OT - The New Coronavirus

[821Bobo]

ORIGINAL: Zovs

For past couple of days between 100-200 people died in Italy every day from it. 2019 flu dead toll in Italy was 258. So much to your " personal experience and beliefs"

[Zovs]

From this article the mortally rate is only 3.4% and the flu is 1%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... o-03-03-20

[Erik Rutins]

In order to determine what is worth doing, I think you have to weight the potential cost. I think the potential numbers and effects without major mitigation are well summarized here:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/sim ... -covid-19/

The projections from epidemiologists are that without mitigation, 40-70% of the population will be infected. If you look at hospital beds running out within the first month of significant levels of infection, that means that the fatality rate could easily rise to between 5-10%. For a population of 330 million, the result would be that by the time this runs its course without any mitigation, millions would be dead. We're talking way more casualties than we suffered in all the wars of the 20th century. Now extend this across the world and the cost is beyond staggering, likely worse than the Spanish Flu.

For me, this means that against this unseen enemy, we need at least a WWII level of effort across the world and it starts in our own countries. This is not something we can wish away and if we don't take extreme measures and change our assumptions and how we deal with the world until this war is won, we will be the ones on the losing side. I think there is cause for hope given that we have seen free societies able to slow the spread, but we have been thinking half-measures would suffice and life could continue mostly as before and now have a lot of catching up to do. Until we do catch up (if we have the political and civil will at all levels of government and the citizenry) it will get very bad.

This will not really stop until we have a vaccine and we don't even know for sure that a vaccine is possible at this point, we just hope it is. There has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine and these types of viruses mutate very quickly, so it may be a moving target. This argues even more for very strong mitigation and massive efforts to find good therapies. Every country around the world will become a hotspot in the meantime, capable of spreading cases further. I think there is still time to avoid the absolute worst outcome, but it's still going to get very bad and at this point I'd guess it will be years before outbreaks stop popping up in various places around the world given the time it will take for mass vaccinations to spread to even the poorest countries.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong about all this and it turns out that we can get control of this in a month or two without that level of effort, but so far I've been feeling a lot like Cassandra which is not comforting.

Regards,

- Erik

[Erik Rutins]

ORIGINAL: Zovs
From this article the mortally rate is only 3.4% and the flu is 1%.

That is misinformation. Your typical seasonal flu hospitalizes about 1% of those who get it and kills about 0.1%. (Note that your source said "far fewer than 1%") COVID-19 hospitalized 10-15% of those who get it and with excellent hospital care kills 1-4%. We're talking 10-40x worse than the flu and our hospital systems are generally designed to be able to handle about 2-3x the hospitalizations a normal flu season requires, not 10-15x, which means that as hospitals fill up, what's already happened in China and in Italy will happen everywhere. Hospital care will be triaged to those most likely to survive and the mortality rate will rise to be a larger portion of the 10-15% that require hospital care.

This is very far from a normal flu.

[Zovs]

Erik,

Good points.

Its hard because it seems to me that there is misinformation on both sides. I have read some sources that say this is the pandemic which will kill off 95% of the world and others that claim its just flu.

I do see a lot of fear everywhere. It's one thing to use common sense and be prepare and it's another to be on the verge of panic and fear.

Maybe I am just too hopeful...

[Lobster]

I guess we shouldn't inoculate against any diseases and we'll all be ok because of someone's personal experience and beliefs. [8|]

Messages like that are why measles and other once very manageable diseases have made a resurgence.

I would listen to the science and ignore the white noise.

[Zovs]

I have had the measles shot and that is not what I am talking about.

I have not had a flu shot in 29 years and have had the flu once. I have been around and worked with people that get the flu shot every year and wait for it, get the flu every year.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Zovs

I have had the measles shot and that is not what I am talking about.

I have not had a flu shot in 29 years and have had the flu once. I have been around and worked with people that get the flu shot every year and wait for it, get the flu every year.

Some people are lucky. But you have also indicated that you probably have a good diet plan which many of those who get sick every year probably don't. You may have been infected but were able to fight it off without getting any symptoms.

I get the flu shot every year and I might even be due for a pneumonia shot. But I would prefer a shot of 80 proof or better. [:'(]

I have had the measles shot at least once but I had the measles first. [8|]

[Jace11]

I don't know what to say... the numbers are extremely concerning. Health systems will likely crumble under the sheer weight of pneumonia cases if strict and draconian actions are not taken, and the sooner, the better. To continue as normal will make it harder to slow and arrest the spread later. Of all the westernized countries, the US appears to me to be especially vulnerable due to such low testing (to-date), private healthcare, mixed messages from leaders and delaying necessary action to protect the economy. My country isn't doing much better I'm afraid.

It's all in the data. Check the data, read about exponential growth, look at the % of cases that require medical intervention, look at how the # of new cases is increasing every day, then find out how many intensive care beds you have available at any one time at your local hospitals. You can do the math on a calculator...

[Erik Rutins]

ORIGINAL: Zovs
Its hard because it seems to me that there is misinformation on both sides. I have read some sources that say this is the pandemic which will kill off 95% of the world and others that claim its just flu.

I think at this point, some fear (not panic) is a healthy thing. If we take very strong measures, it's very likely we can mitigate this and reduce the spread and death toll in very major ways until a vaccine or better treatment is available. If we blow it off and just let it spread, I think it's likely to be worse than Spanish Flu. This is not an aerosolized Ebola or Bubonic Plague, but it's the worst new disease (in terms of combination of contagiousness and severity) that we've seen in our lifetimes.

