USN air combat data from Office of Naval Intelligence

Gary Grigsby's strategic level wargame covering the entire War in the Pacific from 1941 to 1945 or beyond.

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HMSWarspite
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Post by HMSWarspite »

Drongo wrote:This is another 4 x 10 set of test results using the current WitP Alpha.

Same situation as before except -
36 Buffalo Is vs 36 A6M2s.
I was curious as to the difference a marked inferior a/c would make, so here are the stats from this one. In deference to our Aussie readers, I will type slowly, and leave out the long words ;)

Overall results (JN:US) Means 2.4:4.7, SD 1.3:2.6. Same type of distribution as before, and loss % is 6.7%:13%. Interestingly the Zero losses have dropped AND the F2A is up. Zero=2/3 of losses against P40E, F2A losses up 30%. Not an unreasonable shift?

Attacker: defender is mean 3.1:4. This seems to be a reverse from before. The breakdown in losses is JN Att:def 2.25:2.5, US att:def 4:5.45. So both sides lost more in defence this time!

Outliers are less interesting: 1US only (at 11, vs +2SD of 10) (JN have 2 @5, which is on +2SD)

Distribution of victories: 28Jn, 6 US 6 draw (IJN 16 when attacking!)

Best /worst results (from Jn view) : 11/0, 1/4 quite a swing!

So:conclusions.

Still happy with overall loss results. Worried by the swing to attacker advantage. Although there may be a reason for the difference? Assume say, the system gives the defender the tactical advantage (i.e. plus to the results), but the attacker gets to decide whether to engage/break off more (CAP has to defend until the attackers decide to go home?). When equal, the defender tactical advantage means they win an otherwise equal contest. When any plane is much superior, they just need to engage,and the defensive bonus is not enough to make much difference. The Zeros get in to contact with more F2A when attacking, therefore more get shot down? The F2A uses the same abilty to get OUT of combat? Thoughts as to the game anyone? What about the history/RL?

Alternatively, the samples are not big enough (possible).

Alternatively, there are other factors we haven't thought of
or the system has shortcomings. We need to explore further!
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Mr.Frag
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Post by Mr.Frag »

Hey Drongo, when running those tests, did the Allied base unit have Radar? Always wondered if that kicks into the results :D
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Tristanjohn
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Post by Tristanjohn »

TheElf wrote:"The Wildcat was not suited for the fight at Guadalcanal. It had a bunch of weight in the back that we could have dispensed with very nicely. It was beefed up for carrier landings in the rear and we didn't need it. But there wasn't anything to be done in that regard. So because of this weight we'd work like hell to climb to 23,000-24,000 feet. At this altitude when you make a turn you lose 1,000 feet, and it's very easy to stall out. In theory the F4F had a higher service ceiling but not in practice. You'd look up and there see the Japs at 30,000 looking right down your gazoo. A real fun time. You couldn't get that bird much higher than 24,000: not you, not Jesus, nobody. The bird wouldn't go any higher." - Roger Haberman VMF-121, Guadalcanal. As quoted by Bergerud, Fire in the Sky

I think altitude SHOULD be factored into the resoultion of A/A combat. It is of PRIMARY concern to all pilots. Speed is life, and altitude relative to the enemy determines the speed with which you enter the fight. I hope the idea of AI Altitude selection has gone the way of the Dodo in WiTP.
I most certainly agree. Altitude needs to be in any air model which treats/examines/whatever combat at this/these UV/WitP scale(s).

The trick is where in sequence as a modifier does it plug in and how best to implement it.

If you've followed this thread (or some other one--I can't keep track any longer) post by post you might recall a small reference I made to altitude, more or less in passing, with regard to UV's errant modeling of the so-called "P-39 >10,000-feet altitude penalty" vis-a-vis the model's perception (again, most errant) of how the A6M (all variants) handles above 11,000 feet itself.

Do you recall?

Well, that's just one example of where altitude is not only handled "well" but handled "wongly well" as it were and while the modeling itself is pretty much backward and totally screwed up the concept is worthwhile and I think if it were implemented correctly would add much to the combat model's feel--that is to say, ambiance.

Unfortunately, as are so many areas treated the Japanese bias kicked in during development, poor research was conducted in any event, and the unhappy case was that the model has grossly mistaken reality of that situation.

I mention this here for the reason you bothered to cite your anecdotal evidence above. I don't dispute this pilot's narrative but I point out, just for example, how easy it is to take just this sort of "evidence" out of its proper context and then run away with it not only no wiser than before but actually more confused than you started.

What this pilot didn't know (and might possibly never be able to appreciate) is that at 30,000 feet (if in fact any "Zero" ever flew that high, something I doubt) the Japanese planes in question were about as threatening as a pack of wounded doves. A Zero in almost any kind of "dive" was not threatening to begin with except as far as any relative altitude advantage seems to confer or at least seems to imply upon the attacker the inherent edge of being able (in theory at least) to get his sights on an opponent from an unopposed and possibly unsuspected angle.

