AI for MWiF - France

[peskpesk]

Here is a rough example of how a Surrender rule for France could look.

Surrender rule for France

Precondition:

- Euro Axis controls at least 8 French printed Factories.
- France has at least one possible new home country.

Base: 10%.

Modifications:
• For each additional Euro Axis controlled printed French factory + 5 %
• For each French land unit below 10 in Metropolitan France + 5%
• For each French land unit above 10 in Metropolitan France - 5%
• For each French controlled railed factory in Metropolitan France - 3%
• For each CW/US land unit in Metropolitan France - 2%
• For each Euro Axis controlled minor port in Metropolitan France +1%
• For each Euro Axis controlled major port in Metropolitan France +2%
• For each Euro Axis controlled resource in Metropolitan France +1%
• Game turn Nov/Dec + 10 %
• For each Year > 1940 – 5%
• US entry is low + 10%
• Germany at war with USSR -10%
• Germany at war with USA -10%
• France controls Toulouse -5 %

[Orm]

Maybe something like this?

- France controls Paris and it has at least 12 factors in defence after reinforcement -5%

[composer99]

I would suggest adding a line for Axis control of Paris, something like +10% or +15%.

[petracelli]

Gents, just passing. Are views still being sort on views for the AI for France?

Cheers

Phil

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: petracelli

Gents, just passing. Are views still being sort on views for the AI for France?

Cheers

Phil

Yes. Peter is currently working on defining a set of strategic plans for the AI Opponent for France. A lot of that has already been figured out and the question of when to Surrender is the last missing piece. But none of those decisions is irrevocable.

[Extraneous]

[:)] This has merit. [:)]

ORIGINAL: peskpesk

Here is a rough example of how a Surrender rule for France could look.

Surrender rule for France

Precondition:

- Euro Axis controls at least 8 French printed Factories.
- France has at least one possible new home country.

Base: 10%.

Modifications:
• For each additional Euro Axis controlled printed French factory + 5 %
• For each French land unit below 10 in Metropolitan France + 5%
• For each French land unit above 10 in Metropolitan France - 5%
• For each French controlled railed factory in Metropolitan France - 3%
• For each CW/US land unit in Metropolitan France - 2%
• For each Euro Axis controlled minor port in Metropolitan France +1%
• For each Euro Axis controlled major port in Metropolitan France +2%
• For each Euro Axis controlled resource in Metropolitan France +1%
• Game turn Nov/Dec + 10 %
• For each Year > 1940 – 5%
• US entry is low + 10%
• Germany at war with USSR -10%
• Germany at war with USA -10%
• France controls Toulouse -5 %

Please clarify:

What does “Euro Axis” mean? (Only Axis countries located on the European map?)
What does “France has at least one possible new home country” mean? (Are you referring to incomplete conquest versus complete conquest?)
What does “US entry is low” mean? (A low chance that the USA will enter the war?)

Surrender rule for France using a d10 for those that prefer a d10 instead of a d100.

Preconditions:

- Euro Axis controls at least 8 French printed Factories.
- France has at least one possible new home country.

Base: + 1.0

Modifications:
• For each additional Euro Axis controlled printed French factory + 0.5
• For each Euro Axis controlled minor port in Metropolitan France + 0.1
• For each Euro Axis controlled major port in Metropolitan France + 0.2
• For each Euro Axis controlled resource in Metropolitan France + 0.1
• For each French controlled railed factory in Metropolitan France - 0.3
• France controls Toulouse - 0.5
• For each French land unit below 10 in Metropolitan France + 0.5
• For each French land unit above 10 in Metropolitan France - 0.5
• For each CW/US land unit in Metropolitan France - 0.2
• Germany at war with USSR - 1.0
• Germany at war with USA – 1.0
• US entry is low + 1.0
• Game turn Nov/Dec + 1.0
• For each Year > 1940 – 0.5

Just a FYI:

Global war (see 24.4.7) French land units in Metropolitan France at setup
2x Leaders
1x Motorized Corps
4x Infantry Corps
2x Garrison Corps
1x Cavalry Corps
1x Divisions
3x Guns

[Shannon V. OKeets]

EuroAxis is a term I created to describe Germany and Italy. At times Italy may be conquered, leaving Germany as the only 'member' of the EuroAxis (or vice-a-versa). When writing code for the AIO, EuroAxis is a convenient 'shorthand' term.

[paulderynck]

What does “France has at least one possible new home country” mean? (Are you referring to incomplete conquest versus complete conquest?)

Yes, France would almost always be incompletely conquered if it surrenders, because it has so many colonies to make into a new home country (and it can keep moving, too)

What does “US entry is low” mean? (A low chance that the USA will enter the war?)

