War in the Pacific as the Japanese Planned It

[herwin]

November 30/December 1 1942

My opponent is looking forward to an upgrade of his ASW. I'm looking forward to a doubling of my torpedo pHit.

A generally quiet turn.

Allied air losses: 21; Japanese: 19. 8 ops losses of C47s at Terapo.

[herwin]

December 1/2 1942

A very quiet turn.

The Chinese eject the Japanese from Myitkyina.

Ground combat at Myitkyina (64,42)
 
Allied Deliberate attack
 
Attacking force 19935 troops, 64 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 677
 
Defending force 4135 troops, 26 guns, 71 vehicles, Assault Value = 155
 
Allied adjusted assault: 349
 
Japanese adjusted defense: 76
 
Allied assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 0)
 
Allied forces CAPTURE Myitkyina !!!
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), preparation(-), fatigue(-)
Attacker:
 
Japanese ground losses:
      1274 casualties reported
         Squads: 26 destroyed, 13 disabled
         Non Combat: 44 destroyed, 8 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Guns lost 11 (8 destroyed, 3 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 49 (48 destroyed, 1 disabled)
      Units retreated 2
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      755 casualties reported
         Squads: 3 destroyed, 62 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Allied air losses:3; Japanese: 11

[herwin]

December 2/3 1942

Allied air losses: 8; Japanese: 6. Time for a CAP trap.

Bassein back to the Japanese. The Chinese head down the RR to Shwebo.

[herwin]

December 3/4 1942

After the next turn, we'll be testing a beta version that hopes to address the night operations problem.

Two Japanese tank divisions overrun an Indian brigade. Question for the readers--did the Japanese actually run tank divisions in Burma? None of my books mention them.

OK, the 1st Tank Division was created in Manchuria in June 1942 and was part of the garrison there. The 2nd Tank Division was also part of the Manchurian garrison and was created in March 1942. The 3rd Tank Division was created in Mongolia in June 1942 and was part of the North China Area Army. The 4th Tank Division was created in 1944. I've been ignoring the Burma border with my Indian and Chinese forces; it's fair he can, too. That explains the tank forces I've been encountering, though.

Ground combat at 57,48 (near Magwe)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 12623 troops, 261 guns, 812 vehicles, Assault Value = 585
 
Defending force 3190 troops, 6 guns, 44 vehicles, Assault Value = 128
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 906
 
Allied adjusted defense: 1
 
Japanese assault odds: 906 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(+), disruption(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      201 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 20 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
      Guns lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      1554 casualties reported
         Squads: 119 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 35 destroyed, 89 disabled
         Engineers: 18 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Guns lost 5 (5 destroyed, 0 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 56 (14 destroyed, 42 disabled)
      Units retreated 1
 
 
Defeated Allied Units Retreating!
 
Assaulting units:
    1st Tank Division
    2nd Tank Division
 
Defending units:
    44th Indian Brigade

Allied air losses: 10; Japanese: 18.

[herwin]

December 4/5 1942

This will be the last turn played with the beta we currently know and love. Next turn will be an alpha test of the beta under development to address the night bombing exploit.

I have a BB-led heavy SAG hanging out off Portland Roads with LRCAP on call. It's a deliberate Betty/Nell trap.

33 B-24s hit Rangoon at night, reportedly killing two Tonies (actually none) and four Helens (actually five).

Allied air losses: 7; Japanese: 12.

That's all for the night action. That's good shooting.

Three tank division equivalents try to overrun a British corps south of Toungoo. The shock attack produces  2-1 odds, nil damage for the Japanese, 3100 Indian casualties, and a retreat. Why bother fixing air and naval when land operations are so broken?

Ground combat at 56,51 (near Toungoo)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 1152 troops, 0 guns, 226 vehicles, Assault Value = 460
 
Defending force 10249 troops, 162 guns, 223 vehicles, Assault Value = 138
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 172
 
Allied adjusted defense: 85
 
Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), fatigue(-), experience(-)
 supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      Vehicles lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      3110 casualties reported
         Squads: 128 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 195 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Engineers: 16 destroyed, 1 disabled
      Guns lost 45 (45 destroyed, 0 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 56 (56 destroyed, 0 disabled)
      Units retreated 2
 
 
Defeated Allied Units Retreating!
 
Assaulting units:
    3rd Tank Regiment
    11th Tank Regiment
    18th/B Division
    18th/A Division
    14th Tank Regiment
    18th/C Division
 
Defending units:
    23rd Indian Division
    26th Indian Division

Japanese shock attack at Hankow. This is also badly broken.

