Over here there is a feeling of stillness, with some good news, a lot of bad ones and even more darkening clouds on the horizon.
Milan completed its "Chinese-level" effort, and opened a brand new hospital with 250 specialised beds - created in ten days. While the spaces were already available (the ex-Milan's Fair buildings), the effort was nothing short of amazing. It also underlined again the differences between North and South. My hope is that, should we able to flatten the curve, these structures will be able in the immediate future to absorb the now increasing number of cases in the South.
Southern Italy is deteriorating, and I fear that the "social revolt day" is getting nearer. Now we are seeing people "robbing" supermarkets (they fill up a supermarket trolley and the they just run away without paying). Not to mention the many thefts that are taking place in some cities, as the shops are closed, without any surveillance. The Police is deployed to protect this places, but they are stretched very thin. Some small towns are reporting up to three robberies every night.
The "Money for Food Decree" plus the 600 Euros already promised by the government to all freelances, starting from April, 1st,
should have bought some money in the pockets of the Italians. You had to register (if not already registered) to the "INPS" site - the National Institution for Social Safety - and from there get your money. On every conceivable media the Government assured that there was not a "click day" and that the money was always available until the emergency ended.
Of course, the very moment March 31st turned to April 1st the INPS site was utterly destroyed by the number of contacts (the peak was 300,000 at the same time). There even was a moment when you entered your credentials only to get another random person's web page. Now everything is truly down.
While a lot of people are screaming against the unpreparedness of the government, I disagree with them. This was an opportunity to show social consciousness. Instead it turned into the usual "the Italians must show social consciousness! - except me." This situation is evolving.
Heartwarming news from Naples. People prepare both warm and cold food, put it into a basket, and
lower it from their windows for the homeless and those who cannot buy food. The basket stays down and more fortunate people can add food to it. The motto is: "If you have, give. If you don't have, take." This initiative is growing, but still limited to Naples and surroundings.
And now for the darkening clouds. Harvest season is near. We are talking about harvesting vegetables, grain, fruits... the most basic foods. About 200,000 people are needed for it, this year (you will see why). In "normal" times this would be the kind of job for immigrants and seasonal workers coming from outside the country.
Let's consider immigrants first. In the farming sector hiring an Italian would costs four more times than hiring an immigrant. The latter gets 4-500 Euro/month, with no expenses for social security, total flexibility and immediate firing should him "not behave". Be assured that you will find a replacement up stat.
Even worse, many immigrants are actually "managed" by criminal organisations that "look for jobs" for them and then take a cut of their salary. Or they can just work illegally.
This, however, covers only a percentage of the workers needed during the harvest period (the actual number of immigrants being usually inflated for political reasons). The rest is
usually covered by thousands "seasonal workers" who arrive in Europe (exp. Italy, France, Germany and Spain) from Eastern Europe, Morocco and other African and Asian countries. The overall number for Italy is about 370,000/year. But, alas, this year we have the lockdown. Some were already here for the early harvests. About half of them fled before being quarantined. Those who remained had their visa already been prolonged. The rest just won't come, creating the "need for 200,000 workers" void I mentioned earlier.
Hooray! Jobs for the currently idle Italians, then? Well... it is more complex than that.
First, you have to find your workers in a country under
internal lockdown too. Unless the government issues a specific decree, I cannot hire someone in Lombardy to come in Sicily and harvest my oranges. And should this happen without rigorous testing measures (an impossible task), the sheer number of people moving to the harvest areas will, "de facto" break the quarantine and cause a disaster. Second (and this is true for any kind of worker), during this viral emergency the employers must observe the rules of social distancing, hygiene and security for the workers (with most of the Italians they got being totally untrained in this kind of job in the first place). No more "Everyone! Climb in the truck! Let's go!" Well, you can do that - and find down the road that your workforce is reduced to zero due to the virus.
[France, I read, does seem to disregard the internal quarantine, and is calling "all the idle people" (owners of restaurants, hotels, non-essential services... even students) to fill the void "so that all of us can eat." They, too, need 200,000 more workers.]
The net result, no matter what, will be a marked slowdown of harvests everywhere, with a percentage of products unavoidably left rotting.
And then the ironic part: due to an unusually warm winter, many "products of the land" are ripening faster. Strawberries and asparagus are already rotting in the void. The rest of the harvest season is almost upon us.
I almost forgot! Imports/Exports! No. Forget about them. Well, some countries, like Kenya, are still exporting - at 300% the usual price. The EU is trying to create a new set of rules to facilitate the internal circulation of fresh products - but you must
have a surplus of fresh products to circulate them.
Now, believe it or not, all of the above is only the "rock". Explaining the "hard place" is much simpler: since a couple of months many workers choose to not work at all for fear of the virus, and it was so sudden that it was impossible to replace them in time. The fields and orchards assigned to them are barren.
There is no way around it. We will have shortages in the markets and most of the "basic food" prices will go up. This will affect everyone, even the rich, because you cannot buy something that it is not there. But the impact on the poors will be devastating - in a situation where Italy is already a ticking bomb.
"Yes darling, I served in the Navy for eight years. I was a cook..."
"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"
(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")
; Julia Child