Bill Brings Banzai

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

In addition, with no Japanese carriers in the Pacific, the US carriers (even with their woefully unprepared pilots) can stop just about anything the Japanese try. Wake will not fall. The Japanese will have a difficult time just reinforcing the possessions they have at the beginning of the war.

Sorry Mike, but you're off the mark here. Just because the KB strikes Manila and helps out in the DEI (or a part of it does) doesn't mean that it has vacated the Pacific forevermore. I usually have KB (+/- Kaga) shimmy on down to support the assault on Rabaul, Wake and points South. It can be done readily.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown
So, I will do Manila as opposed to Pearl Harbor. How best to do that? KB in one group to the West of Manila?
Split KB with half East and half West? Must think about this.

I'll keep KB intact and ESE of Luzon, within easy striking distance of Manila and other ports on Luzon. After the requisite bashing of Manila, you can pare off the slower Kaga and have it hook up with your CVL/CVEs in the area for a mobile strike force in the area. These forces, plus your surface fleet, are sufficient to the task of sweeping the Allied chaff out of the way of your invasion convoys.

In the meantime, KB (- Kaga) can escort or precede your usual littany of South Pacific / Wake / Guam / etc. TFs en route to their targets.

[BillBrown]

Well, it looks things have changed. Keith has requested that we continue on. So, no restart. I am getting confused.

[Anachro]

Heat of the moment from SCLS is strong. Perhaps the cooling off period has started.

[jdsrae]

Well, I take back my congratulations then.
Maybe all those clicks setting up mid and late war aircraft weren’t wasted after all!

[BillBrown]

This game is definitely over. I just got this email:


I've been reflecting on the game up until now and come to the conclusion that due to changes in my personal circumstances over the past few weeks and resulting other demands, I don't have the capacity to give this game the time it needs and you, as a decent opponent, the commitment you deserve. Given the work put in to set it up (particularly by you), I've been trying to play on and keep things moving but the result is I've been rushing it and missing key things I should be paying attention to (besides the errors out of ignorance/misunderstanding of the rules). The results are only too evident. I don't think my situation is likely to change in the foreseeable future and I don't think it would be fair on you to try and continue in these circumstances.

So as you might be able to salvage something from this, attached is the end of orders file for the previous turn, in case someone else wants to pick this up. I haven't changed anything, so you should be able to re-run it and get an approximation of what happened. The password is Player2.

Please accept my sincere apologies for how this has worked out. I wish you well in your future games as Japanese player and hope you are able to find an opponent more worthy of you.

Regards

Keith

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

This game is definitely over. I just got this email:


I've been reflecting on the game up until now and come to the conclusion that due to changes in my personal circumstances over the past few weeks and resulting other demands, I don't have the capacity to give this game the time it needs and you, as a decent opponent, the commitment you deserve. Given the work put in to set it up (particularly by you), I've been trying to play on and keep things moving but the result is I've been rushing it and missing key things I should be paying attention to (besides the errors out of ignorance/misunderstanding of the rules). The results are only too evident. I don't think my situation is likely to change in the foreseeable future and I don't think it would be fair on you to try and continue in these circumstances.

So as you might be able to salvage something from this, attached is the end of orders file for the previous turn, in case someone else wants to pick this up. I haven't changed anything, so you should be able to re-run it and get an approximation of what happened. The password is Player2.

Please accept my sincere apologies for how this has worked out. I wish you well in your future games as Japanese player and hope you are able to find an opponent more worthy of you.

Regards

Keith

This game is dead. Congratulations!

[durnedwolf]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

This game is definitely over. I just got this email:


I've been reflecting on the game up until now and come to the conclusion that due to changes in my personal circumstances over the past few weeks and resulting other demands, I don't have the capacity to give this game the time it needs and you, as a decent opponent, the commitment you deserve. Given the work put in to set it up (particularly by you), I've been trying to play on and keep things moving but the result is I've been rushing it and missing key things I should be paying attention to (besides the errors out of ignorance/misunderstanding of the rules). The results are only too evident. I don't think my situation is likely to change in the foreseeable future and I don't think it would be fair on you to try and continue in these circumstances.

So as you might be able to salvage something from this, attached is the end of orders file for the previous turn, in case someone else wants to pick this up. I haven't changed anything, so you should be able to re-run it and get an approximation of what happened. The password is Player2.

Please accept my sincere apologies for how this has worked out. I wish you well in your future games as Japanese player and hope you are able to find an opponent more worthy of you.