Ground combat at Hankow (85,50)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 101961 troops, 797 guns, 130 vehicles, Assault Value = 2378
 
Defending force 48736 troops, 289 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 765
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 2529
 
Allied adjusted defense: 2157
 
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
 supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      7424 casualties reported
         Squads: 74 destroyed, 388 disabled
         Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 100 disabled
         Engineers: 19 destroyed, 52 disabled
      Vehicles lost 8 (1 destroyed, 7 disabled)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      2103 casualties reported
         Squads: 59 destroyed, 128 disabled
         Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 11 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
      Guns lost 27 (2 destroyed, 25 disabled)

If you remember my whining from the beginning of the year, the outcome of the land combat engine is almost the reverse of what actually occurred. That is, recorded game casualty results populate the part of outcome space that you almost never see outcomes in actual battle data--and vice versa.

[herwin]

December 5/6 1942

Alpha test of fix for night bombing exploit.

Night attack by 32 TBFs destroys a Jake on the ground.

Night attack by 35 B-24s on Rangoon destroys twelve Helens.

Nanning falls.

Allied air losses: 10; Japanese: 15.

[herwin]

December 6/7 1942

Second alpha test.

End of the first year of war.

Allied losses: 13; Japanese: 9. Four aircraft destroyed on the ground.

Ground combat at 80,54 (near Hengyang)
 
Allied Deliberate attack
 
Attacking force 58859 troops, 269 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1732
 
Defending force 13364 troops, 112 guns, 24 vehicles, Assault Value = 428
 
Allied adjusted assault: 1228
 
Japanese adjusted defense: 331
 
Allied assault odds: 3 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(+)
Attacker:
 
Japanese ground losses:
      5551 casualties reported
         Squads: 112 destroyed, 144 disabled
         Non Combat: 68 destroyed, 47 disabled
         Engineers: 6 destroyed, 9 disabled
      Guns lost 39 (17 destroyed, 22 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 5 (3 destroyed, 2 disabled)
      Units retreated 1
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      1000 casualties reported
         Squads: 31 destroyed, 241 disabled
         Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 18 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 26 disabled
      Guns lost 36 (5 destroyed, 31 disabled)
 
 
Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!
 
Assaulting units:
    63rd Chinese Corps
    74th Chinese Corps
    46th Chinese Corps
    10th Chinese Corps
    65th Chinese Corps
    25th Chinese Corps
    11th Construction Regiment
    12th Group Army
    29th Group Army
 
Defending units:
    104th Division

SC collides with TK near Pago Pago.

[herwin]

December 7/8 1942

No night aircraft casualties.

Allied air losses: 5; Japanese: 9.

Japanese attack by tanks in the jungle. (Yes, just so, but then I play OCS Burma, where that sort of thing is regarded as completely unreal.)

Ground combat at Toungoo (57,50)
 
Japanese Deliberate attack
 
Attacking force 30399 troops, 245 guns, 333 vehicles, Assault Value = 979
 
Defending force 25851 troops, 498 guns, 509 vehicles, Assault Value = 420
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 478
 
Allied adjusted defense: 237
 
Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 0)
 
Japanese forces CAPTURE Toungoo !!!
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), disruption(-), preparation(-)
 experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:
 
Japanese ground losses:
      484 casualties reported
         Squads: 1 destroyed, 40 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
      Vehicles lost 15 (3 destroyed, 12 disabled)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      6461 casualties reported
         Squads: 191 destroyed, 31 disabled
         Non Combat: 369 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Engineers: 175 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Guns lost 225 (223 destroyed, 2 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 375 (375 destroyed, 0 disabled)
      Units retreated 5
 
 
Defeated Allied Units Retreating!
 
Assaulting units:
    3rd Tank Regiment
    18th Division
    5th Division
    14th Tank Regiment
    11th Tank Regiment
 
Defending units:
    23rd Indian Division
    14th Indian Division
    2nd British Division
    26th Indian Division
    III Indian Corps

Given the willingness to fix things like night bombing, what would it take to get ground combat fixed?

[herwin]

My posting of what realistic casualties might look like is posted here. The largest number of Commonwealth casualties I would expect to see in a day for this sized battle is about 400.

I have calibration data for the Burma campaign, and they are consistent with the OCS combat model. They are not consistent with the WitP-AE ground combat model.

[herwin]

December 8/9 1942

My opponent sent out something from Rabaul. No pause during the replay, so I'll report later.

