Notes from a Small Island

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1/7/45

Sapporo: Spits from Toyohara throw a shutout.

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1/7/45

Sapporo: High-altitude Corsair sweeps score very well. Keep this up, add in the escorted 4EB missions, and toss in another large carrier strike, and there should be some excitement!

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1/7/45

Toyohara: This mission at 20k does well.

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1/7/45

Sapporo: Another good mission. I hope there are lots more to come, because Erik still have about 250 fighters in the air. Wear them out, boys, wear them out!

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1/7/45

Sapporo: Darn, the early sweeps (those before the bombers) are done. Here come the escorted bombers. The first mission is a small one but fares decently. Enemy CAP down to about 225 at the start of this mission. Again, I'm more concerned about fighter losses than bomber losses.

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1/7/45

Sapporo: This group finds about 225 fighters on CAP.

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1/7/45

Sapporo: These Marine Corsairs come in high and face about 175 fighters, scoring well. The Marine fighters always come in after the PBYs and before the B-24s. The Army fighters always come after the B-24s.

It sure looks good thus far. Sweepers and escorted bombers are handling the enemy CAP, weakening it steadily.

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1/7/45

Sapporo: The first Army bombers come in, facing 175 enemy fighters.

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1/7/45

Sapporo: This raid faces 140 fighters and scores well.

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1/7/45

Sapporo: Army fighters come in high, facing 120 fighters, and do well.

Oh, man, I sure hope Death Star is going to launch an afternoon strike!

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1/7/45

Sapporo: Small raid faces 89 fighters and does pretty well.

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1/7/45

Sapporo: Mustangs face 69 fighters and deal them a blow.

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1/7/45

Sapporo: Lightings face 46 fighters and perform well.

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1/7/45

Sapporo: Death Star strikes against just 56 enemy fighters! The plan worked!

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1/7/45

Sapporo: And Death Star finds this prey in port, protected by just those 56 fighters and flak.

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1/7/45

Sapporo: And Death Star whiffs!

Arg! Arg! Arg!

There are only about 40 Avengers involved and no divebombers. I don't know why, as all were set identically.

Arg!

(P.S. I bet Erik had a heart attack and an unexpectedly joyful revival during this replay.)

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1/7/45

Sapporo: LBA from Toyohara gets in on the action, facing minimal opposition, and selects these targets.

Somewhere, the Wizard of AE is laughing, as he pulls funny levers behind a curtain shrouded in smoke wafting from his bong.

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1/7/45

AE Wizard: <chortle>

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1/7/45

And thus endenth the main events around Sapporo.

AE Wizard: <chortle, chortle>

Important things:

1. Allied fighters scored a 95:19 victory during sweeps (not counting whatever fighters are lost to ops). That's a great day and bodes well (I think) for the future. It is possible that Erik relied on big numbers of planes to create the appearance of invicibility, and used all his elite pilots elsewhere, but no matter what this was a key Allied victory. The fighter war is key to the balance of the game.

2. The Allies lost a signficant number of aircraft, as did Japan, but not nearly enough to threaten future amphibious plans (pending future events).

3. The plan was (mostly) a good one and caught Erik offguard (I think).

4. Erik's Sapporo ships are now "isolated" or "hemmed in," to an extent. Most of my thinking today was devoted to what he might do now and how I can best cover various contingencies.

5. The failure to strike a telling blow agianst his cruisers was, as you might imagine, disappointing. <chortle>

6. Erik won't be surpised tomorrow. Hitting a fully-aroused enemy of his caliber is risky but his capital ships are indeed in harm's way. It's going to take alot of time to decide what to do tomorrow, beginning with the first decision: Offense or defense? I'm leaning towards the former.

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1/7/45

Intel Screen: Hey, air losses look much closer to even than I had expected. I was prepared for a reverse Marianas Turkey Shoot, but that definitely didn't happen.

Let's see next if most of the Japanse losses are fighters, and disproportionate (I hope) to Allied fighter losses. That's the key to my evaluation of the turn.