Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

1/15/45

Etorofu: The reinforcing brigade came ashore in lovely condition, thanks to the Amphib Force HQ.

Planning for this turn and the next few turn depends on the condition of the Allied units that attacked here yesterday. If they're reading to attack tomorrow or the day after, I'm likely to implement a Plan A regarding Death Star. If it looks like they need at least two more days, a Plan B will go into effect. Both require lots of clicks.

[Canoerebel]

Surprisingly it seems that the army is ready to attack again. Even 1st Marine Division is ready to go, with 10/15 on disruption/fatigue. So Plan A, which is the one I preferred, goes into effect with a lot of moving parts.

[Canoerebel]

1/15/45

NoPac: An important general attack to take place at Etorofu, tomorrow.

And I believe the circumstances are right to detach Death Star briefly to handle the ingress/egress mission. That will be complicated, but the inbound material and reinforcements are considerable. DS won't be far away, should an emergency arise.

[Canoerebel]

1/16/45

As a new turn begins, I'm most interested in two things: (1) How will the Allied attack at Etorofu go (the last one, just two days ago, came off at 1:2, but I swear it seems like the enemy is ripe for defeat), and (2) Will there be any Japanese interference with the critical ingress/egress mission?

Etorofu: The turn opens with a non-nuclear bombardment.

These bombardment runs are long enough to lead to meaningful wear and tear to the ships. The ships perform these missions at flank speed, which is the issue. I'm leaning towards slowing the mission down, so that the flank speed is never further than 2 hexes (the distance from Uruppu, where the missions will start and end), to minimize accumulated damage. Staying power is high on my list of priorities, especially for these big BBs.

[Canoerebel]

1/16/45

Etorofu: LST TF landing most of a tank battalion. The purpose is known to all (including Obvert): to trigger a Japanese bombardment.

With Death Star moving away briefly, I detached an AKA carrying part of the tank battalion and sent it to follow DS. Shipping at Etorofu will be more exposed the next several turns, so I'll try to limit it to LSTs.

[Canoerebel]

1/16/45

Etorofu: Allied sweeps, 2EB and 4EB again focus on Etorofu, but this time target the airfield in addition to ground troops. The objective is to make sure the airfield is suppressed, after yesterday's Japanese CAP trap.

As expected, Erik didn't contest the hex today. I did expect him to perhaps set up something against Wakkanai or Toyohara, but enemy aircraft were quiet throughout the turn.

[Canoerebel]

1/16/45

Etorofu: The Allied attack nearly takes this base. I probably got a very nice nice roll here. The AE Wizard <chortle> might get even on the next attack, but this base should fall then or on the following attack.

This campaign will wrap up far ahead of schedule. The situation should allow me to suspend TF bombardments while DS is away (reducing exposure here at the tip of the spear). I'll also reduce the air force bombing runs a bit. The army will rest a couple of days and then resume the attack.

This is happening so quickly that I'd like to proceed with a new op as soon as Death Star returns, but I'm limited in my options. To invade, I need either Amphib Force HQs highly prepped or units highly prepped. The HQs have relatively low prep at the moment. The only army highly prepped is for Shimishura Jima - all at 100% and in overpowering numbers. Erik has drawn down his garrison to just 27k, so I'll chance it despite the Cold Zone winter conditions.

Erik is making reasoned trade-offs in withdrawing his Kuriles garrisons. The downside to the strategy is that he's reducing his ability to trade territory for time. If Shimishura still had 60k defenders, as it once did, I wouldn't invade until March 1. And if Etororu had its original 70k instead of 46k, it would've held out much longer, giving him additional opportunities to work opportunities to overwhelm at the point of attack, for points victories for aircraft downed or ships sunk.

How all this will play out in the long run remains to be seen.

[Canoerebel]

1/16/45

NoPac: The ingress/egress mission is in good shape. The ingressers will rendezvous with DS tomorrow, so they appear "secure." The egressers will break from DS and head east the day after tomorrow, if everything appears to be in order. The location of KB, if known, plays a part in deciding whether things appear to be "in order."

[BBfanboy]

Nicely done! Japanese were showing disruption in the last attack so your strategy to use auto-bombardment against him has been a good one. Your non-nuclear BB bombardment might also have done more disruption that the Combat Report doesn't show. Now with half his fighting AV destroyed and forts reduced a level the fall of Etorofu is surely imminent, as you have estimated. [:)]

[anarchyintheuk]

I'm still seeing regiments/brigades taking higher absolute and percentage av losses than divisions. I thought that had been fixed/lessened.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

I'm still seeing regiments/brigades taking higher absolute and percentage av losses than divisions. I thought that had been fixed/lessened.

