Return of the Sheep! - JocMeister(A) vs. MrKane(J)

[Cribtop]

Oh, I agree - Hawaii is possible for the reasons you suggest, and it is enough of a challenge that Mr. Kane may be tempted to try it. Just making the case for Oz.

It is still possible this is all maskirovka for India, but with the 3 divisions at Truk, it's looking less likely every day.

[JocMeister]

I think Hawaii would be extremely unlikely. Even more so considering he didn´t hit PH in T1. So the air force is intact. It would also bring a lot of currently restricted troops into play. All that for "only" a 150 multiplier. But I´m not going to rule it out. You have a good point offenseman. I´ll try to divert some of the rare subs toward Marcus/Truk and see if I can find something. I´ll also stop the expansion of the port and switch it to forts for now.

But my gut tells me he will do something along the line what Criptop says. If I had to chose I would say he will hit Suva/Nadi and Pago Pago first. He can then leave them with a decent garrison and hit eastern OZ. The KB will have to cover the initial landing but as soon as a base is established he can move it within range for an allied counter landing at Pago Pago. He could potentially force me to commit to a CV battle where he would have the advantage of numbers, experience, quality and LBA cover... of course I would only have to commit if AV was a real possibility and all things point to that.

Its a risky strategy for him as he would be fighting as far away from the HI as possible. But it could very well pay off. If he fails he would still have time to pull back, regroup and put up a defensive perimeter.

[offenseman]

That is an outstanding point about not hitting PH... hmmmm New Zealand? I agree with cribtop's thoughts about Oz too; Oz certainly cannot be ruled out. Taking Noumea and NZ would cut Oz off form that direction in. Also have no idea what NZ reinforcements that would trigger.
This is a very fun war to watch and discuss. Thanks for letting us dabble in it with you! [:)]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Oh, I agree - Hawaii is possible for the reasons you suggest, and it is enough of a challenge that Mr. Kane may be tempted to try it. Just making the case for Oz.

It is still possible this is all maskirovka for India, but with the 3 divisions at Truk, it's looking less likely every day.

I agree... my gut says it's not Hawaii, though. I think it may be even too much for MrKane to want to attempt. Especially with no PH strike, as Joc says.

I think this is setting up for New Caledonia and perhaps the NE Australia coast - perhaps all of it through Brisbane, as allowed by the Line Of Death.

[JeffroK]

East Coast of Australia, come in via the Solomons and land south of Brisbane and plan on a quick blitz to Sydney and mop up the other cities later.
KB should be able to sweep the very small RAAF and RAN.

Why concentrate your forces only to take outposts like Suva or Noumea except as diversions.

[Cribtop]

Jeff, I think the idea is that those particular outposts are easily taken this early and provide good Japanese multipliers for auto-vic.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Jeff, I think the idea is that those particular outposts are easily taken this early and provide good Japanese multipliers for auto-vic.

And once taken... they seem to be difficult to re-take for the Allies. There are no good springboards nearby. Pago Pago? Not really. Canton Island? Far away, and also not really. Even Norfolk Island can only cover Noumea, really, and it's not big enough on its own to stand up to Noumea. Suva is kind of off on its own in the middle of the ocean, especially if the surrounding small islands are in Japanese hands. Yes, the Allies can just land there and force a fight, but any Japan player with any kind of naval search should have at least a day of warning, if not 2-3 days, of an inbound amphibious force.

This early.... I suppose he could blitz Sydney. That would be a crapload of VPs, though the garrison requirements and the emergency reinforcements may make it not worth his while. It depends on how good he is on the ground and how many LCU surrenders he can force. If he can force enough that the emergency reinforcements simply make it a wash in terms of LCU/air strength, then he's coming out on top, IMO (VPs from destroyed units, plus depleted device pools, plus lost Allied time).

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: offenseman

That is an outstanding point about not hitting PH... hmmmm New Zealand? I agree with cribtop's thoughts about Oz too; Oz certainly cannot be ruled out. Taking Noumea and NZ would cut Oz off form that direction in. Also have no idea what NZ reinforcements that would trigger.
This is a very fun war to watch and discuss. Thanks for letting us dabble in it with you! [:)]

NZ is absolutely a possibility. Long time since someone tried it. Easy to capture and good Japanese multipliers. If I remember correctly the NZ reinforcements wasn´t that big. A couple of BDEs and some armored units. Anyone has the list?

