Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[BBfanboy]

Landings at Vanoruko?? What the heck for! I thought he was pulling back from SOPAC because you were threatening a "Bobbitt attack" there.
Does that island help form a defence line or something?
Either way, commitment of forces out there helps you in DEI. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

Vonoruko is vacant, so he can land three shepherd boys and a goat and take the place.
 
But your larger point is well taken.  Why fight way out here when the enemy is already embedded in your vitals?

[paullus99]

Maybe a vain attempt to get you to look in another direction, now that he's starting his operations again in the DEI. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the available combat power to mount a credible threat in multiple locations anymore (since you are ignoring the Pacific anyway - it is also a moot point).

If he does, in fact, commit to a Sumatran campaign, it is going to be very bloody. Much bloodier, in fact, than what happened in the Solomons due to the overlapping series of large airbases available on both sides - but, in this case, his biggest airbase - Singapore, isn't in any way secure & can in fact prove to be a liability based on your position.

It will be a good fight, not a fair fight, since you are well-positioned, but it will be fun to watch nevertheless.

[Capt. Harlock]

But your larger point is well taken. Why fight way out here when the enemy is already embedded in your vitals?

Just possibly Chez may be hoping to provoke a commitment to the area. (It generally takes considerably more troops to throw the IJA off an island than the Japanese have to expend taking the island.) Is there any sign of Japanese airbases being built to interfere with the supply routes to Australia?

[Canoerebel]

Any attempt to land in eastern Sumatra would be a "banzai charge" at this point.  That would be in keeping with Japanese philosophy, but it would be hopeless. 
 
A major land campaign marching from western Sumatra to the eastern end would be safer, take much longer, and be just as futile.
 
IE, Sumatra is no longer a viable option for Japan.
 
At this point he should be preparing his MLR - including Singkwang and the bases on the Malay peninsula, but I think he's doing three things:  (a) feeding a meeting engagement at Singkep and Muntok, (b) stockpiling troops at Cam Ranh Bay to possibly invade Sumatra, and (c) beginning to strongly garrison Miri and Brunei.  Only the third activity is beneficial to him, IMO.

[BBfanboy]

Garrisoning Brunei and Miri is only marginally beneficial - they are quite isolated and once you have bombers at Sinkawang they can be bombed to uselessness. The only thing a garrison does is deny them to you, but you don't need them because you have Palembang's huge oil/fuel output. Sending more troops to be isolated at those two places just benefits you.
If he doesn't move agressively to kick you out of Borneo completely his next line of defence will be between Borneo and Mindanao, and from northern Malaya to Rangoon. He needs to keep Bangkok for its rail junctions to hold Indochina. Even defending that shortened perimeter will become difficult within six months, and North Pacific is another vulnerable spot. He has more leaks in the dike than he has fingers and toes!

[Canoerebel]

BB, under ordinary circumstances you might be right in your assessment, but not under the particular circumstances of this game.

First, the Allies cannot strategic bomb in the DEI until 1944 per house rule.

Second, I don't need the oil, but Japan certainly does.

Third, Steve has to establish an MLR somewhere. He should be doing so at Singkawang, but failing to do that, Miri and Brunei are very important choices. An Allied move up the Borneo coast will be out of range of LRCAP, meaning the Allies would have to commit their carriers. That's exactly what Steve needs and wants...and what I won't give (and don't need to, since I'm so vastly far ahead of schedule).

[JeffroK]

A major advantage of Chex digging in at Miri & Brunei is that it makes it a major effort for CR to base from them.

They would otherwise be an easy stepping stone to control Northern Borneo and be able to project further into the Sth China Sea.

A move denying you a position is just as valuable as an operation capturing a base.

[BBfanboy]

Just had another look at the map and I see what you mean about going east of Singkawang if you still are not sure you can take on KB.
However, once you tidy up that little mess around Muntok and Singkep and suppress or take Singers, I like the idea of taking Goot Natoena, the island 5 hexes NNE of Singkawang. Good way to extend into the sea without leaving your own cover. The island is AF 0(5) but unfortunately Port0(0).

[princep01]

CR, I hope you will at least examine the possibility of a Spring invasion of Shanklin Is or other objectives in the far north. If Chez really does engage in the DEI and it is still raging when winter draws to a close, that would be a great way to jerk his chain and perhaps get you some bases close enough to Japan to start strat bombing with B-24s and B-17s by May 1943. I'd say that a Greyjoy stroke might be a bit ambitious that early, but laying the groundwork for the arrival of the B-24Js and B-17F/Gs might pay dividends. During the winter, grabbing other bases in the eastern Pacific might be a good way to build experience, harvest some points and further weaken the IJN.

Anyway, keep up the good work in the DEI.

[Canoerebel]

BB, yup.  As soon as I take Singkawang, I plan to airlift some base force personnel to the chain of islands stretching to the west (true).  PBYs based there will provide good info and "yank Steve's chain."
 
Princep, of course that seems like the logical course of action.  But in weighing the benefits and detriments, I'm inclined not to plan for an invasion of Sikhalin Island.  Here's the complex reasoning, which is just another good illustration of the tremendous complexity of AE:
 
1.  Right now, Shikuka is wide open.  Steve may be negligent and leave it open, or he may be using it as bait.  I rate the odds of him failing to protect Shikuka as low but possible.
 
2.  I don't have any units and only a few ships that I can commit to NoPac by spring (everything is in the DEI and the southern Pacific).  I will receive some reinforcements between now and then.  Should I hold them in place for possible use in NoPac on the chance that Steve is negligent, or send them right to the DEI where I know they will be of use?  I'm going with the latter.
 