No, it is an artifact of how the game engine works.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

1/16/45

As a new turn begins, I'm most interested in two things: (1) How will the Allied attack at Etorofu go (the last one, just two days ago, came off at 1:2, but I swear it seems like the enemy is ripe for defeat), and (2) Will there be any Japanese interference with the critical ingress/egress mission?

Etorofu: The turn opens with a non-nuclear bombardment.

These bombardment runs are long enough to lead to meaningful wear and tear to the ships. The ships perform these missions at flank speed, which is the issue. I'm leaning towards slowing the mission down, so that the flank speed is never further than 2 hexes (the distance from Uruppu, where the missions will start and end), to minimize accumulated damage. Staying power is high on my list of priorities, especially for these big BBs.

Why make runs at all? Simply park your BB TF in the hex with your ammunition replenishment TF both with remain on station orders and blast away until your ammunition ships run dry. All this under cover of your DS CAP of course.

I experimented with this recently and even though they are sitting in the he with a remain on station order the bombardment TF still bombards at night. Although at this point with air cover it doesn't matter if you're bombarding in day or night phases.

[Canoerebel]

Erik can bring 2,000 aircraft to bear at the tip of the spear, so the Allies can't reliably protect any TF that isn't in the same hex with DS if big enemy bases are nearby. When Etorofu falls, the routine you suggest will be used for the upper Kuriles, from Shimishura-Jima north.

[anarchyintheuk]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

I'm still seeing regiments/brigades taking higher absolute and percentage av losses than divisions. I thought that had been fixed/lessened.

No, it is an artifact of how the game engine works.

Thanks. The more I know the less I remember.

[Canoerebel]

1/17/45

NoPac: A new turn begins and I'm most interested in how the next attack vs. Etorofu fairs and how expeditious the ingress/egress mission will be.

[Canoerebel]

1/17/45

Etorofu: Following a few modest 2EB and 4EB strikes against the base, the Allied attack breaks down the enemy defenses and takes the base.

This happened so fast that prep for the next major target lacks several weeks. The best alternative is to invade Shimishura Jima, which has 27k defenders. The Allies have eight divisions 100% prepped (huge overkill given the recent Japanese withdrawal). The interesting aspect to Shimishura will be to measure the impact of Cold Zone penalties on the invasion.

I'll probably switch some of the Shimishura divisions to future targets. And it's time to change most of the Etorofu-prepped units also.

[Canoerebel]

1/17/45

NoPac: The ingressing herd rendezvoused with Death Star today. The egressing herd - some 800 empties and damaged ships - will remain with DS another day, just in case Erik crafted some kind of ambush. I don't think he has but there's a lot at stake here, and since Etorofu fell, the need for DS in the Kuriles isn't as pressing.

[Canoerebel]

1/17/45

Threat Assessment: Most of my AAR posts deal with Allied ops and plans, but every turn includes a significant amount of time to evaluating and providing for enemy threats.

[Canoerebel]

1/18/45

As the new turn begins, the main point of interest is Death Star. I'll be looking for indications that the egressing herd can break off from Death Star and head east.

Kuriles: One of the few offensive missions undertaken today are some airfield suppression raids against Shasukotan, the first of the war against this base. No opposition encountered and the raids score well.

[Canoerebel]

1/18/45

NoPac: This diagram is fascinating and full of drama for me and is utterly dry to most readers. Only a player can get jazzed about the minutiae of a major logistical undertaking.

I don't see any signs of enemy forces that might bedevil the egressing herd, so it will make its break to the Aleutians tomorrow. There are 700+ ships, so they are worth alot of points. But of those 700+, the vast majority are expendable from a "prosecuting the war" standpoint. The exception is the "wounded combat ship TF" that includes BBs Alabama and Richelieu. Any mishap with them would cause heartburn.

I think this is the last major ingress mission. Nearly all troops have arrived now (reinforcements slow to a trickle untile after Germany surrenders). As for fuel and supplies, that can be handled by routine, relatively small and regular TFs as soon as the Kuriles are wrapped up or nearly so.

This should be the last lull in activity until war's end. I need about two weeks for troops to finish prepping. During that interval, DS will escort the ingressing herd to Shikuka. Then DS will make an important port call to replenish and optimally reconfigure fighter squadron assignments (defense will be much more important than offense in the coming campaign).

In other words: Barring attacks by Erik, things may be quiet for a spell. Then I expect action to be sustained and heavy for many months.

In other words: That's why staying power for Death Star is so vital to Allied late-war strategy.