Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

1/1/42 and 1/2/42

The second wasn't an unpleasant little day...

Eastern DEI: The CL Durban/CL Danae TF, fresh from bushwacking an IJ transport TF at Ternate, is bushwacked in turn by BB Kongo and CA Mikuma southeast of Borneo (this IJN force has now passed through the Sea of Java, which is an ominious forward assertion by my opponent). The two plucky Allied cruisers went under, with four DDs suffering moderate damage.

Western DEI: Still no sign of the Mini KB. Allied AV at Palembang up to 624. The enemy hasn't moved across the causeway to Singapore yet.

NoPac: The Amchitka landings that began on 12/31...well, the ships retired though still 80% loaded...then the troops ashore vanished! I don't know what happened. I don't know why ships unloading retired before they were unloaded. I don't know quite why the troops disappeared. It's probably something to do with Arctic winter conditions, so it may not be possible to conduct this invasion even against a very weak garrison. I've ordered the ships to return, though they won't make it back until tomorrow. We'll give this one more try.

[Cap Mandrake]

The Aleutian taffy may have retired because of an approaching Jap force. I have seen troops in a landing disappear because of supply issues (in standard WITP). Make sure there are some transports with supply only unloading at the same time. I have this superstitious notion that you can't count on the supply that is on the AP's behind the troops.*


*FYI I have not read the manual so this may be an urban myth.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

*FYI I pretend that I have not read the manual so this may be an urban myth.

Fixed your post for you...

[erstad]

NoPac: The Amchitka landings that began on 12/31...well, the ships retired though still 80% loaded...then the troops ashore vanished! I don't know what happened. I don't know why ships unloading retired before they were unloaded. I don't know quite why the troops disappeared. It's probably something to do with Arctic winter conditions, so it may not be possible to conduct this invasion even against a very weak garrison. I've ordered the ships to return, though they won't make it back until tomorrow. We'll give this one more try.

there's a check for combat strength of the landing force versus known enemy strength. Troops can reembark if they feel outnumbered. Affected by commander land and agression ratings. Probably many other things, I know those two were in a dev post.

what kind of transports are you using? Some have pretty awful daily disruption rates, that might be a factor.

[Canoerebel]

1/3/42

Eastern DEI: One of the destroyers damaged in the big naval battle went under, meaning the Allies lost two CL and a DD. Quiet in this area today.

Western DEI: Part of the Sarawak CD unit should unload at Oosthaven tonight. AV at Palembang up to 638 with forts at 2.6. An Indian brigade at 100% prep arrived at Colombo, so I'm diverting the other Indian unit there (28% prepped) to Oosthaven and changing prep to that Sumatran city. There is a chance - a small one, but one I want to prepare for - that Steve will show his cards somewhere in a big enough way to indicate that India will not be his target. If so, I want to be prepared to ship additional units from India to Sumatra, so I'm positioning some xAPs at Colombo and Bombay.

NoPac: I give up - my Amchitka invasion transports refus to stay and unload no matter the orders. So I'm sending the US Army RCT to garrison Attu Island and the Mountain Battalion to garrison Umnak Island. Cobbling together a snap invasion didn't work -I need more supply and more bombardment and quicker unloading ships. I'll try again later if the opportunity still exists.

[Canoerebel]

1/4/42

Western DEI: Palembang AV is up to 657, though I'm sending Sarawak CD/1 (20 AV) to Oosthaven where it will mate up with its two CD guns. That, in turn, will raise Oosthaven's AV to about 135 AV, which hopefully will be bolstered by an Indian brigade currently boarding transports at Colombo. I'm also going to try to retrieve the Tarakan CD unit, which is pretty strong (I should have done this weeks ago). I've shifted 75 good fighters (two elements of the AVG and four small P-40 squadrons evacuated from Manila) to Singapore to try to ambush the daily Japanese raids. No IJ combat ship presence in this area at the moment.

NoPac: Invasion interuptus has left me unfulfilled, but I don't see any way to make lemonade out of these lemons at the moment. The US Army RCT will unload at Attu Island tomorrow; the Mountain Regiment is going to Dutch Harbor rather than Umnak Island. I'll probably withdraw Lex and Sara to the West Coast.

CenPac: A big CD unit is unloading at Midway. A Marine 'chutes battalion will arrive in a few days.

