Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

1/14/45

Air Losses: Allied sweeps of Bangkok turned out pretty well, a 2:1 victory.

When Etorofu appears to be in hand (probably about a week), I'll resume the sweeps of Erik's main fighters bases on Hokkaido. I think the air war is the key to victory now - and it's a tough war to win. Erik's good and he has good planes and pilots.

[Canoerebel]

1/14/45

Opposing Carriers Forces: Just 21 hexes of separation.

[JohnDillworth]

I think the air war is the key to victory now - and it's a tough war to win.

His oil/resources /economy is probably in pretty good shape. If so he can out produce you in aircraft so this might be a heavy lift for a while

[Canoerebel]

The plan is to seize several big Home Island airfields (probably Hokkaido) over the next four months. This should give Allied fighters the proximity needed to support the strategic bombing campaign against enemy aircraft and engine factories.

By mid-summer, I hope the Allies will be in a position to "pick up and move" in a major way to the "other side" of Japan - Manchuria, Korea, China, or Taiwan - thus isolated the Home Islands.

As that's taking place, Russia will become active and the Western Allies and Russia will (I think) shoot for making a connection with the Burma contingent of Allies troops.

And, at some point, the British will lead an invasion of Malaya or Sumatra.

When I took over effective 3/1/44, I was skeptical that the Allies would be in position to win until 1946, as I've mentioned before. Unless I'm misreading how things are developing, I think there's a fair chance the Allies will win in 1945, toward the end of the year.

Lots of fighting to do to approach that objective.

[JohnDillworth]

Is China getting adequate supply?

[Canoerebel]

I don't know. I don't have any troops there.

Erik took all of China before I stepped in. With the exception of probes along the frontier, the Chinese are awaiting the distant day when the Japanese position becomes untenable.

[Canoerebel]

1/15/45

The main Allied op this turn is to land a reinforcing Aussie brigade at Etorofu to trigger an auto bombardments.

Towards the end of the last turn, I spent some time thinking about possible enemy attacks. My biggest concern was the Allied shipping at Etorofu and Uruppu, so adjustments were made to move what I could and to beef up LRCAP over the others. As it turned out, there was a threat but it wasn't the one I allowed for.

Etorofu: Main dispositions at the start of the turn.

[Canoerebel]

1/15/45

Etorofu: A small bombardment TF helps suppress the enemy airfield, which was heavily damaged during previous bombing raids and ship bombardments.

[Canoerebel]

1/15/45

Etorofu: With the benefit of an Amphib Force HQ in the hex, and Aussie brigade lands in good shape. It'll be useful in the coming attacks, but a primary purpose of each reinforcing amphibious assault is to trigger the Japanese bombardments that are so self-destructive.

[Canoerebel]

1/15/45

Etorofu: Every turn has many little dramas.

[Canoerebel]

1/15/45

Etorofu: This is unusual and ominous. For the first time during this invasion, Erik stages fighters forward. Erik inserts fighters at Etorofu, where the airfield is damaged but not enough (he took a chance that the Allies might bombard, but timed it so that he'd miss the biggest TF, so I'll take that into consideration in the future). He's sweeping the fighters at Uruppu, which are protecting shipping there, including the next bombardment TF.

At this point, my main concern is that he'll wear out the CAP at Uruppu and the LRCAP at Etorofu, and then send in strike aircraft against the shipping. Uh oh.

[Canoerebel]

1/15/45

Etorofu: Erik likes to use the KI-83 to sweep, the preferred role that you gents alerted me to when it first showed up. This sweep gets the best of my guys and opens the shipping to enemy strikes.

If Erik ends up with damaged fighters at Etorofu, he can't withdraw them via rail. I'll target the airfield tomorrow, but the results will probably be meager.

[Canoerebel]

1/15/45

Etorofu: Allied sweep encounters stiff CAP over the enemy airfield. The sweepers perform well, but there aren't enough. I have LRCAP posted over the base to protect the shipping here, too, but the threat of an enemy air strike is growing.

[Canoerebel]

1/15/45

Etorofu: Following one more small Corsair sweep, 2EB come in from Toyohara and get chewed up by the CAP. A number of similar strike packages follow this one, including one where a bunch of Venturas get shot down (reported as 15, the actual number may be 2x or more).

[Canoerebel]

1/15/45

Etorofu: The sweeps and 2EB wear down the enemy CAP so that the final six or eight small raids aren't molested. The way is clear for the 4EB to strike....but they don't come until the afternoon phase...by which time the enemy CAP is refreshed and prepared to deal with the attackers, especially the escorts.

[Canoerebel]

1/15/45

Etorofu: The 4EB wear out the enemy CAP but don't score many hits. A belated fighter sweep finds no opposition.

[dave sindel]

Dan, I thoroughly enjoy these "play by play" narratives. Makes me feel like I am looking over your shoulder while you watch the replay

[Canoerebel]

1/15/45

No enemy strikes against Allied shipping. Erik won a nice air victory today. I'm fortunate to have escaped strikes against my shipping.

Etorofu: The news is good on the ground. The little land battles at Etorofu went well today, and the condition of the enemy units suggests they are weak and ripe for defeat.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: dave sindel

Dan, I thoroughly enjoy these "play by play" narratives. Makes me feel like I am looking over your shoulder while you watch the replay

Hey, Dave, thanks for reading!

[Canoerebel]

1/15/45

Air Losses: The ugly totals for the day.

The Hellcat and Corsair losses are the only ones that really hurt, assuming this kind of thing doesn't happen regularly.

The silver lining is that Erik lost 40+ good fighters.