New AAR - but not as good as Snigbert's

[IChristie]

Mogami - just FYI, I compiled some of the info we were discussing yesterday in terms of supply etc. I have some screenshots to post but they are on my machine at home. Hopefully I can post them later today.

Now, where were we:

9- Oct - The luganville shuffle continues for a couple of days. The airfield at Lunga proves to be tough to keep out of commission. It must be because of its size and the availability of engineer units. It keeps coming back even after some pretty good poundings. The heavy units are headed back for another round after refueling at Nevea.

The convoy is still unloading. They still have over 65% on board, I figure it will take them about a week to unload. By the time they are through, the next convoy carrying another 35K tons from Shortland will be due.

Air raids from Noumea continue with increased intensity. So far they are mostly concentrating on Koumac and the ships at Port Vila and not the convoy at Luganville.

The aviation support situation at Port Vila continues to be serious. I try to rest planes as much as possible and I have moved some groups back up to Truk with the planes that can fly. I'll move them back down is some attractive targets appear.

At the end of the turn I notice that the US begins an airlift of supplies to Luganville. I still have a small LRP on station and they report shooting down several of the transports. This is a good sign, because it means the supply situation is starting to bite. I will beef up the LRP to see if I can interdict more transports if the AI tries it again.

10 Oct - The US CA's are at sea again. This time I pick them up off the N tip of New Caledonia. The system works the way it's supposed to and a/c from Port Vila put another bomb into San Francisco. A larger raid would have been nice, but the planes are still mostly grounded while the repair crews are catching up.

I'm not sure where they are headed. They do not appear to have any transports in tow so I don't think it's and invasion of Koumac. Could be another run for Lunga in which the Birds of Paradise will be waiting. They will have to survive another day of air attacks to get there and this time I'll be ready.

The AI sends a big raid agains the convoy. Despite my having almost 30 fighters on station the raid gets through and sinks one of the transports and damages an escort. This is a little ominous. The disturbing thing about this is that not only are the raids getting bigger, I think their aim is getting better too. With raids of 50+ bombers, I just don't know where I am going to find the fighters to keep them off the convoys.

I think this convoy and the next may be the last two really big ones I am able to send. They are mostly made up of 3000 tonners and that is what is taking so long to unload - which is the real problem. I think from now on, I may use the smaller AP's for this run to decrease their exposure at anchor.

11 - Oct - The Revenge of the Birds
The AI gets and object lesson in pushing your luck when the US CA's are caught south or Rennell I. by planes from Lunga. The San Francisco is torpedoed once and the Australia takes 2 bomb hits. By then end of the day the cruisers have split off from the main task force a sure sign that they are in trouble. Just in case they press on to Lunga I prepare a fast CA force to run down the slot from Shortland.

LBA from Noumea takes it up another notch. This time the concentrate on the heavy group which is laying up in Port Vila. Again the CAP does what it can but the raid gets through and this time they manage to hit Nagato. The damage caused is minor (less than 10% system damage) but it's too close for comfort. I think I'm going to have to start running the bombardment forces in from the north. Port Vila is just too close to Noumea.

The convoy up anchored and sailed in the night, because I had forgot to set them to "do not retire". I straighten that out and send them back. Likewise the fast transports carrying the base force for Port vila have been fiddling around at sea, I think afraid to go into Port Vila because of the air activity. I set them to "do not retire as well"

12 Oct. The US cruiser TF breaks off and turns up in Luganville in the morning. They manage to avoid tangling with the bid dogs but the Port Vila air force has a go at them and hits Australia repeatedly and also damages a DD. I see no sign of San Francisco and suspect that she was sunk after the action yesterday.

The AI tries another airlift into Luganville and this time the carnage is impressive (if the pilots reports are to be believed). It seems like a large percentage of the missions were interdicted and several transports were shot down.

Overall, the campaign is playing out about the way I expected. I still have complete mastery of the ocean and the ability to interdict any naval operation that I care to. I have enough air parity to keep the supply lane to the beachead open for now but I can see the day coming when that will not be true.

The airbase at Luganville is a non-factor right now. Probably as because there are too few supplies to repair damage and planes as well as the damage from the bombardments.