3.  The Allies will be committing additional troops to strengthen Onne and Paramushiro as I continue to build those airfields.  By spring, I want to be able to hit Toyohara's (or is it Shikuka's?) oil. 
 
4.  There is a chance the Allies could move into NoPac in a big way in late '43 or '44 if things went awry in the DEI or if I need a "second front."

[Schlemiel]

There's oil in both Toyohara and Shikuka I believe.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Schlemiel

There's oil in both Toyohara and Shikuka I believe.

Shikuka has 30 Oil. There is none at Toyohara but it has a huge resource output.
On Hokkaido, three bases have 5 Oil each: Ashikawa, Sapporo and Muroran.
On Honshu, the closest oil is at Akita which has 32 Oil.

[princep01]

CR, I guess I stressed the Kurile approach too much in my last post, but the point I was really trying to make is just don't succumb to tunnel vision in the DEI. It is easy to do over such valuable real estate. Leave options open by starting some units in the planning/prep process for other areas now. The DEI is well defended and you currently have significant offensive punch there. I understand your reasoning for keeping it the primary area of offensive ops, but one can create valuable opportunities and, perhaps decisive ones, elsewhere.

Fun and informative AAR. Thanks for taking the time to write it. I have learned a great deal from you and others by reading it.

[Historiker]

1.  Right now, Shikuka is wide open.  Steve may be negligent and leave it open, or he may be using it as bait.  I rate the odds of him failing to protect Shikuka as low but possible.

I had a game where I invaded Hokkaido. If you can muster 4 divisions, you have a warwinner.
Take enough Baseforces and planes with you, because before he can react, you'll already have CAP over your own bases. If you manage to hold out, all of Japan is in range of your 4e bombers stationed there.

Thanks to that experience, I often agreed to exclude that option in the HRs. [:)]

[princep01]

Oh, I forgot....I wouldn't fret knocking out the small amount of oil in northern Japan. That is a miscule consideration. The real value of securing a position there is possessing bases for strategic bombing of everything...EVERYTHING...in that part of the Empire. As you have seen in Greyjoy's fascinating AAR, the abilty of Japan to produce large (impossibily large) numbers of airframes in Scenario2, with PDU on, is real. The sooner the Allied bombers can start destroying air factories and research, the better. From what I have gleened from the AARs, city fire bombing is the way to go as it actually destroys the factories for good (they otherwise can repair). If I were going the northern route, that would be the goal.....not the destruction of a small cache of oil.

[princep01]

Historiker, or is it Strangelove, you and I think the sameway there. The Japanese player that ignores the north is making himself a sitting duck. I think our man Chez is doing exactly that. The only reason he has anything up there is that the Allies already have two islands there.

But, as a note of caution, winter is not a good time to actually invade anything in the north (the Winter Zone, at least). I think CR is correct to concentrate on the DEI for now. Next spring....well, I'd sure be ready to do something very tragic to the Empire there if the opportunity was there.

[Canoerebel]

The Allies have placed a high priority on securing Onne and Para this winter for those reasons:  It gives Allied 4EB a position from which to hit Hokkaido and Sikhalian Island and a vector for bigger things later should there be opportunities or needs.
 
The Allies won't have a single narrow focus in the DEI.  The campaign in that region, which will rage in 1943, will include the DEI, Southeast Asia and China.  That's a huge front. 
 
In the DEI, the Allied moves will not only include the current path north from Sumatra, but also the eastern DEI.  Already (as regular readers know), the Allies have occupied Merauke and have TFs enroute to Saumlaki and Taberfane.
 
The Allies also have good positions in the Pacific to whittle away at Japan a bit - from Milne Bay looking north and west, from Ndeni looking south and west, and from Tarawa to the west.
 
 

[Historiker]

ORIGINAL: princep01

Historiker, or is it Strangelove, you and I think the sameway there. The Japanese player that ignores the north is making himself a sitting duck. I think our man Chez is doing exactly that. The only reason he has anything up there is that the Allies already have two islands there.

But, as a note of caution, winter is not a good time to actually invade anything in the north (the Winter Zone, at least). I think CR is correct to concentrate on the DEI for now. Next spring....well, I'd sure be ready to do something very tragic to the Empire there if the opportunity was there.

I haven't followed the AAR for long enough.
Which bases are already in the hands of the evil dogfaced imperialists?

[Canoerebel]

11/24/42
 
Borneo:  The stakes are rising in the campaign for the critical base of Singkawang.  Steve sent in a big fast transport TF (one CL and 24 DD), which tangled with an Allied TF led by CA Devonshire.  Five IJN DDs and the CL were set afire, while none of the Allied vessel suffered any damage.  The Japanese did land roughly 1,000 reinforcements, which is something I'll have to work hard to stop.  The Allied army marching for Sing only made five miles today (ack!) - a total of 18 in two days.  If they continue at a pace of five/day, it will take another 14 days or so to make the journey.  Steve can bring in alot of reinforcements over in that period.  The Allies will post LRCAP over the base and continue sending in nightly combat TFs (while Devonshire TF replenishes, the CA Pensacola TF will step in).
 
Singkep:  Steve is working this base hard, trying to get reinforcements in. CA Chikuma took two 1,000 pounders from SBDs, so she may be out of action for a few weeks.  This is important, because he's running short of capital ships available to contest Singkawang, should he choose to do so.  I think the Allies will lose Singkep, but I'm going to airlift in some units today in hopes that it will worry him and rattle him as he tries to prioritize between Singkep and Singkawang.
 
Burma:  The Allied attack in the jungle south of Toungoo failed.  We'll try again tomorrow, hoping another nudge following some bombing attacks will work.
 
NoPac:  Quiet.