Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (A) vs. Q-Ball (J)

[Cribtop]

Yep, there are three principal Japanese moves in India:

1) Take Ceylon as an outpost

2) Take eastern India to protect Burma and seize the Calcutta region industry

3) The whole enchilada.

If Q-Ball is going for option 3, he will take Diego Garcia and Socotra before a massive landing designed to take Karachi. It that is his aim (and you must assume it is as the threat is existential whereas the other two choices are not), you need to haul posterior back to Karachi.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Yep, there are three principal Japanese moves in India:

1) Take Ceylon as an outpost

2) Take eastern India to protect Burma and seize the Calcutta region industry

3) The whole enchilada.

If Q-Ball is going for option 3, he will take Diego Garcia and Socotra before a massive landing designed to take Karachi. It that is his aim (and you must assume it is as the threat is existential whereas the other two choices are not), you need to haul posterior back to Karachi.

Well I don't think Diego Garcia is as important as people claim. It doesn't start with any air base at all and it only covers the convoys from Cape Town while most of the LCUs arrive at Aden. On the other hand, Socotra starts with a level 2 air base so it's got a decent head start and it blocks the Aden route. And even then I don't think you can predict the order of Socotra vs. Karachi. Could easily go Karachi then Socotra as the KB could refuel in Karachi after it's taken. Long story short, assume the Japanese are going to land at Karachi if you see the KB disappear after the landing in eastern India.

[Panjack]

Thank you for all your wise counsel. Even for any unwise counsel too!

All rolling stock in India is converging on Calcutta to transport the majority of LCUs now camped in that city to Karachi and Bombay.

As I feared, a paratroopers took Comilla, cutting off the retreat of units in Chittagong. I had a unit railing into Comilla but it just missed arriving in time. Nothing much is at Chittagong, however, so this won't hurt too much.

The invasion of India didn't start off on a bang, as a Japanese amphib TF trying to land at Chittagong was apparently scared off by a couple of AMcs! The TF failed to unload its soldiers and seems to have moved a couple of hexes away. This will henceforth be known as "The Battle of Chittagong Bay." But then a couple of Japanese capital ships cleared up any confusion as to who controls the seas.

[font="Courier New"]Night Time Surface Combat, near Chittagong at 55,41, Range 12,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
SC Ch 9
SC Ch 15
xAK Teiyo Maru
xAK Koei Maru
xAK Kinkai Maru
xAK Ume Maru
xAK Anzan Maru

Allied Ships
AMc Patna
AMc Medusa

Reduced sighting due to 28% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Overcast Conditions and 28% moonlight: 2,000 yards
Range increases to 12,000 yards...
Range increases to 12,000 yards...
Both Task Forces evade combat


---------------------------------------------

Day Time Surface Combat, near Chittagong at 55,41, Range 19,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
BB Nagato
BB Mutsu
CL Nagara
DD Yukikaze
DD Maikaze
DD Shirakumo
DD Shirayuki

Allied Ships
AMc Patna, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
AMc Medusa, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
[/font]

[Lowpe]

I like when the AI does stuff like this...adds so much to the flavor of the game. Uncertainty! Gotta love it.

[Panjack]

February 11, 1942
--------------------

Top News!

Headline: [font="Trebuchet MS"]Japanese land at Chittagong.[/font]
Numerous Japanese units landed at Chittagong yesterday after a horrendous bombardment by Japanese battleships. Although Allied commanders expressed confidence this incursion onto Indian soil was not a major cause for concern, British and Indian troops were seen packing up to leave Calcutta. Intelligence reports the following enemy units are now on Indian soil:
[font="Courier New"]
1st Tank Regiment
15th Ind Engineer Regiment
2nd Division
14th Tank Regiment
148th Infantry Regiment
5th Division
1st RF Gun Battalion
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
25th Army
18th JAAF Base Force[/font]

Headline: [font="Trebuchet MS"]Plucky Allied Ships Raid Japanese-Held Rangoon! Smoke Enshrouds Enemy Ships! [/font]

Two small Allied ships, the KV Thyme and the PG Clive, snuck into Rangoon Harbor and skillfully shelled an enemy transport task force unloading in port. Reports are that heavy fires were seen on a Japanese PB and xAK. Three other enemy ships were damaged by the accurate shelling of the two ships. Unfortunately, the Clive received a number of shell hits in return that imperil her survival. The ship is steaming back to friendly waters. The brave crew of the KV Thyme has gone off hunting Japanese ships elsewhere.

Headline: [font="Trebuchet MS"]Lanchow Threatened. City Prepares For the Worst!
[/font]
The citizens of the Chinese city of Lanchow are grimly preparing for an attack that some say might come in less than two weeks. The valiant 81st Chinese Corp has been slowing the advance of a tank unit and what appears to be a full division of Japanese infantry trying to force its way down a long desert road coming from Paotow. Officials in Chungking, the site of the Chinese army HQ, have promised that spirited and highly trained Chinese troops marching up from Tienshui would be more than a match for the Japanese army now lumbering towards Lanchow.

