Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

1/23/45 and 1/24/45

Shimishura-jima: D-Day is tomorrow - at least, in part. A tank regiment aboard LSTs will hit the beach tomorrow. An APA/AKA TF carrying two divisions and arty will load at Ketoi tomorrow - load troops only - and may have enough to also handle landing ops tomorrow. Erik has drawn down his garrison to about 27k, so it's vulnerable. But I am leery of the Cold Zone conditions. If the landings don't go well, ships carrying a larger contingent are already loaded at Shikuka, and ready to sail.

The two ARDs, steaming "naked and afraid," arrived at Ketoi without incident today.

The egressing herd is now mostly east of Dutch Harbor. I still fret over Erik getting clever, but he'd have to bypass alot of picket ships and subs to make it that far without being seen. A few more days and TFs begin arriving at West Coast destinations.

[Mike Solli]

Why is it that at this point in the war you're still sending TFs around unescorted? (Remember, I'm just a dumb JFB that doesn't really know much about the Allied side.)

[Canoerebel]

They have to come either heavily escorted (meaning full Death Star) or with no escort at all. There's no in between, for small or medium-sized escort is subject to being overwhelmed. So most TFs wait at Adak Island and come in escorted by Death Star, but occasionally I try to slip small TFs in. That becomes more and more viable as Erik's presence in the upper Kuriles diminishes.

With the Allies present in the Home Islands now, so close to Japanese naval and air bases that Erik has to defend and wants to defend, math determines how to do things. The Allies outnumber the Japanese. For purposes of example, say that the dispartiy favors the Allies 100 to 70. That means there is no possible way I can divide forces without at least one of the divisions being smaller than what the Japanese can bring to bear. If I divide my forces in two at 50/50, either can be outnumbered at a single point. If I go with a 70/30 division, one can be seriously outclassed and the other is at parity. Etc.

So I have to keep DS together, and it's sometimes worthwhile to take a calculated risk by sending in small, unescorted TFs.

[Mike Solli]

Very interesting. When you say escort, I automatically think defense against subs. You're talking surface raiders (which you mention often). It finally sunk in here. Thanks.

[Canoerebel]

The primary threat is combat TFs, carriers and/or LBA.

Erik has lost so many subs that they currently don't pose a threat to transport TFs in a meaningful way (he's probably hording them for more major action). But the TFs I am referring to do have ASW escorts (DEs).

[Canoerebel]

1/25/45

The focus today is the invasion of a Cold Zone island. Weeks ago, Loka offered from his experience that these landings should be possible, under the right conditions. I don't have an Amphib Force HQ this time, but the troops are 100% prepped, Erik has been steadily withdrawing (weakening) his garrison...and there's a behind-the-curtains purpose for this particular action.

Shimishura: Good bombardment to open the show.

[Canoerebel]

1/25/45

Shimishura: The amphibious assault stats look decent - it looks like the Allied infantry divisions may be taking roughly 15% disablements in landing. If true, that's acceptable.

Little fire from enemy shore guns, again leading me to wonder if Erik stands down his CD units early in an invasion, when the Allied combat ship escorts have lots of ammo, and then unleashes them on turns two or three.

[Canoerebel]

1/25/45

Shimishura: The AV disparity looks good. I started with two divisions purposefully, as I want this campaign to drag out a few weeks.

It appears that Erik has pulled out most of his fighting power. This is 2x terrain with probably six forts. I need to boost supply.

[Canoerebel]

1/25/45

Shimishura: Both Allied divisions incurred roughly 15% disablements. They're in good fighting shape. The armored unit and arty unit are both pristine - 0/4 fatigue/disruption with almost no disablements.

I'll be out of town this weekend to visit family, so no further reports until Sunday or Monday. Y'all have a good one.

[jwolf]

Very interesting psy ops behind the scenes. I am curious to find out if, in the end, they will have had significant effect on your opponent.

[Canoerebel]

Late-game deciption/psy ops may be radically different from early game. In the latter, deception may be essential. In the former (late-game) it is often icing on the cake and can sometimes be detrimental, if the Allied player tip-toes around instead of moving fast with a powerful punch.

Right now, I have about two or three weeks before my next major undertaking is ready. So the question I asked was, "What can I do during this interval to advance the Allied cause and/or possibly mislead Erik?" I came up with a few ideas that are synergistic. Basically, the invasion of Shimishura (and possibly other Kuriles) is meant to create a narrative that isn't quite true. It might not work, but it's not costing me anything nor delaying anything, so it's worth trying.

