OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version

[JohnDillworth]

This is shameful. We can do better than this.

[Canoerebel]

[&:]

[Admiral DadMan]

Be careful, numbers can say almost anything you want them to.

[Kull]

ORIGINAL: Admiral DadMan

Be careful, numbers can say almost anything you want them to.

“Figures don't lie, but liars sure do figure”

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy



The whole seasonality thing seems to be a red herring - a hope that did not materialize. Brazil is on the equator and always hot - and it is having a devastating outbreak right now (with the sun practically overhead, just short of the summer solstice). Same with the Southern USA -Arizona, Oklahoma, and the Carolinas are on the list of major outbreaks. No help from the heat there.

Meanwhile, the virus keeps mutating and hopefully will become a mild strain that does not kill its hosts ... but I am not counting on it.

How many of those people who catch the virus in those hot climates are in air conditioned areas with little outside air exchange? That needs to be determined.

I just saw that there is a new strain in Chicago.

Well in Brazil's largest city, Sao Paulo, most of the victims are from the slums where they have no electricity. They have the same difficulties with nourishment, lack of clean water, lack of information and lack of access to health care as poor people around the world - so they are hit the hardest.

But the point is, air conditioners do not appear to affect the spread of the virus there. Have you heard of any studies that point to them? If so, that is something we should know.

I have not heard of any studies that point to air conditioning. But with the AC on, how many people open the window and get a nice air flow going? Instead, the building/room is closed off and there is no air exchange diluting any airborne contaminants including viruses.

As far as the poor people with a improper diet and poor sanitation, they are usually at a higher risk of any catching any communicable disease.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

The Baltimore BB team is a mess....not sure how long it will take to come back.

Not until the ownership changes. At this point it is a generational thing, with the elderly majority owner having handed the team over to his sons. It seems that they would rather move the team elsewhere [rumors] than sell it. The shame is that it is local ownership. Not a good reflection on an already cloudy Baltimore.

I'm sure that most of the players would like to play, it is the very strong Players Union that mucks everything up. For example, Mike Mussina took a lower contract in his first renewal in order to stay in Baltimore [the 'hometown discount' as they say]. He was harshly criticized for that by the Players Union, and when he next came up for a contract he moved on to the higher offer at New York [the Evil Empire!lol]. Currently, the Players Union wants all players to hold their ground for full pay. It's some dumbass sh1t.

My father worked someplace where there was a union. The work rules called for an electrician to change a light bulb but he could not bring in a ladder and set it up, that was someone else's job. With that and the business regulations, then some people wonder why companies move overseas.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
But I think that some people are finally get the message "When you are sick, stay home!" How many people would say "I am a good worker, I go to work even when I have a cold or the flu" when they are actually spreading it and should stay home and not share it.

But do you think that US citizens are inclined to go along with rules as long as they aren't inconvenienced? I mean, everybody stayed at home for a couple weeks then some got tired of it and went outside and started 'protesting'. A lot of other countries wouldn't have such a thing, certainly not Russia or China or N. Korea.

Some people, even most people will. But when the information on how it is transmitted and how deadly it is but the rules don't change, then some people get upset and then use their freedom of speech to petition their government for changes. The petition may not be written but rather verbal and visual. Some countries do not allow that so you won't see it there. Or if it does happen, it does not make it to the international news.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's not a competition, but JohnD is just plain wrong. Reliability about numbers from some countries is highly suspects and for most countries marginally uncertain. But where we have people counting under lots of scrutiny (the US, Canada, Oz, Korea, Japan, Europe, etc.) the US is doing fairly well, from a per capita standpoint. If the US should be ashamed, then what does that say about countries that have suffered far greater losses, to this point? We're doing okay under novel circumstances, as are most countries - at least, doing the best we know how to do. Folks have tried it lots of different ways with no clear-cut winner. Since indefinite lockdowns aren't an option, now nearly all countries are trying phased re-opening. There's no shame for the US or any other country, possibly excepting China if the country actually did suppress info that had an affect on transmittal.

so we don't have 4% of the Worlds population and 25% of the death? I'm using Johns Hopkins numbers, which most folks round here found a fairly good barometer. OK, do you have a better source? Johns Hopkins has always been the gold standard for such things and made their bones during the Spanish Flu epidemic but if you have a more credible and reliable source I'm all ears. Are they perfect? no, are hey better than everybody else? Probably. Shall we just compare to Western Europe. That seems reasonable. Look where Germany, France, Italy , Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands and Switzerland to name a few are compared to where they were 6 weeks ago. Now Look at the United States? Who flattened the curve more? What did they do different? They waited just a bit longer to open their economies. Now they are in much better shape than us. Again I ask......What is the plan to get rid of this thing in the United States? What are the better data sources? Are we not 4% off the Worlds population? Did we not suffer a disproportion amount of death compared to other western democracies?