Its I that should thank you guys for reading and contributing with ideas, help and a shoulder to cry on! [:D]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

East Coast of Australia, come in via the Solomons and land south of Brisbane and plan on a quick blitz to Sydney and mop up the other cities later.
KB should be able to sweep the very small RAAF and RAN.

Why concentrate your forces only to take outposts like Suva or Noumea except as diversions.

As Criptop says its the multipliers. There are some serious ones down in SOPAC.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

And once taken... they seem to be difficult to re-take for the Allies. There are no good springboards nearby. Pago Pago? Not really. Canton Island? Far away, and also not really. Even Norfolk Island can only cover Noumea, really, and it's not big enough on its own to stand up to Noumea. Suva is kind of off on its own in the middle of the ocean, especially if the surrounding small islands are in Japanese hands. Yes, the Allies can just land there and force a fight, but any Japan player with any kind of naval search should have at least a day of warning, if not 2-3 days, of an inbound amphibious force.

This early.... I suppose he could blitz Sydney. That would be a crapload of VPs, though the garrison requirements and the emergency reinforcements may make it not worth his while. It depends on how good he is on the ground and how many LCU surrenders he can force. If he can force enough that the emergency reinforcements simply make it a wash in terms of LCU/air strength, then he's coming out on top, IMO (VPs from destroyed units, plus depleted device pools, plus lost Allied time).

Exactly my thought. With the KB in the area it would be almost impossible for the allies to counter land. This would of course open up CENTPAC/NOPAC. But there are no points there to counter the Japanese VPs for bases held in SOPAC. Not even counting smaller bases SOPAC has a multiplier of over 200 for the Japanese. It also removes an allied 50x. Then add some bases in OZ... dangerous!

I wonder if Sydney is in any real danger. I think I will have another 3-5 weeks before he comes. 800 AV and level 4-5 forts in a UH hex. HQs alsmost fully prepped. How much would he need? Around 3000-4000 AV?

[Lokasenna]

Make sure you get a ton of supply there also.

The New Zealand reinforcements are separate from the Australian reinforcements and they are much heavier. Look for Bullwinkle's threads on them. Search for emergency reinforcements, counter invasion forces, etc.

Or you can look them up in the editor...

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] January 2nd and 3rd 1942 [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

More good news in China

------------------------
Singapore/Malaya
------------------------
The Japanese recover quickly and launches two bombardments. The next attack will take the base for sure.

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 2162 troops, 194 guns, 75 vehicles, Assault Value = 1314

Defending force 32302 troops, 365 guns, 220 vehicles, Assault Value = 383

Japanese ground losses:
22 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 13 (2 destroyed, 11 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
18 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

The Imperial Guards also appear at Georgetown of all places...

Ground combat at Georgetown (49,74)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 372 troops, 0 guns, 80 vehicles, Assault Value = 528

Defending force 1926 troops, 15 guns, 7 vehicles, Assault Value = 25

Japanese adjusted assault: 14

Allied adjusted defense: 8

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 0

Combat modifiers
Defender: morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker: fatigue(-)

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 12 (2 destroyed, 10 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
95 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Assaulting units:
14th Tank Regiment
Imperial Guards Division
91st Naval Guard Unit

Defending units:
5/14th Punjab Battalion
3rd SSVF Battalion
Penang Fortress
109th RAF Adv Base Force

Pretty happy to see the ID here and not racing to Burma. Will be at least 2-3 weeks before he can get them there.

------------------------
Burma
------------------------
A Japanese force captures an empty Moulmein on the 2nd.

Ground combat at Moulmein (55,55)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 5373 troops, 23 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 177

Defending force 0 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 0

Japanese adjusted assault: 160

Allied adjusted defense: 1

Japanese assault odds: 160 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Moulmein !!!

Combat modifiers
Attacker:

Assaulting units:
112th Infantry Regiment
55th Engineer Regiment
15th Army

Its not enough to capture Rangoon (400 AV level 3 forts). So instead of pulling out I will remain there for now. Every day the Burma road is open is a good day.

