Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

[AcePylut]

On another note, I almost have a US Army Fighter Group in OZ that has no withdrawal date.
I will go through all of other fighter groups and cull the most experienced pilots and put them in this “super-group”.

Then, I will covert the unit to P-38’s. I have 34 of these “in the bank” through effective use of downgrading the restricted P38’s that start the war on the map.

[Anachro]

Wow, that's a good idea. In my game with John, I've been making use of the a/c PP buyout system his mod has, but forgot about the restricted P38's in the mainland. May your CV's hunt well in the DEI. We'll see if Chickenboy races up with the KB and relieves some pressure down there in the SoPac for you.

[AcePylut]

The KB is too far away to do anything for the next week, so all I have to worry about is the Mini-KB. Not sure how well 2 US CV's will hold up to the Mini-KB at this point in the war, especially since any "repair" base I have is a long way off. The good thing is that I'm pretty sure CB doesn't think I have any worthy ships in the region, because the IJ sub presence is non-existent (at least according to my search aircraft). This is good imho, because I don't think he'll suspect CV's to show up. I just need to get the right target, and I think any fleet with at least 2 CA would be good. That would be 10% of his CA fleet gone for the war. If CB does what most people do, the Mini-KB is up near the Aleuts, but I can't count on that. So my search planes in the DEI are going to be ridden hard over the next week.

I'm trying to keep my CV's at the edge of Netty Range. If these fleets at Balikpapan are full of small-fry, I'll pull my CV's back to Koepang and wait a few turns... see if anything else shows up. Depending on how long the KB has disappeared, is how long I might stick around in the DEI. We'll see.

The KB has been out of sight for 1 turn (this turn). I think "headed back to get fuel" is what it's doing. There hasn't been a move on Tabiteuea (sp) yet. One of these days I'll sit down and learn the spelling of that base once and for all. Also, Pago Pago seems safe for the moment.

[AcePylut]

Latest turn arrived last night, and that was a good thing because I needed to sleep on it and think clearly.

At Norfolk Island, as suspected in my previous update, the IJ was able to bug out by the time I got there. My ships retired to NZ and are too far away to effect an intercept. Opportunity lost by one day.

The KB has been missing for 2 days. The Mini-KB has been gone for a couple of weeks.

In the DEI, more IJ “small fry” tf’s flooded the Balikpapan Straights (or whatever that’s called) – there are about 8-9 TFs in the area. I think that CB is trying to pull a Wizard of Oz by “showing a lot of task forces” to give the impression of a major move… but the doubled search I created still shows these tf’s to be stocked only with small fry ships. It’s as if he’s trying to present a “whole bunch of chances to sink a lot of ships for this incoming invasion” to bait me into sending something valuable into the region, so he can spring a trap and sink some really valuable ships of mine.

I won’t fall for it, especially since, during the afternoon phase, the CVL Hermes was “spotted” by a search aircraft (why it didn’t or doesn’t disband in the morning phase is beyond me, the ship was only 2 hexes from the port). He knew this ship was lurking in the DEI from its “perfect ambush / terrible torpedo run” attack a couple-three weeks ago. He may now know that it’s “around” again, and will spring his trap to try and sink it.

Thus: On one hand I have a spotted CVL that happened to be lurking in the region 2-3 weeks ago. On the other hand, I have a bunch of small fry tf’s that are using smoke and mirrors to “appear” to be something major.

I will have to do the prudent thing, and retire my carriers. It’s not worth the risk given “what I know” and “what I know he knows”.

I will have to (possibly) sacrifice 2-3-4 DD’s though, for the strategic level meta. I’m going to send in either a single 4DD tf to blast as much small fry as possible… or I’m going to send in two 2DD’s tf’s to do the same. I'm doing this because...

I want him to A) think that his trap worked and I can be baited easily.
I want him to B) think that the CV spotted was an erroneous/faulty identification, and that he really spotted just a couple DD’s. I do this to try and create doubt about his belief in his search pilots ability. (I.e. “Dang, last turn it said Carrier, but it was just a pair of DD’s. My search pilots are as garbage as those Dutch pilots that thought a BB was just a Patrol Boat.”)