It has been shown here and/or the previous thread the dscrepancies about how the deaths are counted.

If you want the government to be able to shut everything down and everyone follow the dictates of the government, you are free to move to North Korea, China, or wherever you think is so much better. I would post more but that might get this thread locked.

[RangerJoe]

I went to a clinic today, most things are better but one was worse. I attribute that to stress. I do not pig out on celery when I am under stress! Any size bag of cheese curls is a single serving size! I also found out that my provider actually live in the town that I am currently residing in so she told me how far it is to walk certain places. HINT: Get your phat a$$ moving! I did tell her that I want to get a scooter but from a different medical provider.

I walked in the clinic. You have to wear a mask and they will give you a cloth mask to wear, then put it in a bin when you are through. Mine smelled like bleach so I know that they sanitize it. They ask the usual questions like have you been out of the country lately? (I wish, i want to go back to Germany and get some bier!) They also check your temperature and your O2 level. I got there early and then I left early. Then the volunteer driver and I went to a gas station where I paid for his coffee (against the rules, but hey, they were made to be broken!)

[Panjack]

For a thread that is marked "the No Politics Version," the below seem a bit inappropriate. I'm quite willing to engage with people about the functioning and role of unions...and, indeed, would enjoy doing a bit of education on unions...but this is the "No Politics Version."

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653
I'm sure that most of the players would like to play, it is the very strong Players Union that mucks everything up.

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
My father worked someplace where there was a union. The work rules called for an electrician to change a light bulb but he could not bring in a ladder and set it up, that was someone else's job. With that and the business regulations, then some people wonder why companies move overseas.

[JohnDillworth]

Georgia Nurses file a lawsuit alleging they were instructed to fudge Covid Tests.
https://www.scribd.com/document/466159097/Lawsuit-filed-against-Athens-Hospital-by-nurses

[Canoerebel]

I took a quick look at that lawsuit. Your brief post description might (unintentionally) lead readers to believe the allegations involve statewide (or widespread) abuse, calling into question the reliability of information coming from the state.

The allegation involves a small, private business (single story, not a general hospital) in Athens. The allegation is that the private employer gave instructions to create false negative test results to counter previous positives. The number of alleged falsifications is small, involving five patients.

IE, this allegation is limited in scope and of no statistical significance (though a serious matter to those involved, if true).

[fcooke]

The outcome of this thing and how it was 'managed' will likely be an interesting life lesson. My Mom moved back to Ireland 20 years ago and has not filed a US tax return in that time. She does get SS and she did get the stimulus check, even though she has not worked in those 20 years. Hopefully that is not considered political and me just sharing some first hand facts.

I did not get a stimulus check.....[&:]

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I took a quick look at that lawsuit. Your brief post description might (unintentionally) lead readers to believe the allegations involve statewide (or widespread) abuse, calling into question the reliability of information coming from the state.

The allegation involves a small, private business (single story, not a general hospital) in Athens. The allegation is that the private employer gave instructions to create false negative test results to counter previous positives. The number of alleged falsifications is small, involving five patients.

IE, this allegation is limited in scope and of no statistical significance (though a serious matter to those involved, if true).

I took a quick look at that lawsuit. Your brief post description might (unintentionally) lead readers to believe the allegations involve statewide (or widespread) abuse, calling into question the reliability of information coming from the state.

The allegation involves a small, private business (single story, not a general hospital) in Athens. The allegation is that the private employer gave instructions to create false negative test results to counter previous positives. The number of alleged falsifications is small, involving five patients.

IE, this allegation is limited in scope and of no statistical significance (though a serious matter to those involved, if true).

This is not the first accusation I've heard of a hospital, nursing home, state (looking at you Florida)or local government manipulating statistics. I don't believe my post was misleading in any way. The substance backed up the statement. Point is it is not just other countries fudging their states, it is happening here too. I'm just not willing to throw up my hands and say "well, if everybody is playing worth the numbers the numbers are worthless". I believe Johns Hopkins numbers are not perfect, but they are pretty darn good. Arizona is re-closing casinos, California is requiring masks, Apple is re-closing stores, Florida, Texas and Arizona are seeing record high cases. Not sure we are headed in the right direction right now. I know what my state did and I know that, so far, it seems to have worked.