Regards,

- Erik

[Red2112]

What really bothers me since this became pandemic is the fact that circa a year ago, it was annouced that in 2020 we would face another world crisis! Conspiracy or not, it´s quite a coincidence and I don´t beleive much in coincidences, especially when goverments are involved.

What I do know is...

People don´t remember what was said a year ago. That´s why abuses keep happening over and over again in history. The overall system does not work, while some might accept that or not, we do need a change for a better quality of life, for everybody and not just for some.

Today my 86 year old mom gave positive, with all the other health issues she already has. Iam waiting to be told what the protocol I have to follow, since I was with her 2 weeks ago.

This is just a slap in the face as to how bad we are doing things in this world!

[RangerJoe]

I don't see how private healthcare makes the US more vulnerable.

If you are in a vulnerable group, take suitable precautions. If you need/want a pneumonia shot then get it. How many of the people who died, died because of a secondary infection?

[TulliusDetritus]

ORIGINAL: Jace11
It's all in the data. Check the data, read about exponential growth, look at the % of cases that require medical intervention, look at how the # of new cases is increasing every day, then find out how many intensive care beds you have available at any one time at your local hospitals. You can do the math on a calculator...

I'm convinced those running the various states know the dilemma. They know this is not a flu but a really serious issue. Xi Jinping was crystal clear: the country was literally at war. China was strong enough (vast resources and leadership + being authoritarian obviously helped) to fight this war at lightning speed and with iron fist.

The other states must follow suit... or say hi to chaos and death. The economic side of things, who really cares now except the sociopaths?

There's a war and this virus is not interested in negotiating.

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: Zovs

I have had the measles shot and that is not what I am talking about.

I have not had a flu shot in 29 years and have had the flu once. I have been around and worked with people that get the flu shot every year and wait for it, get the flu every year.

Okay let's compare this to the flu. If we treat it as the flu like so many think we should do then look at the average global mortality rate of the flu over the last ten years. Multiply by 10 because this is at least ten times more deadly. That's what you will have in dead globally. And that's only IF this is stopped by warm weather. The body bad producers better get busy. For the U.S. alone the nine year average for flu is 37,000. 370,000 dead is not insignificant.

[Saint Ruth]

Here's a good interview (apologies if someone posted it already):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mrPHO-nkVE

An Italian doctor who's saying it's not like a flu, but like a bomb going off, a bomb that keeps on causing casualties, overwhelming the hospitals. As Erik said, with that level of cases, the mortality will increase.

Here in Ireland, they've closed all schools, large gatherings etc, and asked people to work from home.
A bit of panic buying going on.
On the bright side, if I'm stuck at home, I have some airfixes at home, a spitfire and an Me109, that I've been meaning to build... [;)]

[Red2112]

From my first hand experience, it´s quite chaotic because health systems are being overwhelmed. Aside from true cases, then there´s all those paranoid because they have the symptoms of a could be case. In a war, you basically know where the focus of the conflict is, or could be. This is not the case with a virus that goes pandemic.

Schools are also closed, and large (+1000pax) gatherings are suspended, food supplys have also stacked up and you can tell the alarm has gone off because supermarkets are low on main goods stock (milk, caned food, toilet paper etc.)

The biggest issue is the mis-information. Some say one thing, other another because they are not really sure. For example, once you have been in touch with someone infected, when will the virus show up in your body, 10 days ago, 20 days ago from when you were in contact? I don´t see a firm pattern...

As they say, hitting blind in some cases, which is even more alarming!

--

[RangerJoe]

Your immune system fighting back against Covid-19 virus might end up killing you, explained

https://mothership.sg/2020/02/what-happ ... ronavirus/

and from there:

Here’s what coronavirus does to the body
From blood storms to honeycomb lungs, here’s an organ-by-organ look at how COVID-19 harms humans.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scie ... -the-body/

[Red2112]

Some nothren european countrys were the CV has not showed up, have already closed schools etc. That´s a firm prevention plan. I say this because as in the case of Spain, some countrys have reacted a bit late, although knowing there was/is a risk of a spread. Italy thought that it wasent to alarmig when the first cases showed up, now that SHTF they don´t think likewise, and are surprised as to how other countrys are taking there time to react.

[Canoerebel]

There aren't any northern European countries where the virus hasn't shown up. Norway, Sweden, Denmark all have more than 500 cases, etc.

[Red2112]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Your immune system fighting back against Covid-19 virus might end up killing you, explained

https://mothership.sg/2020/02/what-happ ... ronavirus/

and from there:

Here’s what coronavirus does to the body
From blood storms to honeycomb lungs, here’s an organ-by-organ look at how COVID-19 harms humans.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scie ... -the-body/

Yes, that´s what we know it can do and what the accelarated body defences can provoke. That´s not what Iam talking about with regards to mis-information.

It´s the protocol to follow weather you think you have been infected, and how to avoid being infected. Sure, stay home but those who need to get in a bus, use the subway and or live in big cities don´t have it that easy. My mom is in a major hospital in Barcelona were most of the cases are, If I want to see her, I have to go through alot of city people and transportation to get there, aside from all those in the hospital, and that´s just me (one case).