Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar

[IdahoNYer]

Mynok - yeah, well....when you go about 5 months with little or no activity, you can really stock up on the old APs! That was the one big drawback to halting offensive operations - giving the Sovs a great opportunity to transition their army. However, its still going to be a few more months until the industry goes into high gear.

Frankly, I'm scarred as hell of the damn infantry corps....especially when defending in stacks. Very, very hard to penetrate. And they pack a whallop when attacking!

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 84; Jan 21, 1943...Blizzard

Looks as though the front may be stabilizing. Soviets failed to rescue their isolated elements, and both Tank Corps and a tank brigade were destroyed. Numerous Soviet attacks to rescue their comrades were repulsed, resulting in very heavy soviet losses. In most areas, the Soviets are back to their start lines, or within 10 miles of them.

That's the good news....

The bad news is that the panzer divisions are in pretty bad shape, many with 50 or so panzers remaining. If the Soviet continues to press his attacks, things might get ugly fast.

Along the front, 2nd Army's position is probably the weakest. 2nd Pz Armee, with 2xPzKps, holds the northern shoulder of the Kursk bulge, is in pretty good shape. 2nd Pz Div is replaced by 19th Pz Div which is sent to recover in 3rd Pz Armee's AO. 6th Army pulls back a few square miles, but for the most part, retains its fortified lines. 4th Pz Armee moves into the line, and creates a bullward of concentrated forces where the current most dangerous Soviet attack is likely. This could get expensive if he attacks, but I figure he'll look for easier avenues after the losses he's sustained. 2nd Hungarian's frontage is reduced, and seems to be in pretty good shape. 17th Army is untouched, but possesses no real reserves to counter any major thrust.

Further to the south, the Soviets did not attack 1st Pz Armee, but rather seemed to consolidate.

Overall, its been an interesting month of attack and counterattack. While the Soviets have been bloodied, so have the panzers. With some luck, he'll give me a few weeks to rest and refit the panzer divisions before resuming the attack.

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 87; Feb 11, 1943...blizzard and snow mix

Looks like the front has indeed stabilized. Scar has pulled pack his attack forces and all offensive operations have ceased for the last three weeks. I have decided to hold the current positions, including the 6th Army's Kursk Salient. With some luck I can hold these positions through the mud season. Perhaps, just perhaps, he's played out for the winter.

Not a bad thing in my book. I can now focus on rebuilding the panzerwaffe.

Construction has also begun on some rearward positions, including the vaunted "Eastern Rampart" that traces the Dniepr from Mogilev south to the Dniepr bend - being constucted by the Luftwaffe Field Divs as well as the Axis Allies. The "Bryansk Line" is also being dug behind the 4th and 2nd Armies - being constructed by a Korps of 3xIN Divs. The "Volkov Line" is already at level 4 fortifications protecting Leningrad along the Volkov River, which is also occupied by the uncommitted 18th Army (I don't trust the Finns combat ability right now).

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 90; Mar 4, 1943....Snow

No action along the front. Soviet offensive units have been pulled off the line. The only thing of note is that German casualties reach the 2 million mark!

[IdahoNYer]

And Forces available Mar 4, 1943. Soviet tank production starting to arrive - Up from about 4000 to 6000 tanks since the beginning of the year. So much for parity.....

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 91; Mar 11, 1943...Blizzard

A late winter Soviet offensive begins against the Finns. 8 Soviet armies using massed Rifle Corps attacks push the Finnish IV and VI Corps back 10 miles despite level 4 fortifications. Depsite weekly recon flights, this concentration of Soviet troops went undetected, and the attack was a surprise this late in the winter.

This is where I originally expected the Soviet winter offensive to strike, starting the Volkov Line early on "just in case". The Finnish troops are tired of being away from Finland and their morale reflects this. However, when the Soviets struck toward Kursk, I thought the Finns would be spared until the Summer offensive season.

There is not much we're going to do to stop attacks from 3xRifle Corps against a single defending brigade, regardless of the morale or fortifications of the defenders. The Soviets are going to press forward, albiet slowly.

So we'll give ground slowly. I've brought down the Finnish Armored Div from position in reserve to the north, and the 16th Army's mobile reserve, the 36th Mot Div, to the shoulders of the attack in case the Soviets try and exploit the attack with tank brigades.

Due to the late winter/early spring timeframe, General Mud will likely terminate this offensive rather than any great Axis generalship.

