Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A))

[Lowpe]

Ouch, I accidentally left a Buffalo squadron on CAP that I moved...over Rangoon. Oscars had a field day among the them.

[Lowpe]

Philippines and Marianas

[Lowpe]

I think Japan is coming for the islands looking to establish a complete blockade of India...

However, he could as easily be just coming for Ceylon which will be stripped of all fuel and supply by tomorrow at the latest.

Or even a fast landing at Pegu/Diamond Harbor etc.

[Lowpe]

Pretty impressive speed...too bad their torpedoes have a high dud rate.

Anyhow, need to use them well to merit sending them over here.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

The Spear!

You and others called it - a full court press into the IO and presumably an attack on India/Ceylon. For now, it looks like hunting the British fleet and merchies - no amphibs yet. I think you are also right that he will gather troops from Java after it is conquered to go to India, but he might be tempted to send them to take Palembang first. That would give you a couple of weeks delay.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Philippines and Marianas

Either he is expecting the Guam AF to go to level 2 soon or he is just using it as a transit point between the HI and the Marshalls or Carolines.

[Mahrgell]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Ouch, I accidentally left a Buffalo squadron on CAP that I moved...over Rangoon. Oscars had a field day among the them.

Japanese lost 9 ship VP, Allies lost only 8 ship VP, according to the Bureau of Propaganda.
The tide has turned, you are now clearly winning! [:D]

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

You and others called it - a full court press into the IO and presumably an attack on India/Ceylon. For now, it looks like hunting the British fleet and merchies - no amphibs yet. I think you are also right that he will gather troops from Java after it is conquered to go to India, but he might be tempted to send them to take Palembang first. That would give you a couple of weeks delay.

I would be 100%shocked if this gaggle of shipping didn't have troops with it. All the times I have been invaded it is rare that I spot troop carrying ships.

This is far, far too much to send merely hunting British Fleet.

[Encircled]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

You and others called it - a full court press into the IO and presumably an attack on India/Ceylon. For now, it looks like hunting the British fleet and merchies - no amphibs yet. I think you are also right that he will gather troops from Java after it is conquered to go to India, but he might be tempted to send them to take Palembang first. That would give you a couple of weeks delay.

I would be 100%shocked if this gaggle of shipping didn't have troops with it. All the times I have been invaded it is rare that I spot troop carrying ships.

This is far, far too much to send merely hunting British Fleet.

On the other side though, he could be just trying to stop reinforcements reaching Palembang/Singapore.

Its still a very risky move to go for India with the DEI not yet secure.

(but I do agree with your assessment!)

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

You and others called it - a full court press into the IO and presumably an attack on India/Ceylon. For now, it looks like hunting the British fleet and merchies - no amphibs yet. I think you are also right that he will gather troops from Java after it is conquered to go to India, but he might be tempted to send them to take Palembang first. That would give you a couple of weeks delay.

I would be 100%shocked if this gaggle of shipping didn't have troops with it. All the times I have been invaded it is rare that I spot troop carrying ships.

This is far, far too much to send merely hunting British Fleet.

Of course there are troops embarked. The only sound reason for capturing both bases on either side of the Sunda Strait, and then not immediately moving forward in force to both Palembang and Batavia is that with Singapore still in Allied hands (and Medan) the troops are earmarked for action elsewhere and fleet movement operational secrecy is maximised by sailing through the Sunda Strait.

Japan capturing Ceylon is not going to come close to compensate for losing Saipan/Guam/Tinian. Nor compensate for 4Es attacking from a fully supplied Luzon.

Alfred

[Lowpe]

Turn is away...finally. Wedding this week, lots of family time and the wife hurt her back.

Anyway: Lots of little strikes again, getting aggressive with British fleet, perhaps too aggressive.

Looks like maybe a Palembang invasion is scheduled, not sure since I spotted BB in the task force and they can't get there, but we are planning on it...

Bought out the HQc III Indian and flying it up to Burma. Along with a Command HQ it should really bolster the defense.

[RangerJoe]

Well, maybe it is time to brush off your massage skills or hire a nice, pretty, young one [:D] - for your wife! [:-]

As far as weddings go, men should get married on their birthdays. If it was they day that they were born, it might as well be the day that they die. So long, free wheeling bachelorhood!

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
... Wedding this week, lots of family time and the wife hurt her back.

Man, that's a tad harsh. Your first wife only hurt her back and you already plan another wedding? [:D] Best wishes and quick recovery to her!

ORIGINAL: Alfred
Japan capturing Ceylon is not going to come close to compensate for losing Saipan/Guam/Tinian. Nor compensate for 4Es attacking from a fully supplied Luzon.

Seriously, I don't see how Marianas capture in the beginning of 42 is a noticeable blow to Japan. Them can be easily recaptured, there is ample time even after the bonus amphibious period. More like free VPs from the Allied LCUs involved, and anything else committed to a futile defence

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
... Wedding this week, lots of family time and the wife hurt her back.

Man, that's a tad harsh. Your first wife only hurt her back and you already plan another wedding? [:D] Best wishes and quick recovery to her!

ORIGINAL: Alfred
Japan capturing Ceylon is not going to come close to compensate for losing Saipan/Guam/Tinian. Nor compensate for 4Es attacking from a fully supplied Luzon.

