MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Based on the screenshot with the flyout, it appears to me the Germans could indeed get a 5:1 attack if they chose.

The snow would reduce that to 3:1, while the disorganized units would add a +2 to the die roll (I think). I am not certain what penalty the city & factories would impose.

Given the above, I would revise my previous suggestion and agree with a BEF in Calais.

Given the snow, as the Germans I would definitely kill of the Paris MIL to start pressuring the French right flank.

I would also consider trying a blitz on the AA stack, although I am not certain it would be very good.

The factory stacks are a -1, so the net would be 3:1+1, which is certainly worth trying, especially since there are now more expendable units in the area.

The Paris MIL is definitely going to be killed, and I'll have to check what kind of odds I can get against the AA stack. But that will wait until the Axis impulse. I'll go ahead and put the BEF in Calais. It might make the difference of a turn or so in the fall of France vs. being placed in Rouen, I think.
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Edit: It looks like I could get something around 4:1 Blitz, with a small chance of 5:1, but that is reduced to 2:1 and I'm not sure that's in Germany's best interest. I have a few other ideas that might work out interestingly.

[Red Prince]

There's actually a much more pressing problem in the south. I didn't move the CAV to ZOC the Italians, because they could easily crush it then, even in winter. Instead, I moved the 3-3 INF to block the MOT, and it might be a good idea to bring the MTN down to Lyon next impulse, if possible. The Germans are on the way, not in force, but some backup. If the Vichy areas fall, France won't last long.
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Edit: Or, perhaps, the INF Division should get railed to Lyon next impulse. I don't know. We'll see what happens after the Axis impulse, and also after the next weather roll.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Germnay doesn't have to attack needlessly. Leave Lille and Metz alone. Take out the 5-2 gift, thereby gaining 2 hexes on a clear hex adjacent to Paris.

Paris is the center of the onion and you peel away the defenders until you can get 2 or 3 hexes for good attack odds on Paris itself.

Advance into all the open hexes - send a unit eastwards to cover the opening in the West Wall.

The 3 units in the Maginot line are then out of the game as far as the Germans are concerned - don't bother with them at all and they will disappear when Vichy is declared.

The next attack will be on the hex due east of Paris, followed by an attack on the hex NE of Paris. Everything else is a waste of organized German units. If the French concentrate all their best units to defend Paris, there are going to be some open hexes to advance into, or very weak hexes that can be attacked at automatic odds.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

The Italian front is meaningless at this point. It has already served its purpose in tying up 4 French units that could be helping out in the north. The Italians ooze forward making sure to stay organized and in supply - they threaten stuff but never take any risks.

[Centuur]

I don't like the situation around Metz. The empty hex is really inviting the German army to try to exploit a possible breakthrough at the hex the Paris MIL is in. That will than mean that all 4 units east of the resource are going to be out of the way for the German attack at Paris.
Now, personally I wouldn't leave the Maginot line at this point. It's winter and that is going to hamper the Germans very much. However: since you're making you're choice to maintain very large stacks in the area of Lille-Paris you'll have to do so. I still think this decision is to early. The German HQ is disorganised, the other HQ's nowhere in sight at the moment. It's snowing and winter...
However, when you'll empty the Maginot Line of any unit, you should than move all units there westward, so you're front to the west is closed.
Sure, Metz will be attacked and probably taken if there's only one unit in there. But to have all four units out of the way for the Germans is very good for the Axis.
Also? What is Georges doing in Paris? There isn't any possibility of a German unit entering Paris next impulse at all. The German stack with the 9-4 INF on top is going to get 21 factor maximum. Against 9 factors of French combat points that will result in a 1-2 with the -2 odds. Even with a blitz bonus, no breakthrough is possible. Or am I missing something here?
Georges can better be used to bolstering the defense in the area of the Paris MIL. MTN to Paris MIL, Metz and Strassbourg unit move east and the front is reasonably closed...
You'll get an impulse to repair you're defenses and occupy Paris again, if needed (I'm convinced it won't be needed too next impulse...).