The next couple of weeks will be crucial. I need to get enough supplies ashore before the increasing air power starts to close the supply line. I'm also going to have to rethink the deployment of reserves as well. I'm not sure I'll be able to sail them down in the large transports - I may have to shuttle them in over a period of days using fast transports. If so, I'll need to get them moved forward sooner. It will all depend on how the air situation goes.

Once the convoys are done, I am going to have to find a way to rest some of the air assets so that I can pull together enough firepower to actually contest the air battle when the land battle starts to heat up.

On the positive side, the supply situation must be serious on the other side or the airlifts would not have started. I think I can successfully keep Luganville isolated both by sea and air so it will be an interesting month of November and December. Alot will also depend on the AI's reaction to the bases at Koumac and Port Vila...

[Ron Saueracker]

Iain, looks like all those staff courses you had to take back in the arty days are standing you in good stead. This is a GREAT AAR. Lots of info, almost reads like a story line.

Is it me, or does there seem to be way too much continuous action? You would think by now that most of the allied and IJN units would be at the point of exhaustion. Is this the case, as I have little idea from the posts? What are the system damage levels on your ships which have been in action continuously but have not been hit, they must need an overhaul soon. What are the fatigue levels? Morale?

Back to the fuel issue:p . The level of force utilization on the Japanese side is huge. Did the Japanese have this much oil to pull this off realistically? Maybe our logistics master Mogami could make a rough calculation of Iain's fuel usage up to now (assuming his life in a cave near Mt Fuji is lacking enough in joy that such an undertaking would be a pleasure ) based on his data posted in the FUEL ISSUE thread a few weeks ago. This would be very informative and perhaps (if unrealistic) lead to an adjustment of the unlimited fuel situation at present in a future upgrade.

Anyway...Looks like the allies are in deep doodoo, Iain.

[mogami]

Well since the fuel has to be hauled down from Truk the system works. I think Ichristie has discovered the BB's suck up everything from everywhere. The Yamato group cruising around would need around 45k ( tons every 4-5 days. It is likely using a little less by staying near by. I too would like to know how much fuel it needs in game terms. (the 45k Tons would be Yamato 4 CA 1 CL 6-8 DD)

[IChristie]

That number must be close to correct.

Let me see.... The heavy TF Consists of Yamato, Mutsu, Nagato, 1CA and 6 DD's.

They started full and in 4-5 days of doing the Luganville Shuffle (which does not require steaming an full speed) they emptied 3x5K tankers and were down to about 30% again.

[IChristie]

Anyway...Looks like the allies are in deep doodoo, Iain.

They may well be, but they are doing a fine job of shovelling it almost as fast as I keep pushing it in the hole and the net result is that we are all pretty smelly right now! :rolleyes:

[mogami]

Getting pretty close to old Chin Lee showing up and wreaking the party. Good thing we have Yamato and the twins (Mutsu and Nagato) going to be a good fight, let me know in time to cook some pop corn.

[juliet7bravo]

Fuel...how many tankers, and what size do you have under your control?

Overall tanker availability a known for this period, ditto for Truk overall storage capacity I think, as well as Japanese oil reserves and refinery output. Should be able to figure whether he's using more fuel than would have been realistically available. Given the short prep time used to move supplies and fuel forward, and the amount of shipping movements, I'd have to suspect he's using ALOT of oil.

How much fuel total, and over what time period would you estimate you've drew from Truk?

Fuel usage by your heavy TF does sound about right. What's the fuel usage for the Yamamoto? Mutsu should burn about 150 tons per day steaming at economy speed, 1000 tons at high speed. DD 30/150 I think.

[ftwarrior]

Iain,

A thought on keeping US air manageable....

I know your assets are already stretched, but it's looking like US air is going to win this attritive air battle (prolonged 'till 1 Jan) under the status quo.....anything you can do to take Noumea down a notch so as to at least increase their flight times for a higher proportion of their strikes => increase fatique among their crews => take some pressure off?

The thought is that the clock seems to be ticking against IJN even on a localized basis. Would it be better to knock down their virtually exponential growth curve while its still reltively small in this region and there are still appreciable air assets to do it?

Don't have all your information in front of me, so if this makes no sense, ignore me.