Tale of the Cruisers: The Alllies have lost a handfull of valuable cruisers, some to good purpose, some without accomplishing a thing, and one to bad luck. Here's the tally to date:

CL Marblehead: Torpedoed in the Molucca Straits at the dawn of the war, this badly damaged vessel disbanded in port at Balikpan. Fires continued to rage out of control so that I eventually scuttled this ship.

CAs Australia and Louisville, and CL Perth: After taking part in effective action at Rabaul, these cruisers reported to the Ceram Sea, where in a raid on Ternate they were savaged by a Japanese battleship TF. Australia and Perth went under immediately; Louisville was heavily damaged. I thought she'd make Soerabaja, but out-of-control flooding and bad damage control doomed her.

CA Minneapolis and CL Raleigh: As the Louisville ships vacated the Bismark Sea region for the DEI, the "void" was to be filled by Minneapolis and Raleigh. However, while on a mission to sniff around Tulagi, this TF was bushwacked by all or part of the KB in the vicinity of Luganville. The only good that came of this was knowing the whereabouts of some Japanese carriers.

CLs Danae and Durban: After an effective raid on IJ shipping at Ternate, this TF was well on its way back to Soerabaja when it had the bad luck to blunder into a TF led by BB Kongo and CA Mikuma. The Allied TF fought hard, but ultimately both cruisers and one DD went under.

What else is out there? Right now, the Allied navy in the DEI consists of CAs Exeter and Canberra, a few CLs, and some DDs (all at Soerabaja at the moment). CA Indianapolis is at Brisbane and is the flag of the Allied navy in SoPac. CLs Boise and Mauritius are in the yards at Melbourne for about a month. All other Allied capital ships are either around India, Hawaii, the Aleutians, or the West Coast.

IJ Divisions: I haven't sighted anything outside of China yet, though I have had some decent SigInt reports. At the moment, I don't see any IJ divisions in the Philippines or in Malaya (though SigInt says Imperial Guards is prepping for Singapore). I have had SigInt of IJA divisions heading to Babeldaob and Truk. It seems that Steve is gathering a large force or forces that he intends to spring on the Allies somewhere in a big way. He's moving very slowly in the DEI - probably too slowly - suggesting that his focus may be on a major push somewhere far forward (New Zealand, Oz, Hawaii, etc.). It's so early now that my defenses in these places are very poor, but should he move in that direction, I want to reinforce the Allied garrisons on Sumatra. On the other hand, should he move towards India, I want to be in position to move in NoPac. Still very early, but the Allies are trying to think ahead.

[paullus99]

He's going to regret moving as slowly as he has - although he gets extra resources to play with, they aren't infinite & without the resources to fuel the military machine, he's going to find it hard going as he moves forward. The longer he waits, the stronger you get - and that'll be very painful when the time comes.

[PresterJohn001]

I think Fortress Palembang is definately the strongest opening gambit for the allies, one with little real downside as the Japanese counter is to invade asap ie before any real forces get commited.

I also think it is detrimental for the game, as if successful it effectively cripples the Japanese economy, well done game won in 1941. The Japanese counter is to invade asap, actually day 1 or 2 depending on HR's. All very well but its just adding scripted moves to the start of the game. Japan simply cannot afford to have Palembang wrecked ergo it is the most important hex in the game in 1941. More important than Manilla, Hong Kong, Singapore, Rabual....

[Canoerebel]

In implementing a Fortress Palembang strategy, my aim isn't to wreak havoc on oil production when the base changes hands. As noted previously, if we run into that problem, I'll suggest to Steve that we back up a day, declare a ceasefire in Sumatra, and allow my troops to vacate the hex.

My intention is to simply to hold the base as strongly (and as long) as possible, because it has the best defensive terrain/supply situation in the DEI, making it more attractive than Singapore, Batavia, Soerbaja, or any other base.

If the Japanese player wishes to avoid such a move, he'd better focus on Palembang within the opening two weeks of the war. If he lands two divisions at Oosthaven early, that should take care of the situation (especially if he takes Singkawang early and establishes a strong bomber presence there).