[Red Prince]

In the end, I have two attacks for the Axis this impulse. I haven't actually moved on to the land combats yet, because I'm very tired. The first, of course, is the Paris MIL attack, and the second is an attack in China at 5:1 near Hengyang. I'll show them when I do post the attacks and results later today or tomorrow.

Now that I'm playing the Axis side again, I'm planning the German offensive so that even if I were to take Paris this turn, I don't think I would declare Vichy. That's because of the US Entry chits. So, whether Vichy is declared or not is going to be based completely on the weather it seems. If it stays bad for the rest of N/D '39 and continues that way for J/F '40, then Vichy is likely. If there are enough impulses of good weather (or any, really) in that stretch, there might be an opening for the Germans and Italians to conquer France. Once that Paris MIL is gone, one more attack will allow the fast German units to get almost anywhere in France within 2 impulses -- provided that the weather is either Fine or Snow.

So, later I'll play out these attacks, rebase a few more aircraft, and then we shall see what the weather is for Impulse #7 (3rd Allied Impulse).
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Edit: Yes, I know supply is going to be an issue, but even if I can't actually move the other German HQs over quickly enough, I can always rail one to the front.

[composer99]

Advice for the Germans:

The ARM stack needs to move. Two ARM units on the opposite side of a city hex from the French "bowling alley" is a tragedy. [:)]

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Advice for the Germans:

The ARM stack needs to move. Two ARM units on the opposite side of a city hex from the French "bowling alley" is a tragedy. [:)]

Don't worry, they did. [;)]

[Red Prince]

Sorry for the delay. I wasn't really up to doing anything complex yesterday (like MWiF). Just a random fact here: did you know that 25% of the oxygen used by your body is used by your brain? Scientists are still a little baffled by this, but I'm not. I'll bet it doesn't really surprise you, either. If you've ever spent a lot of time thinking about complex problems -- and MWiF counts as one -- then you know how tiring it can be.

Anyway, as promised, the two attacks the Axis made in impulse #5:



And the results:

Attack on Reims, France: Blitz, Fractional Odds .988 (No), Roll = Automatic = */2B
Attack on China [87, 142], Assault, Fractional Odds .418 (Yes), Roll = 7 = */2S

So, both attacks go as expected. If you're wondering why the Fractional Odds roll was made fo the attack in China, it's because of a strange quirk in the rules. There might seem to be no point in rolling for fractional odds between 5:1 and 6:1 on an Assault, since there is no 6:1 Assault CRT, but since weather changes odss levels, and not columns, the roll is necessary. In Fine weather, winning that roll doesn't help the Japanese, but if it had been Rain instead of Fine, this roll would mean a drop from 6:1 to 5:1, keeping them on the 5:1 CRT. If the roll wasn't made, Rain would drop them down to the 4:1 CRT without giving them a chance to improve things due to Fractional Odds. That may sound confusing, but we discussed the game mechanics in great length in order to figure out the correct way to apply Fractional Odds.

[Red Prince]

Here's the new situation in France, and things look very bad indeed. The new weather roll was a 2, modified to a 3. That means it's the same as the 1st Impulse: Rain in the Arctic, and Fine everywhere else.

The German leaders are laughing menaically, and the BEF is wondering why it even bothered.

[Red Prince]

So you can see why I'm wondering about what the Allies/Axis should do now, here is a view of the entire French nation. With attacks being made at "natural" odds levels, the Germans can really do a lot to destroy the French army next impulse. They can't get to Paris yet, of course, but they can probably get into position to capture nearly everything needed to conquer France in short order, which means they'll be able to make a bid for Spain, Portugal, and maybe even Gibraltar during the summer months of 1940.

