Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I've been pleasantly surprised in my second game at how well the little Dutch bombers (Falcons esp.) do when I pay attention to training, and put them all at Soerbaja with limited ranges and good support. The code seems to target them almost exclusively onto xAKLs, and not suicides on passing CAs, and their tiny bombs of fury can do in an xAKL traveling alone or with a PB. In my first game I pretty much gave up on the Dutch air forces as a time sink, but with good pilots, and low-altitudes, they've done at least OK.

Yeah, I trained the Dutch for many weeks after the war began, then sent them to Soerabaja. Every few turns I set them to naval attack. I think they've scored seven or eight hits on xAK and xAKL now.

[BBfanboy]

Maybe Chickenboy is right and they are retiring back to the Home Islands. Don't they get a bunch of AA and ASW upgrades at the beginning of March, and some newer model aircraft for the carriers?

[Grfin Zeppelin]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Maybe Chickenboy is right and they are retiring back to the Home Islands. Don't they get a bunch of AA and ASW upgrades at the beginning of March, and some newer model aircraft for the carriers?

Shokaku/Zuikaku upgrades are in June and the other 4 upgrade in July. There are also no new airframes at this time for the Japanese carriers.Some destroyers upgrade at this time but nothing serious.

[Canoerebel]

Even if upgrades were available, Brad wouldn't take the time for those now. Japan is at its maximum military advantage, now, and he's not going to fritter away this opportunity. Things are quiet from my perspective, but that's because I only see my part of the map. Behind enemy lines, one or more massive forces is organzing and preparing to move into Allied territory. I can't provide evidence, but I'll guarantee it.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Even if upgrades were available, Brad wouldn't take the time for those now. Japan is at its maximum military advantage, now, and he's not going to fritter away this opportunity. Things are quiet from my perspective, but that's because I only see my part of the map. Behind enemy lines, one or more massive forces is organzing and preparing to move into Allied territory. I can't provide evidence, but I'll guarantee it.

Pfft...you're such a cynic.[;)]

[Canoerebel]

3/3/42 and 3/4/42

And so it begins....

India: Patrols report a sizeable Japanese carrier TF plus another TF of unknown composition on a southerly course well to the east of Ceylon and due south of Port Blair. Given the lcoation, the most likely target is Ceylon, followed by Diego Garcia or possibly Addu Atoll. The mainland is of lesser likelihood since Brad would surely seize one or more of those three first. It's too late to make major moves, but I can do a few things: (1) evacuate all shipping from the area (actually, I had begun doing so about three days ago realizing that with the fall of Port Blair anything could happen and soon); (2) set all bombers and fighters to appropriate settings; (3) move aircraft from distant locales to bases where they can be called on if needed; and (4) move two transport squadrons to the theater in case I need to engage in evacuation of cadres.

Ceylon: Strength here is 1,000 AV. Enough to stop anything except a huge commitment, but not such a huge commitment that I risk losing too much if the Japanese do bring the kitchen sink. The force is distributed: 650 at Colombo (four forts), 200 at Trincomalee (3 forts) and the rest are at the three smaller bases. I'm might glad I made the decision to commit the second Aussie brigade to India, even though the units are currently at Calcutta and of no help to Ceylon.

Diego Garcia: The garrison consists of engineers and an Indian brigade - 100 AV. A bunch of engineers aboard transports recently departed Aden bound for Diego; I'll recall them if this turns out to be the Japanese target.

Allied Carriers: Remain at Capetown awaiting arrival of Hornet in four days. I will not sortie them - they are here to serve only in the event of the most dire emergency - like the possiblity of India falling. Their main duty is to remain hidden and serve as a force in being.

Oz: Quiet. Lady Liza (Queen Elizabeth) finished unloading and has been withdrawn. This is an important boost to morale - I would hate to lose her and she just completed two high speed runs from San Diego to Oz carrying goodly parts of two RCT. I've divided 41st Infantry Division, at San Diego, into three compenents. I "paid" for the first and the troops are boarding transports bound for Australia (this was done on the 3rd, the turn before I sighted the menace to India; but I probably wouldn't have changed things anyhow).

Hawaii: Blessedly quiet. RO-67 did claim a supply xAK at Canton Island, but the reinforcing unit is ashore.