This is somewhat subjective. There are a number of threads on US Entry here. It involves the axis trying to estimate where the U.S. is on the "It's War" chart. The fewer entry chits the US has, the less likely it can successfully attempt a Declaration of War. Also important are which US Entry Options the U.S. has so far selected in the game.

[peskpesk]

After your comments I have modified the Surrender rule for France suggestion, new version.

Surrender rule for France

Precondition:
- Euro Axis controls at least 8 French printed Factories.
- France controls at least one controls colony to use as new home country

Base: 10%.

Modifications:
• For each additional Euro Axis controlled printed French factory + 5 %
• For each French land unit below 10 in Metropolitan France + 5%
• For each French land unit above 10 in Metropolitan France - 5%
• For each French controlled railed factory in Metropolitan France - 3%
• For each CW/US land unit in Metropolitan France - 2%
• For each Euro Axis controlled minor port in Metropolitan France +1%
• For each Euro Axis controlled major port in Metropolitan France +2%
• For each Euro Axis controlled resource in Metropolitan France +1%
• Game turn Nov/Dec + 10 %
• For each Year > 1940 – 5%
• US entry is low* + 10%
• Germany at war with USSR -10%
• Germany at war with USA -10%
• France controls Toulouse -5 %
• France controls Paris -5 %
• Germany controls Paris +10 %

* if important US Entry Options has not been able to be chosen due to low US entry OR if its low chance that the USA can declare war due to low US entry.

[Extraneous]

ORIGINAL: peskpesk

After your comments I have modified the Surrender rule for France suggestion, new version.

Surrender rule for France

Precondition:
- Euro Axis controls at least 8 French printed Factories.
- France controls at least one controls colony to use as new home country

Base: 10%.

Modifications:
• For each additional Euro Axis controlled printed French factory + 5 %
• For each French land unit below 10 in Metropolitan France + 5%
• For each French land unit above 10 in Metropolitan France - 5%
• For each French controlled railed factory in Metropolitan France - 3%
• For each CW/US land unit in Metropolitan France - 2%
• For each Euro Axis controlled minor port in Metropolitan France +1%
• For each Euro Axis controlled major port in Metropolitan France +2%
• For each Euro Axis controlled resource in Metropolitan France +1%
• Game turn Nov/Dec + 10 %
• For each Year > 1940 – 5%
• US entry is low* + 10%
• Germany at war with USSR -10%
• Germany at war with USA -10%
• France controls Toulouse -5 %
• France controls Paris -5 %
• Germany controls Paris +10 %

* if important US Entry Options has not been able to be chosen due to low US entry OR if its low chance that the USA can declare war due to low US entry.

[:)] How about...

13.7.1 Conquest
Now choose a new home country for the units of the conquered home country. Conquered Commonwealth home countries can pick another Commonwealth home country (e.g. if Britain is conquered, you could pick Canada as the new home country for British units). Other conquered major power home countries (and Commonwealth if you want), can pick any aligned minor home country. Conquered minor countries can pick either any home country of their controlling major power or any home country that the minor country itself controls.

- France controls at least one colony to use as new home country (aligned minor home country not colony).
changed to
- The surrender of France would result in incomplete conquest.

and

• US entry is low* + 10%
changed to
• The US entry level against the Euro Axis > than 24 and US war number against the Euro Axis < 5 * + 10%


On the “9.4 IT’S WAR CHART” cross-index the US entry level against the Euro Axis with the US tension level against the Euro Axis to find the US war number against the Euro Axis.

[composer99]

I would suggest changing 'Germany controls Paris' to 'Paris is Axis-controlled'.

[Red Prince]

What does “US entry is low” mean? (A low chance that the USA will enter the war?)

This is somewhat subjective. There are a number of threads on US Entry here. It involves the axis trying to estimate where the U.S. is on the "It's War" chart. The fewer entry chits the US has, the less likely it can successfully attempt a Declaration of War. Also important are which US Entry Options the U.S. has so far selected in the game.

and

and

• US entry is low* + 10%
changed to
• The US entry level against the Euro Axis > than 24 and US war number against the Euro Axis < 5 * + 10%


On the “9.4 IT’S WAR CHART” cross-index the US entry level against the Euro Axis with the US tension level against the Euro Axis to find the US war number against the Euro Axis.

Will the actual numbers be "available" to the French AIO? Or will it be limited to the number of chits in each pool, as per RAW?

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

What does “US entry is low” mean? (A low chance that the USA will enter the war?)

