1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids)

[Flaviusx]

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas

Here is a map of the entire front.

My reflection is that despite a very successful 1941 summer, a mild winter and a very successful 1942 summer offensive, I am nowhere near capturing the territory taken by the Germans in the historical 1942 summer offensive.

Tarhunnas, frankly, I don't think that's important. Just keep the Red Army crippled and deep in Russia and the game is in the bag for you. It's going to be very difficult for the Red Army to recover from this disastrous 42 summer and get to Berlin. You really need only run out the clock.

The amount of territory taken by the Germans in real life went far to lose them the war. Their reach exceeded their grasp. Here, you've fallen back on the classic Clausewitzian formulation: the enemy's army is your target, not any particular geographic objective. Wherever it goes, so you go. Smash it up, and the war is yours, either via a knockout blow or by running out the clock.

[Tarhunnas]

OOB turn 68. Recent heavy tank losses by the Soviets mean that the Germans actually outnumber the Soviets in tanks!

[Tarhunnas]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas

Here is a map of the entire front.

My reflection is that despite a very successful 1941 summer, a mild winter and a very successful 1942 summer offensive, I am nowhere near capturing the territory taken by the Germans in the historical 1942 summer offensive.

Tarhunnas, frankly, I don't think that's important. Just keep the Red Army crippled and deep in Russia and the game is in the bag for you. It's going to be very difficult for the Red Army to recover from this disasterous 42 summer and get to Berlin. You really need only run out the clock.

The amount of territory taken by the Germans in real life went far to lose them the war. Their reach exceeded their grasp. Here, you've fallen back on the classic Clausewitzian formulation: the enemy's army is your target, not any particular geographic objective. Wherever it goes, so you go. Smash it up, and the war is yours, either via a knockout blow or by running out the clock.

In terms of outcome of this game, I agree completely. My reflection was more on the ability of WITE to produce historically plausible results in 1942. I can't really see how it is possible as the game is now to have a reasonably historical 1942 offensive with the Germans pushing the Soviets back to the Caucasus and the Soviets bouncing back. The few AARs that have seen Axis offensives taking anything resembling the territory taken by the Germans in 1942 have had the Soviets completely wrecked beyond hope of recovery and been between unequal opponents.

[Flaviusx]

Tarhunnas, it is entirely possible for it to happen if both players act as their historical counterparts did. Neither you nor the Soviet player did so.

I think your opponent mismanaged the Red Army very badly in this game and allowed himself to get wrecked beyond recovery. That's player error, plain and simple. Don't blame the game for that.

[Tarhunnas]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Tarhunnas, it is entirely possible for it to happen if both players act as their historical counterparts did. Neither you nor the Soviet player did so.

I think your opponent mismanaged the Red Army very badly in this game and allowed himself to get wrecked beyond recovery. That's player error, plain and simple. Don't blame the game for that.

I am certainly not "blaming" WITE for what is happening in this game. I have no reason to blame anything.

I am pointning out that WITE has not in any game I have seen delivered anything resembling the historical 1942 summer offensive. I think that indicates that WITE, a very good and enjoyable game IMHO, needs some tweaking.

To be blunt and honest, I think it is you who are blaming my opponent, who cannot read this and cannot defend himself, to deflect my slight criticism of the game, which was intended to as a constructive observation on the 1942 situation.

[Tarhunnas]

I think Gids is a great opponent who is holding out and continuing this game in adversity despite being in a desperate situation. He deserves all respect, and should not be condemned in an AAR he cannot read.

[molchomor]

Well if the evacuation of factories has been properly done for the Soviets, and also as your opponent still holds Caucasus, he should have enough manpower and equipment to make a stand during the winter and bounce back during the next summer (e.g. by hammering the Finns where your panzers are more or less useless due to the heavy woods, and also create some strong firebrigade corps to hammer your mobile formations when they appear, slowing your advance and taking advantage of the still-high rail capacity that he has).

What is critical now for the Soviets is not to loose more units, losses in men & equipment can be replenished but units are expensive to recreate.

Yes this AAR is GEKADOS for your opponent but he can still look at other AARs for hints on what to do, so I wouldn't relax just yet

[DTurtle]

I wonder what the effect of capturing the rail junction at Baskunchak (three hexes ENE of your eastern-most division) would be, as that would cut off the entire Caucasus from the rail net to the rest of the Soviet Union. Rail transport in that area would still be possible (because he holds Baku), but it would be very difficult to reinforce that area. Pretty much the only way to reinforce would be through newly built units in that area.

It probably won't influence production, as there is still the sea-path through the Caspian Sea.

However, taking that rail junction could enable you to go on to capture the entire Caucasus.

[Flaviusx]

He could have retreated into the Caucuses and sucked you right in. (This is what I would have done.) He did not do this, and allowed very significant forces to get pocketed in Rostov and to the west of that, far in excess of anything that happened in real life.