It is by no means too late for Steve to avoid a debacle in this game. I got started a bit late and my troops are mostly a hodge-podge of green Dutch units with low preparation. I have 650 AV at Palembang and another 135 at Oosthaven. Those garrisons will continue to increase, of course, as time goes on. At the moment, Steve can probably deal with the situation by committing two-plus or perhaps three divisions. But with the Allies still holding Singapore, Singkawang, Kuching, Batavia, Soerabaja, Balikpan, Tarakan, Makassar, and Kendari, I get the feeling he'll be concentrating on grabbing some of them first before moving into eastern Sumatra. In two weeks, the Allies could have another 100 AV in Oosthaven (Indian brigade from Colombo) plus a good CD unit (from Tarakan, though extracting it over the next week is going to be iffy as the enemy is close by), plus perhaps another 100 to 150 AV at Palembang.

At some point, Steve may need four or five divisions to attend to eastern Sumatra. This is Scenario Two, so he has four extra divisions to work with, but if he tarries in moving, and brings too little not realizing what he's facing, the situation could turn rather ugly for him.

We'll see.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: PresterJohn

I think Fortress Palembang is definately the strongest opening gambit for the allies, one with little real downside as the Japanese counter is to invade asap ie before any real forces get commited.

I also think it is detrimental for the game, as if successful it effectively cripples the Japanese economy, well done game won in 1941. The Japanese counter is to invade asap, actually day 1 or 2 depending on HR's. All very well but its just adding scripted moves to the start of the game. Japan simply cannot afford to have Palembang wrecked ergo it is the most important hex in the game in 1941. More important than Manilla, Hong Kong, Singapore, Rabual....

Oddly enough I have to agree with my esteemed former opponent. In our game, we had 2400 AS behind level 6 forts with 130k supplies. It was going to take almost every available Japanese asset to move us and then what would be the end result as far as base damage? That said, it is foolish for the Allied player to not make a stand here as the game exists in its present form. It represents great defensive terrain, immunity from BB bombardment, and is self sustaining as far as supplies. In RL it was defended by a single btn and they retreated after two days of battle.

[PresterJohn001]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In implementing a Fortress Palembang strategy, my aim isn't to wreak havoc on oil production when the base changes hands. As noted previously, if we run into that problem, I'll suggest to Steve that we back up a day, declare a ceasefire in Sumatra, and allow my troops to vacate the hex.

My intention is to simply to hold the base as strongly (and as long) as possible, because it has the best defensive terrain/supply situation in the DEI, making it more attractive than Singapore, Batavia, Soerbaja, or any other base.

If the Japanese player wishes to avoid such a move, he'd better focus on Palembang within the opening two weeks of the war. If he lands two divisions at Oosthaven early, that should take care of the situation (especially if he takes Singkawang early and establishes a strong bomber presence there).

It is by no means too late for Steve to avoid a debacle in this game. I got started a bit late and my troops are mostly a hodge-podge of green Dutch units with low preparation. I have 650 AV at Palembang and another 135 at Oosthaven. Those garrisons will continue to increase, of course, as time goes on. At the moment, Steve can probably deal with the situation by committing two-plus or perhaps three divisions. But with the Allies still holding Singapore, Singkawang, Kuching, Batavia, Soerabaja, Balikpan, Tarakan, Makassar, and Kendari, I get the feeling he'll be concentrating on grabbing some of them first before moving into eastern Sumatra. In two weeks, the Allies could have another 100 AV in Oosthaven (Indian brigade from Colombo) plus a good CD unit (from Tarakan, though extracting it over the next week is going to be iffy as the enemy is close by), plus perhaps another 100 to 150 AV at Palembang.

At some point, Steve may need four or five divisions to attend to eastern Sumatra. This is Scenario Two, so he has four extra divisions to work with, but if he tarries in moving, and brings too little not realizing what he's facing, the situation could turn rather ugly for him.

We'll see.

In my latest game as Japan i hit Palembang on turn 2/3, brought in some carriers which also caught Force Z (not locked into the Historic death ride) so it was all good. I'd not read your AAR extensively as i wanted to comment on the companion AAR and i worry about breaking opsec even subconsciously so thank you for clarification on your aims.

You've a strong looking force there already, but early in the war Dutch units flatter to decieve against the experienced Japanese ones. He needs to get a move on though.

[Alfred]

Oh dear oh dear. There is a lot of superficial commentary being made regarding festung Palembang.[>:] Even though Bullwinkle gave a strong pointer as to the value of reading Nemo's AAR, it doesn't seem too many have read it and absorbed its lessons.