[Cribtop]

Hilarious headline approach. And the Battle of Chittagong Bay! Love it. [:D][&o]

Regarding the India discussion, I agree that Socotra is far more important than Diego, but JFBs planning to go for Karachi usually take Diego all the same, so watch for that as a sign Q is going for the whole enchilada. He may yet limit himself to the NE India conquest.

[GreyJoy]

IMHO, once the Japs land in eastern India, a succesfull conquest of Karachi/Bombay is already out of question.

Now that, with the extended map, there are many more bases between Scoodra and Karachi and in the area around Karachi, I think there is no way a Japanese player can conquer the whole enchilada.

Based on my experiences, Karachi and/or Bombay can be conquered ONLY (if ever) the Japanese player goes bold and lands immediately there, avoiding eastern India.

By the time the jap army from Calcutta gets to Bombay and develops a decent AF at Poona, Bombay is already a fortress.


Panjack: don't panic (not that you aren't). Let the japs have the whole lot and dig and place a couple of good divisions both at Bombay and Karachi. Don't waste your air force now. Preserve and build those two bases into fortresses. I don't really think QBall is going for the whole enchilada. Remember that he already got a bloody nose against Canoerebel in India... he knows now the limits of a Japanese all-in strategy

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

IMHO, once the Japs land in eastern India, a succesfull conquest of Karachi/Bombay is already out of question.

After seeing what QBall landed at Chittagong I agree with GreyJoy's assessment. I don't believe QBall is going all out for India now. I'd still secure Karachi and Bombay, but now you can trade space for time and commit your air units on your terms.

[Cribtop]

I agree with you both, but if I was Panjack I'd still secure Karachi/Bombay with my best troops and planes just in case. Calcutta should get a holding force that is heavy on engineers so that when Q takes is you maximize industry damage.

[Panjack]

Again, thanks for the insights.

The most recent turn (Feb 8, 1942) gave me:
[font="Courier New"]Imperial Guards Division is planning for an attack on Bombay.[/font]

Previously I got:
[font="Courier New"]11th Division is planning for an attack on Karachi.[/font]
[font="Courier New"]90th Infantry Regiment is planning for an attack on Socotra.[/font]

The last seems real (and not just to fake me out): the 90th infantry Regiment is an elite unit that must be bought out with PP. Intel also says that in early January the 90th Regiment was at Fusan and then on 1/20/1942 the 90th Regiment was moving to Cam Ranh Bay. So the 90th has been bought out and was moving the right direction to attack Socotra.

Seems kinda wasteful to pay for the unit and then use it just to send me false signals. So I'm guessing I should expect an attack on Socotra, which suggests he's after India.

The KB (or what I supposed was the KB) disappeared a couple of turns ago but in the most recent turn a small ship near Calcutta was sighted by a Val. So at least one carrier still remains around Calcutta. However, after sinking a couple of ships around Ceylon a number of days ago, the carriers have NOT been attacking either land or sea targets despite such targets being available. Perhaps Q-Ball is holding carrier planes back for mischief elsewhere in India. More circumstantial evidence.

But I'm new at this stuff. Does the above seem to suggest the whole enchilada despite his current move at Chittagong?

[Cribtop]

Hard to say. Q knows what he is after as he tried for all of India in a previous game and failed. As others have noted, it is odd to land at Chittagong in force if you are going whole enchilada. However, you are correct that 90th Regt is a "bought out" unit and, as noted, Socotra (a/k/a Scoodra) is a key base if you are going all in.

Bottom line, either Q is feigning a NE India invasion while planning to go for whole enchilada or he is feigning to go whole enchilada while planning to take just NE India. One of those scenarios is manageable from the Allied perspective, while one is an existential threat. Thus, IMHO you assume he is going whole enchilada until proven wrong. Can't hurt as you can't hold NE India either way, IMHO.

[Panjack]

Sounds reasonable to me. It does seem odd he just ordered a big plate of nachos (NE India) first when he might planning for the whole enchilada (all of India). But maybe he has a big appetite!

[Panjack]

February 15, 1941
--------------
Soerabaja falls and Java is now a Japanese colony...and more Japanese LCUs are released to cause mischief elsewhere.

Japanese carriers have vanished from the Bay of Bengal. They scared away most ships from the Bay of Bengal, their main goal I guess, but beyond that only sank a few small ships that couldn't move fast to flee the area. Who knows where the carriers will show up next.

The first major break in the Chinese defenses occurred when Chinese units, not far from Sian, were displaced from 3x territory onto 2x territory and a couple of Japanese units pursued retreating Chinese units into the 2x hex. This is the map below. Not a disaster, but it makes things more difficult. It was my fault because I failed to get enough troops in the 3x hex to begin with. Q-Ball has been probing everywhere in China and it was just a matter of time before something gave.

Supplies in China have been holding up pretty well, but then fell by 10% in one day a week or so ago. They're now a bit below 100K (Oh, my!) according to Tracker. I have no idea why the big one-day decline occurred. Perhaps lots replacements were taken somewhere?