I think I’ll go with two 2DD tf’s – so that if a massive air strike comes (or I encounter something heavy) perhaps 1 of the tf’s will sink some ships and then escape. A massive air strike would be welcome, actually, because it would tell me that this entire “flash a whole bunch of tf’s” is (or was), for certain, a trap.

Also, I'll watch the amount of bombers hitting Singapore from NW Borneo. Singers has been steadily bombed from this direction. If, all of a sudden, there is no attack from Borneo, then I will assume that his bombers were set to naval attack and that would also be a clue that tells me, in the words of the Great Admiral Ackbar... "It's a trap!"... (if you said that in Ackbar's voice, you win the internet today).

Layers on top of layers on top of layers. Love this game.

[Anachro]

Is it really bad if all he spots is the CVL Hermes? Could you take on part of mini-KB with your other carriers if they appeared? Might be a good means by which you can draw it out. If he goes deep into the DEI, you have the advantage of LBA versus him.

[AcePylut]

A light bulb just went off in my head.

Over the last 4-5days, I’ve had (2) A-24 groups at Port Moresby reconning Gili-Gili. I’ve also had a sub parked on this base for about 2 weeks.

Today, a large IJ tf of 4 CA, 2 CL, and assorted DD’s showed up at said base. I’m wondering if my “few days of recon” may have led CB to believe I was going to invade the base, and he put some ships there to destroy any possible invasion fleet.

If, over the next two-three turns, nothing else shows up at the base, I will conclude that this was the case and docket this information to setup a trap somewhere at a later date. The other possible option behind this CA tf move is that this TF is “clearing the way” for a PM invasion, which would be made clear in the next couple of days.


Funny, but the REAL reason I was reconning the base – is that I wanted to know if any IJ LCU’s were there. Ya see, my sub had been sitting on that base and there was no sign of enemy ground troops. The recon was to see if there was ground troops. The Gili Gili thing was an op just to test the game mechanics for the possible Marcus Island Invasion. Which…. Marcus Island will happen by APD or not at all - I forgot that I can’t convert my 3 subs to SST’s yet. D’oh.

[BBfanboy]

Watching thousands of TFs approach port over the years I note that more often than not they end up in the hex next to the port, even when they appear to have enough movement hexes left to enter the port. Near as I can figure, the game requires one whole phase to enter port from the adjacent hex - i.e. if it is not in the adjacent hex at the end of the night naval movement phase, it won't enter port on the day naval movement phase. If it does enter port, it seems to do very little in terms of unloading or disbanding until the next phase. I suppose this is an abstraction of having to slow down for other traffic around the port and waiting for a pilot to take the ships in.

[AcePylut]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Is it really bad if all he spots is the CVL Hermes? Could you take on part of mini-KB with your other carriers if they appeared? Might be a good means by which you can draw it out. If he goes deep into the DEI, you have the advantage of LBA versus him.

I don’t want to take on the Mini-KB with 2 CV and the Hermes. He has flown Netties from Palembang, Manado, Ternate, and the NE of Borneo so he can easily do it again at the chance of bagging some US Fleet Carriers. His Netties can range over any decent, ship repairing port, in the DEI. My safest base is Darwin, and that base is easily isolated. If I take anything above moderate damage – which is a very real possibility - my CV’s will most likely not make it out alive. My LBA in the region sucks. Dutch bombers can’t hit garbage (and believe me, they’ve been trying to hit those annoyance task forces in the Balikpapan straights for a week or two) and most of my Brit squads are in Calcutta or Sydney.

This DEI Op is all predicated on striking something valuable with as little risk as possible to me. Enemy CV’s in the region present a threat that is too great for my “gut feeling” right now. Surprise is of the essence. The sighting of the Hermes takes that surprise away. The only way I can regain the surprise is a little sleight of hand, and make him think the Hermes was actually just a couple of DD’s.

In thinking more about sending in two (2) DD tf’s, I’m going to add a CL to one of those TF’s. That should feed the belief that the “so called CV sighting” was just a CL sighting, and maybe “regain” the surprise aspect.

[AcePylut]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Watching thousands of TFs approach port over the years I note that more often than not they end up in the hex next to the port, even when they appear to have enough movement hexes left to enter the port. Near as I can figure, the game requires one whole phase to enter port from the adjacent hex - i.e. if it is not in the adjacent hex at the end of the night naval movement phase, it won't enter port on the day naval movement phase. If it does enter port, it seems to do very little in terms of unloading or disbanding until the next phase. I suppose this is an abstraction of having to slow down for other traffic around the port and waiting for a pilot to take the ships in.