But a "Zero" diving with effect from 30,000 feet? From that altitude (again, assuming those planes were that high in actuality) the "Zero" would be wobbling along in a wounded-like manner itself--it's inadequate prop just wouldn't bite into that thin air sufficiently to give it much power, its handling capabilities would be greatly reduced and the plane was so light in weight and flimsily built to begin with that dives in any form were hardly its strength but rather a maneuver of certain weakness which I"m sure Japanese pilots resorted to mostly as Plan G or Plan H.

From that altitude those "Zeroes," no matter how threatening they might have appeared to American pilots in Wildcats at the time, were actually of very little threat to them at all, a fact learned and exploited later on by Marine and Navy pilots not just in Wildcats but even more so, of course, when the Corsair finally arrived in service. In fact, from that altitude those "Zeroes" would have been doing well to float by those Wildcats much less "dive" and in any event those Wildcats could have, with relative ease, dived out of harm's way themselves at much greater speed then those "Zeroes" could have pursued with from behind.

I'm not saying Wildcat pilots wanted an altitude disadvantage or that "Zeroes" on top didn't look like a threat. I am saying in this particular case, and always assuming the pilot in question has his facts straight, that those Wildcats weren't in much danger: and please witness that this pilot did indeed live to "tell this frightening tale." :)

This pilot you've quoted, while I'm sure he is in earnest, is also apparently a pilot who survived that action, no minor detail I am quick to point out, as did, I further hasten to add, most pilots of Wildcats. (That is to say, while most Japanese aviators of the war were killed, most Allied pilots survived in spite of any number of anecdotal accounts almost idientical to the one you've cited today.

Again: relative altitude advantage was very much a Wildcat pilot's friend but an inverse relationship of the aircraft in question did not at the altitude specified benefit the Japanese very much at all. In fact, for japanese pilots to be that high shows only that they were in actuality "caught out of position" and implies their flight leader wasn't very well versed with regard to proper handling of the "Zero" vis-a-vis the Wildcat, which leads us back to the issue of relative "training" and "experience" values assigned by the model: just for instance, the implication in this case might be drawn that these Japanese pilots had "learned" in China that their "Zeroes" were better off starting an action from 30,000 feet, and for all I know this would be a true statement--I haven't research the air war in China and have no clear idea of what happened there in this respect; regardless, what these Japanese pilots had apparently not yet learned was that this sort of tactical approach in combat versus the American Wildcat was a mistake.

And so on with regard to the model.

I can easily imagine the development team running away like a pack of Mad Hatters with such a story and right away errantly modeling WitP to reflect yet another bogus and phantom "Zero" altitude advantage, this time not at anything over 10,000 feet as it is now vis-a-vis the poor little P-39 but, say, anything over 25,000 feet versus the Wildcat.

Of course that would represent an irresponsiblle approach to modeling, but this model and the overall mentality of this forum's "voice" specializes in that. :)

I'm not sure if any of that's particulalrly clear and I've skipped through it fairly fast so perhaps you'll forgive me as I'm more or less just hanging around here on a Sunday morning sipping my first mug of java and waiting for the Packer game to start. :)
As this is my first post since your arrival TristanJohn, let me first say that I tend to agree with much of what you say in spirit. If we differ in opinion on a matter I hope that you'll still treat my opinion with the respect I feel it deserves.
Always, with this proviso: please do not resort to ad hominem in any of its various despicable forms, or use of vulgarity, and please also do your best to treat me to informed opinion (i.e. responsibly researched), not just something you've picked out of the thin air for the reason it "sounds" good to you.

The ad hominem and vulgarity I'll treat with all the respect it most certainly never deserves, the poorly-researched stuff I'll respond to according to how well you've treated me in a personal sense prior. (That is, if you're not a "bad guy" I won't scream at you for posting something "idiotic" though I might very well point out some error, if I can find one, and ask you to think about it some more. Of course, if you can poinht out similar flaws in my work then feel free to use the same approach with me.)

Sound fair?

The big thing, though, is that I expect a forum to be a place where people keep their minds open and a place one might come to without having to field a succession of childish and churlish remarks. Once that line is crossed I feel no compunction whatsoever ito respond in like manner, or for that matter worse still, action I am perfectly capable of, when I feel such treatment is warranted.
Even though you tend to throw hand grenades at people all over this forum, and generally berate people whom I respect, I still see the value in your information when based in fact, and your opinion when based...well in your opinion.
Well, thanks for the compliment but the bitter truth is that no matter how factual my cases or persuasive my style if in fact the audience stands mute, for whatever reason, then any and all work comitted to here must be of waste.

Mdiehl has made this point to me more than once and while I've resisted his plea in practice I do not disagree with his cool assessment philosophically--that is, in terms of real-world group dynamics and how these actually affect matters.