In India, Japanese recon flights have been checking out the key dot bases on the rail lines NE of Calcutta (Rangpur and Tezpur). I think I have enough troops on these bases to fight off a paradrop. Q-Ball has made two so far and so I expect more. Many Allied unis are trudging over the mountains on the Burma/India border hoping to get to the rail line, but I'm guessing most won't make it before Japan takes control for rail system in that part of India. I imagine Q-Ball can easily hunt down the units that don't make it. Most are pretty weak to start off with. Maybe they should just turn back into Burma?

[Panjack]

February 16, 1941
-------------------

The Alaskan Navy has been pretty successful. For the most part, it's made up of a couple of destroyers and a light cruiser. Along with regularly bombarding the Aleutian islands Japan has occupied, they have sunk a number of transports leading to the loss of about 1,300 Japanese soldiers.

Clearly this miffed Japan. Two destroyers of the Alaskan Navy were crushed by an overwhelming SCTF in a rainy and moonless night...
[font="Courier New"]
Night Time Surface Combat, near Attu Island at 153,49, Range 2,000 Yards
Japanese Ships
CA Takao
CA Atago, Shell hits 2
CL Jintsu
CL Isuzu
CL Kuma
DD Michishio
DD Arashio
DD Shiratsuyu
DD Shigure
DD Yugure
DD Ariake
DD Fubuki

Allied Ships
DD Phelps, Shell hits 15, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

---------------------------------------------

Night Time Surface Combat, near Attu Island at 153,49, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Takao
CA Atago
CL Jintsu
CL Isuzu
CL Kuma
DD Michishio
DD Arashio
DD Shiratsuyu
DD Shigure
DD Yugure
DD Ariake
DD Fubuki

Allied Ships
DD Dale, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk[/font]

After this "hit" the Japanese ships left.

[Panjack]

February 17 and 18, 1941
--------------------

On the 17th intel includes:
[font="Courier New"]2nd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion is planning for an attack on Bombay.
7/38th Division is planning for an attack on Colombo. [/font]

Then on February 18, ships popped up all around Ceylon. My guess is landings will occur at the top and bottom of Ceylon at the small undefended bases. Columbo is mostly abandoned and units originally there have moved to Trincomalee (and its jungle). Units like the HQn based on Columbo moved to mainland India long ago.

[Panjack]

And here's the action elsewhere in India. Japanese tanks have blasted up the road clearly aiming for Tezpur, where they will be met by the 45th Indian Bde and the 7th Hussars Rgt. The Hussars have 46 Stuart I light tanks. I'm assuming the Japanese tanks will cross the river to the east of Tezpur and then attack across a non-river hex side.

Calcutta should have just enough firepower, I'm hoping, to keep Japan from just overrunning the town. The two Indian Bdes there have very low experience so I'm not expecting too much of them.

[Panjack]

February 19, 1941
---------------

Japan lands on Ceylon:

Jaffna: the 18th Division lands unopposed.
Koggala: 41st and 143rd Infantry Regs landed opposed only by a handful of fishermen and Buddhist monks. They did little to slow down the landing.

I guess I can assume that Q-Ball has India on his mind.

[Sangeli]

The units from Burma could link up and form a redoubt in the jungle. I doubt the Japanese will turn east from India to defeat them so they could hold out for a while. Or Japan could decide it needs to eliminate them which could buy you time elsewhere. Anything is better than being routed in 1x terrain, however.

Looks like Ceylon is next. Smart move pulling out what you could earlier.

That 2x hex Japan is attacking is probably the most vulnerable part of the Chinese defenses near Sian. Losing that hex could bring down the entire defense there but luckily you can get reserves there more easily than Japan can given the road situation.

EDIT: Are you spending PP to buy out units from the US to send to India? Though at this point the window for reinforcements could be closing if the Japanese take Diego Garcia.

[Panjack]

I currently have about 2500 AV split between Karachi and Bombay, and some of it is real (e.g., Aussies and, to a lesser extent, the 18th Brit Division, which recently took a tension-filled cruse from Diego Garcia to Western India).

I have enough PP in the bank to buy a full division, but the division I might buy is now basking in the sunshine of Southern California. I'm not sure they could get to India in time before the Arabian Sea, and south of that, becomes a Japanese pond.

The 2x hex I now have to defend on the road to Sian I'm hoping can hold, as 1300 AV of Chinese flooded into the hex. But all the units required to defend that hex means they can't be used elsewhere.

I might have no choice but to tell my Burma refugees to set up camp in the mountains along the Burma/India border as Japanese tank units are now sitting on the RR line to freedom. Not much supply in that part of the world, however.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Panjack
I might have no choice but to tell my Burma refugees to set up camp in the mountains along the Burma/India border as Japanese tank units are now sitting on the RR line to freedom. Not much supply in that part of the world, however.

It may be possible using supply stockpiling mechanisms to increase the supply they have before the door is completely shut. Although by this point those units are largely irrelevant anyway. In retrospect falling back to China would have been the better move although not much supply there either.