------------------------
Java
------------------------
The Japanese land on Java. Crappy allied Naval search means I miss the chance to hit the transports with troops on. Turns out it didn´t matter as the Dutch air force SUCK at hitting stuff. [:D] Despite getting almost all of the bombers through the CAP this is the only success during the 3rd.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Merak at 48,97

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 4
Ki-43-Ia Oscar x 8

Allied aircraft
Buffalo I x 8
139WH-3 x 21
B-339D x 12
L-212 x 9
Hudson I x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-Ia Oscar: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Buffalo I: 1 destroyed
139WH-3: 5 damaged
B-339D: 3 destroyed
L-212: 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
xAK Eli Maru
xAP Tsingtao Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
xAK Victoria Maru
xAP Kanzyu Maru
xAK Ryoka Maru
xAK Kiyama Maru
xAP Hie Maru
xAP Ukishima Maru
xAK Utide Maru

Allied aircraft losses isn´t that bad with only 14 planes lost. This means I can have another go later on. This is what Tom sent to Java.

Ground combat at Merak (48,97)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 13857 troops, 107 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 423

Defending force 0 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 0

Japanese adjusted assault: 342

Allied adjusted defense: 1

Japanese assault odds: 342 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Merak !!!

Combat modifiers
Attacker: shock(+)

Assaulting units:
2nd Engineer Regiment
16th Infantry Regiment
II./4th Infantry Battalion
I./4th Infantry Battalion
2nd Recon Regiment
24th Infantry Regiment
2nd Field Artillery Regiment

This is far from enough to capture Java. But he will soon have 3 IDs freed up from Singers. Two of them will most likely head to Java. I´ll hold at Batavia for now (300 AV level 3 forts).

------------------------
Philippines
------------------------
Tom turn the air force on Clark field. He has been bombing heavily here for 3 days straight. Bombers are covered by LRCAP from Lingayen. Can´t do anything about that. A small SNLF enter Manila and is quickly evicted.

Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 20500 troops, 232 guns, 25 vehicles, Assault Value = 737

Defending force 1725 troops, 18 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 61

Allied adjusted assault: 464

Japanese adjusted defense: 25

Allied assault odds: 18 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
557 casualties reported
Squads: 17 destroyed, 46 disabled
Non Combat: 14 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 13 (3 destroyed, 10 disabled)
Units retreated 1

Allied ground losses:
368 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 59 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
1st PA Infantry Division
3rd/12th PA Inf Battalion
1st PA Constabulary Regiment
91st PA Infantry Division
31st Infantry Regiment
71st PA Infantry Division
57th PS Infantry Regimental Combat Team
2nd PA Constabulary Regiment
Nichols Field AAF Base Force
Asiatic Fleet
USAFFE
1st USMC AA Battalion
II Philippine Corps
Cavite USN Base Force

Defending units:
Kure 1st SNLF

A mistake on Toms part? Or something else?

------------------------
China
------------------------
I manage to time things perfectly on the road block to Ankang. On the 2nd the Japanese launch another attack here.

Ground combat at 83,45 (near Nanyang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 41566 troops, 464 guns, 115 vehicles, Assault Value = 1239

Defending force 26822 troops, 113 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 716

Japanese adjusted assault: 637

Allied adjusted defense: 466

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), fatigue(-), morale(-)
experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1811 casualties reported
Squads: 14 destroyed, 143 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Guns lost 19 (1 destroyed, 18 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1099 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 112 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 23 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 7 (1 destroyed, 6 disabled)

This result prompts Tom to try again on the 3rd. But I managed to reinforce with another 250 AV Corps racing down from Ankang. They make it in the nick of time! [&o] Paying the PP price to exchange a poor leader in the HQ unit also pays dividends!

Ground combat at 83,45 (near Nanyang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 40340 troops, 465 guns, 115 vehicles, Assault Value = 1122

Defending force 35674 troops, 150 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 888

Japanese adjusted assault: 104

Allied adjusted defense: 1258

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 12

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3422 casualties reported
Squads: 17 destroyed, 380 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 36 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 27 disabled
Guns lost 19 (1 destroyed, 18 disabled)
Vehicles lost 41 (7 destroyed, 34 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
337 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 30 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Should be safe from more attacks here for at least a week. I need reserves here though. But they are lacking and Tom will wear me down eventually.