There's been some interest in calibrating air attacks on troops. In OCS, a Sally or a Beaufighter unit (somewhere in the range of 20-45 aircraft) in Burma has an expectation of causing about 10 casualties per day. A fighter-bomber unit (same size range) can be expected to cause about 3 casualties a day. A Vengence unit, perhaps 15 per day. A B-25 was good for about 20/day, and a B-24 about 3 casualties a day (high-level bombing). Japanese airstrike by two Sally units and two fighter-bombers at Hankow, produced 387 casualties, about 15 times the expected number.

Allied air losses: 5; Japanese: 11, including two Japanese ground losses.

[herwin]

December 9/10 1942

I'm in the process of refitting my remaining heavy carriers--they should be ready in a couple of days. Then I'll make a visit to the Eastern Mandates before returning to the South Pacific. Perhaps I should send the battlefleet to Kwaj, with the carriers providing cover.

Reports minimal and continuous, so I'll need to turn to the combat reporter. I'll note the outcomes here.

Allied air losses: 5 (23 produced); Japanese 6, including 4 ground.

No ship losses.

A ground combat oopsee for Japan. (Note the Japanese casualty count is about ten times a realistic number)

Ground combat at 54,49 (near Ramree Island)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 15201 troops, 127 guns, 30 vehicles, Assault Value = 444
 
Defending force 9543 troops, 145 guns, 322 vehicles, Assault Value = 341
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 538
 
Allied adjusted defense: 1618
 
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 3
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      1456 casualties reported
         Squads: 9 destroyed, 104 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      10 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
 
 
Assaulting units:
    48th Division
 
Defending units:
    3rd Carabiniers Regiment
    73rd Motorised Brigade
    17th Indian Division

Air strike. Again the casualty figures are about six times a realistic figure.

Morning Air attack on 68th Chinese Corps, at 85,50 (Hankow)
 
Weather in hex: Partial cloud
 
Raid spotted at 9 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      Ki-49-IIa Helen x 12
 
 
 
No Japanese losses
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      70 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
 
 
Aircraft Attacking:
       6 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 8000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
       6 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 8000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Another such airstrike, this time about ten times a realistic figure.

Morning Air attack on 92nd Chinese Corps, at 85,50 (Hankow)
 
Weather in hex: Partial cloud
 
Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      Ki-27b Nate x 12
      Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 25
      Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 37
      Ki-49-Ia Helen x 7
      Ki-49-IIa Helen x 54
 
 
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      Ki-49-IIa Helen: 2 damaged
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      273 casualties reported
         Squads: 3 destroyed, 16 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 31 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
 
 
Aircraft Attacking:
      15 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 8000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
      27 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 8000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
       9 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 8000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
       7 x Ki-49-Ia Helen bombing from 8000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
       3 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 8000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Daylight port strike. This sort of disruption of port operations would lead fairly quickly to evacuation of the port by major warships.

Morning Air attack on Rabaul , at 106,125
 
Weather in hex: Thunderstorms
 
Raid detected at 20 NM, estimated altitude 29,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M3 Zero x 20
 
 
 
Allied aircraft
      B-24D Liberator x 10
 
 
No Japanese losses
 
Allied aircraft losses
      B-24D Liberator: 5 damaged
 
Japanese Ships
      BB Ise, Bomb hits 1
 
 
 
Aircraft Attacking:
      10 x B-24D Liberator bombing from 25000 feet *
               Port Attack:  5 x 500 lb GP Bomb
 
CAP engaged:
204 Ku S-1 with A6M3 Zero (6 airborne, 14 on standby, 0 scrambling)
      6 plane(s) intercepting now.
      Group patrol altitude is 12000 , scrambling fighters between 12000 and 28000.
      Time for all group planes to reach interception is 14 minutes

[herwin]

December 10/11 1942

Mostly quiet on the ocean.

Allied air losses: 27, including 22 F4Fs; Japanese: 24, including 24 SEFs.

Many, many ground losses--about an order of magnitude high relative to historical.

[herwin]

December 11/12 1942

Not a good day for Allied aviation.

Allied air losses: 37; Japanese 15. Mostly F4Fs. I need to upgrade my pilots.

[ADB123]

ORIGINAL: herwin

December 11/12 1942

Not a good day for Allied aviation.

Allied air losses: 37; Japanese 15. Mostly F4Fs. I need to upgrade my pilots.

It's not your pilots, it's how the F4Fs are modelled... They seem to be in the same class as Nates and Claudes, but without the maneuverability...