The remainder of the front remains quiet, with no indication of any Soviet attacks.

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 92; Mar 18, 1943...mix Snow and Blizzard

Soviets expand thier offensive against the Finns to include the northern Korps of the German 16th Army. As with the previous week, massed Soivet Rifle Corps attacks are largely successful, but gains are limited. The newly introduced Guards Airborne Corps is bloodily repulsed is the only exception.

Just waiting for General Mud to arrive and close down the offensive. Rest of front remains quiet.

[Mynok]

You're still in fine shape for 43. Just get those panzers refitting fast. You'll need them to whack on his exploiting tank corps. They are very vulnerable to that.

Rifle corps are walking death. And he has a bunch. That's your main problem. Your only hope is that they are slow and can only grind it out. The bad news is that they will and you will suffer massive casualties when they do.

[IdahoNYer]

Mynok - Panzers refitting pretty quickly - just taking a big experience hit when they gain the replacements. Can't do anything about it of course.

Rifle Corps are very nasty - already found that out. Especially when stacked.

Will have to draw him out in order to launch a successful counterattack. Lot of risk involved with, but otherwise I'll just be ground to death.

[Scook_99]

I think you are in tremendous shape as Germany! Seeing your 3 million man army, and he is only at 6 million at March '43 is good news. Just be patient and hope he get impatient and over-extends.

[IdahoNYer]

Scook - the trick is going to be to give Scar the "opportunity" to over-extend that isn't too damn obvious, and then be able to cut off and isolate that overextention and kill it.

With the power of the Rifle Corps in 1943, he can push through a limited 1-2 hex deep encirclement. Cutting off and killing his tank corps spearhead is going to be dicey. Very dicey.

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 95; 8 Apr, 1943.....snow and mud.

Soviets continue their attack against the Finns and 16th Army - pushing them back about 10m each week. Casualties are heavy, and equal, for both sides.

I was hoping for General Mud to take some initiative, arrive on the scene, and bring a halt to the offensive. Well, mud has appreared everywhere but the North Soviet Zone! Ugh!

Time for plan B. The Finnish IV Corps looks about done, and I really don't want to sacrifice the Syas River line prior to mud. Nor the fortifications east of Nebolichi. To hold that line, I commit the rested 18th Army (garrisoning the Volkov Line some 80 miles to the west) into the line. They arrive via rail and take positions between the Finns and the 16th Army. This "should" dissuade the Soviets from continuing their attack west.

Hopefully, I'll be able to pull them back to the Volkov Line once mud begins. Not sure about that right now. 16th Army is becoming stretched and the Finns' morale is becoming very problematic.

Elsewhere the front remains quiet. Panzer Divisions continue to rest and refit. All good...

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 96; Apr 14, 1943....mud, snow and clear

Well, its mud where it counts, North Soviet Zone....

As hoped, the Soviets curtailed their offensive when 18th Army arrived on the (hopefully) last snow turn. Only one attack against an 16th Army IN Div. Now General Mud should hold off the Soviets for a few weeks.

Recon flights show many of the Soviet units (presumably Rifle Corps) pulled off the line already. I think he is done here.

The question now becomes, "Where is the next main effort going to strike?" And of course, when...how much time to dig and prepare?

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 101; May 20, 1943....Mud

Mud finally looks like its clearing across the front. Been a good respite. We are about as ready as we'll ever be.

18th Army remains in the line between the Finns and 16th Army. The Finnish morale at this point won't hold back a major Soviet attack. While I don't think he'll push hard here in the summer, we'll fall back to the Volkov Line once the position becomes untenable. Not a good place for a panzer counter attack

The remainder of AGN is dug in, and waits any Soviet attack. Tough terrain will limit both Soviet advance, and the chance of a major counterattack. This will be a meat grinder if he attacks north of Moscow.

AGC focuses on its north and southern boundaries with its Panzer Armies. 4th and 2nd Armies are dug in and will grudgingly give ground, the panzers will counter the thrusts.

AGB holds a salient with 6th Army, ready to pull back if necessary. AGB is probably the most heavily defended portion of the entire front, and also one of th few areas that as it is forced to withdraw, can shorten its lines

AGA on the southern end is stretched a bit to the Sea of Azov, but 1st Pz Armee packs a good punch. Construction continues on the Eastern Rampart along the Dniepr, with focus on the Dniepr Bend and south to the Sea of Azov. 4th Rum Army holds the Crimea, backed with a German Korps. If I had to bet where the Soviets were to attack in force, it would be in 17th Army's area. Good place to tear open the German front....