I very much do believe Mdiehl's approach to be useless as a practicable teaching method, though, even harmful, as in principle it encourages redundancy of faulty thought which wastes everyone's time at a minimum and potentially can cause complete breakdown, beyond repair, in the minds of the students. But we digress. :)

In general, and in "defense" of my approach on that score, for better or worse I just don't care what people in this forum think. My opinion is that this forum as a collective is just hopeless. It's ruled in general by group think (and worse) and so the level of discourse must be, as life experience teaches, low. Aware of this coming in I did not enter the forum entertaining any hope of "convincing" the forum at large of anything. Instead, my purpose was to employ the forum's boards as mere vehicles to reach Gary and the rest of the development team (which as I understand it is Matrix Games) more directly with my message.
I, as I think everyone else here, would really like to see WiTP be done right. There ARE issues with the A/A model, and not just as it occurs with F4F v. A6M combat, but Allied Medium bomber invulnerability, 2nd Gen Japanese designs v. 2nd Gen Allied designs, Large force raids etc.
Well of course. The entire model has been botched for going on some twenty years now or whatever it's actually been. This isn't Gary's first game on the subject. :)

If you happen to have the old Pacific War manual handy thumb back to its database listings of aircraft combat values and flight characteristics and see for yourself that these very same misconstrued inter-relationships between Japanes and Allied planes that I've harped on for the past couple of months exist in that game, too.

None of this is new. It is all old. And I've mentioned that several times, I'm sure I have, but you see this forum doesn't want to address that reality, it only wants to keep everything around it happy and like some drunken club where "facts" and "reason" don't hold nearly as much value as does "strength of voice."

But again, I knew all this coming in and that's primarily why I don't give a hoot what "they" think. If I can manage to get Gary to throw me a bone or two (no matter the reason--it needn't be for the "right" reason) then fine, my time won't have been completely wasted. Should Gary choose not to listen to reason then my time will have been wasted but that's nothing new to me, either. But I'm willing to give it a shot.
Regarding Historical Accuracy, I think its important to remind everyone that this is a game, not a day for day, encounter for encounter recreation of WWII. If it were I'd skip the game and watch Victory at Sea, cuz I know how all my games would end! My point is, as has already been mentioned by Mogami in a previous thread, From turn 1 to the last turn you should not see the exact combat loss ratios that were experienced. Particularly if the players learn from the mistakes of the actual participants. If the Japanese player commands a resource surplus, then his training commands should not suffer from low flight time and excessively subpar replacement pilots. If said player also never fights the BO Midway and preserves his elite pilot cadre into 1944-45 when 2nd gen A/C such as George, Frank, and Tojo become available then the War in that paricular game should look much different, both statistically, and Strategically.
There's some validity in that, though only so much as I see it. Each side only had so much to work with and there's little good point entitling a game an "historical simulation" on the one hand only to then portray matters ingame in some other more fantastic way.

In any event, UV was botched to such a degree that no reasonable case might be made that it "gets it mainly right" for the truth is it "gets it mainly wrong"" and doesn't even do that in a manner that feels right most of the time.
To those of you who would reply with the expected "Axisfanboy" accusations, let me ask you this, because I don't think its been asked this directly. I'd really appreciate a response from everyone here. What is wrong with a Japanese player doing well, if he plays his game well?
Nothing at all.
If an intelligent, historically versed player avoids the classic Japanese mistakes, what is wrong with him having success? I'm talking about managing his resources, pilots, ships, Ground forces, supply and making infrormed tactical decisions that create ahistorical results. I he can't do that what is the point of this great venture?
Good point. Though the gigantic disparity between the two sides' war potentialities argues without possibility of appeal against a Japanese victory per se. That's just the way it was (and thank you very much God).

But yes, extraordinarily intelligent play might serve to coax another year out of the position, say, for our inspired Japanese player. When I play the Japanese side in PW that's exactly what I aim to do and consider that a victory of sorts when I'm successful--and I am usually not. :)
Don't get me wrong I do not want to play a game that is riddled with statistically incorrect data. But once we get the stats right, and they're proven to be right thru testing in a controlled fashion, the players should have the greatest impact on the results. All too often though I get the feeling that many of the strongly allied-based players don't want to see anything short of an exact recreation of the war, if not on an accelerated scale. If this game is played well it should look nothing like the real thing.
I'm sorry if you feel that might best reflect my position, and should it I would blame the signal/noise ratio in this forum zoo for that. Still, a careful and honest review of my writing should reveal something else.

Indeed, while most of the talk in the forum has revolved around the game's air-combat module the fact is Gary's system would benfit more greatly still were it revamped from the ground up. The naval module isn't any stronger than the air, the land-combat system is a joke, and what I consider to be the most important component of the whole ball of wax, the logistics model, doesn't even provide the player with a way to load and unload ships and planes in an intelligent manner.

Hello!

I mean tell me if you can what's right? :)

What amazes me is that with all these problems, some of which strike me as irresolvable for all practical purpose, Gary's game system remains at bottom something loads of fun to mess around with. (Part of that's due to his genius as a game designer, though he isn't hurt by the fact there's nothing much out there in the genre for gamers to turn to as an alternative worth talking about.)
That ended up being longer than I expected.
No problem. If Matrix has one thing in utter abundance then this would seem to be virtual space. :)
P.S. My incredible wife just gave me my anniversary present(literally 15 min ago). Wondered if anyone out there had heard of it. Its Called "Genda's Blade: Japan's Squadron of Aces, 343 Kokutai" by Henry Sakaida & Koji Takaki, classic Publications. Its a beautiful book 205p. lots of pics and stats? Anyone interested? She ordered it out of the latest issue of Tailhook magazine.