This is somewhat subjective. There are a number of threads on US Entry here. It involves the axis trying to estimate where the U.S. is on the "It's War" chart. The fewer entry chits the US has, the less likely it can successfully attempt a Declaration of War. Also important are which US Entry Options the U.S. has so far selected in the game.

and

and

• US entry is low* + 10%
changed to
• The US entry level against the Euro Axis > than 24 and US war number against the Euro Axis < 5 * + 10%


On the “9.4 IT’S WAR CHART” cross-index the US entry level against the Euro Axis with the US tension level against the Euro Axis to find the US war number against the Euro Axis.

Will the actual numbers be "available" to the French AIO? Or will it be limited to the number of chits in each pool, as per RAW?

The AIO will be playing an entire side, so all major powers on the Allied side will know the US Entry details.

[Red Prince]

Oops. Forgot about that.

[paulderynck]

I'm not sure the US entry is even a consideration. It is unlikely that the difference of point 9 of a chit (i.e. one chit) is going to have a big effect, especially in 1940 when average chit values are smallest.

(point 9 is because the number is 18 - one chit and 80% chance of a second chit - if France is conquered or Vichied, but this is halved for a surrender)

Another problem for later on in the war, regarding the It's War chart, is that there are times when a higher entry level actually reduces the chance of the US making a successful DoW. However once the US has a chance to enter the war, it would be a mistake to surrender France and give up many potential locations for US troops to land without having to invade. So in summary I'd say:
- make an estimate of the US "at war" number for one more entry chit versus two more
- if the "at war" number is zero (i.e. can't happen) then ignore this factor
- if the "at war" number is likely to reduce even 10% or is currently at 5 or more, do not surrender
- if the "at war" number is likely to increase then subtract the difference times 20 percent, FREX if it is projected to go from a 2 to a 3, then the factor is -20%

[composer99]

Paul:

if the "at war" number is likely to increase then subtract the difference times 20 percent, FREX if it is projected to go from a 2 to a 3, then the factor is -20%

Shouldn't a substantial increase in the likelihood of the US entry when it is still below 40% (or so) increase the likelihood of a surrender?

[Extraneous]

ORIGINAL: peskpesk

After your comments I have modified the Surrender rule for France suggestion, new version.

Surrender rule for France

Precondition:
- Euro Axis controls at least 8 French printed Factories.
- France controls at least one controls colony to use as new home country

Base: 10%.

Modifications:
• For each additional Euro Axis controlled printed French factory + 5 %
• For each French land unit below 10 in Metropolitan France + 5%
• For each French land unit above 10 in Metropolitan France - 5%
• For each French controlled railed factory in Metropolitan France - 3%
• For each CW/US land unit in Metropolitan France - 2%
• For each Euro Axis controlled minor port in Metropolitan France +1%
• For each Euro Axis controlled major port in Metropolitan France +2%
• For each Euro Axis controlled resource in Metropolitan France +1%
• Game turn Nov/Dec + 10 %
• For each Year > 1940 – 5%
• US entry is low* + 10%
• Germany at war with USSR -10%
• Germany at war with USA -10%
• France controls Toulouse -5 %
• France controls Paris -5 %
• Axis controls Paris +10 %

* if important US Entry Options has not been able to be chosen due to low US entry OR if its low chance that the USA can declare war due to low US entry.

[:)] How about...

13.7.1 Conquest
Now choose a new home country for the units of the conquered home country. Conquered Commonwealth home countries can pick another Commonwealth home country (e.g. if Britain is conquered, you could pick Canada as the new home country for British units). Other conquered major power home countries (and Commonwealth if you want), can pick any aligned minor home country. Conquered minor countries can pick either any home country of their controlling major power or any home country that the minor country itself controls.

- France controls at least one colony to use as new home country (aligned minor home country not colony).
changed to
- The surrender of France would result in incomplete conquest.

and

• US entry is low* + 10%
changed to
• The US entry level against the Euro Axis > than 24 and US war number against the Euro Axis < 5 * + 10%


On the “9.4 IT’S WAR CHART” cross-index the US entry level against the Euro Axis with the US tension level against the Euro Axis to find the US war number against the Euro Axis.

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

I'm not sure the US entry is even a consideration. It is unlikely that the difference of point 9 of a chit (i.e. one chit) is going to have a big effect, especially in 1940 when average chit values are smallest.