[Canoerebel]

I doubt anyone thinks the numbers anywhere are perfect (I said as much, above). In some places, they are more suspect than others. But the instance you cited is statistically meaningless. It did nothing except suggest to a casual reader that Georgia's numbers are suspect, which isn't true (at least, not based on that instance).

It'll be hard for any widespread fudging of numbers in places where there is scrutiny. Not only would the perpetrators get caught, they'd be crucified in print. Can you imagine what would happen to a governor or to a state health director that said, "Hey, let's play with numbers to make Covid look worse/better than it actually is."? In every case, somebody would blow the whistle. Who would take that chance? It's going to happen here and there, but most instances of bad faith trickery are going to be isolated/limited in scope.

Hey, wherever there are hotspot, those jurisdictions are reacting. Where there aren't, things are proceeding per easing. That's the only way it can work, right?

[RangerJoe]

I went to a restaurant last monday. The staff wore masks, the patrons did not. No problem with that for me. The closest known cases were about 30 kilometers or about 20 miles away. There weren't that many people in the restaurant but it was around 2 pm.

The fudging of numbers in Minnesota was referenced by a state legislator (not being political here) who is also a practicing medical doctor. He said that the pressure was on to call every medical case a Covid-19 case because of the increase in payments from the governments and it was tripled if the patient was put on a ventilator. Also, it is not the number of patients who test positive that is tracked but rather the number of positive tests. One person could be tested 10 times with a positive result and that patient gets counted 10 times.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

For a thread that is marked "the No Politics Version," the below seem a bit inappropriate. I'm quite willing to engage with people about the functioning and role of unions...and, indeed, would enjoy doing a bit of education on unions...but this is the "No Politics Version."

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653
I'm sure that most of the players would like to play, it is the very strong Players Union that mucks everything up.

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
My father worked someplace where there was a union. The work rules called for an electrician to change a light bulb but he could not bring in a ladder and set it up, that was someone else's job. With that and the business regulations, then some people wonder why companies move overseas.

However you can be sure if you challenged that acedotal evidence with some empirical evidence into the benefits of union membership on workers conditions, there would be howls of protest against breaching the "no politics" rule.

Also worth noting post #242 (concerning removals of statues of Confederate generals) has gone unremarked.

A rule for thee, but not for me [8|]

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I doubt anyone thinks the numbers anywhere are perfect (I said as much, above). In some places, they are more suspect than others. But the instance you cited is statistically meaningless. It did nothing except suggest to a casual reader that Georgia's numbers are suspect, which isn't true (at least, not based on that instance).

It'll be hard for any widespread fudging of numbers in places where there is scrutiny. Not only would the perpetrators get caught, they'd be crucified in print. Can you imagine what would happen to a governor or to a state health director that said, "Hey, let's play with numbers to make Covid look worse/better than it actually is."? In every case, somebody would blow the whistle. Who would take that chance? It's going to happen here and there, but most instances of bad faith trickery are going to be isolated/limited in scope.

Hey, wherever there are hotspot, those jurisdictions are reacting. Where there aren't, things are proceeding per easing. That's the only way it can work, right?

I can think of any number of ways to fudge the numbers.

Are the state level statistical publications tied to a specific definition to ensure standardized reporting?

What about assigning location of death? Do you record where fatalities lived, or where they were tested?

Or test numbers. What if you give one person six tests over a week. Have you tested six people, or one? Do you count confirmed false positive/negative results?

The situation in the UK was such that the head of the Office of Statistical Regulations got involved by writing to the health minister. I imagine the US, with the granular state system may even be worse.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
The fudging of numbers in Minnesota was referenced by a state legislator (not being political here) who is also a practicing medical doctor. He said that the pressure was on to call every medical case a Covid-19 case because of the increase in payments from the governments and it was tripled if the patient was put on a ventilator.

FactCheck interviewed the legislator/doctor:

In an interview with FactCheck.org, however, Jensen said he did not think that hospitals were intentionally misclassifying cases for financial reasons.

But that’s how his comments have been widely interpreted and paraded on social media.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/hospi ... ath-count/ (red added to the above)

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

...Also worth noting post #242 (concerning removals of statues of Confederate generals) has gone unremarked.

A rule for thee, but not for me [8|]

I'm concerned only with "political" postings I otherwise would respond to. It's better I address comments (I think provoking) in this way, instead of either not coming here or engaging in a back-and-forth in ways that doesn't benefit the forum.

In my imperfect way, I'm just trying to keep things here civil...for my own benefit, of course!