So, the question now, is what to do for each side. You know I origianlly planned a Close the Med strategy, but Vichy could allow for a Summer '40 Barbarossa. I guess US Entry might be a key factor in this decision. Which direction favors the Axis more? Closing the Med (difficult to do), or a solid shot at taking out the USSR completely (less difficult if begun in 1940)?

While thinking about this, please remember that in J/F '40, the USSR will be making the claim on Bessarabia, which will be allowed. In the last game, they made the claim on the Finnish Borderlands, which was also allowed due to a strong Soviet setup against Finland. The Bessarabia claim needs to be made and granted so that I can test the Rumanian ability to move all of its units out of the country, but there is nothing I need to test in Finland.

As before, I'd really like to try activting Turkey by sneaking in the backdoor, but that isn't needed for a test, either. It's more for fun. The early good weather in this games mean that things have moved much more quickly in the West than last game, which kind of screws up the timing for other plans that I began with. The CW is stronger in the Med and in Gibraltar than before.
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Edit: Because of the weather roll, even if the BEF had landed in Rouen, it could never have reached Bordeaux before the Germans, so it may have been too little, too late. Not poor strategy at the time the choice was made, since the odds favored more bad weather, but now what should they do?

[Red Prince]

In China, the good weather gives Japan an opportunity to eliminate one of the best Communist Chinese units, except that it will be retreating to Sian with the GARR, as planned.

In the southern battle, HQ-I Chiang has not long to live, and the Nationalist front, faulty from setup, could be cracked completely. This means China might have very little time left. I mention this because it could have an impact on the Western Axis strategy. If China can be conquered, this would favor a Vichy Declaration, so that the Axis can have a chance to eliminate 3 of the 5 Allied majors with a '40 Barbarossa.

[Klydon]

Part of the issue fo the Germans at this point is they are likely going to telegraph what plan they are going for with what they build. If going for the 40 Barbarossa, they need ground units, more ground units and ground units after that. Oh and some air of course. A Med strategy would suggest more paratroopers, air, etc.

I think you have to look really hard at a 40 Barbarossa, in part because of what is going on in Europe, but also what the Japanese are doing and the potential pressure they will be able to bring in the Russian FE. The Russians are either going to be forced to write off the FE (boon for Japan) or use troops there they will badly need against the Germans.

I would think long and hard about a 40 Barbarossa with the developments in Europe, but the FE situation puts it over the top imo.

Knocking out Russia in this game wins you the game outright as the Axis.

[Red Prince]

Desperation led the CW to attempt 3 low odds Ground Strikes on frontline German stacks, using a CVP with 1 Tactical Factor and 2 LND, each with 2 Tactical Factors. Germany could only intercept 1 of these attempts, and successfully shot down the LND (the one with ATR capability). However, the CVP and remaining LND each got lucky and managed to disorganize 1 unit in each attacked stack. It won't slow the German advance too much, but it will slow the advance. It might have bought enough time to justify losing a bomber.

For restructuring the defense in France, the only thing I can think to do is to pull the BEF back to the hex SW of Lille, pull the 3-stack with the AA back a hex SW, move Billotte behind the Seine to prevent a Breakthrough into a hex next to Paris (even if it is a river-crossing hex, it also prevents the Germans from getting units into a better flanking position), place the Lyons MIL in the forest hex as a sacrifice since it can be rebuilt instantly, move the MTN from that forest back to Lyons, and add the MOT Billotte was stacked with to the INF in the hex E of Paris.

On the Maginot Line, I think it's time to abandon Strasbourg, moving that GARR into Metz to take the place of the one that moves SW to maintain supply to the last GARR in the mountains. This plan, I think, limits the number of hexes that can be used to attack the Parisian defenders, and it offers the Germans several distractions, including Lille and Metz.

I've added the Flyouts to show you which German units were disorganized by the CW Ground Strikes.

What do you think?