I'm sorry I sound harsh, but if the Soviet player does these sorts of things, you're not going to get a perfectly historical game. This isn't a failure of game design. I have nothing personal against your opponent, just calling it like I see it.

[Tarhunnas]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

He could have retreated into the Caucuses and sucked you right in. (This is what I would have done.) He did not do this, and allowed very significant forces to get pocketed in Rostov and to the west of that, far in excess of anything that happened in real life.

I'm sorry I sound harsh, but if the Soviet player does these sorts of things, you're not going to get a perfectly historical game. This isn't a failure of game design. I have nothing personal against your opponent, just calling it like I see it.

Obviously player decisions are going to influence things a lot, so I am not expecting a perfectly historical game. Indeed if history always repeated itself, that would hardly be a game.

I think however hat the preconditions in WITE are not there for a 1942 campaign to unfold in a way that resembles the real one. Even with a 1941 campaign that is more successful than the historical one and a milder winter, and a Kharkov-like Soviet SNAFU in spring, the Soviets will still be so strong and well entrenched that it takes considerable additional disasters for the Soviets, basically continuing all summer, before the balance of forces is such that a German drive to Stalingrad becomes possible.

Yes, the Soviets should have avoided the Rostov pocket, but this is in early october, the end of the campaigning season! It has no bearing on the situation in early summer. What I am saying is that the conditions for an eastward drive in summer of 1942 will not be there in WITE, even in a situation where the Germans have taken both Leningrad and Moscow and in general fared better than historically.

I am not complaining because I feel I am not winning this game, on the contrary, I feel I am. I am trying to point to what I see as things that need to be tweaked in WITE.

[Flaviusx]

Well, it's very difficult to go into 1942 from a 41 start with similar conditions. The campaign can deviate as quickly as the fall of Leningrad (which is happening very quickly nowadays in most games.)

I think if you want to get something more closely resembling the historical 42 campaign, you need to start with a 42 campaign scenario, or its little brother, the Operation Blue scenario, which focuses on the southern part of the front during that period. It's a pretty good training tool for both sides in this regard. This area has its own quirks of geography and logistics.

[Klydon]

Terrific campaign Tarhunnas. I think you also have Q-Ball very concerned about your game when he sees this type of manuvering. [:D]

I am not picking on Gids either, but Flav has a point about the Reds making some bad fundamental mistakes in this particular AAR. The one thing the Russians can't afford to do in 1942 is to have a lot of counters come off the board, yet this is exactly what happen in this particular game. I think in some cases, Gids had no real possible defense given how he had things organized, but in other cases, he simply didn't withdraw even tho the hand writing was on the wall for a huge encirclement. At some point, I look forward to hearing his side of the hill on his perspective.

The 42 campaign was at best a shoe string operation the way it was designed. A lot of assumptions were made by Hitler when he did most of the planning for the operation. (example, the Russian armies would be encircled in the river bend and there would be really nothing stopping the Germans from just marching where they wanted to go in the Caucasus). There was a lot of discussion on what to do in 1942 by the General staff from launching another offensive against Moscow (hoping to destroy the Red army), to staying on the defensive and simply launching minor operations to straighten the line, save manpower, and build a reserve up.

Does Stalingrad still have its industry? I don't think it is worth it for you to get caught out like that if not during mud. How is the count going on city/urban needed for an outright win?

[Erik Rutins]

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas
In terms of outcome of this game, I agree completely. My reflection was more on the ability of WITE to produce historically plausible results in 1942. I can't really see how it is possible as the game is now to have a reasonably historical 1942 offensive with the Germans pushing the Soviets back to the Caucasus and the Soviets bouncing back. The few AARs that have seen Axis offensives taking anything resembling the territory taken by the Germans in 1942 have had the Soviets completely wrecked beyond hope of recovery and been between unequal opponents.

You can't separate the results from your opponent's strategy and your own though. I don't think Gids positioned his forces or reacted to your "Case Blue" the same way the historical Red Army did and every event before that also built an alternate timeline and alternate historical outcome.

Regards,

- Erik

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Klydon

Terrific campaign Tarhunnas. I think you also have Q-Ball very concerned about your game when he sees this type of manuvering. [:D]

Yeah, no kidding! STAVKA is taking copious notes. I don't think the power balance was much different in this game entering Summer 1942 than it is in mine; Tarhunnas had maybe 200K more guys vs. Gids, and fewer tanks, but that's about it. This AAR goes to show that the Germans can really put a hurt on in 1942. Not sure Gids is getting to Berlin.

I will say, though, that if I opened my turn 66 and saw those Panzers within 5 hexes of Rostov, I would have immediately Dunkirked out of there. At that point, the rail lines were still open through Rostov, so most of those units could have made it out. Some would have been stuck; even they could have formed a bulge around Taganrog, and delayed a bit.