[herwin]

ORIGINAL: ADB123

ORIGINAL: herwin

December 11/12 1942

Not a good day for Allied aviation.

Allied air losses: 37; Japanese 15. Mostly F4Fs. I need to upgrade my pilots.

It's not your pilots, it's how the F4Fs are modelled... They seem to be in the same class as Nates and Claudes, but without the maneuverability...

Any evidence?

[herwin]

December 12/13 1942

Allied air losses: 13 (9 F4F); Japanese 11 (3 ground).

[herwin]

December 13/14 1942

Allied air losses: 12 (10 F4F); Japanese 11 (1 ground).

I now have about 80 F4F-4 I can reinforce Kirakira with.

[herwin]

December 14/15 1942

Good day in the air, especially with the reinforcements at Kirakira.

Allied air losses: 13; Japanese: 71, including 23 Kates, 19 Vals, and 8 ground.

This single airstrike by 74 Helens did about 70% of the damage the 8th USAAF did at St. Lo.

Morning Air attack on 12th Group Army, at 79,53 , near Hengyang
 
Weather in hex: Clear sky
 
Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      Ki-49-Ia Helen x 7
      Ki-49-IIa Helen x 67
 
 
 
No Japanese losses
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      709 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 82 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
 
 
Aircraft Attacking:
      19 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 8000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
      24 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 8000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
      12 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 8000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
       7 x Ki-49-Ia Helen bombing from 8000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
      12 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 8000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

[herwin]

December 15/16 1942

The air war was a little more balanced. I need to think through handing Kirakira.

Allied air losses: 27 (16 Wildcats); Japanese 31 (14 ground).

Nasty knife fight at Hankow

Ground combat at Hankow (85,50)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 87774 troops, 704 guns, 132 vehicles, Assault Value = 2189
 
Defending force 51714 troops, 329 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 788
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 2098
 
Allied adjusted defense: 1553
 
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
 supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      5000 casualties reported
         Squads: 16 destroyed, 311 disabled
         Non Combat: 23 destroyed, 56 disabled
         Engineers: 23 destroyed, 40 disabled
      Guns lost 47 (2 destroyed, 45 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 9 (8 destroyed, 1 disabled)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      1653 casualties reported
         Squads: 47 destroyed, 117 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 27 disabled
         Engineers: 1 destroyed, 24 disabled
      Guns lost 38 (2 destroyed, 36 disabled)
 
 
Assaulting units:
    51st Infantry Brigade
    12th Garrison Unit
    2nd Ind Engineer Regiment
    8th Ind.Mixed Brigade
    37th Division
    52nd Division
    35th Division
    46th Division
    53rd Division
    7th RGC Temp. Division
    31st JNAF AF Unit
    14th JNAF AF Unit
    11th Army
    22nd AA Regiment
    51st Field Const Co
    Hankow Special Base Force
    15th JNAF AF Unit
    54th JAAF AF Bn
 
Defending units:
    77th Chinese Corps
    85th Chinese Corps
    68th Chinese Corps
    30th Chinese Corps
    59th Chinese Corps
    92nd Chinese Corps
    94th Chinese Corps
    20th Group Army
    21st Group Army

The Japanese Panzer Corps strikes deep in the jungle mountains. What can I say except that these kind of battles are totally imaginary.

Ground combat at 60,46 (near Mandalay)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 12930 troops, 265 guns, 829 vehicles, Assault Value = 606
 
Defending force 3276 troops, 18 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 148
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 836
 
Allied adjusted defense: 313
 
Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      596 casualties reported
         Squads: 1 destroyed, 52 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
         Engineers: 2 destroyed, 13 disabled
      Guns lost 22 (1 destroyed, 21 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 27 (5 destroyed, 22 disabled)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      1339 casualties reported
         Squads: 43 destroyed, 50 disabled
         Non Combat: 23 destroyed, 10 disabled
         Engineers: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled
      Units retreated 1
 
 
Defeated Allied Units Retreating!
 
Assaulting units:
    1st Tank Division
    2nd Tank Division
 
Defending units:
    77th LRP Brigade

[herwin]

December 16/17 1942

The problem loading a CVE with replenishment squadrons was due to the fact I was neither docked nor anchored.

He has been losing a lot of tankers and oilers--does the increased submarine torpedo pHit kick in before January?

Two divisions show up in Terapo.

Allied air losses: 23 (11 F4F); Japanese: 31 (2 ground).