Sub Wars: O-23 claimed a PB near Koepang. Allied ASW aircraft seem to be doing their job on the West Coast. This is my first success in pilot training.

Japanese Advances: Guam falls on the 3rd.

Allied Reinforcement Que: Aden gets a British division sometime in the next month. San Fran gets 32nd Division (assigned to SWPac) in about 38 days. This unit likely goes to Oz. Two Marine regiments arrive at San Diego within a month. They probably go to Hawaii unless developments confirm that these islands are relatively safe from attack.

[Cribtop]

Oh, boy. This should be interesting. Any thought he will have a second invasion teed up for the Calcutta area? KB could shepherd in an attack on Ceylon and then quickly react across the Bay of Bengal to cover a move there. My rationale is that Ceylon is, long term, a blocking move. Calcutta gives Q-Ball the chance to destroy LCUs and really delay the Burma counterattack.

Plus, I sense he has achieved what he wants in Oz, namely the NW and NE coasts. He will take a bit more, but from both positions he can already block likely avenues of approach to the Imperial perimeter. The same can be argued for Ceylon. My point is, either he's just trying to give you longer routes to the SRA or he's after more. To me the most likely "more" is bagging the defenders currently at Imphal and Akyab. I still suspect he is playing for an expanded perimeter on all these fronts as the minimum case, with a potential best case of dealing such a blow to the UK that a Burma axis is relegated to late 43 or even 44.

[JohnDillworth]

Same post in both AAR's:
Boy I love 2 sided AAR's!!

[JohnDillworth]

What picked them up, pickets or Partol aircraft? How far out and did you have search arcs set or just left the default? Any good subs around? These should have working torpedoes.
Good luck!!

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Oh, boy. This should be interesting. Any thought he will have a second invasion teed up for the Calcutta area? KB could shepherd in an attack on Ceylon and then quickly react across the Bay of Bengal to cover a move there. My rationale is that Ceylon is, long term, a blocking move. Calcutta gives Q-Ball the chance to destroy LCUs and really delay the Burma counterattack.

Plus, I sense he has achieved what he wants in Oz, namely the NW and NE coasts. He will take a bit more, but from both positions he can already block likely avenues of approach to the Imperial perimeter. The same can be argued for Ceylon. My point is, either he's just trying to give you longer routes to the SRA or he's after more. To me the most likely "more" is bagging the defenders currently at Imphal and Akyab. I still suspect he is playing for an expanded perimeter on all these fronts as the minimum case, with a potential best case of dealing such a blow to the UK that a Burma axis is relegated to late 43 or even 44.

He's got a few problems if he's shooting for NE India. First, an Aussie division just arrived at Calcutta. Second, the Burma Army is 75% back to the main line of defense, including Calcutta. No chance of it getting cut off now. It's part of the MLR. A few more days and that 75% will be 85%.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
What picked them up, pickets or Partol aircraft? How far out and did you have search arcs set or just left the default? Any good subs around? These should have working torpedoes.
Good luck!!

I'm not sure what picked them up, but they were spotted at long distance. They just "appeared" on the map. Probably patrol aircraft out of Diego or Colombo, though I haven't checked range to see if that's possible. No search arcs are set; all patrol aircraft are set to normal range.

[Canoerebel]

Will post more later, but the IJN carriers moved in and roughed up a few small craft. The whole shebang - Akagi, Soryu, Zuikaku, Shokaku, Kaga, Hiryu, Ryujoh, Zuiho, etc. is present and just a few hexes off Ceylon's east coast.

[Canoerebel]

3/5/42

What I Know: This is the real thing. The IJ force includes all carriers (Akagi, Kaga, Soryu, Hiryu, Shokaku, Zuikaku, Ryujo, Shoho, and Zuiho). I need to check the roster to see if any are missing. Cursor says there are two main TFs with a total of 189 fighters, 313 bombers, and 221 auxilliary. The carriers and several other TFs are just east of Ceylon.

What I Don't Know: The target. In all likelihood it's Koggala on the eastern tip of Ceylon, but we'll see. There's also another transport TF well to the northeast of Ceylon. I'm not sure what's it's doing way out their like a split-end.

Combat: The Japanese launched waves of strike aircraft that destroyed a KV and two xAKL. The Allies launched a escort-heavy strike (72 Hurricanes, ten Swordfish) vs. the KB that accomplished nothing. A force of Hudsons and Blenheims from Madras damaged an xAK with the split-end group.