Carry on with the mutual self appreciation chorus. The plan will probably succeed because of your opponent's reaction which I suspect will be very orthodox. But there is no such thing as a plan which lacks a counter particularly where:

* the objectiver is auto victory
* it is scenario 2
* the festung Palembang plan is only being implemented half heartedly
* a Japanese player is not trapped into accepting the usual myths as to how and what is required to win the game

Bullwinkle reguarly posts in this thread. He can certainly put forward some comments which will shake the complacency I see here.

Alfred

[paullus99]

Alfred - I find your post to be quite disengenuous & also just a bit insulting.

[Canoerebel]

Hmm, I haven't seen any complacency here. I've read Nemo's AAR. I know what I'm doing is totally different, but I'm doing it for a variety of reasons that I consider pretty important. Even though I haven't gone all-in for Palembang, it still makes sense to choose to defend it rather than Soerabaja, Batavia, or Singapore. But I'm not willing to strip India - at least not yet - because I don't know how good my opponent is. If I empty India and load up Sumatra, he could focus on the former much to my detriment. As Nemo and others have noted, Palembang isn't essential to Japan for awhile - perhaps for quite awhile.

While running very, very slowly today, I was giving alot of thought to the situation. Steve hasn't shown his cards yet. He seems to be very tardy in the DEI (the Allies still hold Palembang, Medan, Brunei, Miri, Tarakan, Balikpan, etc.) and he seems to be weak in Luzon and possibly in Malaya. He isn't moving on Burma yet. So where is he? I'm begining to see big concentrations in China. Two days ago, I issued orders to troops at Chengyang and Loyang to begin pulling back to the forested hexes north and east of Sian. I've been getting a feeling of a big move in this area. I wonder (just thinking aloud here) if he's going all-in for China? But I don't think that would be effective - even if successful - if he doesn't exert decent presure in the DEI. Once I know where he's committed, I'll feel free to move troops out of other areas.

[Canoerebel]

1/5/42

Eastern DEI: Quiet at the moment.

Western DEI: Palembang AV up to 670. Allied fighter ambush at Singapore worked - the Allies downed between 30 and 40 Oscar, Betty, Nell, and Sally at the cost of one P-40 lost to ops. Steve is sniffing around Port Blair, probably trying to determine if a para-assault might take it, but the Allies have about 45 AV there now (mostly part of an Indian brigade air-transported from Malaya). That's enough to withstand a paratroop assault.

CenPac: An IJ sub torpedoed and sank DD Sims, which was on ASW duty. That's the third ASW DD I've had torpedoed, and the second that's gone under. This is noteable, because no Allied DDs on escort or ASW duty were sunk by subs during the actual war. Not that it couldn't happen, but I'm keeping track because my destroyers already seem to be on the "unusual" side of any reasonable bell-shaped curve.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hmm, I haven't seen any complacency here. I've read Nemo's AAR. I know what I'm doing is totally different, but I'm doing it for a variety of reasons that I consider pretty important. Even though I haven't gone all-in for Palembang, it still makes sense to choose to defend it rather than Soerabaja, Batavia, or Singapore. But I'm not willing to strip India - at least not yet - because I don't know how good my opponent is. If I empty India and load up Sumatra, he could focus on the former much to my detriment. As Nemo and others have noted, Palembang isn't essential to Japan for awhile - perhaps for quite awhile.

While running very, very slowly today, I was giving alot of thought to the situation. Steve hasn't shown his cards yet. He seems to be very tardy in the DEI (the Allies still hold Palembang, Medan, Brunei, Miri, Tarakan, Balikpan, etc.) and he seems to be weak in Luzon and possibly in Malaya. He isn't moving on Burma yet. So where is he? I'm begining to see big concentrations in China. Two days ago, I issued orders to troops at Chengyang and Loyang to begin pulling back to the forested hexes north and east of Sian. I've been getting a feeling of a big move in this area. I wonder (just thinking aloud here) if he's going all-in for China? But I don't think that would be effective - even if successful - if he doesn't exert decent presure in the DEI. Once I know where he's committed, I'll feel free to move troops out of other areas.