OKH reserves include the II SS PzKps of three SS Divs, about 6xIN Divs and a Tiger Bn, 2x Panther Bns, and the 2xHv JgPz Bns. Once the Soviets tip his hand, we'll commit this force to lead the counter attack. For now, its sitting near Warsaw.

My bet is that the Soviets start up the Steamroller at the end of Jun. Air recon has picked up some artillery across from Kerch, but no serious tank or artillery concentrations along the main front. He still hasn't shown his hand.

[IdahoNYer]

To counter whatever the Soviets throw at us in 1943, we've assembled a fairly robust panzerwaffe....of over 6000 AFVs available at the Front (yes, 6000!!!) over 4000 are in the panzer, panzergrenadier and motorized divisions. This includes over 800 Panther Ds (guess I do have to patch now...).

The challenge will be to allow the Soviets some "success" where I can effectively counterattack to not only defeat his main attacking force, but destroy it - giving me the abililty to hold him east of the Dniepr throughout the year. That's going to be tough, but with over 6000 AFVs, at least there is a chance.

[IdahoNYer]

Forces available towards the end of May 43 don't look too bad. 3.4 million Germans are still in pretty good shape. 6000 AFVs are only about 1300 less than the Soviets, although his tank strength is starting to ramp up. As are his guns. Despite his very large airpower edge, I'm still getting very good kill ratios.

Scar has a tough decision ahead of him - When to launch the attack? Does he keep waiting for 10k AFVs - which will give me more time to dig, or strike early, using the infantry corps as a bludgeon?

He's going to have to exploit any attacks if he wants to drive me out of Mother Russia by the end of 1944. That should provide some opportunity.

[IdahoNYer]

Lastly, the losses as of May 20 1943.

2.1 million Axis losses is certainly severe, but so far, not crippling. The 6.7 million Soviet losses helps. We'll see if we can push him over the 10 million mark before New Year's 1944!

For air losses, he's lost almost 30k vs my 4k. Not complaining here at all.

[Klydon]

10k aircraft. That is a lot of beer cans and cloth! [:D]

Interesting. The way this one is going, I don't think the Russians are going to make the end of the war party in Berlin in time.

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 107; Jul 1, 1943....clear weather across the front.

Looks like the Soviet Steamroller is starting to move. Second turn of attacks. Screen shot shows Soviet attacks, before German moves.

Heavy pressure on Finns with Rifle Corps attacks. Battering ram style. Location of attacks have moved slightly north, focusing on the Finns exclusively, rather than either the German 16th or 18th Army. Casualties heavy for both sides. I'm bringing two German infantry Divs via sea transport to Leningrad to assist in the Volkov line defenses, and the Finns are preparing a defensive line along the "no attack line" as fallback positions.

The plan here is to continue to slowly fall back, keeping the force intact, to prepared positions. This will effectively split the Finns from the Germans of course when the Soviets reach Lake Lagoda. With some luck, that will take a few weeks or maybe the entire Summer.

Can't really do much against these Rifle Corps attacks - except bleed them to death while slowly giving ground.

[IdahoNYer]

Further south, the Soviets almost, just almost, achieve some solid success. One failed attack saves the 6th Army from having the XVII Korps encircled!

Against 4th Pz Armee, the Soviets make little headway and are rebuffed in one fight losing over 12,000 men to the German's 1000! That's what a level 4 fortification can do if adequately defended - in this case with a panzer and panzergrenadier division.

6th Army will fall back to the base of the salient as planned. III PzKps will attack the Soviet spearhead of two tank and a cavalry corps to blunt the attack, but there is no chance to encirle a spearhead. This will be the debut of the Panther in combat!

4th Pz Armee will continue to defend heavily in front of Belgorod - will be interesting if Scar tries to batter this down, or shift to easier ground to attack.

The area that he is attacking here is really the only area of the front very heavily defended - level 4 fortifications with 2 very well rested german divisions per hex in most places - including panzer divs. Falling back shortens the front to prepared positions. The target, I'm assuming, are the cities of Kursk, Belgorod and Kharkov.

Still, I'm surprised that he is attacking here - really expected it either to the north across from Tula or further down south toward the Sea of Azov.