Does this make me an Axis fanboy? ;)
Probably not, Elf, but I intend to keep a sharp eye on you anyway. :)

Apropos your wife's gift to you I happened to leaf through James Bradley's Fly Boys last night in a bookshop in Santa Cruz while browsing with my wife and almost bought it--but I've too much around here at the moment with pages marked for intended research on various subjects that I haven't time to get to, so I passed. Besides, I'm not sure I want to read a sad story just now (however "uplifting" it might be in the end).
Regarding Frank Jack Fletcher: They should have named an oiler after him instead. -- Irrelevant
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Post by HMSWarspite »

Tristanjohn wrote:I most certainly agree. Altitude needs to be in any air model which treats/examines/whatever combat at this/these UV/WitP scale(s).

[snip]
What this pilot didn't know (and might possibly never be able to appreciate) is that at 30,000 feet (if in fact any "Zero" ever flew that high, something I doubt) the Japanese planes in question were about as threatening as a pack of wounded doves. A Zero in almost any kind of "dive" was not threatening to begin with except as far as any relative altitude advantage seems to confer or at least seems to imply upon the attacker the inherent edge of being able (in theory at least) to get his sights on an opponent from an unopposed and possibly unsuspected angle.
What do you base this paragraph on? The published ceiling for the Zero is over 35000ft. Now, no one is going to deny that it loses it's superb roll/turn performance above medium alt, but to question that "if in fact any "Zero" ever flew that high, something I doubt", I think you need a source. They have quite a few miles to get up there remember. Also, I what about the pilot's view that 24000ft was the effective ceiling of his Wildcat?
But a "Zero" diving with effect from 30,000 feet? From that altitude (again, assuming those planes were that high in actuality) the "Zero" would be wobbling along in a wounded-like manner itself--it's inadequate prop just wouldn't bite into that thin air sufficiently to give it much power, its handling capabilities would be greatly reduced and the plane was so light in weight and flimsily built to begin with that dives in any form were hardly its strength but rather a maneuver of certain weakness which I"m sure Japanese pilots resorted to mostly as Plan G or Plan H.
What is this obsession with 'props biting' that you have? The laws of physics being what they are, diving an a/c tends to make it accelerate all by itself. Whilst (as acknowledged above) the Zero has lost a lot of its advantages up there, what makes you thing it wasn't just as capable of taking advantage of a minutes loss of concentration by a US pilot? I addition, he seems to think the F4F wasn't handling well up there. Sure, if seen coming, and F4F could evade easily I would imaging, and dive away for sure. This does not mean you can ignore them. A high Zero would certainly inhibit the F4F from doing anything else,l like hunting bombers. The point about altitude is that you get to chose when and if to engage.
From that altitude those "Zeroes," no matter how threatening they might have appeared to American pilots in Wildcats at the time, were actually of very little threat to them at all, a fact learned and exploited later on by Marine and Navy pilots not just in Wildcats but even more so, of course, when the Corsair finally arrived in service. In fact, from that altitude those "Zeroes" would have been doing well to float by those Wildcats much less "dive" and in any event those Wildcats could have, with relative ease, dived out of harm's way themselves at much greater speed then those "Zeroes" could have pursued with from behind.
All things are relative: a IJN 20mm in the cockpit can spoil your day just as well as anyone elses.
I'm not saying WIldcat pilots wanted an altitude disadvantage or that "Zeroes" on top didn't look like a threat. I am saying in this particular case, and always assuming the pilot in question has his facts straight, that those Wildcats weren't in much danger: and please witness that this pilot did indeed live to "tell this frightening tale." :)
I haven't re-read it, but IIRC the post didn't imply the pilot thought he was in any danger: he was using the incident to comment of the poor climb performance and heavy weight of the F4F.
This pilot you've quoted, while I'm sure he is in earnest, is also apparently a pilot who survived that action, no minor detail I am quick to point out, as did, I further hasten to add, most pilots of Wildcats. (That is to say, while most Japanese aviators of the war were killed, most Allied pilots survived in spite of any number of anecdotal accounts almost idientical to the one you've cited today.

I hate to point this out, but you are in danger of simplifying your discussion to a bad case of 1=1! All accounts that we have are by pilots who survived the action! (Unless you know a good medium?) In addition, most pilots survive most actions. So this does not really tell us anything about the relative survival chances of F4F pilots generally, or in this case. And as I said, who said he thought he was in trouble - to me, it reads much more like "The F4F is not a good a/c, I spend all day flogging my way up to 24000ft, where it handles like a pig, and the Zero is still a mile above me"!
I'm not sure if any of that's clear and perhaps you'll forgive me as I'm more or less just hanging around here on a Sunday morning sipping my first mug of java and waiting for the Packer game to start. :)
Good luck with the game
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Tristanjohn
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Post by Tristanjohn »

Chiteng wrote:Elf,

There is no telling 'why' certain people expouse certain things.
For me for example, I cant see how the Germans did so well in 1941 when they
invaded the USSR. Their tanks were totally outclassed and outnumbered.
Yet they did quite well (for a while)
One assumes..that it was training and crew skill. However when you get into
subjective areas like 'training and crew skill' it seems that ALOT of people
get very uncomfortable. If you cant quantify it, then I guess it makes them
unhappy. Yet as Napoleon pointed out, subjective elements DO greatly
effect war.