Thanks! Duly noted.

[Encircled]

Very sensible mate

Once your carrier was spotted, and you don't know where his carriers are, then you don't do anything else.

[AcePylut]

In yesterday’s turn…

In the DEI – I sent in a (2) DD tf, and a (2) DD (1) CL tf. The 2 DD tf encountered various small fry tf’s and sank 9 amc/sc ships. The CL must have had it’s settings screwed up or something, because it didn’t find anything and retired to base.

During the air phase, 25+ unescorted Bettys out of Manado sank the (2) DD’s. The key here is that the Bettys were unescorted. During the afternoon naval phase, multiple large tf’s started landing troops at Balikpapan.

My CV’s could effect an afternoon strike against this shipping on the following day… however… it appeared that one of the tf’s had about 4-5 “CS” ships in it. I’m a little weary of these, as sometimes CS ships turn out to be CV’s.

So what do I know: The KB (or at least part of it) made an appearance on my LR Search at Noumea. The Mini-KB is nowhere to be found. I would estimate <performs head calculations> that 2 IJ Fleet CV’s and the Mini-KB are unaccounted. No planes show up in the tf mouseover (and it seems to me that anytime there are actual carriers, planes show up in the mouseover). I have this region covered by at least 3 separate search groups, but DL is low on each fleet nonetheless. Outside of the “CS” tf, none of my search shows any Japanese CV’s or “141 Aux planes” in a mouseover. If his Carriers *are* lurking ‘out of search range’, he’d have to do a full speed run to get into range of my CV’s proposed location. I know that he knows that any dash through the straights would put his CV’s in the firing line of at least three Dutch Subs. I know he knows this because over the last week, those amc’s and sc’s I just sunk had been dropping enough DC’s in the Makassar Straights to create a steel bridge from Borneo to the Celebes. Another piece of info is that his Bettys were unescorted, and no Vals or Kates were involved in the attack, and none of my ships or bases had any indications of “recon” or “spotted” from Vals or Kates. I would think that if the KB was in the area, he’d have at least a few carrier Zero’s on escort. I don’t think he’d push his CV’s into the Makassar Straights and pretend to “hide” them by having all his carriers planes on “rest”.


Thus, I’m being led to believe that this “CS” tf is a “blocking” sctf of at least 4 Jap Heavy Cruisers and not any carriers... and that is a damn worthy target.

The aggressive nature of me wants to send in Lex and Enterprise. To effectuate a max range strike at Balikpapan, I would have to be at range 17 of the Bettys out of Manado. This means I need most of my F4F’s on Cap (as if they wouldn’t be, anyways). Well it means I would put more WildKitty’s on CAP than I originally planned. I believe that my kittys would effectively defend my carriers against the bettys…but then it only takes one golden torpedo to ruin the day. My CV’s can take a torp (barring a critical hit). My CV’s will be escorted by 5 CA, 2 CL, 6 DD (due to this thought that any ships in a tf past 15 lessen each ships AAA effectiveness – but perhaps that’s a WITP Original belief).

On my lunch, I’ll run the turn on my work pc (I ran the turn late last night, before bed) and get some data. I’ll also review the ops reports in depth and see if any search planes scouring the straights were downed by Zeros.


Also, at Christmas Island south of PH – I sank the CL Natori. She was raiding a couple of weeks ago.

Lastly, a 1 CL/2DD fleet I have lurking between Guam and Iwo for the last week… its search planes spotted a tf, but did not pursue the enemy. I’m going to pull it back to safety. I might bombard Marcus in passing, just to see if there are any LCU. If there are, then the invasion planned for 3 weeks will be scrubbed. If not, then I’ll move in 3-4 subs to the island. If the “bombardment” makes CB tend to this base, hopefully I can get a few sub torpedo non-dud hits on some ships of his. If no enemy ships roll over Marcus in the next 3-4 weeks, the invasion will be “on”.

[Mike Solli]

I like that little TF that's hanging out in the middle of the Pacific. Small enough that it doesn't really matter if it gets caught but it can get lucky and take out a supply/fuel TF or a little transport TF. Sneaky. [:-]

What caught Natori?