[Red Prince]

An update from the Chinese front:

The decision was made to abandon Hengyang (and, yes, the Oil there, too) and Kweilin to the Japanese. Moving into the mountains should protect HQ-I Chiang and most of his support. Japan will be forced to take these two cities in order to continue the offensive. They were useless to China anyway, so might as well try for a few more US Entry chits.

The other unit in Hengyang right now is a FTR, and that can be rebased at the end of this impulse.

Japan could try to wait until 1940 to take these cities, but they have to maintain the pressure, so they'll just have to hope all of the '1' rolls are finished.
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Edit: Forgot to mention that the Communists abandoned Tungkwan, which also needs to be taken if the Japanese want to continue the offensive, so that makes three cities useless to the Chinese that Japan must take, probably this turn. That's a risk for the Japanese, but it must be done. China has no units coming in next turn, so Japan could wait, but the weather may not hold out. I'll figure that out next impulse.

Also, for the Chinese, there is a very slight possibility that Japan could put HQ-I Chiang and his support out of supply before they can complete the retreat, but it is small and requires sustained good weather.

[Centuur]

I agree with you, regarding the Chinese front. US entry is already bad, so the only hope the Japanese have got is an elimination of the Chinese. So keep on the pressure.
On the French front, the Euroaxis have to make a decision now. Is it a close the Med strategy or Barbarossa. The French are at this point totally out of position if the Italians and Germans are able to get into a race towards the Spanish border. This really would suggest that a conquest of France might be possible. However, on the other hand a Barbarossa 1940 also is going to get very slowly into the picture, in which case you should aim for Paris as agressively as possible.
In both cases, the Lyon Mil is of course a dead man. However, a conquest of France would now mean an attack on both Metz and Lille too (and leave Paris for later...). The question I have now is one regarding supply. Where are the other two German HQ's at the moment? Are they already in Belgium and can they contribute to attacks to hexes next to Paris, if the weather stays reasonable next turn?
If so, I would go for Paris and prepare for that, otherwise I would attack Metz and Lille this impulse, since the possibility of bad weather next impulse is very high, and you have to grab those hexes anyhow if you want to conquer France...

[Red Prince]

In post #294, you can see Rundstedt almost there in the NE of the picture. And von Leeb is the German unit you can't quite see to the NW of Leipzig. The O-chit used up von Bock, and he is in Brussels at the moment.

Also, notice that the German ATR is 4 hexes away from the MTN . . . so the MTN can move to the ATR and then get airlifted to a useful hex -- perhaps to the one SE of the Lyons MIL.

[brian brian]

the blow by blow is always fascinating, thanks!



the BEF has already helped...they hold the flanks so more French can join the grind in the center...

as for 1940, another thing you learn playing in World in Flames is never count your chickens (sorry English as 2nd language gamers)......it has been known for the sun to disappear until June.....and the Field Marshalls with 'von' in front of their names can roll snake-eyes too...and Mao's little fishes can appear all over China's rail junctions....

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

the blow by blow is always fascinating, thanks!



the BEF has already helped...they hold the flanks so more French can join the grind in the center...

as for 1940, another thing you learn playing in World in Flames is never count your chickens (sorry English as 2nd language gamers)......it has been known for the sun to disappear until June.....and the Field Marshalls with 'von' in front of their names can roll snake-eyes too...and Mao's little fishes can appear all over China's rail junctions....

Glad the blow-by-blow is fun. At this rate, I'll finish this game sometime in 2035, I imagine. [:)]

For less key turns, I'll probably just jump right through a lot of it, but since the fall of France is such a key issue in World in Flames, I figured it would be interesting to get to see it.

You're not going to believe this . . . well, maybe you will . . . but at this moment, in part because of the Chinese retreat, there is a 0% chance of Partisans in China. Most of the Japanese are not in enemy ZOC, so they almost all count for garrison value.

[brian brian]

don't worry.....the smart little fish just keep swimming in the sea until the dice are right...