The Panzer Armee rests on the 2nd but launch another devastating attack on the 3rd. [:(]

Ground combat at 86,43 (near Loyang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 2615 troops, 4 guns, 377 vehicles, Assault Value = 364

Defending force 42489 troops, 160 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 732

Japanese adjusted assault: 80

Allied adjusted defense: 159

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
45 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 10 destroyed, 25 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 68 (51 destroyed, 17 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1359 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 129 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 11 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 10 disabled

At least I´m hitting back some.

Tom also launch across the river toward Yenan. I had left a small rear guard here that is crushed under Corp sized attack.

Ground combat at 89,39 (near Taiyuan)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 39871 troops, 304 guns, 111 vehicles, Assault Value = 1211

Defending force 6332 troops, 43 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 139

Japanese adjusted assault: 1638

Allied adjusted defense: 27

Japanese assault odds: 60 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), fatigue(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
387 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 16 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Allied ground losses:
3844 casualties reported
Squads: 201 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 38 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 6 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 42 (25 destroyed, 17 disabled)
Units retreated 2

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
6th Ind.Mixed Brigade
15th Division
17th Division
8th Ind.Mixed Brigade

Defending units:
19th Chinese Corps
6th Group Army

This will become a dangerous thrust. I don´t really have the troops to plug this gap and terrain along this route is only x2. I desperately need more troops or to shorten the line. But shorting the line means abandoning the approaches to Sian and with that Sian itself.

Moving the British PRU was a good move. Finally got some solid info on Ankang. 2 units, 2300 men and only 17 guns. I need to keep the AF closed though which is hard since the bombers only fly about 20% of the days.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Make sure you get a ton of supply there also.

The New Zealand reinforcements are separate from the Australian reinforcements and they are much heavier. Look for Bullwinkle's threads on them. Search for emergency reinforcements, counter invasion forces, etc.

Or you can look them up in the editor...

Found them. Not that impressive. Certainly not enough to recapture NZ on their own...

2nd NZ Div Cav Regiment arrives at Aden
32nd Army Tank Brigade arrives at Aden
2nd Army Tank Brigade arrives at Canada
4th NZ Brigade arrives at Aden
5th NZ Brigade arrives at Aden
6th NZ Brigade arrives at Aden
28th Maori Battalion arrives at Aden
51st Highland Division arrives at Cape Town
Invasion Mobilstn Supply Convoy arrives at Cape Town

The NZ ID is pretty impressive though with a 90 EXP. And 108 British INF squads are a nice boon!

I´ll try to find some ships to send supplies.

[Bullwinkle58]

I have never viewed any of the emergency reinforcement packages as intended to re-capture their respective homelands. They are intended to supplement other offensive efforts as needed to regain VPs. The NZ lot can go to Oz or India/Burma as the need be. If you survive a NZ take-down it's a long-term resource suck on him. Let him sit and eat groceries.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I have never viewed any of the emergency reinforcement packages as intended to re-capture their respective homelands. They are intended to supplement other offensive efforts as needed to regain VPs. The NZ lot can go to Oz or India/Burma as the need be. If you survive a NZ take-down it's a long-term resource suck on him. Let him sit and eat groceries.

Problem is that I might be forced to retake NZ/SOPAC. Its almost impossible to counter those 50x multipliers with targets elsewhere. Only targets I can think of with high Allied multipliers (that are possible to capture in 42) are Rangoon?

If he grabs SOPAC + OZ and/or NZ thats a lot of multipliers. He is certainly making sure I won´t get any VPs for free. So far I´ve only sunk 6 Japanese ships. He is also using his Air Force in a very safe way. Not much OPS losses or losses overall. I will probably end up having very few allied VPs which means he won´t need "much" for AV.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I have never viewed any of the emergency reinforcement packages as intended to re-capture their respective homelands. They are intended to supplement other offensive efforts as needed to regain VPs. The NZ lot can go to Oz or India/Burma as the need be. If you survive a NZ take-down it's a long-term resource suck on him. Let him sit and eat groceries.

Problem is that I might be forced to retake NZ/SOPAC. Its almost impossible to counter those 50x multipliers with targets elsewhere. Only targets I can think of with high Allied multipliers (that are possible to capture in 42) are Rangoon?

If he grabs SOPAC + OZ and/or NZ thats a lot of multipliers. He is certainly making sure I won´t get any VPs for free. So far I´ve only sunk 6 Japanese ships. He is also using his Air Force in a very safe way. Not much OPS losses or losses overall. I will probably end up having very few allied VPs which means he won´t need "much" for AV.