Seriously, I don't see how Marianas capture in the beginning of 42 is a noticeable blow to Japan. Them can be easily recaptured, there is ample time even after the bonus amphibious period. More like free VPs from the Allied LCUs involved, and anything else committed to a futile defence

The amphibious bonus will be expired so the operations to recapture them will be much more costly.

[Alfred]

Japan does not have the assets to recapture the Marianas and win in India. Period.

Japanese land assets have purposely not be committed to date in any meaningful manner. They aren't there moving to capture Singapore. They aren't within sight of Palembang. They aren't on Java or Luzon in overwhelming force. Which means they are being husbanded for some other operation. That operation is clearly not those mentioned for the simple reason that if they were meant to be so deployed then valuable time has been wasted for no net benefit.

The husbanded assets are clearly for a Hail Mary operation aimed at auto victory. Lowpe's search indicates the target is India. A couple of Japanese divisions is not going to achieve much in India. Japan will need a substantial land commitment and the presence of the KB. The Bay of Bengal is a fair distance away from the Marianas and the Marianas can not be recaptured without the full support of the KB. Japan either proceeds with the Indian operation and losses the Marianas, or it has to severely weaken the Indian operation in order to attempt to recapture the Marianas. All this takes time, which Japan does not possess.

If Japan had followed a standard plan of securing Luzon, Singapore, Palembang and Java in a timely manner, it would have assets close enough to the Marianas to probably reinforce them in time to prevent their loss, and if not certainly blockade them and ensure their prompt recapture. At the very least Japanese assets will need to be retasked at a cost of time. An Allied move on the Marianas (with foloow up to Luzon) from Hawaii/West Coast is the sole interior lines of communication available to the Allies which carries a significant threat to Japan's position at this stage of the war. All other Allied movements are too time consuming. Japan, by moving to India has temporarily lost the interior lines.

To date, all the evidence points to a greedy Japan which is disregarding basic military concepts.

Alfred

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: Alfred
Japan does not have the assets to recapture the Marianas and win in India. Period.

Hardly any Japan ever won in India, even with mature JFB playing against a newbie like in Rader vs GreyJoy. Too much territory, too far away from Home Islands, too close to Aden. And by a win I mean capturing Bombay and Karachi of course, anything else is fleeting. I would be surprised if Lowpe's opponent is aiming at something truly exceptional with this opposition, and not the usual Calcutta industry grabbing secured by Ceylon and other islands. I also doubt he's counting on Lowpe allowing his Indian assets into a major encirclement. What remains is a regular well-trodden route which does not require each and every LCU Japan has. What njp72 is doing with bypassing seems to me more like an insurance for a quick capture and probably cutting off some Burma/Chinese guys in the process.

I tried the Karachi rush several times, bypassing everything. It's hard to pull off even against the hapless AI which does not understand the importance of the base and cannot trouble you in the bypassed areas. And the price of miscalculation is steep with all the modern emergency reinforcements coming in.

Marianas on the other hand.. How much does Japan need to recapture? Pretty modest for 42 - dominance in the CV air and bombardments to burn off Allied supply, all achievable with a fraction of assets and there is ample time too. Japan does not need much of its surface navy for India action anyway. No atolls in Marianas either.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

Seriously, I don't see how Marianas capture in the beginning of 42 is a noticeable blow to Japan. Them can be easily recaptured, there is ample time even after the bonus amphibious period. More like free VPs from the Allied LCUs involved, and anything else committed to a futile defence

In, and by itself, I agree with you to a degree. But what can I do with it? Stay tuned.

[RangerJoe]

The annoyance factor would be high. The Marianas move inhibits movement to Truk so the move protects SoPac and Eastern Australia. It can also allow reinforcements and supplies to the Philippines. With a move to Iwo Jima, it makes it worse for the Japanese.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: GetAssista
Marianas on the other hand.. How much does Japan need to recapture? Pretty modest for 42 - dominance in the CV air and bombardments to burn off Allied supply, all achievable with a fraction of assets and there is ample time too. Japan does not need much of its surface navy for India action anyway. No atolls in Marianas either.

I think you guys are looking at it the wrong way or like I am going to drop tons of troops in the Marianas. If I am abandoning Ceylon, what makes you think I would take and attempt to hold all of the Marianas or earlier even attempt to defend Socotra? Well, maybe my posts led you to think that...but therein lies the problems with most AFBs, I think.



There is never ample time for Japan. [;)]

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: GetAssista
Marianas on the other hand.. How much does Japan need to recapture? Pretty modest for 42 - dominance in the CV air and bombardments to burn off Allied supply, all achievable with a fraction of assets and there is ample time too. Japan does not need much of its surface navy for India action anyway. No atolls in Marianas either.

I think you guys are looking at it the wrong way or like I am going to drop tons of troops in the Marianas. If I am abandoning Ceylon, what makes you think I would take and attempt to hold all of the Marianas or earlier even attempt to defend Socotra? Well, maybe my posts led you to think that...but therein lies the problems with most AFBs, I think.

Wait... you mean you will not come to the people of the Marianas as a liberator from the imperial oppression, to stay there, defend them and lead them to a new life? I thought only Japanese aggressors capture with a plan to plunder and destroy and then skedaddle when the heat rises. O tempora, o mores... where has the spirit gone [:D]