How much industry did you get in Stalingrad/Rostov?

Seeing this, I need to rail more out, though you probably know Tarhunnas that Rostov is already empty in our game......

[Remmes]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
you need to start with a 42 campaign scenario, or its little brother, the Operation Blue scenario, which focuses on the southern part of the front during that period. It's a pretty good training tool for both sides in this regard. This area has its own quirks of geography and logistics.

I would love to see a case Blue scenario 'walkthrough.' Have tried it many times but I always seem to come up short in manpower (which is historic) or movement (because of the mud turns later on in the scenario). It appears that you don't have enough resources to capture both Stalingrad and the ultimate goal Baku (!). It does give you a good idea of the enormous distances involved. Sure would be nice if someone who is adept at this game could show how it is done. The best I came up with is a minor victory wit AI on easy.

[Tarhunnas]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

ORIGINAL: Klydon

Terrific campaign Tarhunnas. I think you also have Q-Ball very concerned about your game when he sees this type of manuvering. [:D]

Yeah, no kidding! STAVKA is taking copious notes. I don't think the power balance was much different in this game entering Summer 1942 than it is in mine; Tarhunnas had maybe 200K more guys vs. Gids, and fewer tanks, but that's about it. This AAR goes to show that the Germans can really put a hurt on in 1942. Not sure Gids is getting to Berlin.

I think there are some fundamental differences that IMO make it very doubtful if 1942 will be anywhere like this in our campaign Q-Ball. First, the force balance is not similar. You have smaller casualties in our game, and mine are larger. Second, the weather. This game was random weather, and ours is fixed, wich is a great advantage to the Soviets. The Soviets know what the weather will be, and can plan accordingly. That makes the turns of alternating mud and clear very hard to use for the Germans. And in this game, I was lucky with the weather in that I had much continous snow during the spring and not much mud. Third, I hurt Soviet production more against Gids, especially in the tank department.

I fear our 1942 might be more like Ketzas and 76mm, a grind with with dug in fronts and not much happening. But we will see. I will definitely try to make operations mobile and exciting.

[Flaviusx]

ORIGINAL: Ramses


I would love to see a case Blue scenario 'walkthrough.' Have tried it many times but I always seem to come up short in manpower (which is historic) or movement (because of the mud turns later on in the scenario). It appears that you don't have enough resources to capture both Stalingrad and the ultimate goal Baku (!). It does give you a good idea of the enormous distances involved. Sure would be nice if someone who is adept at this game could show how it is done. The best I came up with is a minor victory wit AI on easy.

That's about all I've ever seen done myself. The Germans just get too stretched out and something gives...pretty much what happened in real life. My own view is that the historical German strategy in 1942 was completely chuckleheaded. They should have focused on smashing the Red Army, not on territorial objectives, let alone wildly scattered ones such as Stalingrad and Baku. If they had, for example, turn north after taking Voronezh and flanked the Soviet line, that would've caused the Soviet a lot of problems. In fact, this is what Stalin feared was the actual German plan and he refused to believe that they would strike south even after capturing German plans indicating otherwise. Stalin's fears were based on rational calculation, as usual he failed to take into account the vagaries of Hitler's strategizing.

That is to say, a smart German should do what Tarhunnas did here, not what Hitler tried.

[Tarhunnas]

Turn 69. The weather is holding.

South Stalingrad fell, and Rostov and Stalingrad now firmly surrounded. The Donbass pocket is also closed shut.

[Apollo11]

Hi all,

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas

Turn 69. The weather is holding.

South Stalingrad fell, and Rostov and Stalingrad now firmly surrounded. The Donbass pocket is also closed shut.

This is utter disaster for the Soviets now...

The only thing that can save them is the change of weather that is upcoming... it will be interesting fight in the continuing months and years...


Leo "Apollo11"

[Fishbed]

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas

I think Gids is a great opponent who is holding out and continuing this game in adversity despite being in a desperate situation. He deserves all respect, and should not be condemned in an AAR he cannot read.

I do concur, as a very faithful reader - although a mute one - of these AARs. Flavius, with all due respect, you are undoubtedly very talented and experienced at commanding armies since the Alpha and sharing your expertise, but I still remember you were the one who would tell Q-Ball that his game was lost and that he shall resign, something like one month ago. Let's get real my friend, if you can be mistaken, everyone can make mistakes, especially newer players learning with the best [;)]

Gids is having his butt handed to him over a plate, but you can be pretty sure he's learning the hard way. Trashing some Russian divs early on doesn't prevent them from turning into guard units eventually? Well, experience works this way in real life too! It's tough love, but it's a nice opportunity for him. Second game like that already, right, but if he ever comes back from this one, I can't wait to watch the third one!