Brad's Dilemma: That he brought all his carriers tells me he's worried about the Allied carriers. He also has to fret over the wastage of mission sorties against small craft. He'll want to get ashore and develop LBA asap.

Allied Carriers: No way I want to take on the KB, so I'm happy to leave my carriers in Capetown. When they don't show up to contest the invasion, Brad should conclude they are elsewhere, which ought to make him cautious about SoPac, CenPac, and NoPac. I would like that very much.

Elsewhere: If this is the real thing, it pretty much eliminates the threat to Oz and Hawaii. By the time Brad could mount another major action with carriers in support, months will have passed, reinforcements will have arrived, and the opportunities will have faded into darkness. On the other hand, I don't want to get too frisky. It's still very early. If I carry men too far forward I risk having them isolated by arrival of the KB. So I don't think I want to risk reinforcing Suva. Instead, I think I'll shoot for bolstering the Line Islands just a bit, plus attention to the Western Aleutians as soon as I have troops available.

Sub Wars: A small transport TF with DD escort battled two subs (I-19 and I-5) near San Fran. The subs missed and were counterattacked. The presence of escorts makes all the difference in the world.

[BrucePowers]

I have long since learned that in both WITP and AE unescorted ships will eventually equal a lot of sunk ships.[:)]

As in WWI just establishing convoys helps cut down on the target rich environment.

[Canoerebel]

In the real World War II, the Americans ended up using small, unescorted convoys. I did the same thing in my first PBEM game vs. Miller and got my lunch, dinner, breakfast, snacks, deserts, and daydreams handed to me. I changed tactics, but not before getting creamed.

So I adopted a different strategy in this game. All troop and fuel convoys get an escort. Any surplus escorts go to supply convoys. It's working like a charm, though many other factors could be entering into the equation.

[Cribtop]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Oh, boy. This should be interesting. Any thought he will have a second invasion teed up for the Calcutta area? KB could shepherd in an attack on Ceylon and then quickly react across the Bay of Bengal to cover a move there. My rationale is that Ceylon is, long term, a blocking move. Calcutta gives Q-Ball the chance to destroy LCUs and really delay the Burma counterattack.

Plus, I sense he has achieved what he wants in Oz, namely the NW and NE coasts. He will take a bit more, but from both positions he can already block likely avenues of approach to the Imperial perimeter. The same can be argued for Ceylon. My point is, either he's just trying to give you longer routes to the SRA or he's after more. To me the most likely "more" is bagging the defenders currently at Imphal and Akyab. I still suspect he is playing for an expanded perimeter on all these fronts as the minimum case, with a potential best case of dealing such a blow to the UK that a Burma axis is relegated to late 43 or even 44.

He's got a few problems if he's shooting for NE India. First, an Aussie division just arrived at Calcutta. Second, the Burma Army is 75% back to the main line of defense, including Calcutta. No chance of it getting cut off now. It's part of the MLR. A few more days and that 75% will be 85%.

I agree that you are well prepared for a move in this direction. It shows the wisdom of getting your troops out of Burma. Question is, does Q-Ball know that? If so, what else could he and that split end force be up to?

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

3/5/42

What I Know: This is the real thing. The IJ force includes all carriers (Akagi, Kaga, Soryu, Hiryu, Shokaku, Zuikaku, Ryujo, Shoho, and Zuiho). I need to check the roster to see if any are missing. Cursor says there are two main TFs with a total of 189 fighters, 313 bombers, and 221 auxilliary. The carriers and several other TFs are just east of Ceylon.

What I Don't Know: The target. In all likelihood it's Koggala on the eastern tip of Ceylon, but we'll see. There's also another transport TF well to the northeast of Ceylon. I'm not sure what's it's doing way out their like a split-end.

Combat: The Japanese launched waves of strike aircraft that destroyed a KV and two xAKL. The Allies launched a escort-heavy strike (72 Hurricanes, ten Swordfish) vs. the KB that accomplished nothing. A force of Hudsons and Blenheims from Madras damaged an xAK with the split-end group.

Brad's Dilemma: That he brought all his carriers tells me he's worried about the Allied carriers. He also has to fret over the wastage of mission sorties against small craft. He'll want to get ashore and develop LBA asap.