So there is this drive on this board to minimize the effect of training and crew skill. You see it all the time. This USA plane should always beat this Jap plane
no matter what. The minimalists strike again. The drive to minimize the
subjective.

This reminds me of the Syrians in 1973 complaining that the Israeli had better tanks. Yet the Israeli insisted that they could easily have swapped equipment
across the board, and gotten exactly the same results.
I suspect they are correct.

To win a battle, the winners have to WANT to win.
Your points re the training and, more importantly I believe, tactical doctrine as it was actually applied in the field (after all, this is where "training" kicks in and either proves itself or not) are well taken, Chiteng.

Arriving at a concensus of what "training" and whatnot actually means in terms of modifiers (in game terms) is another question altogether.

At the moment the system basically gives higher scores in both areas to "Zeroes" over Wildcatas and P-40s and P-39s and anything else Allied at the start of the war and the results speak for themselves: ahistoricity.

So you tell me where the model errs. Something in there ain't right.
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Post by Luskan »

Chiteng wrote:
There is no telling 'why' certain people expouse certain things.
For me for example, I cant see how the Germans did so well in 1941 when they
invaded the USSR. Their tanks were totally outclassed and outnumbered.
Yet they did quite well (for a while)
One assumes..that it was training and crew skill. However when you get into
subjective areas like 'training and crew skill' it seems that ALOT of people
get very uncomfortable. If you cant quantify it, then I guess it makes them
unhappy. Yet as Napoleon pointed out, subjective elements DO greatly
effect war.

So there is this drive on this board to minimize the effect of training and crew skill. You see it all the time. This USA plane should always beat this Jap plane
no matter what. The minimalists strike again. The drive to minimize the
subjective.

This reminds me of the Syrians in 1973 complaining that the Israeli had better tanks. Yet the Israeli insisted that they could easily have swapped equipment
across the board, and gotten exactly the same results.
I suspect they are correct.

To win a battle, the winners have to WANT to win.
Excellent post. Especially since I agree totally with the point ;)

TJ: I don't want to get involved in this argument/mud slinging just yet because I have a different perspective on the game - I'd much prefer to sacrifice historical accuracy for better gameplay necause of the completely subjective nature of the former (have one degree in history and all I learnt was that truth is the most elusive fish in the ocean).

However I would like to throw a question at you.

If parts of this game are so wrong - and since I very much doubt the game/editor will ship in any form that allows you to change anything except the variables (as in not letting you change the formulas) to suit yourself, are you still willing to buy it?
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Post by Nikademus »

Tristanjohn wrote:What this pilot didn't know (and might possibly never be able to appreciate) is that at 30,000 feet (if in fact any "Zero" ever flew that high, something I doubt) the Japanese planes in question were about as threatening as a pack of wounded doves. A Zero in almost any kind of "dive" was not threatening to begin with except as far as any relative altitude advantage seems to confer or at least seems to imply upon the attacker the inherent edge of being able (in theory at least) to get his sights on an opponent from an unopposed and possibly unsuspected angle.
3 B-17 crews believed as you did on 25Dec 41

Believing that the Zero could be outpreformed by their supercharged mounts at high altitude they attempted to evade Zero pursuit by climbing to 28,000 feet.

The Zeros came after them anyway and manged to badly damage 1 17, knocking out an engine, killing one gunner and badly wounding two more. After that they proceeded to turn a 2nd of the 3 17's into what was described as "a sieve". The plane made it back but was an operational write off afterwords.

Not threatening eh? hmmm

:)
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Wrong

Post by mogami »

"At the moment the system basically gives higher scores in both areas to "Zeroes" over Wildcatas and P-40s and P-39s and anything else Allied at the start of the war and the results speak for themselves: ahistoricity.

So you tell me where the model errs. Something in there ain't right."

Hi, At the moment the system rates both IJN and USN trained pilots at 60.
USAAF and USMC pilots are rated higher then IJA pilots. The IJN gets 10 trained pilots per month the IJA gets 20.
The USN gets 40 the USAAF gets 80 the USMC gets 40 (Japan gets 30 trained pilots per month USA gets 160 other allied nations combined get 148 so total are Japan 30 Allied 308.

All Japanese pilots are not rated above all Allied pilots. The USN begins with many pilots rated higher then current IJN pilots. The majority of all non USN allied pilots are rated higher then the majority of all IJA pilots.

The Allies have many fine leaders to place in command of groups. There is no reason to leave a poor leader in command. I would say it is much easer for ther allied player to replace a poor leader then was actually the case.