[AcePylut]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

I like that little TF that's hanging out in the middle of the Pacific. Small enough that it doesn't really matter if it gets caught but it can get lucky and take out a supply/fuel TF or a little transport TF. Sneaky. [:-]

On second look - I will pursue the fleet before retiring

"SOC-1 Seagull sighting report: Japanese DMS at 112,84 near Agrihan , Speed 12 , Moving Southwest
SOC-1 Seagull sighting report: 2 Japanese ships at 112,84 near Agrihan , Speed 10 , Moving Southwest
SOC-1 Seagull sighting report: 5 Japanese ships at 112,84 near Agrihan , Speed 15 , Moving Southwest"


Sorry about the bad quality of the image - it's my work laptop.

My tf consists of the CL Phoenix (selected because it had 4 search planes) and (2) DD. One of the DD's is the DD-Blue. My ex-wife's grandfather served on this ship in WW2. He was at Pearl when it was bombed (he said he spent 3 days fishing bodies out of the harbor). He was on the ship at the Battle of Savo Island. My ex's grandfather was a "lookout's bad eyesight" away from being blasted into little bits by the entire fleet... here's the excerpt from Wiki...

"To avoid Blue, Mikawa changed course to pass north of Savo Island.[9]:36 He also ordered his ships to slow to 22 knots (41 km/h), to reduce wakes that might make his ships more visible.[1]:103 Four minutes later, Mikawa's lookouts spied either Ralph Talbot about 16 kilometres (10 mi) away or a small schooner of unknown nationality.[1]:103[10]:171[24] The Japanese ships held their course while pointing more than 50 guns at Blue, ready to open fire at the first indication that Blue had sighted them.[9]:36 When Blue was less than 2 kilometres (1 mi) away from Mikawa's force, she suddenly reversed course, having reached the end of her patrol track, and steamed away, apparently oblivious to the long column of large Japanese ships sailing by her.[10]:171–3 Seeing that his ships were still undetected, Mikawa turned back to a course south of Savo Island and increased speed, first to 26 knots (48 km/h), and then to 30 knots (56 km/h). "

What caught Natori?

Well I'm a little embarrassed to say... but a transport fleet of spd 20+ transports caught it. One AP put a 3" shell into the Natori, then a US DD put a 5" into it. Then I outran that 18kt cruiser.... to allow my "following" fleet of 1 CA 2 CL 4 DD to engage and sink it.

I had screwed up and set my sctf set to follow the transport and not the other way around. D'oh. It didn't come back to bite me.

The transport fleet was the one that dropped off the soldiers at Tab. Unfortunately, my fleet couldn't stick around for a week to unload the heavy equipment until I get one of those 30 Squad Naval Support units in Tab. That will occur in about 4-5 days. Then I will make another run into Tab with the heavy equipment on a streamlined tf.

[rustysi]

During the air phase, 25+ unescorted Bettys out of Manado sank the (2) DD’s. The key here is that the Bettys were unescorted.

Manado is out of fighter range (Zero is 7/8 normal/extended) unless he could use drop tanks. I'm not sure he'd be able to meet the criteria for their use at this point in that location.

it appeared that one of the tf’s had about 4-5 “CS” ships in it. I’m a little weary of these, as sometimes CS ships turn out to be CV’s.

Or CVE's.

I believe that my kittys would effectively defend my carriers against the bettys…but then it only takes one golden torpedo to ruin the day.

Probably, but as you say it only takes one or two to get through, and your day is ruined.[:(]

a 1 CL/2DD fleet I have lurking between Guam and Iwo for the last week… its search planes spotted a tf, but did not pursue the enemy. I’m going to pull it back to safety. I might bombard Marcus in passing, just to see if there are any LCU.

That sighting could be bogus. As to bombarding Marcus, I like the idea as it'll definitely tell you if there're LCU's at the place, but might it tip him off. Maybe a better idea is to have a bombardment TF lead the invasion TF by a day, and abort if LCU's are found. This way he's no time to react beforehand. Or not if you don't plan to invade for a while. Then again he could reinforce in the meantime. Or...[:D] Layers, on top of layers... You can go bananas second guessing yourself in this game.[:'(]

[rustysi]

The transport fleet was the one that dropped off the soldiers at Tab.