Banzai

[IChristie]

Hmmm.... some good questions let me take them in no particular order:

I know your assets are already stretched, but it's looking like US air is going to win this attritive air battle (prolonged 'till 1 Jan) under the status quo.....anything you can do to take Noumea down a notch so as to at least increase their flight times for a higher proportion of their strikes => increase fatique among their crews => take some pressure off?

I have been thinking about that and have not come up with anything very attractive. The only immediate options for dealing with Noumea would be to raid it by air or sea. I'm not happy with either of these options. I have found IMHO that Japanese air power is very good against ships and downright lousy against ground installations (the exact oppositie is true of the US bombers). I can't even do substantial damage to the field at Luganville from Port Vila and its only 4 hexes away. Besides, Noumea must be home to at least 150 allied fighters now (since some raids have had 75+ escorts). Any air attack is likely to be suicidal and accomplish nothing. I proved that at Port Moresby early on when I raided it round the clock for 3 days and accomplished next to nothing besides reducing my available bomber force by about 50%.

Similarly a naval raid would likely get taken to pieces by the LBA, although I could provide LRP almost the whole way there. With a fast CL force it might be worth a try. I'll think about it.

One solution which might be attractive would be to send a raid by land down from Koumac. I have 2000 troops ashore and there is a road down to Noumea. Hmmmm.... If nothing else this would certainly pre-occupy some of the forces in New Caledonia. I think I can get some more troops ashore using the fast transports. Maybe it's time for the 2nd div recon to go for a walk. Thanks for the suggestion

Right now Koumac is actually the best protection for Port Vila and Luganville. IF the a/c devoted to pummelling it to dust were devoted elsewhere I would be in a world of hurt. In the last game turn I would not be at all surprised if a/c from Noumea flew 200 sorties agains Koumac (vs about 75 against the ships up north).

The game does model crew fatigue and I am guessing that the intensity of operations will have to slack off for a little while in about another 3 to 4 days as a/c get tired and demoralized. The flights to Luganville , Port Vila will likely suffer first as unescorted bombing missions are not popular and demoralized crews will refuse to fly them. We should also start seeing a lot "failed to find target" messages as apathy starts to set in.

The problem will be the rate at which new groups arrive to freshen the crews.

My strategy right now is to keep as many fresh a/c and crew as I can while still protecting my assets. I want to be able to be able to contest the airspace over Luganville on fairly even turns when the offensive begins in late Nov/Dec.

[ftwarrior]

From my memory of the posts, the Allied transport situation should be quite thin. Where are they - where are they coming from?

Unless their actually docked in Port Moresby - which IJN can't seem to dent right know - I bet Noumea could be rapidly (considering their current tempo of air ops) strangled.

Still have any of those slow carriers around with nothing to do?
Subs around Noumea?
Yamoto and/or Mitsu and/or Nagano up for a little target practice?
With little in the way of naval assets on the other side.....easy pickings.

[IChristie]

I'm not sure where the transports are. Unfortunately it doesn't matter because Noumea is a source of supply and so cannot be put out of supply. Nice thought though!

BTW, the carrier situation is thus:
Shokaku in Truk for repairs with no a/c aboard (haven't checked on her in a while, I should do that)
Hiryu, Kaga, Zuiho. Shoho in Shortland with full a/c complements
Ryujo sank on the way back from Luganville
Unyo was sunk during the landings

[tanjman]

Iain,

Keep up the good work on those AARs.

Are you using your subs to interdict convoys going to Noumea? If not where are they? Just their general op areas, not a detailed listing.

Thanks

[Ron Saueracker]

You mean that the United Federation of Planets beams in supplies to Noumea? The whole point of taking bases so far south was to put a stranglehold on allied reinforcement/counterattack operations. Hmmm...gonna be alot more difficult to hold new aquisitions now. Do USN reinforcements just PLOP into Noumea as well?:rolleyes:

This obviously applys to Truk as well.

[IChristie]

Fuel...how many tankers, and what size do you have under your control?

I am working from memory but I believe that I can carry about 85K tons of fuel in the tanker fleet in TK's (5000 tons) and AO's (8000 tons). There are actually a couple of TK's attached to routine convoys as well so I might be able to scrape up another 10K tons in a pinch. Fuel can also be carried in other types of ships at 50% capacity (i.e. a 3000 ton AP carries 1500 tons of fuel).