Personally I believe after turn 1 the Allies are almost a sure bet to have improved over history results. (This means the Japanese are almost certain to fail to match their historic results)

Did you see the post by Dan Oskar where he compared the historic starting number of flying hours for pilots? The 'model' seems to give more credit to allied training then Japanese combat experience. (Since the majority of IJN pilots are no better or worse then the majority of USN pilots who have half the flying hours and none of the combat)
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Post by Tristanjohn »

Luskan wrote:Excellent post. Especially since I agree totally with the point ;)

TJ: I don't want to get involved in this argument/mud slinging just yet because I have a different perspective on the game - I'd much prefer to sacrifice historical accuracy for better gameplay necause of the completely subjective nature of the former (have one degree in history and all I learnt was that truth is the most elusive fish in the ocean).

However I would like to throw a question at you.

If parts of this game are so wrong - and since I very much doubt the game/editor will ship in any form that allows you to change anything except the variables (as in not letting you change the formulas) to suit yourself, are you still willing to buy it?
Most definitely! Gary's games are always good value (for my buck) no matter how I bitch re their "accuracy" in some respects. Plus, as I've noted, in this genre there just isn't anything else on the subject, so it isn't as if I'd have to choose between two (assuming money were an issue, and it is not).

I have a question for you: why do you hold, as elusive as you find "truth" to be in a historical sense, that games of this kind are necessarily "more fun" if presently inaccurately? (Or maybe I've misconstrued your intended meaning, and if so please correct me.)

That is, whatever the historical "truth" might be in your view or anyone else's I can very well point to specific inaccuracies per se within the model which strongly suggest that whatever that historical truth must have actually been the model itself, by definition, couldn't possibly get it "right."
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Post by Tristanjohn »

Tristanjohn wrote:"At the moment the system basically gives higher scores in both areas to "Zeroes" over Wildcatas and P-40s and P-39s and anything else Allied at the start of the war and the results speak for themselves: ahistoricity.

So you tell me where the model errs. Something in there ain't right."
Mogami wrote:Hi, At the moment the system rates both IJN and USN trained pilots at 60.
USAAF and USMC pilots are rated higher then IJA pilots. The IJN gets 10 trained pilots per month the IJA gets 20.
The USN gets 40 the USAAF gets 80 the USMC gets 40 (Japan gets 30 trained pilots per month USA gets 160 other allied nations combined get 148 so total are Japan 30 Allied 308.

All Japanese pilots are not rated above all Allied pilots. The USN begins with many pilots rated higher then current IJN pilots. The majority of all non USN allied pilots are rated higher then the majority of all IJA pilots.

The Allies have many fine leaders to place in command of groups. There is no reason to leave a poor leader in command. I would say it is much easer for ther allied player to replace a poor leader then was actually the case.

Personally I believe after turn 1 the Allies are almost a sure bet to have improved over history results. (This means the Japanese are almost certain to fail to match their historic results)

Did you see the post by Dan Oskar where he compared the historic starting number of flying hours for pilots? The 'model' seems to give more credit to allied training then Japanese combat experience. (Since the majority of IJN pilots are no better or worse then the majority of USN pilots who have half the flying hours and none of the combat)
Good news, bad news.

If it's the case the Allies enjoy some advantage (perceived by you, apparently from your play with the alpha version to date) of an ahistorical nature shortly into play then the WitP system would effectively be heading in a different but no less errant direction than does UV. The Allies did enjoy advantage as the war grinded on with re to attrition in general but the effects of this process were not felt (to a degree where it might be readily demonstrated by results or one side or the other's change in operational management of the war) until the spring of 1943 (or thereabouts, if I had to arbitrarily pick an approximate date).

I am not pro-Allied in my stance or arguments, Mogami, but pro-historicity. I hope you see, recognize and appreciate that distinction.

No, I've missed Oskar's post (or can't recall it just now) but I'll go back and try to read his remarks again for better understanding this time. (There's a lot going on in here and it's all too possbile to miss an interestring point amidst the silliness.)
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Post by Tristanjohn »

Nikademus wrote:3 B-17 crews believed as you did on 25Dec 41

Believing that the Zero could be outpreformed by their supercharged mounts at high altitude they attempted to evade Zero pursuit by climbing to 28,000 feet.

The Zeros came after them anyway and manged to badly damage 1 17, knocking out an engine, killing one gunner and badly wounding two more. After that they proceeded to turn a 2nd of the 3 17's into what was described as "a sieve". The plane made it back but was an operational write off afterwords.

Not threatening eh? hmmm

:)
This is typical of the sort of half-baked "logic" which leads to faulty modeling such as UV in the first place.

The salient lesson to be derived from my point posted above is not that a "Zero" could not under any circumstance do damge from above 25,000 feet but rather that at altitudes above 25,000 feet the "Zero" was not, to anyone familiar with the aeronautical physics involved, in what one might term its "sweet zone" of operational effectiveness.

A "Zero's" best altitude was under 11,000 feet (at air speeds somewhere under 250 mph) and this only versus enemy aircraft c1941 and before. After the advent of improved Allied (especially American) aircraft technology the very concept of a "sweet zone" when it comes to "Zero" performance becomes laughable.