True, but . . .

To get the multipliers he has to build out NZ. That means lots of supplies and lots of engineers, plus lots of air power to stop you coming close to sink his transports for same. It also takes time. And it means he doesn't have engineers somewhere else. I know it looks black now, but it will look better by the autumn.

That said, NZ is hard for you both to operate around. You have western Oz, or, in a big pinch, CT. Overall it's easier to re-take SOPAC (Suva, New Cal., etc.) than NZ.

As the bonus ends he'll start to supply and re-position his first wave LCUs. You should get some sinkings. I'd also look to NorPac for some expansion. If he challenges you there it's the best place you have to fight in the first half of 1942. Park your carriers out of sight, fall back behind jungle where you can, and dig like crazy. Every day forward is a good day for the Allies.

Personally, I think NZ is unlikely. It's too far forward to be held and withdrawing leaves him very exposed by the time he will have to withdraw. He can cobble together an AV without it.

[offenseman]

Imperial Guard in Georgetown is a big clue. Unless he wants to split 25th Army, 25th Army goes where Imperial Guard goes. As soon as Singers falls he can pick them up from Georgetown and amphib them to Moulmein or wherever up the coast in short order.

[offenseman]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


True, but . . .

To get the multipliers he has to build out NZ. That means lots of supplies and lots of engineers, plus lots of air power to stop you coming close to sink his transports for same. It also takes time. And it means he doesn't have engineers somewhere else. I know it looks black now, but it will look better by the autumn.

Great point because in DBB it is hard for the Japanese to build bases with any alacrity at all. Getting those base sizes past 4 is a challenge.

[Cribtop]

That was a big stop on the road to Anking. He may well get Sian in time, but if he breaks through toward Anking the central plain is threatened and the whole enchilada is up for grabs.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

True, but . . .

To get the multipliers he has to build out NZ. That means lots of supplies and lots of engineers, plus lots of air power to stop you coming close to sink his transports for same. It also takes time. And it means he doesn't have engineers somewhere else. I know it looks black now, but it will look better by the autumn.

That said, NZ is hard for you both to operate around. You have western Oz, or, in a big pinch, CT. Overall it's easier to re-take SOPAC (Suva, New Cal., etc.) than NZ.

As the bonus ends he'll start to supply and re-position his first wave LCUs. You should get some sinkings. I'd also look to NorPac for some expansion. If he challenges you there it's the best place you have to fight in the first half of 1942. Park your carriers out of sight, fall back behind jungle where you can, and dig like crazy. Every day forward is a good day for the Allies.

Personally, I think NZ is unlikely. It's too far forward to be held and withdrawing leaves him very exposed by the time he will have to withdraw. He can cobble together an AV without it.

Thats a very good point that I hadn´t given much consideration. As offensman points out base building is even slower in DBB. I know in my other DBB game it sent my entire schedule off by almost 3 months because I had to wait for bases to be built.

I also think NZ is very unlikely. But I´ll prepare for it as good as I can.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] SOPAC [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

I´m convinced this will be the target for the 3 IDs on their way to Truk. If SIGINT havn´t missed anything this also tells me that at least for now OZ won´t be the target. 3 IDs are nowhere near enough to do something in there.

I think he will grab Suva/Nadi and Noumea in the first attack. If things looks promising he will probably try for Pago Pago too. This early there is no hope for me to defend 3 locations against 3 IDs. I have to give up on two of them. I´ll focus on Pago Pago for now.

While Nadi/Suva is more usable and better bases than Pago Pago it would also mean defending two bases. If I only defend one of them all Tom has to do is to stage LBA on the other base once captured to effectively cut the other base off without using the KB. To cut off Pago Pago he would need to capture the surrounding islands and build AFs (+ a Air HQ) or use the KB.

So for now I´ll focus on Pago Pago. It has a SL of 35.000 and I think I can make it pretty much impossible for Tom to capture if I get another 3-4 weeks. If I have guessed completely wrong the troops at Pago Pago can swiftly be moved forward to Nadi/Suva/Noumea in a couple of weeks.

But frankly I can see no other use for 3 IDs at Truk then to blitz SOPAC. From an AV perspective it also makes perfect sense.