I think the situation in Scenario 2 is quite different. In Nomad and my DBB game we sent the 18thUK to Pelmbang. We pulled the two Aussie BGD from Malaya and put them there also. The we pulled the majority of the Dutch combat units and put them there too. As I said above, you can do that in a non-enhanced Japan scenrio quite safely. I don't think I would do that in your situation. As you pointed out, you need to think about protecting India in this game. Still the Aussie BGD in Malaya are probably better served in palembang than Singers. We also put every ENG unit we could move in Palembang too which made bombing about useless as we could repair almost all damage overnight as well as build forts.

All this was the original impetance for my starting the Economic thread in the Scenario Design forum. While it certainly is an AFB advantage, it rings really false to have your troops living off AvGas, lubricants and diesel fuel from the Palembang Refinery Centers. That, however, is a discussion for another time and place

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Alfred - I find your post to be quite disengenuous & also just a bit insulting.

I'm not sure of why you use "disengenuous" in this context, but I tend to agree with Alfred to an extent. As for the second half of your statement, I correspond with him and I find Alfred to be one of the most polite people I've ever met. I'm sure his comments were to be taken at face value, and I'm sure he has done the math behind them before posting. The truth shouldn't be seen as insulting (except when one is speaking to the parents of very ugly children.)

Boiling this whole topic down, and using Nemo's analysis and experience as one measure, and further recalling that this is Scenario 2, I think that the topic of Palembang can lead to some perhaps dangerous levels of Allied navel gazing. Will he, won't he? As Nemo outlined and as can be shown mathematically, the Japanese player does not need Palembang until relatively late in the war IF he does certain other economy-preserving things/conquests instead. Especially when he has auto-vic in mind, he can effectively ignore it in 1942, and much of 1943. Does that mean it shouldn't be defended? I don't think so, but it is also possible to get into groupthink about an Olympian-level of importance which it does not have, and under-think the rest of the game in the process.

CR makes the good point that if one is going to defend anywhere in the DEI it's better than most, perhaps the best place, but that doesn't make it the focus of the war. As he says, if his opponent goes on by, waving, headed for somewhere else it will have been a good thing if he didn't perhaps "do a Nemo" in building it up. And that will give him valuable info on how his opponent sees this game and his chances.

But one can be too clever by half. Plotting and planning to spring a "Surprise!!" on the Japanese player when he gets in recon range of Palembang might be a case of a big cake with no stripper inside. In other words a standard birthday party, infested with ugly children.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Bullwinkle, for the analysis.
 
Vettim, everything in my being cries to move the two Aussie brigades from Singapore to Sumatra (well, I have the political points to pay for one at the moment), but here's why I haven't done so.  I am not yet persuaded that Steve is bringing enough troops to take Singapore in the near term.  I could be wrong, but if not, I want to keep Singapore strongly garrisoned because it is an important speed bump in its own right.  Few IJ players are going to move on Port Blair, Ceylon or India before they have Singers sewed up.  Too, Singers will probably be targeted before Palembang, so keeping it may actually directly benefit Palembang.  If Steve took Singers in the short term, it would be natural for himi to immediately turn his attention to Palembang, so the longer I can hold it, the better.

[Durbik]

My question regarding Port Blair: do you fortify it in a serious manner, and if so - what is your OOB there? Myself - I always make it a Festung in my allied games, but I'm curious what is the common thought - is this base worth the investment early in the game, or are the Japanese able to overrun it when they want, ignoring the defenses and allied effort in building up the base?

[paullus99]

Sorry - I just felt rubbed the wrong way by Alfred's glib assessment of the situation & our "back-slapping." Given the extra resources that the Japanese player has in this scenario, they should be able to steamroller over the opposition in the DEI even faster than historically - and in this case, leaving those Dutch troops scattered about where they would be nothing but hay in the furnace doesn't make any sense.

In this regard, knowing that the Jap player is probably going for Auto-Victory, sure, Palembang isn't as vital - but he also won't want a thorn in his side either. By concentrating here, it forces the Japanese player to deal with it (with troops that would otherwise be prepping for the autovictory target) or leave it as a potential offensive base for the Allied player once the autovictory offensive has been launched.

Canoerebel isn't committing anything vital that wouldn't be lost anyway - and giving himself potential breathing room to prepare India, Australia or PH for the coming storm.

I also am coming around to the Singers stand as well - if your opponent isn't going in guns-blazing.