Right now I have about 55K tons in tankers at Nevea with the rest on their way back to Truk to refuel.

How much fuel total, and over what time period would you estimate you've drew from Truk?

I'm not sure in total. At the start of the offensive there was about 70K tons stockpiled at Shortland and Lunga combined. That is all gone now and I have turned all the tankers around once, but some of them are still full - so probably about 100-110K tons of fuel. That doesn't include the fact that TF's that started full in August are not full now - that might be another 20K? So total consumption in two months is about 130K tons altogether, I would guess.

[IChristie]

You mean that the United Federation of Planets beams in supplies to Noumea? The whole point of taking bases so far south was to put a stranglehold on allied reinforcement/counterattack operations. Hmmm...gonna be alot more difficult to hold new aquisitions now. Do USN reinforcements just PLOP into Noumea as well?

This obviously applys to Truk as well

Yup

Hey if it was easy it wouldn't be so much fun to try!:rolleyes:

[Toro]

If Noumea can't be "out of supply," can the airbase be bombed into unavailability? If it can't, then anything short of an all-out invasion is useless.

And, what happens when/if you capture Noumea? Where do Allied reinforcements appear?

[IChristie]

It could, theoretically, be bombed into being out of commission but not by the assets I have available which amount to about 35 bombers at a base that is overburdened as it is (so no more can be added).

Consider the fact that Noumea is probably home now, to 150+ fighters and 150+ bombers and that it is a size 9 airbase. The CAP and flak would probably destroy or damage all of my bomber force in about 3 days and Port Vila already has 60 planes waiting to be repaired.

Just for comparison, As the allied player I once shut down Rabaul (also size 9 at the time) by flying every heavy bomber I had (and 2 groups of B-25's) out of Gili Gili for 10 straight days around the clock with P-38 escorts. Probably about 800 to 1200 sorties by B-17's and B-24's in total. I don't have anywhere near that amount of firepower on hand. It also took daily raids of the same size to keep it out of commission.

[Toro]

Just wondering on the Noumea/Truk concept. My thoughts wandered to the possibilities of even being able to damage or capture these bases. If they are considered "untouchable" for supply purposes, then are they untouchable for damage or capture purposes, too?

Also, is the range from Noumea to L'ville too far for Allied SBDs? You've noted that Allied LRB are poor anti-shipping shooters, which helps protect your fleet.

In either case, someone earlier said they thought you'd taken "an island too far," and I'm thinking maybe so. If shooting for the auto-victory, then L'ville can probably be used as a screen to others you've taken which can suffice for that victory condition, but had the game continued beyond this, L'ville is a lossing gamble. Enter that "game vs reality" debate, again.

[IChristie]

L'Ville (my fingers thank you for that abbreviation) is too far for SBD's but apparently not for Avengers which scared me at first, but then I realized the Avengers were dropping bombs, meaning it must be in their "extended" range, at which range they can't carry torpedoes (thank heavens).

If you check the map you will find that L'ville is actually the base that the others are screeing. Koumac is at the northern end of New Caledoni and Port Vila is the next island group South of L'ville.

In point of fact, I am now of the opinion that I could have carried off this whole operation by landing at Port Vila and Koumac and just starving the Marines out of L'ville. I don't know that the ground presence there as actually accomplished anything. I probably could have kept the LCU safe in Truk until around now and then launched the offensive (Mr. Mogami is not chortling a hearty "I told you so" I'm sure.

And actually both Koumac and Port Vila are essential to the operation. Port Vila gives me command of the sea lanes around L'Ville and Koumac is currently diverting about 60% of US LBA power to pounding it's airfield into gravel, which is fine by me, since I'm not using it.

[Toro]

If you're thinking L'ville might have been too much, and P Vila and Koumea would have sufficed, what about withdrawing? How are your troops hanging in at L'ville? Would supply be easier, less risky? You can still bomb/shell L'ville without the troops around. In addition, I would imagine withdrawal of troops from a non-held or contested base is much riskier and time-consuming, and should you have to react quickly...

But, the other side of this coin concerns what are the effects of a contested base? Does it reduce the Allied use of that base at all? If not, then I believe you may be right when you indicated your troops may not be serving you well there.

When you're done with this, it would be interesting to see the reactions of the AI had you gone for Cooktown.