You have an obsession with this location that I fear is going to end badly for you. To that I say go on with your ops as I'm curious to see how the 'Bird' will respond.

[rustysi]

One other thing. Again I ask, what is the game date?

[AcePylut]

I'm going after that little transport fleet by the Mariana's. Should I survive any possible aircraft response out of Siapan, then it's only "natural" to bombard Marcus on the way home.

Either way, CB knows I have float planes past Marcus Island and thus, he knows I have at least a CL behind his lines. This, in itself, should drive him to at least get some eyeballs looking east from Marcus.... my gut, right now, tells me the invasion of Marcus will be scrubbed... but I do like the idea of bombarding it a day before the APD's show up. I can always call off the invasion. I have 4 subs spaced 2, 4, 6, 8 hexes from Marcus to the east. If, in a week or two, they start showing DL, then I know he's got search planes at the Island and most likely an LCU.

When I think about this upcoming raider fleet action from the top level meta, the grand level strategy, engaging a “hopefully under-escorted transport fleet” serves me much better than invading Marcus. Putting a raider fleet into his Pacific supply lines will force him to consider covering “all” his transport fleets with combat ships, or at least it will force him to cover these lanes with “heavy enough LBA”. Anything that he uses to protect transports behind his lines is stuff that’s not being used on the front line. This small action, risking a CL and 2 DD’s, may reduce his front line combat capability in a manner that a fleet 20 times larger wouldn’t.

When I send him the turn, my comment will be “2 can play the Raiding Game &#128522;”.

[AcePylut]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

The transport fleet was the one that dropped off the soldiers at Tab.

You have an obsession with this location that I fear is going to end badly for you. To that I say go on with your ops as I'm curious to see how the 'Bird' will respond.

It's Jan 22nd, '42.

I lost Tab badly in a previous match. I dumped an entire Marine Division on the island. The IJ counterattacked a couple days later. I didn't get enough supply ashore. My entire division surrendered on the first IJ attack. It was a definite morale killer.

I'm not going to suicide myself over it.... it's far too early in the war. My goal is to force any invasion of the island to be done in at least "bigger than regiment" strength. This will occupy enough IJ time (fingers crossed) to allow me to continue to reinforce Christmas, Fanning, Johnston, Canton, and Baker islands. My greatest hope is that the "First Wave" of any IJ assault troops doesn't take it, and then CB is the guy that has to decide if he "wants to come back with a heck of a lot more" or not...

And all that will cost him time. Time is the second greatest commodity in this game.

[rustysi]

When I think about this upcoming raider fleet action from the top level meta, the grand level strategy, engaging a “hopefully under-escorted transport fleet” serves me much better than invading Marcus. Putting a raider fleet into his Pacific supply lines will force him to consider covering “all” his transport fleets with combat ships, or at least it will force him to cover these lanes with “heavy enough LBA”. Anything that he uses to protect transports behind his lines is stuff that’s not being used on the front line. This small action, risking a CL and 2 DD’s, may reduce his front line combat capability in a manner that a fleet 20 times larger wouldn’t.

Its gotta be a concern for him, as this is his main SLOC to his southeast area of ops. I don't know how CB sets himself up, but I do know that I keep a 'Home Fleet' if you will for such occurrences. Part of that fleet for me would easily dispatch your force in the area.

Again though its takes a bit of time for me to get the appropriate forces on station and I'm not sure what date your in in your game.

Also I've normally got a number of air units in the HI for training, some live fire wouldn't hurt.[:D]

But that's me...

Besides, I'd still be a bit behind the curve, as I'm reacting and not acting, as you are. I mean I can't be everywhere at once.

Then again you're giving me some ideas on how to 'escort' my TF's through the region.

[rustysi]

It's Jan 22nd, '42.

Yeah, 'Home Fleet' is in place by then.

I'm not going to suicide myself over it.... it's far too early in the war. My goal is to force any invasion of the island to be done in at least "bigger than regiment" strength. This will occupy enough IJ time (fingers crossed) to allow me to continue to reinforce Christmas, Fanning, Johnston, Canton, and Baker islands. My greatest hope is that the "First Wave" of any IJ assault troops doesn't take it, and then CB is the guy that has to decide if he "wants to come back with a heck of a lot more" or not...

Fair enough, and definitely makes sense.[;)]