Allied Carriers: No way I want to take on the KB, so I'm happy to leave my carriers in Capetown. When they don't show up to contest the invasion, Brad should conclude they are elsewhere, which ought to make him cautious about SoPac, CenPac, and NoPac. I would like that very much.

Elsewhere: If this is the real thing, it pretty much eliminates the threat to Oz and Hawaii. By the time Brad could mount another major action with carriers in support, months will have passed, reinforcements will have arrived, and the opportunities will have faded into darkness. On the other hand, I don't want to get too frisky. It's still very early. If I carry men too far forward I risk having them isolated by arrival of the KB. So I don't think I want to risk reinforcing Suva. Instead, I think I'll shoot for bolstering the Line Islands just a bit, plus attention to the Western Aleutians as soon as I have troops available.

Sub Wars: A small transport TF with DD escort battled two subs (I-19 and I-5) near San Fran. The subs missed and were counterattacked. The presence of escorts makes all the difference in the world.

Wouldn't this be an opportune time to invade the Kuriles!!!!!

[8D]

[Nemo121]

Or the Central Pacific.... There are a number of islands there which aren't atolls and can be taken by even unprepped forces.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
I agree that you are well prepared for a move in this direction. It shows the wisdom of getting your troops out of Burma. Question is, does Q-Ball know that? If so, what else could he and that split end force be up to?

Brad watched as my troops withdrew in Burma without putting up a fight. A few of his units of his watched from the tail end as they advanced to take vacant cities. So he should know the Burma Army is gone.

So I have no idea what that split-end force might be for. The only reason for it to be out there is if it was taking a chance that Akyab, Cox's Bazaar, or Vizagapetum was lightly garrisoned and worthy of a snap invasion. The first two are lightly held, but Viz has more than 100 AV.

As for the Allied making hay where the sun is shining - places very distant from Ceylon - I need to be careful. We're so early in the game that there will be plenty of time for Brad to shift the KB to the Pacific to isolate and then destroy anything he chooses. So I don't want to stick my neck out too far, creating a juicy target that will end up becoming a prisoner of war camp. He has four extra infantry divisions to use in Scenario Two.

I guarantee that Brad will visit Midway before the year is up, but that already has it's maximum defensive garrison.

I will send some units to the Western Aleutians; enough to make it a challenge to take.

I'll bolster the garrisons on Johnston, Palmyra, Canton, and the American Samoa region (especially there).

If things are quiet long enough for reinforcements to arrive, I'll look at places like Baker Island and some of the islands to the south.

New Zealand will get troops if I have any to send.

And once I am dead sure Brad has focused on India, I will see about reclaiming the bases in northeast Oz.

[Canoerebel]

3/6/42

Japanese Invasion: Most of the Japanese carrier TFs are adjacent to Colombo, while some carriers and apparently the amphibious ships are just north of Trincomalee. SigInt says 10th Division is prepping for Jaffa, the port on Ceylon's west coast. That appears to be the likely target. Once Brad commits to a beach, I'll probably pull everyone back to Colombo, where the Allies should have about 1,000 AV behind four forts.

Combats: Japanese naval air sortied in fair numbers, sinking a KV and four coastal craft at a cost of at least 28 Vals downed, mostly by flak. Assuming Brad doesn't know where my carriers are he's got to be chewing nails as mission sorties climb. The Allies have come out decidely on the short end of air combat, but the numbers involved aren't significant.

Escapes: Allied ships are fleeing the scene up India's west coast. The laggards are still in the danger zone, but it's a hodge-podge of coastal ships and other small stuff. All the big stuff fled the area about a week ago.

Likely Outcome: If Brad's coming, he's surely bringing the kitchen sink. So the Allies are almost sure to lose Ceylon, but it will take some time I hope to put to use to protect the rest of India. In 25 days, an Indian division arrives at Madras, and three UK brigades and the stripped 70th Division arrive at Aden.

Small Stuff: I-162 tangled with two KV near Trivandrum to no effect. KXVI nailed a troop-carrying xAK near Ambon. Plunger got an xAKL off Toyohara. To this point, the Allies are winning the sub wars, which is a 180-degree flip from my previous game. Miller had some mojo.