In the game thus far, I think Allied deception worked twice - the first was meant to give Erik a thought that I was feinting towards NoPac. He picked up on a CVE or two north of the Aleutians and other scattered stuff that looked like bogus material. Perhaps that helped sell him on notions he was already working. For whatever reason, he didn't have NoPac garrisoned well and I think KB was posted far away.

The second was the elaborate misdirection play during the last ingress movement, which I think left Erik thinking "all is normal" when, in fact, the Allies pulled a quick, complicated, and successful invasion of Wakkanai. I can't prove that my deciption contributed one bit, but I do know that Erik wasn't able to bring in reinforcements and that the base wasn't adequately defended.

Erik has gotten me too. He's used his knowledge of my plat to launch a couple of surprise attacks on an egressing DS/Herd and a second egressing Herd. So I try to mix things up, but he's good enought o catch me from time to time.

[Canoerebel]

1/27/45

Preparation: The graphic shows preparation percentages for units at Shikuka. The real key is the amphib force HQ, currently at 57%. I'd like it to be at least 75%, but under a particular set of circumstances, I'd be willing to go at 60%.

The plan is to "go" in about two weeks. That time should be sufficient to wrap up Shimishura and to retrieve target-prepped units that are currently at forward bases like Etorofu and Wakkanai. The fortnight of additional prep will bring most units into the acceptable range.

I'm watching Erik's moves carefully, mainly via recon. I think I understand what he perceives as the most likely vector of attack and how he's setting up his defenses to guard against it. What he's doing fits within my plan paramaters, so at this point I see no reason to alter the timetable.

But there is at least one contingency in which I'd immediately proceed with the invasion.

THere is also at least one contingency in which I'd scrub it and reconfigure entirely (IE, if I thought he had sniffed out my plan and distributed his forces in such a way as to make it too difficult).

[Bearcat2]

There is not enough whiteout on your Allied Ground unit target column or is that a Pysch Op ?

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: Bearcat2

There is not enough whiteout on your Allied Ground unit target column or is that a Pysch Op ?

Against his readers? [:D]

[Canoerebel]

Here's the truth about that. You'll have to figure out later whether it's the whole truth.

When the Allies invaded Sikhalin Island in June 1944, half of my units were prepped for Korea. I was "preparing for success" - on the possibility that the expedition would result in a decisive naval clash that would cripple the Japanese, so that the Allies could then move deeper quickly. That didn't happen, and I came to regret that I didn't instead prep those units for Kuriles targets.

So that particular unit (an engineer) is a relic of the earliest prep targets. Whether that's a future target or not.....

[JohnDillworth]

“Prepping for success” [:D][:D]
I think that has to be the name of you next AAR!
It also describes your evolving play style. No longer are you the humble “Dot Base Dan” we all know and love, you now Prep for Sucsess.

[Canoerebel]

There's a memorable scene in the movie Facing the Giants. In the scene, an old gentleman tells a story about two farmers who are praying for rain. One of them waited for the rain to come, the other one went out and prepared his fields to receive it. The old man asks, "Which one do you think trusted God to send the rain?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAxwS8KyMQQ

[Canoerebel]

1/26/45 and 1/27/45

As the turn of the 27th opens, the things I'm keying on: (1) reinforcing landings at Shimishura, and (2) keeping tabs on enemy movement in the next area of interest.

NoPac: The turn opens with enemy PB TF far out in the Pacific. There was a similar sighting four or five days back. Erik is working an angle out here. I'm allowing for a number of possibilities, ranging from deception to him testing for detection in advance of a combat TF raid or carrier raid.

[Canoerebel]

1/27/45

Shimishura: Fast BB bombardment TF. The combat report says only "29" casualties, but the number of squads destroyed or disables is much higher than that. It was a decent bombardment run.

[Canoerebel]

1/27/45

Shimishura: LCI gunships do good work, preparatory to 3rd Australian Div. and 10th USMC Artillery coming ashore.

The reinforcing landings go well and will trigger an enemy auto-bombardment.

There are two more divisions, tanks and more arty aboard ship. There's already enough ashore to handle the base, but reinforcing landings trigger those bombardments so self-destructive to the Japanese. I think I'm going to send the remaining two divisions back to Shikuka to swtich prep to future targets, keeping at least one tank unit for another reinforcing landing.

I'm in no hurry for Shimi to fall, for reasons I've mentioned previously. If it does end up falling "too early," I might have to orchestrate another quick Kuriles invasion prior to the next big thing.