Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
BTW, you have been doing a bunch of amphibious invasion and garrison reductions. Are ant of your ground units picking up significant experience? Same question for your fleet

Yes, the ground units that took Ketoi, Uruppu and Wakkanai picked up meaningful excperience.

As best I can tell, the ships involved in the almost non-stop bombardment cycles haven't picked up meaningful experience. It's sobering to look at a ship and see experience of 59/57 or the like. In 1945? After running successful bombardment missions for three months.

[Canoerebel]

1/12/45

Etorofu: 4EB strikes vs. ground troops at Wakkanai register meager hits. So far as I know, bombing raises disruption on enemy units even if no "hits" register.

The 2EB at Toyohara stood down today.

[JohnDillworth]

As best I can tell, the ships involved in the almost non-stop bombardment cycles haven't picked up meaningful experience. It's sobering to look at a ship and see experience of 59/57 or the like. In 1945? After running successful bombardment missions for three months.

That is discouraging. I presume those ships have also had a touch of surface combat and carrier escort too. Maybe bombardments don't add to experience?

[BBfanboy]

In addition to unseen disruption, you get fatigue increases and eventually morale decreases. Keep the pressure on when you can. [:)]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

As best I can tell, the ships involved in the almost non-stop bombardment cycles haven't picked up meaningful experience. It's sobering to look at a ship and see experience of 59/57 or the like. In 1945? After running successful bombardment missions for three months.

That is discouraging. I presume those ships have also had a touch of surface combat and carrier escort too. Maybe bombardments don't add to experience?

I think bombardments contribute experience at lower starting levels, but beyond about 50 crew experience it looks like it stops. Getting your ship damaged gives you more experience than shooting does! [:D]

[Canoerebel]

1/12/45

Etorofu: The mutual bombardments show there is a weakness to the Japanese units here. Ordinarily, with 3x terrain and heavy forts, the decline in IJ unit AV would be agonizingly slow, this early in the campaign.

But Erik has been drawing down his units, and they lack heavy weapons. The first Allied probing attack will likely take place in two or three days.

In the past, Erik has reinforced his garrisons (Ketoi, Uruppu, Wakkanai) by air during each campaign. I'll monitor this one but I'll be surprised if he repeats that tactic. He's already mentally backed away here, and the big disparity in raw AV should further discourage him from making the effort.

[Canoerebel]

1/12/45

Woods Hex Near Wakkanai: Erik is probing here. The IJ bombardment inflicted 4x damage on the Japanese.

I think we are fighting two very different campaigns here. I can't go into details for quite some time. If I'm right, and if things work out as I hope, this will become apparent in perhaps four weeks.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, gents, for all the pointers regarding AGCs and Amphib Force HQs and ship experience and how bombing affects ground troops. I don't reply to your posts to thank you, as often as I should. But I read and appreciate each post.

[Canoerebel]

1/13/45

As a new turn begins, I'm interested in seeing what happens at Etorofu, where I made a last-minute decision to attack with two armored battalions. The objective is to test forts and see if the enemy garrison shows any sign of weakness.

Etorofu: As a stop-gap measure until I can get the big TFs lined up, this CL/DD TF bombarded. I don't expect Erik to attack the Allied shipping here today, but there's always the loitering thought, "If not yesterday, why not today? If not today, when?"

[Canoerebel]

1/13/45

Hokkaido: In the aftermath of the big naval and air battles around Hokkaido the past month or two, Erik hasn't employed much air ASW forward, nor many ASW TFs - a sensible reaction to the losses suffered interacting with Allied CAP, etc. In the vacuum, Allied subs have crept forward, providing detection info and serving as tripwires.

This altercation takes place SW of Sapporo. I'll re-examine detection levels on subs in the area today to see if Erik is ramping up ASW patrols. If so, the usual countermeasures will go into effect.

[Canoerebel]

1/13/45

Etorofu: All 2EB at Toyohara set to hit enemy troops at Etorofu. This is the largest and most effective of the missions.

Weather shuts down the 4EB at Shikuka.

[Canoerebel]

1/13/45

Etorofu: An encouraging result at Etorofu today. The enemy garrison won't hold out long, barring intervention in the form of serious reinforcements or a decisive naval victory or naval/air victory.

I don't know if Erik has any plans of contesting Etorofu. I know he's considering possibilities and searching for opportunities.

The Arctic Winter campaign has gone remarkably well for the Allies. Stymied by the unexpectedly early (to me) onset of winter, I had to shift objectives from the upper Kuriles to the lower. Later, Wakkanai was added to the mix. I had originally hoped to take a few of the upper bases during the winter in order to then focus on the lower, when spring came. But Uruppu's collapse followed by the opportunity at Wakkanai has seemingly advanced the timetable considerably.

Like Sherman in the Atlanta Campaign, the Allied victories at Ketoi, Uruppu and Wakkanai, plus the various naval and air clashes, seem to have "outflanked" the Japanese in the upper Kuriles. Erik elected to withdraw large contingents of each garrison.

This campaign accelerated and took a turn for the favorable. Etorofu should take a month or less, meaning it'll still be winter when it wraps up. The Allied plan thereafter is set, though dependent on no misfortune occurring that changes things.

[Canoerebel]

1/13/45

NoPac: The larger picture.

[Canoerebel]

1/13/45

Strategic Map: The largest picture.

[Canoerebel]

1/14/45

A new turn comes in, and I'm looking mainly at two things: (1) the first general Allied attack at Etorofu, and (2) a large sweep of Bangkok, the first in many weeks.

Etorofu: The night phase opens with a strong bombardment that mainly targets support troops.

[Canoerebel]

1/14/45

Etorofu: One amphibious TF continues to unload supply.

After I sent the turn to Erik yesterday, I realized, "Oops! I forgot to detach the Amphib Force HQ from Death Star back to Etorofu to cover reinforcing landings today." But as this turn unfolds, it turns out that the amphibs loading the reinforcements didn't make it to the beach. So I can correct the oversight. But a key part of the day's plan fails - no landings to trigger a Japanese bombardment. Darn.

[Canoerebel]

1/14/45

Etorofu: Dive bombers target the ships in port; 4EB from Shikuka target ground troops, with modest success.

[Canoerebel]

1/14/45

Etorofu: 2EB raids from Toyohara, like this one, accomplish little to the naked eye.

[Canoerebel]

1/14/45

Etorofu: Allied losses were higher than I expected, given how the various attack/defense numbers changed during the course of the turn, but overall Etorofu campaign looks like it is in good shape for a quicker than expected conclusion.

[Canoerebel]

1/14/45

Etorofu: 1st Marine Division took heavy losses. The other divisions, regiments and armored units took modest losses.

One Allied armored battalion will attack tomorrow, and one reinforcing unit should come ashore triggering a Japanese bombardment.

Each day for several days, additional troops will land. I'll try to make sure the next deliberate attack coincides with a landing that triggers a IJN uto-bombardment.