(point 9 is because the number is 18 - one chit and 80% chance of a second chit - if France is conquered or Vichied, but this is halved for a surrender)

Another problem for later on in the war, regarding the It's War chart, is that there are times when a higher entry level actually reduces the chance of the US making a successful DoW. However once the US has a chance to enter the war, it would be a mistake to surrender France and give up many potential locations for US troops to land without having to invade. So in summary I'd say:
- make an estimate of the US "at war" number for one more entry chit versus two more
- if the "at war" number is zero (i.e. can't happen) then ignore this factor
- if the "at war" number is likely to reduce even 10% or is currently at 5 or more, do not surrender
- if the "at war" number is likely to increase then subtract the difference times 20 percent, FREX if it is projected to go from a 2 to a 3, then the factor is -20%

• Game turn Nov/Dec + 10 %
• For each Year > 1940 – 5%
• Germany at war with USSR -10%
• Germany at war with USA -10%

Should adjust the possibilities of late game French surrender checks.

While the value of the US entry chits id dependent of what the US player draws.

The values of the US tension level against Axis are decided by the number of US entry options the US player chooses.

ORIGINAL: WIFFE_RAW-7.0.pdf ~ 13.3.2 US entry options
The US entry options chart lists political choices available to you. Each option is targeted against Japan (Ja), Germany/Italy (Ge/It), or all three (if neither is specified).

If the entry option is aimed at a particular major power, you must move a marker from its entry pool to its tension pool. If there are no markers in the entry pool, the USA can never declare war on that pool’s major power(s).

If the entry option is not aimed at any particular major power, you must move a randomly chosen marker from an entry pool of your choice to any tension pool.

FYI

ORIGINAL: WIFFE_RAW-7.0.pdf ~ 9.4 US entry
There are modifications to the die roll. All modifiers are cumulative:

When attempting to declare war on Germany and/or Italy;
-2 if the UK has been conquered.

When attempting to declare war on Japan;
-2 if China has been conquered.
-1 if China hasn’t been conquered but a Japanese unit is in China.
+2 if the US fleet is not in Pearl Harbor (see 13.3.2, entry option 26).

When attempting to declare war on any Axis major power;
+3 if you have not yet chosen US entry option 34 - Pass War Appropriations Bill (see 13.3.2).
-1 if the USA is at war with any major power.



The US can’t even attempt (see below) to declare war (see 9.2) on an Axis major power if its entry level against that major power is less than 25.

[paulderynck]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Paul:

if the "at war" number is likely to increase then subtract the difference times 20 percent, FREX if it is projected to go from a 2 to a 3, then the factor is -20%

Shouldn't a substantial increase in the likelihood of the US entry when it is still below 40% (or so) increase the likelihood of a surrender?

No, the likelihood of US Entry would almost always be higher if France is conquered because the US would get one more chit. (I doubt the estimated difference between .9 and 1.8 chits would move you two columns on the It's War chart.) So you should always be better off making the axis declare Vichy or go for a conquest.

AAMOF from the axis AI point of view, the closer the US is to being able to declare war, the more probable the axis strategy should be to dispense with France as soon as possible, so that the Wallies need to invade, rather than just land on French controlled hexes.

[Dr Deo]

I've read several posts suggesting saving oil in Syria. Well, is it worth the build point to create the oil marker there (assuming you play with option 14: synth oil plants)? I would have thought every bp counts in the defense of Paris...

[Extraneous]

ORIGINAL: Dr Deo

I've read several posts suggesting saving oil in Syria. Well, is it worth the build point to create the oil marker there (assuming you play with option 14: synth oil plants)? I would have thought every bp counts in the defense of Paris...

([:D] It’s all about the 13.5.1 Oil (AfA option 48) [:D])

While 1 saved oil starts in Metropolitan France (RAW7scenario.pdf). France may want to save oil in Syria to keep their reserve from being over run. It’s up to the French player.


FYI

ORIGINAL: WiF production Excel worksheet

1939 French Production 5 BP
1940 French Production 7 BP

ORIGINAL: PionsWiF-AiF-PatiF Excel worksheet

ARM – 6 BP 4 turns
MECH - 6 BP 3 turns
MOT – 3 BP 3 turns
INF – 3 BP 2 turns
GARR – 2 BP 2 turns

Saved oil marker – 1 BP

ORIGINAL: WIFFE_RAW-7.0.pdf ~ 13.3.2 US entry options

34. Pass War Appropriations Bill (requires option 22)
22. Gear up production (requires a tension level of at least 11 against all major powers on the other side)

- Euro Axis controls at least 8 French printed Factories.

Base: 10% (1.25 per factory).

• For each additional Euro Axis controlled printed French factory + 5 %
• For each French controlled railed factory in Metropolitan France - 3%


Why make the value of the original 8 factories less than additional Euro Axis controlled printed factories and railed factories?