some, but to me it isn't enough to compensate for all the pain to get there. The total additional amount you get is so small you could either get it in game easier, or simply NOT expand/build a few ac factories mid-game and achieve the same thing.

Sorry, there is no analysis to support building LI. Scrutinized the numbers every which way. Doesn't mean you can't do it, of course you can. But, you can't claim it is more efficient. No analytical support for it. Your shortage of supply end game is a result of supply expenditure decisions mid game. The ROI on LI, due to the time to build and the brevity of time that you get the benefit, is just too low.

As stated, I know that I will not be able to tolerate the impact of that 1M loss of supply in '42. I am not willing to fight with Nates or Ida's one day more than I absolutely have to. It costs me too many pilots and extends my conquest timelines which will cost me MORE supply than I can net with LI. That's just me.

I know that you and Joseph are enamored with the idea, so go for it. One of you two absolutely needs to prosecute this idea in a game to find out for yourselves. You've been kicking it out there for over two years and jump on it as a saving strategy every chance you get. Do it. Do an AAR so we can have some fun with it. Good Luck! [&o][&o][&o]

[PaxMondo]

Oh, and to the point here, go back into this game and tally up all of your factory builds and repairs. Get a total. Then tell MikeS. He'll faint. [;)] It will be more than double what he or I build.

The Mike Solli school of economic states that you don't expand a factory until the last second. You rarely have idle ac factories because you have no real excess. And certainly, you never shut down +200 factories due to ac inventory (I recall a recent AAR and the player had >800 ac factories idled due to ac pools. By Mike S economics that player had spent at least 880K supply that he shouldn't have. I'm ignoring the engine factory overbuild here, so these are very conservative numbers).

In my games I rarely ever have either idle ac or engine factories, they are alway producing full tilt and I never have more than 100 planes in the pool of any ac that I am currently building. I rarely have more than 20. The only time I have more than 20 are the KB ac that I have to stock a bit more so when they come to port I can replace losses subsequent to combat.

In other words, my ac scheme looks a lot more like reality than most players. Example, once I get the Tojo it means I have hit equalibrium with IJA Fighters. I always have the last 3 generations in service. Tojo is my front line fighter, Oscar my 2nd line, and then Nate is my rear area CAP and training reserve. When Frank comes along, Nate will pretty much leave the board replaced by Oscar and the Tojos slowly replace the Oscars. I generally build enough factories to cover losses and to convert 1 or sometimes 2 groups per month. That's it. A much slower pace than most players and closer to historical (although even then I am building a bit more than historical).

Most other players as evidenced by their AAR's, once they have Tojo they build +200 factories (I saw one AAR and the player had almost 500 Tojo factories!) with the plan to upgrade their entire air force in 3 months. They do the same with Frank .... etc. So, just in IJA fighter factories that player spent over 1.5M supply (3 gens of fighters at 500K each). Anyway, long story short, when I was done analyzing the players build he had spent +4M supply on ac factories more than I would ever contemplate.

My point here is the reason players run out of supply is not the game, but player decisions. And looking for solutions to that is natural. But the numbers do not lie, and the devs did this intentionally, you can't get there with LI. You just need to prove this to yourself is all. Start a game and do it! [&o][&o][&o]

[Mike Solli]

After looking at some more numbers, I have to agree with Pax. LI is not the answer. I just checked the numbers from my game. I keep track of a lot of info daily and keep it forever so I know that on 25 Jan 42 of my game, I had 2,541,316 supply available, about 500k below what I started the game with. If I remove 1.1 million supply from that, I'd have only 1.4 million supply remaining. I wouldn't get that 1.1 million back until Jan 45. That 2.5 million hovers around there until May 42 before it begins to increase. I'm only up to ~3-3.1 million in Nov 42. That's too big a chunk to live without for 2 critical years of war. And, that 2.5 million is across the board, not only in the Home Islands. I fear that if you pull 1.1 million out of the Home Islands, the economy would collapse.

I also agree with Pax's comments on airframe/engine factories. I'm building more than I ever have and it's nowhere near what most have. I have only a couple models with near or at 100 in the pool. Most are at 20 or less. I learned my lesson in my first WitP game when I upgraded the A6M2 and ended up with 800+ in the pool. That's 13k HI chucked out the window. More than half never flew. I won't do that again.