Regards

Keith

Congratulations on your win. The nice thing about going through the turn 1 process as Japan is that you gain a greater understanding of the board from the view of Japan; it will make you a better player as the allies. [:)]

I play pretty exclusively as Japan, so as I go through the turn 1 process for a new game I always seem to have picked up a new "trick" that I add/implement into that new first turn. [8D]

[Miller]

Sorry your game ended so early, considering the effort you have to put in during the first couple of weeks in the game. Was your opponent a regular on here and/or an experienced player? Most of the time it's better to hang on for a proven skilled opponent than take the first offer that comes along....

[BillBrown]

ORIGINAL: Miller

Sorry your game ended so early, considering the effort you have to put in during the first couple of weeks in the game. Was your opponent a regular on here and/or an experienced player? Most of the time it's better to hang on for a proven skilled opponent than take the first offer that comes along....

He has been a member for over 5 years and has 6000+ posts.

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

ORIGINAL: Miller

Sorry your game ended so early, considering the effort you have to put in during the first couple of weeks in the game. Was your opponent a regular on here and/or an experienced player? Most of the time it's better to hang on for a proven skilled opponent than take the first offer that comes along....

He has been a member for over 5 years and has 6000+ posts.

Oh right, very bad luck then.

[BillBrown]

As I continue to try and wrap my head around Japanese production, I ran across this tidbit.
Does anyone know if it is correct or not?

It is 30 times more likely that you will repair one point of your 0(30) than that you will repair the one point of your 0(1).

The probability of getting one point repaired on any given day is (total-factory-size)/(days-until-available). If the result is greater than 100% you are guaranteed to repair exactly one point on that day.

[jdsrae]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

As I continue to try and wrap my head around Japanese production, I ran across this tidbit.
Does anyone know if it is correct or not?

It is 30 times more likely that you will repair one point of your 0(30) than that you will repair the one point of your 0(1).

The probability of getting one point repaired on any given day is (total-factory-size)/(days-until-available). If the result is greater than 100% you are guaranteed to repair exactly one point on that day.

I trust that it is so.
I also used that formula in a spreadsheet to forecast factory repairs in my current game and as at Apr 42 it looks to be holding true*.
* performance of individual factories does vary and past performance is no guarantee of future performance yada yada yada...

[BillBrown]

Thank you, another strategy change needed.

[Chickenboy]

I think the probability formula you provided in your quote, Bill, is correct. As are the myriad caveats jdsrae provided.

With regards to this statement:

It is 30 times more likely that you will repair one point of your 0(30) than that you will repair the one point of your 0(1).

I think that accurate with the exception of engine research repair. In this case a 0(30) will (assuming supply blah blah blah) go to 1(29) on the next day. And a 0(1) will go to 1(0) on the next day. I don't think there is any difference for this rate of repair.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I think the probability formula you provided in your quote, Bill, is correct. As are the myriad caveats jdsrae provided.

With regards to this statement:

It is 30 times more likely that you will repair one point of your 0(30) than that you will repair the one point of your 0(1).

I think that accurate with the exception of engine research repair. In this case a 0(30) will (assuming supply blah blah blah) go to 1(29) on the next day. And a 0(1) will go to 1(0) on the next day. I don't think there is any difference for this rate of repair.

That is correct. R&D engine factories repair at a rate of 1 per day regardless of when that engine becomes operational. You can calculate to the day exactly when that engine will become operational assuming you repair the factories to at least 30. Also note that the max is 1% per factory per day with a size 30+ factory. So a fully repaired size 60 factory still gains 1% per day. It's not worth building R&D engine factories to larger than 30.

[Canoerebel]

Hey, Bill, you've sailed through the storm perfectly! You took on Japan and managed to defeat the Allies (all in just over a week, but who's counting?)! Well done.

You put a lot of thought and effort into the game so it must be frustrating to see it end so early....but my goodness, you earned the boasting rights.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Bill, you've sailed through the storm perfectly! You took on Japan and managed to defeat the Allies (all in just over a week, but who's counting?)! Well done.

You put a lot of thought and effort into the game so it must be frustrating to see it end so early....but my goodness, you earned the boasting rights.

+1

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Bill, you've sailed through the storm perfectly! You took on Japan and managed to defeat the Allies (all in just over a week, but who's counting?)! Well done.

You put a lot of thought and effort into the game so it must be frustrating to see it end so early....but my goodness, you earned the boasting rights.

[Bif1961]

Congrats on your first win as the empire. It can be done more than once. The Allies have a ticklish first 1-12 months and then things slowly get better for them. An early big loss to an allied player may end games early, as in this one. The Japanese have their own pressure early but the pummeling is much longer after 1943 for them and many times ends in an early victory for the Allies as the Japanese player throws in the towel. Remember Tojo was removed for the invasion of the Marianas and what it foretold for the Japanese Empire. I hope you can find an opponent to either pick up this game or be willing to be your worthy opponent in a new contest with you again being the evil Empire.