They were deathtraps.
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Post by mogami »

Hi, There were pilots would scored over 80 kills in Zeros.

It is my impression that over Guadalcanal many USN/USMC pilots were shot down but survived and flew again (most of the Aces were shot down at least once) However any Japanese shot down was gone. This was the real advantage. If the aircombat was 1-1 in aircraft it was more often 0-1 in pilots.


Marion Carl said the Wildcat would make a good training aircraft. He was an ace who flew Wildcats. (He shot down several Japanese aces and was himself shot down by Japanese aces-he lived )
Has anyone any account of USN/USMC ace who was not shot down at least once? (or landed aircraft that was total write off) How many Japanese aces were shot down more then 1 time?

If the very best USN/USMC pilots were shot down by Zero's then some one is wrong when they say the aircraft and pilots are over rated. It's not just 1 or 2 USN/USMC pilots who were also aces that were shot down, it is almost everyone that flew against Zero between May 1942 and May 1943 that had a bad encounter. So I would say that just making USN/USMC pilots survive more often when shotdown would make everything more correct.
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Post by Nikademus »

Tristanjohn wrote:This is typical of the sort of half-baked "logic" which leads to faulty modeling such as UV in the first place.

The salient lesson to be derived from my point posted above is not that a "Zero" could not under any circumstance do damge from above 25,000 feet but rather that at altitudes above 25,000 feet the "Zero" was not, to anyone familiar with the aeronautical physics involved, in what one might term its "sweet zone" of operational effectiveness.

A "Zero's" best altitude was under 11,000 feet (at air speeds somewhere under 250 mph) and this only versus enemy aircraft c1941 and before. After the advent of improved Allied (especially American) aircraft technology the very concept of a "sweet zone" when it comes to "Zero" performance becomes laughable.

They were deathtraps.

This is an example of evasion. TJ solicits the opinion that the Zero might never have even fought at high altitude and even if it did, would have been next to useless in order to throw into question the argument of another poster

I provide an example that disproves his theory and here provide the source: Fortress against the Sun by Gene Slaecker who cites the report of one Lt Schaetzel of the 19BG of which his B-17 was one that got shot up by these imaginary and useless Zeros. (i can provide you with the serial # of the plane if you'd like :) ) In reply the info gets ignored and we get treated to another blast of hot air from TJ

The salient lesson to be learned here is that you dont know what you are talking about and cant admit when you are wrong.

:D
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Midway

Post by mogami »

Hi, The landbased USMC/USN fighters at Midway (19xBuffalo 9xF4F) engaged the Japanese at 14k only 10 survived and of these only 2 would ever fly again.

Marion Carl tried to evade by climbing but the Zeros were gaining on him so he dived away. (he shot down 2 Zero and 2 Val during the action)
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Post by mogami »

Tristanjohn wrote:Good news, bad news.

If it's the case the Allies enjoy some advantage (perceived by you, apparently from your play with the alpha version to date) of an ahistorical nature shortly into play then the WitP system would effectively be heading in a different but no less errant direction than does UV. The Allies did enjoy advantage as the war grinded on with re to attrition in general but the effects of this process were not felt (to a degree where it might be readily demonstrated by results or one side or the other's change in operational management of the war) until the spring of 1943 (or thereabouts, if I had to arbitrarily pick an approximate date).

I am not pro-Allied in my stance or arguments, Mogami, but pro-historicity. I hope you see, recognize and appreciate that distinction.

No, I've missed Oskar's post (or can't recall it just now) but I'll go back and try to read his remarks again for better understanding this time. (There's a lot going on in here and it's all too possbile to miss an interestring point amidst the silliness.)

Hi, What does this mean? You posted the game rated Japanese pilots higher in both skill and tactics. I posted this was not true. I don't think the numbers of pilots in pools and rates new ones arrive will effect Japanese before mid-42 (depending on loss rates) It will never effect Allies (they always have enough replacements) But the above quoted post makes no sense to me.

The Japanese Navy and US Navy are rated exactly the same. This dispite the Japanese Navy being involved in combat operations for approx 4 years prior to the outbreak of War with the United Nations. There are a number of on map Japanese pilots with high ratings. There are a number of USN pilots with equally high numbers. (There are IJN groups with avg exp of 55 which is below the trained pilot rating) (There are no such USN/USMC groups)

This is all in response to your claim the model currently over rates the Japanese. and under rates the USN/Allied pilots.
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Post by Tristanjohn »

Mogami wrote:Hi, What does this mean? You posted the game rated Japanese pilots higher in both skill and tactics. I posted this was not true. I don't think the numbers of pilots in pools and rates new ones arrive will effect Japanese before mid-42 (depending on loss rates) It will never effect Allies (they always have enough replacements) But the above quoted post makes no sense to me.

The Japanese Navy and US Navy are rated exactly the same. This dispite the Japanese Navy being involved in combat operations for approx 4 years prior to the outbreak of War with the United Nations. There are a number of on map Japanese pilots with high ratings. There are a number of USN pilots with equally high numbers. (There are IJN groups with avg exp of 55 which is below the trained pilot rating) (There are no such USN/USMC groups)

This is all in response to your claim the model currently over rates the Japanese. and under rates the USN/Allied pilots.
It ought to be perfectly obvious that what I write is based on my experience with the UV model and my criticism of this model with respect to what I expect from WitP is born out of my belief (this based on previous experience with Gary's games of this kind) that the mistakes found in the earlier game will be carried over to the next game in the series.

If and when this is demonstrated not to be the case I'm overjoyed.

Please write about something useful, Mogami, and stop this nonsense.
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THERE'S A USEFULL THOUGHT...

Post by Mike Scholl »

The term "sweet zone" that TJ used in a recent post offers some possibilities.
We've all heard again and again that the basic air-to-air system can not be
replaced at this point in development. It can only be "adjusted". Here is a
possible "adjustment".

Virtually every aircraft has a "best" altitude, by design or happenstance. The
point at which all of it's design charicteristics "mesh" overall. Normally it's part
of the design. Few carrier missions required altitudes over 18,000 feet. Not
that carrier planes couldn't fly higher, but medium and low altitudes was where
the great majority of use would take place, and that (coupled with the need
to operate from a carrier) controlled the design process. Different requirements
than those of a B-17 or a P-47, both of which were designed around High
Altitude service.

If you assume that the Aircraft performance stats quoted as base in the
game come from it's "best" altitude (and I think that's fair---what manufacturer
quotes his "worst" features in releasing the specs?), then even a fairly symple
algorithm added to the system could "trim" those specs for every x000 feet
above or below it's "sweet spot" the aircraft was operating. Performances
generally fell away faster going up than down, so the number represented by
"x" would be different depending on the direction of the change. But it would
be a relatively simple way of introducing some needed variation in the specs.

You could also look into a "bounce bonus" for the first round of combat if
one side had a significant edge in altitude. Probably have to couple that with
a "spotting modifier"---if you're too far above the enemy you might not see
them in time to intercept.

I'm not claiming these are GREAT ideas. I'd just like to see them "kicked
around" the forum a bit to see if there is anything great in them. At least they
would make the altitude more significant. An dthey might be a way to deal
with some of the anomolies that keep cropping up.
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Post by Daniel Oskar »

It seems the discussion has headed toward altitude and its effect on performance.I'd just like to throw out a couple of things. An aircraft's "service ceiling" is by definition the highest altitude at which it can maintain a rate of climb of 500' per minute. Its not the highest altitude at which you are able to conduct ACM. Secondly, at high altitudes sudden violent manuvering is likely to lead to an accelerated stall. What I'm trying to get at is you're not going to see any furballs with piston powered aircraft at 30,000'.
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Post by Chiteng »

Tristanjohn wrote:Your points re the training and, more importantly I believe, tactical doctrine as it was actually applied in the field (after all, this is where "training" kicks in and either proves itself or not) are well taken, Chiteng.

Arriving at a concensus of what "training" and whatnot actually means in terms of modifiers (in game terms) is another question altogether.

At the moment the system basically gives higher scores in both areas to "Zeroes" over Wildcatas and P-40s and P-39s and anything else Allied at the start of the war and the results speak for themselves: ahistoricity.

So you tell me where the model errs. Something in there ain't right.
I dont see that as an 'evil' that needs correction. Even if we assumed you were
totally right(and I dont) what is the effect?

The effect would be that the Allied forces cannot effctively contest any specific
point that the Japs could bring this weapon system to bear. Operationaly
that would mean a staggered conquest of the SRA and Phillipines while the
Allies struggle to get better planes.

In game terms....if the Japs are unable to conquer the SRA for whatever reason,
the game is OVER.

That is the bottom line. I understand that people like you and Mdiehl would love
to see the Japs halted by some carefully based 'wall' of allied aircraft,
but what you DONT see, or possibly dont care about is that this makes a
POOR GAME. How often does someone want to play a side that cant even
keep up with historical conquests?

To me the whole point of the game is to PLAY it, not cold-deck some unwitting
opponent.

To me Gary's games are information systems. Your claim is that the information
is somehow 'wrong' but that is not at all proven. The reality is that the Japs secured the SRA relatively quickly. It isnt a case of the allies not resisting, they did resist, and they lost.

There are OTHER issues that I do see as evils that need correction, but I fear
that it wont be addressed until after the game is already published. That is sad.
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Post by Mr.Frag »

The reality is that the Japs secured the SRA relatively quickly. It isnt a case of the allies not resisting, they did resist, and they lost.
Face it Chiteng, some folks will not be happy until history is repealed. I was going through my stuff documenting the entire opening act of the war, and it is simple fact that (a) The Allies got caught with their pants down and (b) they were a couple of months behind in getting ready for the war. The planes were still crated up in ships when the bombs started falling. Those are the facts.

If these Allied Fanboys get there way, Clark Field will be the end of Japan's conquests, having been stopped and turned around by the mighty Americans and General Mac will not even have to pack his bags :rolleyes:
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